Autumn 2011

[Eugene]

Way too early to be thinking of winter or even autumn, summer hasn't officially started yet either June 1st or the solstice.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Could well be a snowless calender year here. Didn't get any snow beyond the end of December last year, so all it needs is to not snow in November and December which shouldn't be too hard.

Last December was amazing, driving here on Sunday 19th from Wales, the temp didn't get above -2C apart from going over the Sever Bridge when it reached 0C. I wish we could have more winter days like that, but i'm sure most people couldn't think of anything much worse, boo to them!

[summer blizzard]

I am actually thinking quite positive for winter.

By Autumn, we will almost certainly be in a -QBO phase which will strengthen through winter. This factor alone bodes well for stratospheric warming through the November-March period.

The El Nino/La Nina phase is more complex. Allied to a strengthening -QBO, a weakening La Nina such as the current one, would be a very good outcome. This would also apply to a weak El Nino. The other option however is that La Nina is multiyear event (likely given the strength of the last one), a strengthening La Nina would lead to a very changeable winter with the La Nina and QBO teleconnections clashing.

In summary, we need a weakening weak La Nina/strengthening weak El Nino. The next best is that we stay as close to neutral as possible. A strong La Nina would give a February 2011 'blowtorch' senario. A strong El Nino would give us a very wet winter.

(options above are all allied to a strengthening -QBO)

In summary, looking good at this stage although plenty of hurdles to jump.

[Gavin P]

Historically, weak La Nina is by far the best ENSO state for cold winter scenarios.

[damianslaw]

Far too early for me to start thinking of winter - however there are signs of a wet end to summer/wet start to autumn with quite an active hurricane season. A weakening La Nina can only be a good thing during the autumn for prospects for a cold winter - we don't want it to suddenly rev into gear again after a dip during autumn.

[Ruzzi]

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

What do you guys make of this??

[cold snap]

http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

What do you guys make of this??

Intresting for sure.

Good early signs already.great read.

[Nick L]

I swear we hear this wheeled out every year?

[95 Degrees]

Words like dire and worse aren't words I'd use for cold snowy winters, more like paradise, season acting like it should,cold! a bit early to really get excited though.

[Ruzzi]

Yeah that's true, but this guy has a great reputation. He's predicted the last 3 winters down to a tee and he made forecasts last winter that totally contrasted the forecasts made by NASA, and this guy ended up being right and NASA admitted they go it wrong.

He also made forecasts this winter that conflicted with the Met Office and many other weather organisations, and yet again he was correct in predicting the Dire cold spells way before the other forecasters latched onto it.

He also does all his forecasts voluntary, and doesn't get paid for it so he's got nothing to gain by ramping etc.

Will be interesting to see how things develop I guess

Words like dire and worse aren't words I'd use for cold snowy winters, more like paradise, season acting like it should,cold! a bit early to really get excited though.

Yeah I agree actually, I love the cold. snowy winters. On the plus side, My area usually gets pretty hard hit at some point every winter. I suppose being 600 feet above sea level helps too.

[snow raven]

Words like dire and worse aren't words I'd use for cold snowy winters, more like paradise, season acting like it should,cold! a bit early to really get excited though.

I'm in 2 minds about this. Whilst I agree with the whole cold, snowy winter and a hark back to the good old days (Which is great for a week of the UK being snow bound, not so brilliant the longer it goes on for) I wouldnt call it Paradise for most of the UK who needs to function and get around. Snowy winters from childhood were great. But that is just it - we were children back then. As an adult, I'm not quite finding them as Magical as I remember!!

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, there is a dire winter ahead, but it should be pretty much over by Thursday.

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm in 2 minds about this. Whilst I agree with the whole cold, snowy winter and a hark back to the good old days (Which is great for a week of the UK being snow bound, not so brilliant the longer it goes on for) I wouldnt call it Paradise for most of the UK who needs to function and get around. Snowy winters from childhood were great. But that is just it - we were children back then. As an adult, I'm not quite finding them as Magical as I remember!!

I do, i find it absolutely magical. I really dont care, i just crave one magical winter where the 62,669,672,635 are all closed meaning i am completely cut off for weeks. please give me one

[Lake District Blizzard]

Has anyone also seen PWS's extreme long range forecast?

They are going for January and February 2012 to be 'Substantially colder than Average'

with december 2011 to be slightly colder than average

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Frontier-Cast---Extreme-Long-Range.php

[Ruzzi]

I'm in 2 minds about this. Whilst I agree with the whole cold, snowy winter and a hark back to the good old days (Which is great for a week of the UK being snow bound, not so brilliant the longer it goes on for) I wouldnt call it Paradise for most of the UK who needs to function and get around. Snowy winters from childhood were great. But that is just it - we were children back then. As an adult, I'm not quite finding them as Magical as I remember!!

Yeah, good point. It seems to be getting harder as the years go on (especially the last few winters).

2008/2009 - 16 consecutive days of lying snow

2009/2010 - 32 consecutive days of lying snow

2010/2011 - 27 consecutive days of lying snow

There were times this winter when the snow in my garden reached a level depth of 26 inches.

Quite remarkable to be honest

Has anyone also seen PWS's extreme long range forecast?

They are going for January and February 2012 to be 'Substantially colder than Average'

with december 2011 to be slightly colder than average

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php

Now that's very interesting. Anything even remotely cold would be better than january and febuary of this winter though.

[Optimus Prime]

Has anyone also seen PWS's extreme long range forecast?

They are going for January and February 2012 to be 'Substantially colder than Average'

with december 2011 to be slightly colder than average

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php

Atleast they haven't gone for a forecast like last year which was for 'hell frozen over' or something like that. It's pretty sad, just a ball game for these guys.

[Ruzzi]

Atleast they haven't gone for a forecast like last year which was for 'hell frozen over' or something like that. It's pretty sad, just a ball game for these guys.

Yeah, it was quite comical reading the forecast they issued for last winter.

To be honest, PWS's track record ain't that good so I'm not getting too excited just yet

[TEITS]

As an adult, I'm not quite finding them as Magical as I remember!!

Exactly the same as me.

Im known as the biggest ramper on here and yet after recent winters im beginning to think another 62/63 would be my worst nightmare. I remember one particular day last Dec when the max temps didn't reach above -6C and to be honest I found it most uncomfortable despite my central heating being on.

My ideal winter would be a Jan 87 cold spell followed by a week of mild weather. This alternating throughout the winter. What I don't want is weeks of continuous cold weather with no respite i.e 62/63.

Interesting forecast and worryingly some very valid points!

[Ruzzi]

Exactly the same as me.

Im known as the biggest ramper on here and yet after recent winters im beginning to think another 62/63 would be my worst nightmare. I remember one particular day last Dec when the max temps didn't reach above -6C and to be honest I found it most uncomfortable despite my central heating being on.

My ideal winter would be a Jan 87 cold spell followed by a week of mild weather. This alternating throughout the winter. What I don't want is weeks of continuous cold weather with no respite i.e 62/63.

Interesting forecast and worryingly some very valid points!

I think it would be amazing to re-live the winter of 62/63. A dream come true for me, however I would much rather see some monster snowfalls rather than prolonged cold.

[Thundery wintry showers]

My preference has always been for alternating mild and cold spells rather than continuous cold. As it happens, I've been finding that my tolerance for prolonged cold spells is a lot greater than I'd expected- the only times I've found myself hoping for temporary thaws have been when the snow turned to solid ice. But the problem there is that the more prolonged a cold spell is, the more likely it is that the snow will eventually end up as solid ice. From that perspective the Tyne and Wear area got lucky during December 2010, and I have to admit that I enjoyed that month more than any other December that I've lived through, despite the negative impacts of its severity.

I don't like hearing cold snowy weather described as "dire" when it's trying to speak for all of us (as opposed to a person expressing an opinion, in which case I have no objection). However the same argument can apply to "paradise" or "good". If I was forecasting a really cold snowy winter and was speaking for the general population I'd probably throw in terms like "severe" and "harsh" in there, as those terms warn of significant negative impacts but don't have the same sort of value judgement attachment (i.e. "I love severe weather" doesn't sound as perverse as "I love dire weather").

[SP1986]

It becomes rather 'easy' to forecast a cold winter, when 3 have preceded it. I think that's what many Meteorological organisations are likely to factor.

That said I think if we have an indifferent summer then I do think we could have a substantially cold winter in 2011-12.

[TEITS]

I think it would be amazing to re-live the winter of 62/63. A dream come true for me, however I would much rather see some monster snowfalls rather than prolonged cold.

This is why a repeat of a Jan 87 type cold spell would be ideal for me, incredible snowfalls but only lasting around a week. The 62/63 winter might of seen plenty of snowfalls but there was also prolonged periods of just freezing temps and plenty of sunshine.

As a child I loved the cold winters of the 1980s but now I have to worry about paying my own heating bills!

Just add that I found last winter annoying if I was honest. As TWS will agree E Anglia was dreadfully unlucky and I still remember vivdly all those snow showers hitting Lincs and missing my location.

[Ruzzi]

My preference has always been for alternating mild and cold spells rather than continuous cold. As it happens, I've been finding that my tolerance for prolonged cold spells is a lot greater than I'd expected- the only times I've found myself hoping for temporary thaws have been when the snow turned to solid ice. But the problem there is that the more prolonged a cold spell is, the more likely it is that the snow will eventually end up as solid ice. From that perspective the Tyne and Wear area got lucky during December 2010, and I have to admit that I enjoyed that month more than any other December that I've lived through, despite the negative impacts of its severity.

I don't like hearing cold snowy weather described as "dire" when it's trying to speak for all of us (as opposed to a person expressing an opinion, in which case I have no objection). However the same argument can apply to "paradise" or "good". If I was forecasting a really cold snowy winter and was speaking for the general population I'd probably throw in terms like "severe" and "harsh" in there, as those terms warn of significant negative impacts but don't have the same sort of value judgement attachment (i.e. "I love severe weather" doesn't sound as perverse as "I love dire weather").

Yeah point taken, "severe" would have been better. I just said 'dire' because I meant a bad winter i.e cold and snowy. Personally I would class this as an AWESOME winter, however many people regard a bad/dire winter as being cold and snowy.

I know the feeling with the ice though, by the 4th of december this winter, we had a 2 inch thick layer of ice under the foot of snow. I remember clearing the driveway and lifting the ice in slab-sized sections that were a few inches thick.

It becomes rather 'easy' to forecast a cold winter, when 3 have preceded it. I think that's what many Meteorological organisations are likely to factor.

That said I think if we have an indifferent summer then I do think we could have a substantially cold winter in 2011-12.

Yeah I agree, however surely the law of averages much creep into their minds at some point, suggesting a possibly average or even milder than average winter . . .

[Nick L]

I think 3 months of Dec 2010 would annoy me, extremely cold yes but not much snowfall. Not complaining about the extreme temperatures we got though, was great experiencing getting up to do my paper round in -9c, blue skies and a couple of inches of powdery snow on the ground.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just add that I found last winter annoying if I was honest. As TWS will agree E Anglia was dreadfully unlucky and I still remember vivdly all those snow showers hitting Lincs and missing my location.

Indeed- it was all going so well from my perspective until the 29th November and then, after a warmer sleety interlude that partially thawed the snow and turned it to solid ice, Norwich stayed in a dry corridor for three consecutive days (despite the GFS/NMM/NAE going for snow showers moving down into Norfolk 12-18 hours ahead with each successive run).

Upon reflection, I didn't enjoy December 2010 more than any other December that I've lived through- it's more that I'm sure I would have if I'd spent the entire month at Cleadon rather than spending the first half of it in Norwich.