Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[Stuart]

could we see number 2 storm soon it getting dark here

[lewisosd]

Hope the London cell will hit me just as I finish work. Luckily my camera is in the boot of my car along with the tripod so may make a few stops on my journey home

[Carl46Wrexham]

My shower is now electrified, nice deep BOOM! Number 8 storm of 2011

You greedy git!:lol:

Could I PLEASEEEEE have ONE storm this year....many thanks.

[Andy Bown]

The storms in the London area seem to be forming at the back edge of a more frontal looking rain area (frontal as TWS posted earlier).

Currently the majority of the Wiltshire, Gloucestershire, Bath, Bristol and Somerset area is currently fine and with good sunny spells and just

the odd shower! However the trough to the West over Cornwall/Devon/W.Somerset should edge this way during the afternoon but it is making quite

slow progress - although hopefully that may be a benefit if things want to kick off at the warmest time of the day!

Just had a lightening bolt hit the tree 10 metres from me window, an almighty explosion, and thats gonna shorten my life expectancy a bit. Sweet jeeesus that was bad!!!!

Awesome!

[Crimson_Sprite]

That storm near Skegness looks nice! Sun is T-R-Y-ing to come out here... please sun!!!!!!

[Harry]

Intense small cell moving towards S London - dont THINK I will get this one but if it holds its intensity, Nick F among others may receive a direct hit.

Nothing electric YET

On reflection I think it may scoot along the M25 for a bit and head towards SE London...few more cells showing signs of development though towards Southampton/Portsmouth way with a few speckles W/SW of London too.

This is my view on the situation today...two key areas of focus IMO.

One is the notable convergence line lining up around the pennine routes then extending horizontally from around the Wash westwards. This in my view could give rise to sustained torrential downpours with a higher chance of thunderstorm activity/funnel clouds/tornadoes.

The second area of the interest is the trough progged by the MetO which is forecast to run across Southern England this afternoon. There is one expected to move through this morning which could trigger off some torrential downpours (expected to be sat across EA/SE corner by around lunchtime) - due to its early arrival, its unlikely to capitalise on daytime heating. The second however is expected to race in behind it, coinciding with peak CAPE in the order of 300-800 J/Kg with modest LI's of -2 to -3. This could potentially generate more organised downpours/thunderstorms, or even develop into a squall feature...should this happen, this would heighten funnel risk in addition to hail and lightning.

Anywhere though across England and Wales could see heavy/thundery downpours today, but I think the two areas in orange below would be the focus for any of the more 'exciting' activity

Feel quite pleased about my little forecast so far

Still anticipating more thunder this afternoon - where exactly is anybody's guess. But we had thunder and lightning here at a time CAPE was almost zero and LI were positive. As CAPE now starts to increase, LI's decrease etc I expect showers to break out rapidly as we approach 2-3pm through until this evening...exciting day

Edited June 10, 2011 by Harry

[Coast]

Suns out here and warming up nicely, good propects for later on I hope.

After a brief but intense downpour, its the same in Mid Sussex

[bobbydog]

Intense small cell moving towards S London - dont THINK I will get this one but if it holds its intensity, Nick F among others may receive a direct hit.

Nothing electric YET

On reflection I think it may scoot along the M25 for a bit and head towards SE London...few more cells showing signs of development though towards Southampton/Portsmouth way with a few speckles W/SW of London too.

Feel quite pleased about my little forecast so far

Still anticipating more thunder this afternoon - where exactly is anybody's guess. But we had thunder and lightning here at a time CAPE was almost zero and LI were positive. As CAPE now starts to increase, LI's decrease etc I expect showers to break out rapidly as we approach 2-3pm through until this evening...exciting day

just watching those developing - getting darker here...

[Muffelchen]

Interestingly, the storms over Lincs seem to be exploding over the southern slope of the Wolds as the air coming across the Wash is forced to rise. The storms then seem to stay in situ leading to long spells of rainfall - there is a risk of flash-flooding there now I would say.

I wonder if a similar thing is likely to happen as this unstable patch moves up over the Humber and hits the Yorkshire Wolds and then the N York Moors? There is tantalising evidence just coming out in the most recent radar frames that this may be beginning to happen.

The flatter areas South of York into the Midlands are much quieter convection wise at the moment. Does the atmosphere need some kind of orographic forcing to get the storms going? It certainly looks like it - maybe it is the absence of the sun and its attendant insolation that is the missing ingredient elsewhere.....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well we seem to be doing a fine job of missing any precipitation at all here.

Wednesday was a very frustrating day; missed a torrential thunderstorm by about 3 miles to the south east firstly. An hour or so later we missed another storm about 5 miles to the north. Then I travelled on the train to Stockport......when I'd got there they had just had an almighty storm with quite deep flooding on the roads. Wasn't my day for witnessing a storm!

[Harry]

Interestingly, the storms over Lincs seem to be exploding over the southern slope of the Wolds as the air coming across the Wash is forced to rise. The storms then seem to stay in situ leading to long spells of rainfall - there is a risk of flash-flooding there now I would say.

I wonder if a similar thing is likely to happen as this unstable patch moves up over the Humber and hits the Yorkshire Wolds and then the N York Moors? There is tantalising evidence just coming out in the most recent radar frames that this may be beginning to happen.

The flatter areas South of York into the Midlands are much quieter convection wise at the moment. Does the atmosphere need some kind of orographic forcing to get the storms going? It certainly looks like it - maybe it is the absence of the sun and its attendant insolation that is the missing ingredient elsewhere.....

Yeah that seems to me to be a cast iron CZ...MetO have had a warning out now for a little while for the Wash area. As long as the CZ lasts, there'll be torrential rain/thunderstorm activity. Given the drought conditions in that region, I'm expecting the yellow warning to go quickly orange - widespread flash flooding in that region is IMO looking likely, if not occurring already.

We had thunderstorms about 2 weeks ago across the SE which lasted around an hour - that caused chaos, flooding dual carriageways, train delays etc. It's been raining in Lincs/Wash area, torrentially in some places, for longer than that....best of luck peeps!

Region between Newmarket, Haverhill and Bury St Edmunds about to get a torrential deluge! I would go as far as to say as keep a look out - latest radar shows the torrential core developing slightly linear characteristics with a subtle hook...funnels possible IMO...anyone in that area?

Edited June 10, 2011 by Harry

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Hope the London cell will hit me just as I finish work. Luckily my camera is in the boot of my car along with the tripod so may make a few stops on my journey home

Good Luck on that, please don't be greedy and use it all

[Cheshire Freeze]

Beautiful little cell kicked off towards northwest Cheshire looking at the netweather radar.

The cells today seem to be more reliant on insolation than earlier on in the week....probably due to the slack, relatively cold airmass in place.

Edited June 10, 2011 by CreweCold

[Harry]

Anyone near Bury St Edmunds/Haverhill area?

[lewisosd]

Yeah that seems to me to be a cast iron CZ...MetO have had a warning out now for a little while for the Wash area. As long as the CZ lasts, there'll be torrential rain/thunderstorm activity. Given the drought conditions in that region, I'm expecting the yellow warning to go quickly orange - widespread flash flooding in that region is IMO looking likely, if not occurring already.

We had thunderstorms about 2 weeks ago across the SE which lasted around an hour - that caused chaos, flooding dual carriageways, train delays etc. It's been raining in Lincs/Wash area, torrentially in some places, for longer than that....best of luck peeps!

Region between Newmarket, Haverhill and Bury St Edmunds about to get a torrential deluge! I would go as far as to say as keep a look out - latest radar shows the torrential core developing slightly linear characteristics with a subtle hook...funnels possible IMO...anyone in that area?

Hi i'm in that area now but working. Finish very soon so will go and take a look. Now heading out for a quick fag and got about 30 mins to spare so will have a quick drive around

[tomp456]

oh where oh where are the ******* storms, oh where oh where can they ******* be!!!

Edited June 10, 2011 by tomp456

[Mesoscale]

we have dodged everything today here, im hopeing some potent shows/storms can form west of southampton and then track this way.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Cheshire storm tracking along the M56 it seems.

[Chris K]

Anyone know if the Bristol area is likely to see any storms? I know the mass of rain to the southwest is approaching but seems to gradually weaken as it leaves Devon/approaches Somerset.

[Harry]

Downpour appears to be weakening in the Bury St Edmunds area now, but quite a large clump of rain remaining.

New line of showers approaching London, some of which are intensifying quite quickly.

Some lively downpours developing along the trough across the SW also.

Cheshire cell still looking quite good, clump of downpours near the Wash maintaining some oompff too.

Decent potential for a small shower west of Reading to turn thundery IMO - very isolated and intensifying nicely at the moment

Edited June 10, 2011 by Harry

[bobbydog]

lightning popping up in the SW now

[lewisosd]

Just rain here i'm afraid! AM radio detecting strikes about every minute or so. Anyone know if a fresh line of cells are gonna pop up later this evening for the east?

[Hughsey]

Not seen anything today and unfortunately still remain in the no storms club , and interesting to see a drought has been declared. Ironic that drought declared in Licolnshire and its now getting pasted.

Am still hopeful I might see at least a heavy shower today, fingers crossed anyway.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Well we seem to be doing a fine job of missing any precipitation at all here.

Wednesday was a very frustrating day; missed a torrential thunderstorm by about 3 miles to the south east firstly. An hour or so later we missed another storm about 5 miles to the north. Then I travelled on the train to Stockport......when I'd got there they had just had an almighty storm with quite deep flooding on the roads. Wasn't my day for witnessing a storm!

Same here, big clouds with very dark bases in almost every direction but here with the sun almost constantly beating down there has not been so much as a single drop of rain, whereas places just a few miles away have had shower after shower.

Edited June 10, 2011 by Carl43Wrexham

[TheToastPeople]

I think the sun icon on my weather station is being a bit optimistic seems as its chucking it down, no hail or thunder to report here... yet