El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[VillagePlank]

From the Met Office

Monday:

After a bright start further east, increasing amounts of cloud will bring a risk of thundery showers through the afternoon, particularly across Dorset, Wiltshire and Gloucestershire. Maximum temperature 24 °C.

Updated: 1810 on Sun 26 Jun 2011

So I wouldn't give up just yet! Although admittedly, as time goes by its looking less and less likely! Still makes good radar watching tomorrow!!

I hope not - I'd like the air crossing over to be nice and cold, thank-you!!

Besides what's not to look forward, too:

c

(apart from K index and TT being really normal! Need more. Need more)

(and there's a chance of low level cloud cover killing off all that potential )

EDIT: We know that the surface will be greater than 25.4C, so we know that the atmosphere will be more unstable than this chart. Chin up, all

Edited June 26, 2011 by Sparticle

[Harry]

If indeed the CF is slowing slightly, I think the GFS 12z is a bit of an outlier...the CAPE/LI spread on the 12z would indicate the CF pretty much clearing the SE at around 21z Monday to 00z Tuesday. This I think is a bit too hasty given other sources, FAX chart not least.

I suspect the 18z to pull the highest CAPE back further West with perhaps remaining post frontal storm activity across EA/SE on Tuesday.

[DanN]

As Roger explained, the main trigger is the front travelling eastwards across the UK - this changes the lapse rates (how temp changes with height with it being colder aloft and hotter at the surface)

So you could say if the front is showing to produce enough lift (for precip/storms etc earlier in the day) then that 'space' will need to be filled from somewhere. The southerly flow would then introduce more potentially unstable air from France? In theory anyway...

[Snowangel-MK]

.............................so I though somewhere around Bedford (Willington),

I'm a mess haha!

Is that the National Trust dovecote and stables ? That's about half hour from here and is the sort of area I was looking at, so if you see a Suzuki Grand Vitara it might be me

I was hoping for Dunstable Downs but I think that's not far enough East now .........I'm confused too and so desperate not to miss anything that's within a few miles of here, I know it's no good sitting here and expecting the storms to come to me, but at this stage I have no idea where the best place to chase will be !!

[VillagePlank]

If indeed the CF is slowing slightly, I think the GFS 12z is a bit of an outlier...the CAPE/LI spread on the 12z would indicate the CF pretty much clearing the SE at around 21z Monday to 00z Tuesday. This I think is a bit too hasty given other sources, FAX chart not least.

I suspect the 18z to pull the highest CAPE back further West with perhaps remaining post frontal storm activity across EA/SE on Tuesday.

Yes, but the chances are that we will advect 'potential' from northern France.

[PolarWarsaw]

I'm still all a bit 'Hmmm' over the situation regarding tommorow. My negative side would say, I'm not excited because I can see this western area of the midlands missing out whilst the east midlands get's the brunt of a batch of severe storms. My positive side says, at least it should turn out to be a decent day of radar watching.

[AWD]

I hope not - I'd like the air crossing over to be nice and cold, thank-you!!

Besides what's not to look forward, too:

c

(apart from K index and TT being really normal! Need more. Need more)

(and there's a chance of low level cloud cover killing off all that potential )

My Post was from an "IMBY" perspective! Plenty to look forward to further east!!

And still interesting radar watching tomorrow for my region!! Im hoping for something but not expecting, to save dissappointment!!

There is potential pretty much anywhere though!!

[VillagePlank]

So you could say if the front is showing to produce enough lift (for precip/storms etc earlier in the day) then that 'space' will need to be filled from somewhere. The southerly flow would then introduce more potentially unstable air from France? In theory anyway...

For the SE we want the front to be as different in temps before and ahead as absolutely possible. In that case, if it happens, CIN will break, and that CAPE will come to fruition.

Otherwise we really relying on French imports - and that doesn't look the most likely yet (advection looks likely, mind) - although, it seems, that's what the Beeb are going for since they are going for after dusk storms.

I'm still all a bit 'Hmmm' over the situation regarding tommorow. My negative side would say, I'm not excited because I can see this western area of the midlands missing out whilst the east midlands get's the brunt of a batch of severe storms. My positive side says, at least it should turn out to be a decent day of radar watching.

Sensible post. There are some parameters that are NOT condusive to t/storm formation.

Edited June 26, 2011 by Sparticle

[Staffordshire]

Hey harry, don't really understand that, but you say the front slowing, would that enhance chances of storms here?

[Harry]

Hey harry, don't really understand that, but you say the front slowing, would that enhance chances of storms here?

Not so much slowing as passing through slightly later than initially thought, if that makes sense.

It's all well and good advecting unstable air, but if GFS is progging the max instability to drift east a bit quicker than earlier runs have been suggesting (still around midnight Tuesday which isn't bad at all), this is less good (but nevertheless decent scope for storms!). I was merely pointing out that I think in this regard the 12z is a bit erroneous and that our potential will last for longer than 12z is perhaps suggesting...it was a minor remark which I wouldn't pay much attention to ultimately, lol.

[lottiekent]

I know the Beeb are not great at forecasts but I can't imagine I'm the only one waiting for the Country File forecast in a bit? Depending on the forecaster it may shed a bit of light on what they are thinking about the set up tomorrow

[thundercrazy]

Hello all, have been lurking on here for the last couple of years, given the possible event coming up i decided to at last get in on the action!

Firstly thanks to all of you for your posts, has made great reading and an excellentt source of info.

Very excited about the next couple of days potential, has anyone noticed the recent explosion of storms over Portugal and northern Spain, this must be a good sign for tommorow?

As for Estofex i have viewed the forecasts from them every day for as long as i can remember and i have NEVER seen them skip a day like that, i guess there must be an awful lot of head scratching going on?

[Norfolk Sheep]

Good post Snow Joke. The problem I get in these situations, when I want to chase, is that there is too much info, and too many opinions, including my own (which is swayed and doubted very easily!) meaning I have no clue what to do. I have looked at a few charts and forecasts, and to me the best areas look to be the Wash, and further south towards the Fens, with parts of the E.Mids in between.

I am having difficulty knowing where to position myself for tomorrow. First idea was Wicken Fen National Trust reserve, then I though that might be a little far east at first, so I though somewhere around Bedford (Willington), and now I'm back towards Wicken Fen again! Even now I'm doubting this and thinking the best storms will be north of there?!

I'm a mess haha!

*passes Steve some Valium*

[Sunny Android]

The Metoffice charts have the Cold front reaching the welsh coast by 12 noon yet only reaches the welsh/english border by midnight... 12 hours to cross Wales .... slow I'd say.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the west midlands to miss out on this, the best chance is for all Eastern areas say no further west than Nottingham, Anyhere E, SE , NE of around nottingham will get lucky

the west midlands (at least here) never does well from hot spells, the best setup is a general unstable showery setup, like 9th may 2011

[VillagePlank]

As for Estofex i have viewed the forecasts from them every day for as long as i can remember and i have NEVER seen them skip a day like that, i guess there must be an awful lot of head scratching going on?

Don't worry.

These guys write their PhD's on the back of what's published - they just want to be correct. No problem, there. A forecast will come out, and, personally, I would go for a Level 3 surrounding by Level 2, surrounded by Level 1.

I suspect they're procrastinating on location rather than activity, as well as resolving observed vs model data.

[Roger J Smith]

As far as the frontal situation goes, watch for the present front in Ireland to lose definition overnight and early tomorrow with a new frontal trough developing further east. Cooler marine air is likely to flood into the west and also into western France during the morning and by about 15z this new front will be dominant lying from about Lincs south to just west of Heathrow then possibly bulging somewhat further east before curving back to the south-southwest across the Channel into north central France. The old front at that point will be a secondary cold front parallel out to the west (it may still have some activity).

As shallow low pressure forms over eastern England watch for a development of meso-scale low pressure in the southeast and also development of the MCS.

Can't wait to see how this actually plays out, as several have commented, the temperature dew point situation over southeast England is quite unusual and in some ways the weak pressure gradient helps to fire off the potential later since it should remain clear and heat up to the maximum potential ahead of the frontal trough.

[VillagePlank]

The Metoffice charts have the Cold front reaching the welsh coast by 12 noon yet only reaches the welsh/english border by midnight... 12 hours to cross Wales .... slow I'd say.

Yes - which is why the beeb are going for no storms until after dusk. The potential in front of the front, however, is something else entirely. Home grown storms? Definitely. Severe, probably not until the front passes ....

[DanN]

For the SE we want the front to be as different in temps before and ahead as absolutely possible. In that case, if it happens, CIN will break, and that CAPE will come to fruition.

Thanks, interesting stuff. NMM doesn't show the front close enough (going by the 850 temps) by the time most of the instability looks to have moved eastwards.

Just see Rogers other post about the front and a new trough so I'll ignore my statement above for now!

Edited June 26, 2011 by danuk

[DAVID SNOW]

*passes Steve some Valium*

I think you may need to pass him the sheep dog,to try and reduce his chase area

[VillagePlank]

Can't wait to see how this actually plays out, as several have commented, the temperature dew point situation over southeast England is quite unusual and in some ways the weak pressure gradient helps to fire off the potential later since it should remain clear and heat up to the maximum potential ahead of the frontal trough.

Yes, I think t/storms will occur. The more severe type, though, are completely dependent on location location location. I'm not so sure some areas will stay clear, however. The Tdd look good towards the surface, and one might expect some fog that takes a while to clear ...

[LadyEv06]

Really hoping I'm in for a chance tomorrow!

MetO for Monday in East Mids: Variable cloud will allow sunshine at times and it will become very warm again. Showers are expected later, these becoming locally heavy and thundery, especially in the evening. More breezy. Maximum temperature 28 °C.

[jimbo36]

TODAY I'LL BE MOSTLY FORECASTING THE BEST PLACE FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW......AND THAT WILL BE.............................

TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA SAUCEPAN HANDLES :yahoo:

[thundercrazy]

Don't worry.

These guys write their PhD's on the back of what's published - they just want to be correct. No problem, there. A forecast will come out, and, personally, I would go for a Level 3 surrounding by Level 2, surrounded by Level 1.

I suspect they're procrastinating on location rather than activity, as well as resolving observed vs model data.

A level 3, oh my lord we can but hope!!

I'm down in the Portsmouth area so at least expecting decent light show.

[VillagePlank]

Thanks, interesting stuff. NMM doesn't show the front close enough (going by the 850 temps) by the time most of the instability looks to have moved eastwards.

Don't forget CAPE and LI remain for nearly 36 hours - this means potential for an awful long time for UK standards. You still have CAPE of over 900j/kg after midnight tomorrow IN my view (and my experience) very rare indeed. Certainly not seen before the internet age. Amazing weather porn.

Edited June 26, 2011 by Sparticle