Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[Jane Louise]

Here come s the first yellow weather warning of the day from the Met Office for the far South West.

A period of heavy, possibly thundery rain will bring 25 to 40 mm in places, particularly over higher ground.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html?from=rss&sn=0E7EA0BB-31F0-CFEF-CBE4-788BBFF8C49E_1_SW

Good luck all.

[bobbydog]

Lovely warm sunshine this morning which is nice. Temperature already at 15C and rising in blue sky. However, towering congestus clouds with dark rain shadows to my west, running up the Bristol Channel. Looks like a good area here today for, if not thunderstorms, torrential downpours.

check out the radar!

[Jane Louise]

As nobody has said it yet good luck with your exam

Looks like I did already.

[chionomaniac]

Lots of mucky upper cloud here that will inhibit convection for those to our NE. Luckily sun is now trying to break through.

[paul m]

Looks like I did already.

Need to type faster lol

[Coast]

Morning all! Sorry busy day already but have had a quick look at the skies in Sussex and the following bits of info that may be of interest/applicable or not!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 10 Jun 2011 06:00 to Sat 11 Jun 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 09 Jun 2011 09:31

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A strong vortex is situated over UK, Scotland and Ireland with a weaker one centered over far west Russia. In-between, low geopotential heights cover most parts of central Europe. At lower levels, BL moisture is modest with averaged 0-1km mixing ratios below 10 g/kg, increasing a bit from E-Bulgaria towards Belarus.

... UK ...

Mainly daytime driven thunderstorms beneath an upper low are forecast, as 500 hPa cool down to less than -25 °C. Low T-Td spread and more than 50 hPa 0-3 km CAPE indicate the risk for a few funnel/tornado events, especially along any persisting convergence zone. Thunderstorm coverage decreases rapidly after sunset.

Storm Forecast Issued: 2011-06-09 22:01:00

Valid: 2011-06-10 00:00:00 - 2011-06-10 23:59:00

Regions Affected

(United Kingdom, excluding S Wales & SW Eng, is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Cold mid levels will overspread the country on Friday, associated with an upper-level Low ("Balthasar" (FU Berlin)). Relatively low geopotential heights combined with surface heating will aid steeping lapse rates.

Up to 700 J/kg CAPE is expected to develop, with widespread showers and local thunderstorms over much of the country, although it is anticipated that the best of any convection will occur late in the afternoon and early evening, with ELT's as low as -30°C.

Meagre deep layer shear is likely to inhibit the threat of a tornado/funnel somewhat, although quite a few local convergence zones are expected which increases the chance of convergence-type funnels. Hail is likely in many of the showers, locally moderate in size over England in particular.

Showers will slowly decrease in coverage during the evening, becoming mainly confined to eastern and coastal parts by the end of the forecast period.

SkyWarn and TORRO have no particular forecast for convective activity.

There now, that's got your scrolling fingers exercised for the day!

[paul m]

Lets hope there is some much needed rain today. BBC saying driest spell for 100 years down south

[lewisosd]

Dear weather Gods,

I am working until 3:30 then getting tattooed at 5-7pm. Could you please bring a storm anytime after that.

Regards

Lewis

[AWD]

Love the fact they exclude South West England in that forecast, but the rest of the country is included!

Oh well, it will be our day one day down here! Hopefully still get some heavy rain showers, some decent PPN is showing up out to the west, coming into the Bristol Channel!

Good luck all!

[bobbydog]

it actually 'feels' stormy today, which it hasn't done over previous days

[Nick F]

Good morning. Hopefully a better chance of seeing a storm than yesterday. Rather cold air aloft for time of year crossing the UK today with upper trough looking at the 500mb temp charts, which will create rather steep lapse rates and thus plenty of convection with solar heating:

... freezing level quite low as a result for time of year, as low as 1400m, so hail certainly going to be a feature of showers and storms. With slack flow, breeze convergence zones may set-up - so with buoyant updrafts - some funnels possible and maybe even a weak tornado. Full forecast here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[peterf]

cloud is moving and slowly spiralling in every direction.very warm in the sun also.

[Harry]

Contrary to pretty much every forecast I've seen, GFS is keen for the storm risk to continue until around midnight across S and SE England...whether this is just because 'after dark' at this time of year isn't until around 10-11pm?

[Lauren]

I hope if there is a storm today it doesn't happen until I get home from work at around 5pm. I'm stuck inside all day.

[Jane Louise]

Just had the first heavy downpour of the day. The sun is out again and blue sky is appearing. It's also our bin day here, so let's hope I don't mistake the sound of wheelie bins being dragged for thunder grrrrrr

[P-M]

There appears to be some shower activity crossing Leeds at present but over the past hour it has grown and looks like it has intensified (slightly) looks like headed straight up the east coast towards Newcastle area, but that all depends on whether it electrfies and doesn't fizzle out by the time it gets here! Good luck to everyone today - as always don't hold your breath for too long (that's what I have learned anyway!)

[WillinGlossop]

Absolutely chucking it down last half hour in faversham north kent, lookslike building showers in channel..... we've had 10mm so far....

[Crimson_Sprite]

despo' need the sun to come out and play!! Notts could have some really good potential if these pesky clouds just SHIFT.

[Sprites]

If jeremy kyle ever had a look at this forum, he would be furious! , all these ppl looking at clouds and weather data, not like decent ppl with proper hair-cuts who read the F.T. and follow working lunch PMPL .

[Lynxus]

Theres some nice convection about this morning, Good sign

Its good to know that Estofex have yet another warning for today and the guys here ave decided to add one also.

Should be a fun day to see if anything pops up.. Fingers crossed

UKASF also have one: http://ukasf.co.uk/index.php?name=storm

Edited June 10, 2011 by Lynxus

[Muffelchen]

Steady rain here (Doncaster) for most of the morning. has stopped currently and things, according to the radar, are building up to the west. Echoes on the radar aren't moving about much. Check out that cluster of storms way out in the N Sea at the moment, they have now gone electrical and have been there for hours.

Bit of sun would be good here but maybe that is on the way now....

[DeepSnow]

Had quite a few heavy showers thismorning, looks like more to come from the west too, though doub't it will be thundery by the time it gets here, can always hope though!

[Hurricane Debby]

Its getting very dark here at the moment in Sutton and I just heard a rumble of thunder in the distance. Its also eerily still out. The calm before the storm I hope !

[Crimson_Sprite]

That cell SW of London looks like it could be a nice little boomer. Anyone know if its gone electric yet?

[DAVID SNOW]

A nice cell building to the West of London