Autumn 2011

[masheeuk]

I see the Asylum doors have been opened early this year. Or business is so bad companies are scaring people into purchase they don't need.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/idUS77740+13-Jun-2011+BW20110613

[Climate Man]

I see the Asylum doors have been opened early this year. Or business is so bad companies are scaring people into purchase they don't need.

http://www.reuters.c...2011+BW20110613

I have to agree with you But the current "stuck" pattern looks as though in general terms it will continue well into August. Should it continue into Autumn then we are looking at a cold start to winter.

[shedhead]

I see the Asylum doors have been opened early this year. Or business is so bad companies are scaring people into purchase they don't need.

http://www.reuters.c...2011+BW20110613

Nothing more than a sales and marketing exercise.... simples!

[bobbydog]

I see the Asylum doors have been opened early this year. Or business is so bad companies are scaring people into purchase they don't need.

http://www.reuters.c...2011+BW20110613

this is the bloke i was on about earlier!!!

Specialist long-range forecaster James Madden, of Exacta Weather, correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years and gave his forecast to ATS Euromaster as it prepares to fit cold weather tyres in the UK for the second year running.

He warns: “The UK is to brace itself for well below average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall throughout winter 2011/2012 which will result in the fourth bad winter in succession, and will prove to be the worst of them all.

“I fully expect records to be broken, with the Highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is vital to start preparing now.â€

he's the daily mail forum tin-foil hat wearer, known as "weathergeek"

and now he's got large national companies listening to him!! (of course, they could be taking advantage of this idiot to sell shed loads of winter tyres!)

[Methuselah]

Aye. It looks as though the kooks are coming out of hibernation early, this year?

They must have eaten too many rowan berries...

[Ladyofthestorm]

Hi there,

am I not right in thinking that the la nina condisitions have now changed to an ever strengthening el Nino?

Solar activity is on the increase,

and SST's accross the atlantic have dramatically recovered this year?

Not to mention the atlantic has finally woke up from its slumber

Doesnt this suggest wet, windy and mild?

[Optimus Prime]

Winter 1986-87 was a winter that had a notable cold spell around mid-point, though the rest of the winter wasn't special, and take out the period 7th to 20th Jan 1987, then winter 1986-87 has a CET of 4.6, not the 3.5 that it ended up. Removing 14 days adds 1.1 to the CET. This clearly shows that winter 86-87 wasn't all a notable cold spell cracked it up to be. A number of people have often remembered winter 86-87 as a classic when in fact outside a 14 day spell in mid Jan it was far from a classic. A similar situation applies to winter 2010-11. removing the first 27 days of December means that winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not 3.1.

Clearly the January 1987 cold spell was exceptional and effected the winter CET by a great extent, we all know that and the rest of the winter was mostly void of severe weather until March. I don't quite understand the point in removing certain weeks just to suite your idea of how rubbish a winter was had it not been there. It's ok for statistical purposes in comparing it with winters with similar characteristics but fundamentally, it doesn't really prove a lot unless you include other factorial indexes that might have been exceptional at that time.

[Ladyofthestorm]

here we go I found something that resembles what I was looking for, how many different graphs do they need! Warming of the Pacific suggesting el nino... I think!

[shedhead]

The same kind of hype followed GP's 'Shades of 76' Summer Forecast, but despite his huge level of knowledge and previous track record we all know what happened to that! So whilst Madden may well be right, theres a huge

amount of water to go under the bridge, even before all the required paramaters are in place to try and make a forecast. Pure hype and sensationalism at this stage and if this guy is not careful he'll be in real danger of being viewed

in the same light as the ultimate nutty professor, putting commercial interests and self promotion above professional integrity.

Edited July 20, 2011 by shedhead

[Ladyofthestorm]

and finally sunspot activity taken from space weather.

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2011 total: 1 day (<1%) of those sunspot present they are pretty large ones.

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Since 2004: 820 days

Typical Solar Min: 486 days

Updated 19 Jul 2011

looks like a mild winter to me from beginning to end with out breaks of cold coming as brief interludes from the North as pressure builds over Greenland.

I thinks it more wind and rain we will have to worry about rather than snow. The good news is that the power companies will lose out...yay!

as for volcanoes... atmospheric dust was removed long ago so unlikely to have such a long term impact.

Edited July 20, 2011 by Ladyofthestorm

[Optimus Prime]

and finally sunspot activity taken from space weather.

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2011 total: 1 day (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Since 2004: 820 days

Typical Solar Min: 486 days

Updated 19 Jul 2011

looks like a mild winter to me from beginning to end with out breaks of cold coming as brief interludes from the North as pressure builds over Greenland.

I thinks it more wind and rain we will have to worry about rather than snow. The good news is that the power companies will lose out...yay!

And you predict a mild winter based entirely on sunspot activity?

[bobbydog]

Hi there,

am I not right in thinking that the la nina condisitions have now changed to an ever strengthening el Nino?

Solar activity is on the increase,

and SST's accross the atlantic have dramatically recovered this year?

Not to mention the atlantic has finally woke up from its slumber

Doesnt this suggest wet, windy and mild?

hi LOTS, i'm not sure where you got that info but i posted this a couple of days ago:

the NOAA ENSO forecast is saying that enso-neutral conditions will most likely last into autumn, then a possible return to la nina :

Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5°C and +0.5°C; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Hi guys, I got that graph from the NOAA site...and no I dont just predict long range weather patterns based on sunspot activity. that would be madness. ENSO neutral will still bring us atlantic dominated weather. Id wait and see what the current hurricane season brings us.... an active season is indicative of a very mobile atlantic.

I was right the past two winters, I will be right again.

[Optimus Prime]

I was right the past two winters, I will be right again.

Lol I like your confidence, definitely worth a thumbs up!

[Ladyofthestorm]

Lol I like your confidence, definitely worth a thumbs up!

lol thanks, I win either way... if Im wrong it snows, if its wet then I was right!

[Methuselah]

Hi there,

am I not right in thinking that the la nina condisitions have now changed to an ever strengthening el Nino?

Solar activity is on the increase,

and SST's accross the atlantic have dramatically recovered this year?

Not to mention the atlantic has finally woke up from its slumber

Doesnt this suggest wet, windy and mild?

Doesn't everything?

[noggin]

Here http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html is the forecast that the tyre people were using. I had posted it elsewhere earlier, but I hadn't realised that there was already a Winter 2011/2012 thread. I cannot believe how my "sniff of Winter disussion" radar has let me down this year!

Anyway, onwards and upwards. I like the forecast for two reasons:

1) It takes into account a whole host of weather "causes", such as atmospherics, currents, winds, volcanoes and so on, to give quite a rounded reasoning.

2) I love snow.

May I echo what others have said in that Stratos is sorely missed. I had many a run-in with him, but it was generally all good clean fun.....I think. :w00t:

[bobbydog]

Here http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html is the forecast that the tyre people were using. I had posted it elsewhere earlier, but I hadn't realised that there was already a Winter 2011/2012 thread. I cannot believe how my "sniff of Winter disussion" radar has let me down this year!

Anyway, onwards and upwards. I like the forecast for two reasons:

1) It takes into account a whole host of weather "causes", such as atmospherics, currents, winds, volcanoes and so on, to give quite a rounded reasoning.

2) I love snow.

May I echo what others have said in that Stratos is sorely missed. I had many a run-in with him, but it was generally all good clean fun.....I think. :w00t:

to be fair, you like the forecast because it says what you want to hear

this is the bloke who 'predicted' last winter would be the coldest on record, yet when it actually came in at just below average, he still claims to have got it right!!

[noggin]

to be fair, you like the forecast because it says what you want to hear

I did say that I like snow, as my second point!

In my first point I said I liked it because of it's rounded reasoning.

I even did the points in a particular order, to give the unemotional reason first.

Sigh.

[bobbydog]

I did say that I like snow, as my second point!

In my first point I said I liked it because of it's rounded reasoning.

I even did the points in a particular order, to give the unemotional reason first.

Sigh.

the problem with this bloke is, he sounds reasonable enough and his theory is fine. however he does not see it as theory, he sees it as fact. he was on the daily mail forum for months (before declaring himself a 'professional' forecaster) making wild claims about the weather and would not listen to any reasonable argument put before him. if you google 'winter forecast 2011/2012' you will find quite a few search results, but click on any one and 99% of them will contain his forecast. thats because no decent forecaster will claim to know how this winter will turn out this far in advance. he will find any theory which suits his cause and claim it is fact. even those theories which are very doubtful. any other theories or even proven facts which throw any doubt on his forecast, he will ignore or dismiss as rubbish!

[La Bise]

Cripes, do you think he is friend with that chap who used the wisdom of the ancients to predict mega-storms (and how the govt should be told and do something about it...) and kept us amused for a while earlier in the year...?

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi guys, I got that graph from the NOAA site...and no I dont just predict long range weather patterns based on sunspot activity. that would be madness. ENSO neutral will still bring us atlantic dominated weather. Id wait and see what the current hurricane season brings us.... an active season is indicative of a very mobile atlantic.

I was right the past two winters, I will be right again.

Must disagree.

The look this year is for weak to medarate La Nina (not El Nino) by the winter (2011/2012).

With a change in the QBO also on the cards, we see far more favourable conditions for the winter season this year, .... on a whole, even more so than last year (which warmed considerably post end of the year).

The AMO looks pretty cool to cold at the moment.

Sun activity is still low (cycle to cycle comparisons) - http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/09/solar-activity-report-the-sun-is-still-in-a-funk/

The jet stream has continued to want to stay South of normal (noted over the past 3-5 years).

There has been a lot of high lattidude volcanic activity in recent years.

All of which would point to more favourable blocking conditions in the Atlantic. No certainties of course, but I would have thought that there are a lot of indicators showing good possibilities this year.

(Oh and Joe laminate floori has already predicted a cold European winter ....... if that means a great deal !)

Y.S

[Cliftop]

Please could you supply a link for joe laminate floori's european winter page? Thanks

Must disagree.

The look this year is for weak to medarate La Nina (not El Nino) by the winter (2011/2012).

With a change in the QBO also on the cards, we see far more favourable conditions for the winter season this year, .... on a whole, even more so than last year (which warmed considerably post end of the year).

The AMO looks pretty cool to cold at the moment.

Sun activity is still low (cycle to cycle comparisons) - http://wattsupwithth...till-in-a-funk/

The jet stream has continued to want to stay South of normal (noted over the past 3-5 years).

There has been a lot of high lattidude volcanic activity in recent years.

All of which would point to more favourable blocking conditions in the Atlantic. No certainties of course, but I would have thought that there are a lot of indicators showing good possibilities this year.

(Oh and Joe laminate floori has already predicted a cold European winter ....... if that means a great deal !)

Y.S

[Ladyofthestorm]

I disagree about the jetstream wanting to stay south, any other year and I would agree, there are strong inidications that the atlantic has woken from its slumber and that the current meteorlogical conditions are supporting a strong jet directly over us here in the UK. We are witnessing blocking conditions in the atlantic, unfortunately its over the azores which isnt good news for cold lovers.

The ENSO graph is showing huge disparities in its runs and it is really difficult to rely on, what we do know is that it was very negative all last summer and into autumn and that will not be the casethis year unless something short of a weather miracle happens. The CFS doesnt have a great record at predicting longer range ENSO conditions, take last year when it said it would go strongly el nino and it didnt. Volcanic activity will only imapct for 1 yr to 18 months it is very short term, due to the atmospheric chemistry involved.

Solar activity is increasing, even given the lag time which was start of last winter, its effect on the atmosphere will now only encourage warmth.

Winter will be mild wet and very windy. Worst of the any snow will be for the north. I will be surprised to see a beast from the east.

[Ben_Cambs]

I might be wrong and correct me if I am, but James Madden's (Exacta weather) forecast for this winter looks like an exact copy of his forecast for last winter. He suggested all three months would be in the very cold category in winter of 2010/11..

Edited July 20, 2011 by Ben_Cambs