Autumn 2011

[Wales123098]

Exciting times. Whats causing the gulf stream slow down? Global warming causing fresh water in to the ocean slowing down and disrupting the gulf stream? My geog teacher last winter before the 2010 snow said that she expects cold winters to become more of an occurrence in her opinion. Last year was awesome, had snow late November with temperatures down to -10c in November which is incredible for south Wales then December seeing temperatures sub -15c here just north of the M4 by Cardiff with 16inches of snow, did get very annoying when Christmas hit mind, we had no presents! As my mum is a carer for the elderly too she had to walk several miles in arctic temperatures to get to the elderly or she wouldn't get paid! Il suggest she goes and trades in the VW touran for a 4x4 Looking forward to it to be honest, Im glad the warm up in the second half of last winter as I was going to New York but Im not going away next winter so snow all the way please:)

We had one hell of a streamer here in down over Cardiff and Rhondda Cynon Taff valleys in December hoping for more of that:_)

Edited June 5, 2011 by Wales123098

[Cheshire Freeze]

Aaaahhhh there is something majestic about the landscape blanketed in snow; it's so so wonderful. Even though the last couple of winters have had bitingly cold periods, they have lacked consistency in the cold that such years as 62/63 etc bought with them. Also, although the minima and day maximas have been impressive at times during the last two seasons, snowfall in this particular location has been mediocre to say the least. In the 09/10 season we were twenty miles too far south for the streamer that gave 20cm to Manchester and in the winter season just gone it was Lincolnshire and the north east that really copped it. Our maximum snow depth over the last two years in Crewe has been about 5-7cm. I remember 1995? I was 7 at the time but can remember vividly inches and inches of the white stuff falling in one particular blizzard, so bad I can remember my dad ending up with the car in a hedge down a B road.

As for the upcoming winter, I don't really have any cast iron inklings at the minute. I suspect the NAO will average out weakly negative. I think precipitation amounts will be higher than last winter and I have the slightest feeling that channel low undercutters may feature prevelently. A long way to go yet though, albeit in my opinion, potentially a snowy if not quite as numbingly cold winter.

Edited June 5, 2011 by CreweCold

[95 Degrees]

Whatever happens this winter, I'd be amazed if I saw a snowfall like last December 2nd again, 10 inches of fluffy powder and a max of just -2C with 15+ inches on the downs, the greatest snowfall I ever experienced being only young, the 1st cold spell for my area was much more severe, saw lower maximum and minimum, getting down to -6 with 10inches of snow on the ground, will never forget that week.

The 2ND cold spell was impressive also, but with only 1inch of snow which melted around the 21st with cloudy, cold sleety conditions, not as sunny or snowy or as many frosts as the late November/December cold spell, although was amazing to see a rare harsh frost on Christmas day, and went to s.wales on the 27th to find 6 inches of packed powder refusing to melt even in 5C temperatures and drizzle, then winter ended and never came back really apart from the odd isolated frost.

Despite this, I'd still rank December at the top of the list of cold months I've experienced mainly because of the amazing first few days, along with the likes of Jan 10, 9 and Feb 09, also the dry and frosty/very cold Dec 2005 and January 1996, which I only vaguely remember.

Edited June 6, 2011 by BrightInBrighton

[ZONE 51]

very interesting, i do actually agree with most of what he is saying-it makes sense, because not only the facts are correct, it is an unusual pattern we are in and this reflects directly what data is showing, we have had snow..ice..freezes, not a rarity these days it seems, their was a time when i thought i would not see the freeze ups again, and you must know what period im on about. if we sit back and say-its simple..it is the sun that is causing these climate effects,our heat source, that of course would be correct, because if the sun was not there..then we would be iced over completely.

but there are other factors here on earth that is greatly increasing the effects made by the sun, could we get a way with a weak sun if everything else was normal? what i mean by this is if no other occurences to play with the climate were occuring on earth then if the sun was weak or as it is/has been(low sunspots..) then how would the sun effect the climate? would we be experiencing unusual weather patterns like the world is now, if we add in other effects on the climate from earth doings then this would increase and maybe speed up the process? we have volcanic ash cloud and gases, can this not cause any atmosphere effects to affect the weather? i would think it could, even if it thinned out greatly these gases/ash would go and do something, if particals can stop an aircraft flying then they can affect the atmosphere layers. the atlantic warm conveyer/gulf stream/north atlantic drift is not what it is ment to be as in the 90s-for example, it was actually not known how the gulf stream conveyer actually works until the 90s? anyway, so we are only just finding out how it effects out weather/climate, the fact is the time period of effects(delays) is so much that we won't know how it really works until its done several patterns, but what we would know is what effects it has on the weather.

Edited June 6, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Optimus Prime]

Of course December 2010 was exceptionally cold and a witer month to remember but I'm not sure I would want it to be repeated. We had some snowfall and some extremely low temperatures given the location but the last week or so was extremely dull, misty and cool. A depressing end to a wonderful month. The start of the month was also extremely cold and cloudy.

I don't mind cold and sun but that month seemed to hold something of its own - very cold and cloudy. Probably somewhat like January 1979, just a little colder.

[Northernlights]

For years I have always said to my kids kids not to look for proper snow before the end of December usually just before New Year.Last year was very unusual with dry powder snow and very low temperatures very early. Something is up I feel.I have over 50 years of memories.Picture taken 27/11/2010

[Rustynailer]

If the New Ice Age is on the way and civilisation as we know it is about to become extinct. There is at least some good news, if this happens we might, I emphasise might get some snow out of it all, proper snow just like when I was a lad.

Edited June 6, 2011 by Rustynailer

[Terminal Moraine]

Despite being of an age where I'm classed as ' getting on a bit' I have yet to have my capacity to embrace cold (at any time of year ) tested to destruction.

I clearly remember 1963, and even more clearly 1979 which here at least was much more snowy, but even working outdoors for 40 odd years in everything the British climate can conjure up has not dulled my appetite.

I've no idea how credible this chap is as I've not heard of him before but some of the posts above suggest he has a reasonable track record and this only serves to heighten my anticipation of the forthcoming winter.

I suppose the only thing which would take the shine off a 3 or 4 month cold and snowfest would be financial ruin due to shortage of work.

Perhaps the very best stuff can be saved for when I retire in about 18 months time. Not that I'm being selfish or anything!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at the picture of 27/11/10, it was certainly a real bummer missing out on that spell in Tyneside, where they had sunshine and snow showers for 9 consecutive days, thunder on 2 days (locally as many as 4 or 5 in parts of the region), towering Cb cells and eventual snow depth of 27cm at Cleadon. I did enjoy closely monitoring what they got via Neil Bradshaw's webcam and readings from South Shields, but it still wasn't a substitute for experiencing the "real thing".

So if I had one wish it would be to experience a similarly intense spell of (ahem) "thundery wintry showers", as I was somewhat cheated down in Norwich during that spell. The spell of sunshine and snow showers up at Cleadon from 18-26 December partially made up for it (not quite as dramatic, but very festive) but I am still yet to experience anything like what I "oversaw from a distance" from 24 November-2 December 2010.

[Richie V]

I knew someone would post that. :lol: hence i did say realistically speaking. Unless your utterly mad, i prefer to eat my sausages warm, not frozen to death from BBQ to plate. :lol:

One of the best BBQ's I ever had was in close on 1 metre of snow with -36c at an 18th birthday party in Alberta, Canada on a distinctly fresh january evening!

For some reason I get drunk loads faster in those temps!

[feb1991blizzard]

If the New Ice Age is on the way and civilisation as we know it is about to become extinct. There is at least some good news, if this happens we might, I emphasise might get some snow out of it all, proper snow just like when I was a lad.

Yes there would be benefit of an ice age. We would definately have a stonker chart out of that.

[Summer Sun]

Could winter 2011/2012 be as bad as 2010 see my post here

[Cheese Rice]

What I want to see from this winter is 850's to be cold enough to stop this happening....

Picture isn't resized so open by right clicking and 'open in new tab'

It doesn't really effect here, but eastern areas always seem to plagued by the threat of rain from the North Sea winds and this was around the 28th/29th of November.

Edited June 6, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What I want to see from this winter is 850's to be cold enough to stop this happening....

Picture isn't resized so open by right clicking and 'open in new tab'

It doesn't really effect here, but eastern areas always seem to plagued by the threat of rain from the North Sea winds and this was around the 28th/29th of November.

do you not mean 28/29th December? I remember it monday 28th Dec

[Cheese Rice]

do you not mean 28/29th December? I remember it monday 28th Dec

Nope, I looked at the info on the photo and it says 29th November 2010..

[damianslaw]

What I want to see from this winter is 850's to be cold enough to stop this happening....

Picture isn't resized so open by right clicking and 'open in new tab'

It doesn't really effect here, but eastern areas always seem to plagued by the threat of rain from the North Sea winds and this was around the 28th/29th of November.

Neither do I as it means we are stuck in the 'snow shadow' receiving the 'dregs'.. but conversely it means sub zero temps with bone chilling days and nights and beautiful winter walking conditions..

[Cheese Rice]

Neither do I as it means we are stuck in the 'snow shadow' receiving the 'dregs'.. but conversely it means sub zero temps with bone chilling days and nights and beautiful winter walking conditions..

I'd rather the Pennins be moved full stop, they don't serve a purpose (in terms of weather). The average snow days for the North West would shoot up, not as much for the North East. It doesn't matter to me anyway as I'm in a unique position to be affected by snow from the West and the east

[feb1991blizzard]

That one was a stonker here i think it was the 1st dec between 0030 and 0300 we had six inches, i desperately hope for a quality winter this year.

[ZONE 51]

At this stage i don't really have any signal to what september onwards is likely to bring us, but theres no reason why we can't give our thoughts! we can take a look at the wider picture of what the situation could be for autumn/winter to get an idea of what might happen, there has been huge pattern shift over the last few years caused by unusual jet stream patterns, the jet stream shifts our lows-like a highway for weather systems if you like, but what is causing these effects, well it could be the solar effects i have looked into that and it does makes sense as its all to do with the upper atmosphere-the sun effects the layers that the jet stream moves on-this affects the weather layer below it causing the weather systems to act with it and move in unusual tracks. of course it could be wrong as we don't really have enough evidence to be exact. we can also look at volcanic activity causing a layer to refect light differently from the sunshine, another factor that is well known is the gulf stream and this moving far slower or weaker, the gulf stream affects out part that we get called the north allantic drift, now if this is not working how it should then there would be less warmers waters reaching our shores, if the ocean is colder then the evapouration that occurs during warmer water periods would not be as effective at creating deep lows in central atlantic. taking all what i imagine into account and other factors that ive not stated, then i expect an earlier colder winter!.

its just my thoughts and i am trying to work out a pattern. we must realise their has been some unusual weather the last couple of years, and we broke a record in december2010, march and april2011!

we could say this winter is the key to the box with answers, as we need more evidence of this pattern im on about.

Edited June 7, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Northernlights]

For years I have always said to my kids kids not to look for proper snow before the end of December usually just before New Year.Last year was very unusual with dry powder snow and very low temperatures very early. Something is up I feel.I have over 50 years of memories.Picture taken 27/11/2010

A couple more photos from 27/11/10 showing the intensity of the snow showers coming in off the Moray Firth effectively lake effect snow with sea temperatures still quite high and I watched lightning from a thunderstorm one evening to the south over the Cairngorms at -5c around this time.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've mentioned in the past that if I could make whatever modifications I wanted to the British climate, I would narrow the daylight range to something in the region of 10 hours/day in midwinter to just over 14 in midsummer. Another, related, change would be to characterise winters by a stronger sun but colder airmasses.

The "rock-solid ice cover" issue (which, as mentioned earlier, has been my only significant issue with some of the recent prolonged cold spells) most commonly arises when the dewpoint creeps above zero, initiating a damp thaw (especially if rain/sleet falls on top of the snow) and then the whole lot re-freezes. Freeze-thaw mechanisms via sunshine and low dewpoints may eventually turn snow into solid ice but it takes a lot longer, as I've seen for myself during some late February/early March cold snaps in the Tyne and Wear area. Thus, if we had a climate where the sun, rather than high dewpoints, was the most common "thawing agent" we'd probably see less issues with ice.

I also have fantasies about lighter, brighter winters, and homegrown convection initiating in the sunshine during Arctic outbreaks, even in December (so no more wishbone effects to worry about etc- you'd see heavy snow showers near windward coasts to begin with and then a scattering of snow showers breaking out inland in the afternoon). Of course, some may be concerned about the sun melting the snow altogether as often happens in the UK in late February/March, but if we had colder airmasses offsetting the stronger sun that wouldn't necessarily happen in midwinter- it doesn't happen during cold snowy spells in various parts of the USA at 40 degrees north for example.

I realise that this sort of analysis is as futile as the "what would happen if the spin of the Earth was reversed?" question but we can all fantasise.

[UV-RAY]

I've mentioned in the past that if I could make whatever modifications I wanted to the British climate, I would narrow the daylight range to something in the region of 10 hours/day in midwinter to just over 14 in midsummer. Another, related, change would be to characterise winters by a stronger sun but colder airmasses.

The "rock-solid ice cover" issue (which, as mentioned earlier, has been my only significant issue with some of the recent prolonged cold spells) most commonly arises when the dewpoint creeps above zero, initiating a damp thaw (especially if rain/sleet falls on top of the snow) and then the whole lot re-freezes. Freeze-thaw mechanisms via sunshine and low dewpoints may eventually turn snow into solid ice but it takes a lot longer, as I've seen for myself during some late February/early March cold snaps in the Tyne and Wear area. Thus, if we had a climate where the sun, rather than high dewpoints, was the most common "thawing agent" we'd probably see less issues with ice.

I also have fantasies about lighter, brighter winters, and homegrown convection initiating in the sunshine during Arctic outbreaks, even in December (so no more wishbone effects to worry about etc- you'd see heavy snow showers near windward coasts to begin with and then a scattering of snow showers breaking out inland in the afternoon). Of course, some may be concerned about the sun melting the snow altogether as often happens in the UK in late February/March, but if we had colder airmasses offsetting the stronger sun that wouldn't necessarily happen in midwinter- it doesn't happen during cold snowy spells in various parts of the USA at 40 degrees north for example.

I realise that this sort of analysis is as futile as the "what would happen if the spin of the Earth was reversed?" question but we can all fantasise.

You really need to get out more TWS, these fantasies are unhealthy.

[feb1991blizzard]

I've mentioned in the past that if I could make whatever modifications I wanted to the British climate, I would narrow the daylight range to something in the region of 10 hours/day in midwinter to just over 14 in midsummer. Another, related, change would be to characterise winters by a stronger sun but colder airmasses.

The "rock-solid ice cover" issue (which, as mentioned earlier, has been my only significant issue with some of the recent prolonged cold spells) most commonly arises when the dewpoint creeps above zero, initiating a damp thaw (especially if rain/sleet falls on top of the snow) and then the whole lot re-freezes. Freeze-thaw mechanisms via sunshine and low dewpoints may eventually turn snow into solid ice but it takes a lot longer, as I've seen for myself during some late February/early March cold snaps in the Tyne and Wear area. Thus, if we had a climate where the sun, rather than high dewpoints, was the most common "thawing agent" we'd probably see less issues with ice.

I also have fantasies about lighter, brighter winters, and homegrown convection initiating in the sunshine during Arctic outbreaks, even in December (so no more wishbone effects to worry about etc- you'd see heavy snow showers near windward coasts to begin with and then a scattering of snow showers breaking out inland in the afternoon). Of course, some may be concerned about the sun melting the snow altogether as often happens in the UK in late February/March, but if we had colder airmasses offsetting the stronger sun that wouldn't necessarily happen in midwinter- it doesn't happen during cold snowy spells in various parts of the USA at 40 degrees north for example.

I realise that this sort of analysis is as futile as the "what would happen if the spin of the Earth was reversed?" question but we can all fantasise.

That definately is a bugbear of mine having never lived anywhere near a coast, however i suppose its swings and roundabouts as some people right on the coast even with an easterly in december were getting rain and sleet while people 5 miles or more inland were getting a real tonking. My biggest change would also be related to wanting more widespread snowfall, i would just like to see a strong scandi high every winter but as i have often commented before about these setups, the classic ones are where you get low pressure to the south or south east flinging frontal snow across the country, i would just like to see at least one of those per winter even if it was just for a week or so just so the whole country gets something and no one is disappointed.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/PDFcr_nino34SSTMon.gif

Modelling now signalling that La Nina may redevelop for winter.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

QBO values dropped in May, so the easterly values are on there way.

Looking good!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

That definately is a bugbear of mine having never lived anywhere near a coast, however i suppose its swings and roundabouts as some people right on the coast even with an easterly in december were getting rain and sleet while people 5 miles or more inland were getting a real tonking. My biggest change would also be related to wanting more widespread snowfall, i would just like to see a strong scandi high every winter but as i have often commented before about these setups, the classic ones are where you get low pressure to the south or south east flinging frontal snow across the country, i would just like to see at least one of those per winter even if it was just for a week or so just so the whole country gets something and no one is disappointed.

Yes, some of the big frontal snow events of the late 1970s and 1980s ended up as "all snow" events due to cold air meeting slightly less cold air, or the cold air winning out (such that areas that get rain initially still get snow in the end). Traditionally the main issue with such events is that in many cases the lows to the south throw a lot of warm air into their circulation so a narrow belt of the UK gets a memorable snow event, while eastern coastal areas within the belt and anywhere to the south/west of it gets rain.

I'm not generally a big fan of the Scandinavian High unless it throws up a ridge across to our north, as historically many "south-easterly" months dominated by the Scandinavian High have ended up very dull and mainly dry. A ridge across to our north tends to promote more of an east to north-easterly type which brings more instability and thus sunshine and snow showers as it crosses the North Sea.