El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[Cableguy]

Well looking at the latest BBC forecast no MCS for the SE, looks to be reliant on storms pushing West to East, on the upside at least they should arrive late evening/first part of the night, rather than sit up all night watching an MCS push up from Northern France only for it to take a sharp right turn as it enters the channel!

[MikeUpjohn]

BBC forecast had showers breaking out in south west England, moving N/NE/E, turning thundery has they move into the south and east Midlands, and becoming intense and growing in Eastern England and East Anglia!

Roughly how, IMO, things will turn out!!

I will believe it when I see it I guess. It doesn't seem humid at all here, just quite warm.

Mike.

[DanN]

Could you post some of the NMM charts as I would be most grateful.

I agree with Blizzards the charts look excellent for the Midlands. Infact I reckon the Midlands are better placed than the far S/SE.

Are we allowed to post any (anybody?).

From what I can work out, from my limited knowledge of things, it looks the most promising location too me but that trough further south on the fax charts is catching my eye (some dryer air around 850mb showing as well down south). From around 12pm from Birmingham to the wash shows some good lift (700hpa velocities) and a big lump of precip (1pm) with some nice deep layer shear available.

That's how I interpreted it anyway!

[TEITS]

Are we allowed to post any (anybody?).

From what I can work out, from my limited knowledge of things, it looks the most promising location too me but that trough further south on the fax charts is catching my eye (some dryer air around 850mb showing as well down south). From around 12pm from Birmingham to the wash shows some good lift (700hpa velocities) and a big lump of precip (1pm) with some nice deep layer shear available.

That's how I interpreted it anyway!

Thanks for getitng back to me.

I should really purchase NW extra for situations like these.

[Guest]

I'd like to know what exactly the NMM is showing, but my coinage is going on petrol tomorrow.

Maybe just one key afternoon chart?

[Dorsetbred]

Some odd weather phenomena out there on the Eastbourne coast this afternoon. Confined to the area from Pevensey Bay to Beachy Head, a terrific thick sea harr was just on the shore and no more than 2 miles out. Must have been the damp air over the Channel and the heat from the lovely sun this afternoon - not seen this for a while (I hope it is an omen for tomorrow!!)

Looked a little similar this morning out over the channel in Bournemouth this morning, as the mist / sea mist receded off the mainland back into the channel as it burnt off.

[weatherobsuk]

I think people are relying too much on the BBC forecast plotting a individual cell to break out slap-bang over their house. In reality all they can do is the same as anyone else chasing the outbreak tomorrow and watch the same CAPE/lift charts then base a crude forecast 24hr out of that outlier. The closer it gets to the storms initiating obviously the better we'll know what area's will be affected overall but right now were talking about regions than individual counties, nevermind as resolute as towns/cities.

[MikeUpjohn]

I think people are relying too much on the BBC forecast plotting a individual cell to break out slap-bang over their house. In reality all they can do is the same as anyone else chasing the outbreak tomorrow and watch the same CAPE/lift charts then base a crude forecast 24hr out of that outlier. The closer it gets to the storms initiating obviously the better we'll know what area's will be affected overall but right now were talking about regions than individual counties, nevermind as resolute as towns/cities.

Yeah, I should probably look at this more in this way, just sitting around hoping is doing my nut in. So will just do whatever I normally do, and await the thunder, rather than chase it.

[DanN]

I'd like to know what exactly the NMM is showing, but my coinage is going on petrol tomorrow.

Maybe just one key afternoon chart?

Do Netweather run a commission scheme I don't want to upset anybody by posting them!

[Guest]

Good post Snow Joke. The problem I get in these situations, when I want to chase, is that there is too much info, and too many opinions, including my own (which is swayed and doubted very easily!) meaning I have no clue what to do. I have looked at a few charts and forecasts, and to me the best areas look to be the Wash, and further south towards the Fens, with parts of the E.Mids in between.

I am having difficulty knowing where to position myself for tomorrow. First idea was Wicken Fen National Trust reserve, then I though that might be a little far east at first, so I though somewhere around Bedford (Willington), and now I'm back towards Wicken Fen again! Even now I'm doubting this and thinking the best storms will be north of there?!

I'm a mess haha!

[Static Prevails]

Good post Snow Joke. The problem I get in these situations, when I want to chase, is that there is too much info, and too many opinions, including my own (which is swayed and doubted very easily!) meaning I have no clue what to do. I have looked at a few charts and forecasts, and to me the best areas look to be the Wash, and further south towards the Fens, with parts of the E.Mids in between.

I am having difficulty knowing where to position myself for tomorrow. First idea was Wicken Fen National Trust reserve, then I though that might be a little far east at first, so I though somewhere around Bedford (Willington), and now I'm back towards Wicken Fen again! Even now I'm doubting this and thinking the best storms will be north of there?!

I'm a mess haha!

What are your thoughts for closer to here getting some storms?

[DanN]

Good post Snow Joke. The problem I get in these situations, when I want to chase, is that there is too much info, and too many opinions, including my own (which is swayed and doubted very easily!) meaning I have no clue what to do. I have looked at a few charts and forecasts, and to me the best areas look to be the Wash, and further south towards the Fens, with parts of the E.Mids in between.

I am having difficulty knowing where to position myself for tomorrow. First idea was Wicken Fen National Trust reserve, then I though that might be a little far east at first, so I though somewhere around Bedford (Willington), and now I'm back towards Wicken Fen again! Even now I'm doubting this and thinking the best storms will be north of there?!

I'm a mess haha!

haha my thoughts exactly lol. But I think i'll just pick a location after tonight's model runs and go for it. If I'm wrong then at least (hopefully) I would have learnt something from the process.

[Dorsetbred]

What ever happened to the GOOD OL' SPANISH plume, heading in over Biscay then over sharry borgs and then hitting the south of england. This lookalike lacks the style and feel of a Spanish Plume :o

[Guest]

What are your thoughts for closer to here getting some storms?

A pretty good chance, but I just fancy positioning myself where the chance is highest (ie further south and east). I wouldn't be surprised at all though if you saw a storm tomorrow. A large portion of England is at risk of catching a storm tomorrow.

haha my thoughts exactly lol. But I think i'll just pick a location after tonight's model runs and go for it. If I'm wrong then at least (hopefully) I would have learnt something from the process.

Yeah I'll end up doing that. I'm definitely going to travel, it's just having confidence in picking a decent spot! :wacko::lol:

[Static Prevails]

A pretty good chance, but I just fancy positioning myself where the chance is highest (ie further south and east). I wouldn't be surprised at all though if you saw a storm tomorrow. A large portion of England is at risk of catching a storm tomorrow.

Thanks. It's generally what I was thinking. The most severe storms will probably be further south, but I may still have a very good chance of having a good storm.

[Harry]

Well, that's interesting.

John Hammond just on News 24 suggests that there will indeed be thundery imports. Indeed the graphics were more indicative of localised clusters rather than an MCS mass. Most poignant statement was "some will get some isolated downpours, others longer spells lasting much of the night"...also interesting point was that he thinks (or the MetO think) the warm thundery plume could hang on across the east for much of Tuesday with temps of circa 26C

Was not keen on much breaking out west of the midlands however, and certainly put no emphasis ANYWHERE of the potential intensity of any storms that develop....

Uncertainty I think is an understatement IMO! You would think it was a normal 1000-1500 CAPE, weak sheared plume storm system....

Furthermore, a substantial disparity between the 2-3 days in advance MetO watch (the text of which has 'upgraded', the coverage widened etc) and the nature of their written forecasts and not least the BBC's!!

Curious to know what Estofex et al will make of it.

I personally am expecting a Level 1 from Estofex with perhaps a 2 over France...with the usual tag line "this may be upgraded if it becomes clearer organised severe potential looks likely"

Edited June 26, 2011 by Harry

[paul m]

Well im thinking and it hurts

[Roger J Smith]

The attached map illustrates my earlier verbal forecast with categories for severe, strong, moderate, weak and isolated thunderstorm potential. No attempt has been made to predict storms away from the cluster in England and France.

Map applies to the time frame Monday 12z to Tuesday 00z although I expect the activity to continue with a slow eastward drift until around 06z, then of course it would redevelop further east in Holland, Belgium, Germany and eastern France on Tuesday. At that point the southeast may still be under the back edge of the retreating front with further heavy rain.

For "severe" I would say frequent lightning, large hail potential, 25-50 mms rain.

For "strong" frequent lightning, small hail potential, 15-25 mms rain.

For "moderate" zone expect lightning, slight chance hail, 10-20 mms rain.

For "weak" zone expect a few lightning strikes and 5-10 mms rain.

The "isolated" thunder zone implies a few places may have a weak storm.

Note that the time frame allows for earlier thunder to be observed further west than shown on the map.

[DanN]

Yeah I'll end up doing that. I'm definitely going to travel, it's just having confidence in picking a decent spot! :wacko::lol:

Well if it's of any use I'm thinking along the same areas you pointed out, for the moment anyway. Maybe one other person can share in my bust then!

Edited June 26, 2011 by danuk

[Harry]

The attached map illustrates my earlier verbal forecast with categories for severe, strong, moderate, weak and isolated thunderstorm potential. No attempt has been made to predict storms away from the cluster in England and France.

Map applies to the time frame Monday 12z to Tuesday 00z although I expect the activity to continue with a slow eastward drift until around 06z, then of course it would redevelop further east in Holland, Belgium, Germany and eastern France on Tuesday. At that point the southeast may still be under the back edge of the retreating front with further heavy rain.

For "severe" I would say frequent lightning, large hail potential, 25-50 mms rain.

For "strong" frequent lightning, small hail potential, 15-25 mms rain.

For "moderate" zone expect lightning, slight chance hail, 10-20 mms rain.

For "weak" zone expect a few lightning strikes and 5-10 mms rain.

The "isolated" thunder zone implies a few places may have a weak storm.

Note that the time frame allows for earlier thunder to be observed further west than shown on the map.

Excellent, thanks a lot Roger

You've lifted my spirits after the relative doom and gloom that's developed in this once buzzing thread

Do you have any views regarding the nature of any storm development, i.e whether isolated cells or indeed an MCS style feature may develo?

[Mike Storm]

many thanks Roger. As a South East Londoner I sure hope you are right

[Harry]

http://estofex.org/

This is NOT good news!!!!!!

:cray:

NOT EVEN A 50% HATCH!!!!!

SORRY!!!! Jumped the gun - that's for Tuesday (interestingly...decided not to do Monday's yet!!!??? )

Edited June 26, 2011 by Harry

[DanN]

Estofex is out for tomorrow...

[VillagePlank]

I am expecting widespread thunderstorms for E Anglia, E Midlands, Essex, London, E Sussex, and Kent. Some of those places will, I think, see frequent CG, and, potentially, large hail. Note - this is a large geographic area, so watching the radar, and the ascents as they come out are essential.

The possibility of a French MCS import is intriguing, but that will only verified by radar. Oddly, I think it might occur by advection rather than steering winds given the forecast instability.

[weatherobsuk]

ESTOFEX is for Tuesday. They've completely skipped over Monday..for now.