El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[cmimrie]

Yes but they did mention a risk of an upgrade to a LVL2 later on should everything fit together as expected.

At this time, a LVL1 threat seems to be sufficient, though an upgrade to LVL2 may be required if the CAPE and shear fields become aligned more favorably, or if CAPE proves to be higher than currently anticipated.

As the storms progress into the Channel and expand across N France, the severe threat should shift to mainly large hail, though the anticipated elevated nature of the storms may limit the overall severe threat somewhat.

[xtwenty5]

ESTOFEX

... SE United Kingdom ... N France ... Benelux ...

It seems that some instability will develop in the pre-frontal air mass across the southern British Isles and western continental Europe as the mid-level lapse rates increase in response to the northward spreading EML. The GFS CAPE values are not to be trusted given suspected problems in the surface-flux scheme that overestimates the diurnal latent-heat flux cycle. ECMWF shows that some 500 - 1000 J/kg of CAPE will develop over the SE British Isles and up to 2000 J/kg over France and the Benelux countries, which seems to be more reasonable than what GFS is advertising.

First storms should develop over the SE British Isles amidst the 850 hPa thermal gradient, probably in the afternoon hours, gradually increasing in coverage as the day/evening progresses. The activity should migrate across the Channel region and expand southwards during the night, when the convection will likely become slightly elevated. It seems that upscale growth into one or more elevated MCSs may occur, affecting extreme N France and the Benelux countries early Tuesday morning.

The severe threat with the convection over the British Isles in the afternoon and evening hours should be dominated by well-organized multicells and supercells given DLS of about 20 m/s (increasing from about 15 m/s over the extreme SE parts of the UK to over 25 m/s over the central portions of the UK) and rather strong LLS (exceeding 10 m/s over the extreme SE UK). However ... CAPE should be weakest where shear is strongest, and vice versa. Also, the LLS maximum is expected where DLS is weakest. Despite these somewhat negative factors, it seems that isolated large hail and damaging winds will occur, and perhaps also a brief tornado or two. At this time, a LVL1 threat seems to be sufficient, though an upgrade to LVL2 may be required if the CAPE and shear fields become aligned more favorably, or if CAPE proves to be higher than currently anticipated.

As the storms progress into the Channel and expand across N France, the severe threat should shift to mainly large hail, though the anticipated elevated nature of the storms may limit the overall severe threat somewhat.

The air mass over the northern portions of France should become rather unstable during the afternoon hours, but it seems that the cap will be strong enough to obstruct widespread convective development. Model guidance suggests isolated convection, and this activity would pose some threat for large hail and damaging winds given some 15 m/s deep shear and MLCAPE of order 2000 J/kg. However, the overall threat should be limited as it seems unlikely that storms can be sustained given strong capping and no focused low-level ascent.

[Paranoid]

The discussion says they may upgrade it to Level 2 if high shear and high CAPE values appear together, currently they don't expect that to happen.

Wow, that was quick, several people already posted that, there was me thinking i was contributing something new .

Edited June 26, 2011 by Paranoid

[Norfolk Sheep]

There will be three of us, scruffy, uncool, unshaven, with binoculars and sunburn. You can't miss us!

I was about to say make that four apart from the binocs...and the unshaven bit....and the sunburn...

[weatherobsuk]

ESTOFEX are just a independent agency like any other, not the "be all and end all" and rely on individual contributions afterall, which in itself is open to interpretation as to what tomorrows events is going to bring (not only focusing on the UK as a whole but all of Europe.) ESTOFEX I mainly rely on for values and added thoughts, but not as a final decision.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well we all got it wrong then! The MCS will go South in France and not north to the UK! ... "First storms should develop over the SE British Isles amidst the 850 hPa thermal gradient, probably in the afternoon hours, gradually increasing in coverage as the day/evening progresses. The activity should migrate across the Channel region and expand southwards during the night, when the convection will likely become slightly elevated. It seems that upscale growth into one or more elevated MCSs may occur, affecting extreme N France and the Benelux countries early Tuesday morning."

[TEITS]

Well we all got it wrong then! The MCS will go South in France and not north to the UK! ... "First storms should develop over the SE British Isles amidst the 850 hPa thermal gradient, probably in the afternoon hours, gradually increasing in coverage as the day/evening progresses. The activity should migrate across the Channel region and expand southwards during the night, when the convection will likely become slightly elevated. It seems that upscale growth into one or more elevated MCSs may occur, affecting extreme N France and the Benelux countries early Tuesday morning."

Nothing has gone wrong.

Like i've said many times, showers will break out across W areas tomorrow afternoon. These potentially developing into storms across many E areas during the evening, especially late evening/midnight. The Northern extent of these storms possibly being around the Humberside area.

In my opinion far too much focus is being placed on a MCS from France. I shall be looking W tomorrow not S for my storms!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm confused by this line "The activity should migrate across the Channel region and expand southwards during the night, when the convection will likely become slightly elevated.".

[weatherobsuk]

The warm tongue is still a while out from the UK just yet, infact just entering the Bay of Biscay now where DPs will no doubt cause intensification to build further, another plus about this time of year is that its only about another 4 hours before the first rays of sunlight starts to hit the tops of the MCS again, adding more fuel to the system by which time it'll be knocking on our door.

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr

[MP-R]

The southwest looks like a good bet for those who are impatient for things to start. Thunderstorms readily building here then moving eastwards through the afternoon. Camera is charging ready for tomorrow. BBC Forecast certainly looked promising.

[Paul Sherman]

I think the Estofex forecast is pretty good for the Uk tbh.

I really feel there is a more than 25% chance of a Supercell somewhere in the UK Tomorrow, most of the parameters we look for in the US Are there, 45-50kts of Deep Layer Shear which IS Sufficient for Supercells, GFS May well be over doing the CAPE (Which it is known for) but you only need 500jkg for Supercells to happen. Remember some stations still have Dp's in the low 60's at the moment and it wont take much for those to mix upwards to the high 60's tomorrow, with the expected mid to high 80's Temperatures expected then I feel the ECMWF Is Under doing the Cape Values and they will be nearer 2,000jkg than the 1,000jkg currently modelled by ECMWF (And this is why Estofex "Might" Upgrade to a Level 2)

MCS Is anyones guess as it always is in these situations, if we get the echoes coming up from near the Channel Islands then it is probably game on, and if it is an Elevated MCS Then that is the nuts for Lightning Photography.

All still to play for and will be in position by early afternoon

Good luck to all and cant wait for the Forecast Nick - Although I have a feeling your Criteria on here will keep it a "Slight Risk"

But i dont blame you in the slighest for waiting for the mornings models runs

[richardc1983]

We did buy one of those portable ones but they are a pain for the sake of 2 days. They are heavy as hell, its just stuck in the back of the garrage doing nothing. Break your back carrying those things up stairs then you gotta have a thing stiking out of the window. Not worth it unless its a 2006 sort of thing. We bought ours during 2006 as we couldn't cope, with the talk of global warming we thought it be a good investment... we havent had any continuous heat since lol

We have air con throughout our flat, we have it mainly for the heating in winter as its very cheap. It is a properly installed system with units on the walls. Temps and humidity like this I am greatful for it! 22C here in Leeds still at this time according to my thermometers and inside is also a nice 21C 50% humidity perfect for sleeping.

All day it has been 22C indoors and 30C outdoors! Has cost me about £1 in electricity for the whole place to be lovely and cool.

We used to have the portable units but they struggled to cool one room and would cost about £7 a day to try to cool a room with all the internal doors closed. When you have the hose sticking out the window you are sucking warm air back into the room from outside to replace the cooled air it is sucking out of the room to cool its innards!

Edited June 26, 2011 by richardc1983

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Issued at - 26 Jun 2011, 19:56

Valid from - 27 Jun 2011, 15:00

Valid to - 28 Jun 2011, 12:00

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in places during Monday afternoon and evening, persisting through into Tuesday. These have the potential to bring localised rainfall totals of 25-50 mm in a few hours, with a risk of flash flooding and large hail.

I like!

[Norfolk Sheep]

The southwest looks like a good bet for those who are impatient for things to start. Thunderstorms readily building here then moving eastwards through the afternoon. Camera is charging ready for tomorrow. BBC Forecast certainly looked promising.

No idea why I bothered to charge mine - the stupid thing has decided not to read any of my CF cards Good thing I've got a couple of spare compacts lying around but a smart visit to the camera hospital first thing is in order

[Wales123098]

No idea why I bothered to charge mine - the stupid thing has decided not to read any of my CF cards Good thing I've got a couple of spare compacts lying around but a smart visit to the camera hospital first thing is in order

If anything does get in to the Cardiff area I'l be watching from a classroom. Typically its my first day back in sixth form in about 2 months after having a period off for exams and work experience and what not. Typical:P Oh well I'm sure Il enjoy what ever I see if I do see anything that is.

We have air con throughout our flat, we have it mainly for the heating in winter as its very cheap. It is a properly installed system with units on the walls. Temps and humidity like this I am greatful for it! 22C here in Leeds still at this time according to my thermometers and inside is also a nice 21C 50% humidity perfect for sleeping.

All day it has been 22C indoors and 30C outdoors! Has cost me about £1 in electricity for the whole place to be lovely and cool.

We used to have the portable units but they struggled to cool one room and would cost about £7 a day to try to cool a room with all the internal doors closed. When you have the hose sticking out the window you are sucking warm air back into the room from outside to replace the cooled air it is sucking out of the room to cool its innards!

Not bad... Im struggling at the moment in my room, temp is 18c outdoors, don't know what is in my bedroom. Well in to the 20s in the larger living room that has not had a computer on all day.... Im cooking in my room. Your right with the portable ones and they cost a bomb to buy too, their better than ordinary fans but the fitted ones are far better.

Edited June 26, 2011 by Wales123098

[richardc1983]

Well having looked at estofex forecast nothing looks to be on for Leeds whereas the MetO have a severe weather working for Yorkshire and Humberside.

Its currently 22C here in Leeds and has been 30C today yet the MetO have not got these figures right for our area and they seem to think it has been cooler than that today. Dont expect temps to drop any lower than 20C tonight.

I am expecting a 33C tmrw as we seem to match the same temps where I am in Leeds as we do with London. LS15 for reference.

Edited June 26, 2011 by richardc1983

[weatherobsuk]

Oddly enough the Met Office have extended the warning yet again further North to include Tyneside, yet completely ignore the fact on their mountain forecast the Brecon Beacons have a Medium risk of Thunderstorms breaking out for the same watch period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mountainsafety/brecon/brecon_latest_pressure.html

[richardc1983]

Not bad... Im struggling at the moment in my room, temp is 18c outdoors, don't know what is in my bedroom. Well in to the 20s in the larger living room that has not had a computer on all day.... Im cooking in my room. Your right with the portable ones and they cost a bomb to buy too, their better than ordinary fans but the fitted ones are far better.

Your best bet if its 18C outdoors is to try and get that air indoors... put a fan near the open window on the window sill and enjoy the cool breeze!

[paul m]

Well having looked at estofex forecast nothing looks to be on for Leeds whereas the MetO have a severe weather working for Yorkshire and Humberside.

Its currently 22C here in Leeds and has been 30C today yet the MetO have not got these figures right for our area and they seem to think it has been cooler than that today. Dont expect temps to drop any lower than 20C tonight.

I am expecting a 33C tmrw as we seem to match the same temps where I am in Leeds as we do with London. LS15 for reference.

Met office shows East yorkshire and not us in the west

[TEITS]

Well having looked at estofex forecast nothing looks to be on for Leeds whereas the MetO have a severe weather working for Yorkshire and Humberside.

Its currently 22C here in Leeds and has been 30C today yet the MetO have not got these figures right for our area and they seem to think it has been cooler than that today. Dont expect temps to drop any lower than 20C tonight.

I am expecting a 33C tmrw as we seem to match the same temps where I am in Leeds as we do with London. LS15 for reference.

Nobody offcially recorded 30C today. The highest temp was 29.2C in London. The max temp in your area was 28.2C.

I doubt 33C will be reached tomorrow, maybe 31C in London.

[richardc1983]

Met office shows East yorkshire and not us in the west

Well thats rained on my parade!

[paul m]

Well thats rained on my parade!

Just like the level 1 storm risk today did to me!!!!. Never mind still the chance of something later on in the day here

[richardc1983]

Nobody offcially recorded 30C today. The highest temp was 29.2C in London. The max temp in your area was 28.2C.

I doubt 33C will be reached tomorrow, maybe 31C in London.

The official stats are silly I know what it got upto in my garden. I am at work at the moment and our building management system recorded 29.6C so I know this area got upto those temps. Given how much heat is still out there I expect it to be higher tmrw as the temps that were reached today started out at 14C in the morning.

[Wales123098]

Temperature is rising here....... up 1c in the last hour to 19c. 20c still at Cardiff-Wales airport in the Vale of Glam. Must be 21c in the central urban bit of Cardiff. Thats very warm for this time of night considering where not in the SE of England.

[TEITS]

The official stats are silly I know what it got upto in my garden. I am at work at the moment and our building management system recorded 29.6C so I know this area got upto those temps. Given how much heat is still out there I expect it to be higher tmrw as the temps that were reached today started out at 14C in the morning.

My own garden recorded 33C today but I know that isn't an accurate figure. My point is when it comes to max temps I always stick with the official weather stations.

I will also add that under these conditions it will always be difficult to match the max temps in London for obvious reasons i.e heat island effect.