Summer Forecast Continued.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Talking of years that had a poor June followed by a dramatic improvement in July and August was that the case in 1955 also?

Also was there an element of improment in 1984 too as I think that the best weather then came in August.

Do you think we could have a similar improvement this year as those years certainly show that a "poor" June in the eyes of some can certainly lead to an improvement in conditions later in the summer.

Luke

Yes, 1955 was a pretty good example- June was dull, cold and damp in central and southern regions (although relatively sunny in the north) and then July ranked among the sunniest Julys on record while August was notable hot (18.1C CET). Other good examples include 1983, 1984, 1990 and 1991, and arguably 1997 (although August 1997, despite the exceptional heat, was not spectacular sunshine wise in most regions).

Some summers can take until August to "come alive"- I remember this being the case in 2000 in the Tyne and Wear area, and it may have also been true of 1991 in south-western districts (where July 1991 was dull and wet despite its warmth). Others, such as 1994, 1999 and 2006, "peak" during July, although I can't think of many summers that had genuinely driech Junes and Augusts flanking warm sunny Julys (perhaps 1971, but that was a long time ago).

[Summer Sun]

Stalker!

loli like many on here appreciate what GP does i have heard about how he called last years winter correct so unless GP Say's summer 2011 is a write off i still maintain hope.

[mushymanrob]

lol..im sure gp hasnt left because hes called june incorrectly! :lol:

[lukemc]

Hi,

Do you think there is any hope for an improvement in the outlook anytime soon? I am normally quite an optimist but even I am starting to get a bit impatient as far as warm, sunny, settled weather is concerned considering that I live in the NW meaning that the last 4 summers in many respects could be described as being "quite poor" as far as not just rainfall but also cool maxima and cloud cover are concerned. In my area, however, this June has not been as bad as some make it out to be but it has been a bit on the cool side with the threat of showers on most days and of course we had the warm and dry spell at the beginning of the month. It would be nice for me to go places without having to ware a jacket or coat which I would expect to be able to do at this time of year. Even though this June has not been too bad in some ways, I would certainly not want our current pattern (with HP over greenland, deflecting the Jet Stream southwards and LP after LP over the British Isles with transitory ridges inbetween at times) to persist all summer - I think that would be very depressing - not just for me but for many on this forum so I do feel for them. As far as the grading of summers are concerned, you only have to look at Mr D's Manchester Summer Index to see how "mediocre" they were especially in the NW of England. As I have mentioned on the MOD, when did we last get a run of 5 consecutive summers that could be considered "poor" or at least "mediocre" - even in the 1980s that was not the case and we did not have to wait more than 4 years before the next decent summer (1985-88 and then 1989). I was thinking possibly the period 1977-83 but I have read on another forum that the last time we got a run of 5 summers with above average rainfall for the UK as a whole was in the decade 1910-1920 and if this summer turned out above average in rainfall it would be the first time we have had a run of 5 above average summers for rainfall since then. Considering that does anyone know if the last 4 summers clocked above average rainfall for the UK as a whole?

Luke

[Thundery wintry showers]

1977-1982 is a possibility, though not as clear-cut as 1985-88. The summer of 1977 was a rare example of a dry and sunny but cool one in much of northern and western Britain (dull and wet towards the SE though), August 1981 was quite warm, dry and sunny, and July 1982 likewise in the north.

I have my doubts about 1983 being added to that sequence considering the record-breaking hot July and the dry sunny August.

I think 2007-10, taking long-term averages into account (rather than the N-W/MOD expectation for summers to be Mediterranean) can only really be classified as a run of poor summers in certain regions of the country, most notably Wales and the western side of England. 2009 was warmer and sunnier than average in most eastern areas plus northern Scotland despite being wet, while June/July 2010 were warmer and drier than average in most eastern parts of England and June was also much sunnier than average, so that's 2 months out of 3. Can't really argue with 2007/08 though.

[AderynCoch]

A subtle dig from weatheronline?

"Summer 2011 perhaps not one shaping up to be one which many of us would have wished for and not what some had earlier lead us to expect?"

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20110611

Their long-term forecast is all doom and gloom, but that always seems to be the case.

[Buzzit]

This eruption could really throw global weather patterns for a six , especially as the ash heads towards the atlantic and traverses where atlantic convection originates from. http://earthquake-report.com/2011/06/12/unusual-series-of-moderate-volcanic-earthquakes-in-eritrea-and-ethiopia/

[Jack Wales]

A subtle dig from weatheronline?

"Summer 2011 perhaps not one shaping up to be one which many of us would have wished for and not what some had earlier lead us to expect?"

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20110611

Their long-term forecast is all doom and gloom, but that always seems to be the case.

I disagree. I don't think they are having a dig at NW as they didn't mention us by name and there were a plethora of other LRF's forecasting a hot and dry summer.

As for their longer term forecast, I don't necessarily think it's doom and gloom but actually a fairly realistic projection of what we can expect over the next month, which just happens to be cool and changeable.

[Gavin P]

A subtle dig from weatheronline?

"Summer 2011 perhaps not one shaping up to be one which many of us would have wished for and not what some had earlier lead us to expect?"

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20110611

Their long-term forecast is all doom and gloom, but that always seems to be the case.

I think they mean "what we had earlier been lead to expect" by the weather - I.E. a reference to the summery April.

[Summer Sun]

To be honest weather online are forever changing there forecasts, they struggle to get it right for 1 week some times never mind 1 month!

A subtle dig from weatheronline?

"Summer 2011 perhaps not one shaping up to be one which many of us would have wished for and not what some had earlier lead us to expect?"

http://www.weatheron...ma&DAY=20110611

Their long-term forecast is all doom and gloom, but that always seems to be the case.

Already been discussed here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69894-weather-online-month-ahead/ :winky:

[Methuselah]

It's an irony, though, that some of the craziest winter forecasts escape criticism and, instead, garner an endless stream of excuses. Why is that? Why the inconsistency amongst critics?

[AderynCoch]

As for their longer term forecast, I don't necessarily think it's doom and gloom but actually a fairly realistic projection of what we can expect over the next month, which just happens to be cool and changeable.

Yes, i.e. doom and gloom! :lol:

[Jack Wales]

It's an irony, though, that some of the craziest winter forecasts escape criticism and, instead, garner an endless stream of excuses. Why is that? Why the inconsistency amongst critics?

I agree, the outlandish forecasts seem to get away scott free yet GP's summer forecast has come in for a lot of criticism despite the fact it was created using a great deal of research and technical knowledge. If only certain people were as quick to congratulate him when he is correct.

Yes, i.e. doom and gloom! :lol:

Lol! Yes pretty much, can't see much change for the rest of summer either although there is a stronger signal for the mid atlantic ridge to activate again for July / August which may dry things up a bit in the west. I think 'Cool' is probably going to be the best descriptor of this summer.

[ZONE 51]

their is a good chance we can break out of this set up this pattern we are stuck in, at least were getting watered! my concern-for drought reasons is that we break from this pattern back into the dry high pressure and stays that way for a long period-and at the height of summer. the brief ridges is what i call 'flirts' or signs, its trying to but needs a pull! that pull being our weather highway-jet stream, to shift north taking the lows with it! and of course allowing our flirting highs to hang around a bit longer and moving across all areas!

[ohno]

It can rain in the autumn.I don't personally want another wet cold summer..As that what the rest of June is looking like...

[stupotlee]

I'm just hoping that the brief and tentative shades of improvement come off in FI of the models. I'm off to the Costa del Skeggy on the 25th.

Please, please, please, as long as it's not constant rain and we can get out and about I'd be happy

otherwise, fingers crossed for a late summer around 9th September when I'm back there for 2 weeks!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have a slight concern that a northward shift of the jet could evolve into the pattern with the Azores High ridging into the extreme south and lows tracking to the north of Scotland. The result of this pattern is often dry weather in eastern and southern England with temperatures near or slightly above average, sunshine near or slightly below, and a near-absence of convective activity.

[William of Walworth]

I have a slight concern that a northward shift of the jet could evolve into the pattern with the Azores High ridging into the extreme south and lows tracking to the north of Scotland. The result of this pattern is often dry weather in eastern and southern England with temperatures near or slightly above average, sunshine near or slightly below, and a near-absence of convective activity.

Well we all want different things don't we -- I could live with that!

[ZONE 51]

where would the jetstream be best placed to provide the whole of Britain with a well positioned area of high pressure providing all with-dry, very warm air, blue sunny skies and light winds? that high of course would be centered over us. i know the jet should be north of Scotland in summer and its south in winter-usually over us in south, at the moment its in the wrong place across the UK, and blocking over Greenland stopping the jet moving north, TWS mentioned the azores high and lack of convective activity, this happened last year, and that does worry me! although i would enjoy the sunny warm or hot days, if we had a continental high then this would allow a largerrisk of storms,where would we expect the jet to be to get that setup?

Edited June 15, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Summer of 95]

I have a slight concern that a northward shift of the jet could evolve into the pattern with the Azores High ridging into the extreme south and lows tracking to the north of Scotland. The result of this pattern is often dry weather in eastern and southern England with temperatures near or slightly above average, sunshine near or slightly below, and a near-absence of convective activity.

Anything, ANYTHING but another 3 months of Southeast versus the rest . We've seen enough of that in April and May this year, never mind the last 3 summers. That pattern is to warm sunny weather and thunderstorms here what DDT is to bedbugs.

The Azores High in summer can get stuffed as far as I'm concerned, its 1024mb isobar has seldom had the guts to cross the Bristol Channel since 2006. And even when it's centered just off Cornwall it's only ever sunny and warm in the SE. 21st-Century Spanish Plumes only give cloudy, muggy weather with no thunder or sunshine outside the SE.

What used to work for decent summer weather here is one of those anticyclones that in winter deliver snow galore around London/Kent/Essex, and bright sunny weather elsewhere. But nowadays they just mean North Sea Cloud for all the Midlands and up into the NE.

[Thundery wintry showers]

where would the jetstream be best placed to provide the whole of Britain with a well positioned area of high pressure providing all with-dry, very warm air, blue sunny skies and light winds? that high of course would be centered over us. i know the jet should be north of Scotland in summer and its south in winter-usually over us in south, at the moment its in the wrong place across the UK, and blocking over Greenland stopping the jet moving north, TWS mentioned the azores high and lack of convective activity, this happened last year, and that does worry me! although i would enjoy the sunny warm or hot days, if we had a continental high then this would allow a largerrisk of storms,where would we expect the jet to be to get that setup?

I think the most common "hot and sunny with thunderstorms" type of setup has the Azores High displaced to the west of its usual position, a trough in the Atlantic and high pressure over western Europe. The jet typically takes a SW-NE track over the eastern half of the Atlantic meaning that the main "train" of frontal depressions is kept away to the west and north. The low pressure in the Atlantic makes periodic attempts to extend towards the British Isles resulting in thundery outbreaks as weakening Atlantic systems collide with continental air.

Many of the famous hot dry sunny summers also featured a similar pattern (as noted in Glacier Point's original summer forecast), the difference being that the very dry months have less emphasis on the low pressure in the Atlantic, and high pressure holds firm preventing much in the way of showery/thundery activity from arising. The record-breaking August of 1995 was characterised by this pattern for example.

The pattern of a "flat" northerly tracking jet and frequent ridges from the Azores High can also bring significant spells of warm dry sunny weather, particularly to the south. It tends to be less spectacular temperature and sunshine wise and associated with far less thunder, so is preferable for those after relatively modest warmth, settled weather and absence of heavy rain/thunder.

In practice quite a number of hot dry sunny months feature all three of the above patterns at some stage, as you can easily get to the third pattern from either of the first two if pressure rises in the Atlantic, while if pressure falls there you're back to one of the first two.

[ZONE 51]

Thankyou TWS.

i am especially interested in the jetstream, i have looked into a theory that solar influences on the jet are becoming more actual science then just a possible cause of the unusual pattern of the js but thats another thread!

something thats been on my mind with the summer forecast, i was thinking that the further a field you can get accurate then the further you have long range forecasted!, which would be more rewarding to the forecaster? i would be far more happy to get the 3rd month in then the 1st!

i was also thinking maybe we should show the papers what goes into making lrfs, then the public that are not would be more likely be more respectful for the forecasters.

Edited June 17, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Guest]

I have noticed that in latter years that a warm dry spring is often followed by an indifferent summer, which very often does not settle down until mid or late August - in fact I did remark to a person last April that we would pay later for the fine weather we were getting.

Perhaps there will be a change from the cool maritime air flows this year, say about the end of July, being hopeful and we may be able to enjoy the last month of the official summer season, followed by a mostly dry autumn.

[Staffordshire]

Hey just joined this forum from met monkey, IMO this summer will be a bit if a wash out, some good thundery activity though in July and perhaps a warmer spell at the back end of July and into august.

[chionomaniac]

I just wonder how much GP's pressure anomaly chart in the summer forecast will be out by the end of summer. My guess is not that much and that we will see a steady improvement from here on in, both in the weather and the accuracy of the NW forecast.

The eastward positioning of the Atlantic trough, may have thrown a spanner in the works unfortunately for the first month, but it will be interesting to see where we go from here on in. The signs are there....