El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[Harry]

Don't worry.

These guys write their PhD's on the back of what's published - they just want to be correct. No problem, there. A forecast will come out, and, personally, I would go for a Level 3 surrounding by Level 2, surrounded by Level 1.

I suspect they're procrastinating on location rather than activity, as well as resolving observed vs model data.

A level 3? Really?

If so, but in terms of odds I'd say Level 1 only at 60% and Level 2 at 38%...I'd say a 2% probability of a level 3. Estofex tend to reserve Level 3's to supercells.

Edited June 26, 2011 by Harry

[Nick F]

Stick to this thread for discussion, forecasts and observations on the 'fat one' El Gordo!

... or will be it El Gordon?

... though still looking good from GFS, UKMO, and UKMO for storms to develop across SE England, E Anglia, E Midlands and perhaps Lincs tomorrow night into Tuesday morning.

[Staffordshire]

Do estofex normally nail it?

[VillagePlank]

A level 3? Really?

If so, but in terms of odds I'd say Level 1 only at 60% and Level 2 and 38%...I'd say a 2% probability of a level 3. Estofex tend to reserve Level 3's to supercells.

However, I can see a tongue of level 3 emanating from the continent. The Theta-E's support this as does the likely movement of the front and surface temperature. Also, dewpoints are ridiculously high by UK standards. It seems to me that just a nudge would go for Level 3.

Defo, though, a Level 2. I'd be gobsmacked to not see a Level 2 for somewhere in the UK - CAPE is indicative of large hail, the MetO have gone for a risk of large hail ....

Edited June 26, 2011 by Sparticle

[A.J]

the west midlands to miss out on this, the best chance is for all Eastern areas say no further west than Nottingham, Anyhere E, SE , NE of around nottingham will get lucky

the west midlands (at least here) never does well from hot spells, the best setup is a general unstable showery setup, like 9th may 2011

Blimey Mark, sometimes your negative style of posting really makes me feel depressed after reading....!....You've obviously forgotton the last plume type setup through the bulk of the UK...It was only 6 or 7 weeks ago (May 6th) and those flashes and bangs that you saw that night weren't fireworks!

Whilst we're not forecasted to have the potential of strong/severe thunderstorms tomorrow, we certainly have potential of elevated storms tomorrow!

Here's a link to a very good synoptic summary for the next 24-36 hours over on UKWW.... here

[VillagePlank]

Do estofex normally nail it?

Not really a question since they forecast for a given area, such as within 40km of any point, which means even if you are under the area, you might see nothing.

[Costa Del Fal]

the west midlands to miss out on this, the best chance is for all Eastern areas say no further west than Nottingham, Anyhere E, SE , NE of around nottingham will get lucky

the west midlands (at least here) never does well from hot spells, the best setup is a general unstable showery setup, like 9th may 2011

I disagree, maybe different in your part of the region but when winds have been Southerly based (SE/SW etc) we have done very well in recent times. I would say we do stand a good chance in the daytime with the risk moving away by late evening.

The risk is certainly not nil.

[tomp456]

day trip to france, anyone? due to costs i'll be swimming the channel.

[Harry]

Do estofex normally nail it?

There was a very informative post a few pages back re estofex accuracy.

In terms of severe events, they are normally quite good. In respect of generic thunderstorm activity, far less so.

You can tell on here though by the anticipation that people do think quite highly of Estofex's views, including me. I've never seen a Level 2 over the UK in the best part of 6 years being a keen internet follower...will this be the first?

[Costa Del Fal]

Blimey Mark, sometimes your negative style of posting really makes me feel depressed after reading....!....You've obviously forgotton the last plume type setup through the bulk of the UK...It was only 6 or 7 weeks ago (May 6th) and those flashes and bangs that you saw that night weren't fireworks!

Whilst we're not forecasted to have the potential of strong/severe thunderstorms tomorrow, we certainly have potential of elevated storms tomorrow!

Here's a link to a very good synoptic summary for the next 24-36 hours over on UKWW.... here

I totally agree, that was great line of storms for those West of Birmingham and an great example of what often seems to deliver from Southerly/SSW winds etc. 28th July 2008 was very similar in that respect.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I would LOL so much if France had all the action..Like massive storms lots of CTG lightning and we get light showers..I WOULD LAUGH SO MUCH !!! THEN I WOULD GO MAD!!!!!!!!!!!!

HERE IS TO ALL TOMORROW !!!! FINGERS CROSSED!!!!

[A.J]

Interestingly, the latest Estofex forecast only covers the peroid 00z tuesday to 00z wednesday, I am surprised they haven't updated the forecast for tomorrow

Extended Forecast

Valid: Tue 28 Jun 2011 06:00 to Wed 29 Jun 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 26 Jun 2011 18:41

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for NE-France, Belgium and the Netherlands mainly for large to very large hail (>5 cm in diameter) and severe to damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 runs from extreme NE-Spain all the way to Norway mainly for large to isolated very large hail, strong to severe wind gusts and excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for E-Poland/Slovakia/Hungary, Belarus and extreme W-Russia mainly for isolated large hail/severe wind gusts and tornado reports. Later-on an excessive rainfall risk will be present.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the Ukraine mainly for an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

An extensive upper trough over Ireland, Scotland and UK moves slowly eastwards during the forecast with a weakening downstream ridge present over parts of central Europe. An active cyclonic vortex over SE-Europe reveals a slight retrograde movement to the west with widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast.

DISCUSSION

... The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and parts of France ...

Upper-level forcing will be quite weak with a neutral tilted trough over the UK. Some model discrepancies concerning eastward progression remain with GFS the faster one in contrast to EZ, CMC and NOGAPS. However all models despite NOGAPS agree in scattered to widespread initiation along a slowly eastward moving cold front, which crosses the highlighted areas during the forecast from west to east. Also, the right entrance of a 40 m/s 300 hPa jet overspreads the region with additional high-level divergence. Hence, widespread initiation seems likely. FNMOC EFS and NCEP ENS mean (QPF) both agree well in highest precipitation probabilities over the S-North Sea with decreasing values over Benelux and E-France....but still augmented enough for high confidence for initiation along the eastward moving cold front. A final uncertainty arises with GFS/WRF, which develop a weak depression over Benelux, which could regionally enhance the wind field somewhat. This potential feature has to be followed closely in future model runs.

Prefrontal air mass over Benelux and E-France is characterized by rich moisture in the lower troposphere with 925 hPa dewpoints around 18°C and surface Tds in excess of 20 °C. Atop, EML fans out over the area of interest with decreasing mid-level lapse rates, but vertical temperature decrease remains strong enough for abundant CAPE build-up. While whopping 4000 J/kg MLCAPE of GFS seems unlikely, we expect 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over the level 1 area with up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE next to the surface boundary, where moisture pooling will be maximized (e.g. level 2 area). EZ agrees well with that scenario.

Shear remains weak over E-France but increases to 15-20 m/s 0-6 km DLS over central/NE-France and Benelux. Same with 0-3 km shear. Again, potential development of a weak surface depression over Benelux may modify kinematic environment.

Rapid to explosive thunderstorm development along the eastward moving cold front is forecast. Over central/E-France, thunderstorms will probably organize into multicells with severe downbursts and large to very large hail, especially when they remain more discrete for a longer period of time. Main concern arises over NE-France and Benelux, where indices for strong cold pool development exist. In addition, strong unidirectional shear will be present, so rapidly developing thunderstorms are forecast, which tend to line-up. Large to very large hail (> 5 cm hail in diameter) and severe wind gusts are expected. Betimes, bowing segments with swaths of severe to damaging wind gusts may evolve. Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible as thunderstorms from central France also move in during the late evening hours and onwards. Despite weak forcing and the possibility of rapid thunderstorm clustering, we think a scarce SWODY-2 level 2 is justified for this set-up, given augmented probabilities for damaging hail.

... Norway and parts of Sweden ...

Unstable air mass spreads northeastwards ahead of the major upper trough and also affects most parts of Norway. 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-20 m/s DLS overlap, so multicells are expected with large hail and severe wind gusts the main risk. No level was yet issued for that activity, as thermodynamics may be too marginal. Later data has to be evaluated for a potential upgrade.

During the evening and night hours, large thunderstorm clusters from the activity further to the southwest may affect S-Norway with heavy rainfall the main hazard. A level 1 was issued for that activity.

... Belarus and eastwards, extreme E-Poland/Slovakia/Hungary, Ukraine ...

A quasi-stationary /marginal westward moving upper low advects a moist and warm air mass westwards, affecting Belarus and parts of extreme W-Russia during the forecast. Roughly 800 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-20 m/s DLS overlap with mutlicells/isolated supercells forecast. Large hail and severe wind gusts accompany those thunderstorms with an enhanced tornado risk during the evening hours, as LL shear/SRH-1 increase. A concentrated outbreak of organized convection is possible over extreme E-Poland, W-Ukraine, SW Belarus and E-Slovakia/Hungary, if GFS 06Z/12Z scenario verifies. During the evening hours, numerous clusters may be ongoing with an augmented chance for training thunderstorms (excessive rainfall well possible).

Also, BL shear (speed/directional) over the Ukraine will be supportive for a few tornado reports as roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE evolve. However, the overall tornado risk depends heavily on the final strength of the surface depression.

[Harry]

I would LOL so much if France had all the action..Like massive storms lots of CTG lightning and we get light showers..I WOULD LAUGH SO MUCH !!! THEN I WOULD GO MAD!!!!!!!!!!!!

HERE IS TO ALL TOMORROW !!!! FINGERS CROSSED!!!!

V good indeed!!! Same here

[VillagePlank]

There was a very informative post a few pages back re estofex accuracy.

In terms of severe events, they are normally quite good. In respect of generic thunderstorm activity, far less so.

You can tell on here though by the anticipation that people do think quite highly of Estofex's views, including me. I've never seen a Level 2 over the UK in the best part of 6 years being a keen internet follower...will this be the first?

Were you not a member when we have the Medway Sausage? I'm sure a quick peruse might jog your head ...

[camiscool]

Why have estofex Put us not in the warning zone?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

V good indeed!!! Same here

[VillagePlank]

Why have estofex Put us not in the warning zone?

Because they haven't released a forecast for the key period. another note - they are not a warning body, that relies on the MetO to forecast, and the Beeb to transmit.

I think I may fall over in a fit ... can we stop flashy messages?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I would go to france with a couple of people...I have the dosh..But..I don't have a car YET !

[Harry]

Were you not a member when we have the Medway Sausage? I'm sure a quick peruse might jog your head ...

Can you remember the approx date (year and maybe mobth)? Then will trawl their archives.

I've only lived here since early May this year

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Because they haven't released a forecast for the key period. another note - they are not a warning body, that relies on the MetO to forecast, and the Beeb to transmit.

I think I may fall over in a fit ... can we stop flashy messages?

Yeh I just stopped but I thought I might make things less boring and MORE FLASHY!!!

[VillagePlank]

Can you remember the approx date (year and maybe mobth)? Then will trawl their archives.

I've only lived here since early May this year

A few years ago, now: NetW search doesn't return anything - we had strobe lightning for about an hour ...

[camiscool]

Why would they put a warning up for the day after.

[Chris K]

Maybe they haven't done tomorrows yet, because we are really all in for a big treat of a light show, but they dont want to tell us and keep it a surprise?

[Sprites]

lol ,if this turns out to be a Kent Clipper, there will be alot of bored and angry people watching the radar...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Maybe they haven't done tomorrows yet, because we are really all in for a big treat of a light show, but they dont want to tell us and keep it a surprise?

I like that idea..