El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[Static Prevails]

Dronfield My link

''Dronfield is a town in North East Derbyshire''.

It's very close to the borders, but anyway, I digress!

What time will the Netweather forecast for tomorrow be out?

[weatherobsuk]

Definitely happy to have the opportunity to be west of Peterborough tomorrow, with a quick transit along the A47 if need be. Going to have to call it a night soon as up early tomorrow for finalisations & hopefully a scan through the TORRO/ESTOFEX thoughts. Want to hit the road before the rush hour aswell as to find a good vantage spot.

[SimonP]

@ Buckster 76: That's an extended forecast issued today for Tuesday, not Monday. Monday's one hasn't been released yet for whatever reason...

A quick look at the Estofex archives reveal they can issue storm forecasts quite late in the day, early hours even. Perhaps they want to see 18Z/00Z model runs before issuance of a forecast.

[Harry]

Using the estofex criteria, this is my view of tomorrow/tuesday morning (based on current info)

On balance I think there is a higher risk of thundery weather further west than currently progged. I think the severe marker on UKASF might be a little too restricted to a small area.

Edited June 26, 2011 by Harry

[Mesoscale]

I hope UKASF bring that Severe forcast south a little bit as im about 10 miles south of its most southern point.

So uncomfortable tonight.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Definitely happy to have the opportunity to be west of Peterborough tomorrow, with a quick transit along the A47 if need be. Going to have to call it a night soon as up early tomorrow for finalisations & hopefully a scan through the TORRO/ESTOFEX thoughts. Want to hit the road before the rush hour aswell as to find a good vantage spot.

If only everything would push west by 100 miles....it would benefit everyone then. I don't understand why the UK never gets a direct hit anymore. The last proper stormy set up I remember was a fair while ago. Not seen night lightning for a long time.

[Buckster76]

Ah you are all right sorry was on iPhone

Internet down small screen

My excuse ! Lol

[Lt. Dan]

Have to say not entirely sure I agree with UKASF!

Their description of storms across the SE appears to be quite generic and I'm not entirely sure imports for example would be predominately elevated and IC lightning. IMO, with such high dew points cloud bases would be lower than typical plume imports.

All heading in the right direction though

Estofex still quiet - I suspect at the moment they'll sleep on it and post a forecast come morning, when there's a clearer idea re the behaviour of the advance front, encroaching low etc.

I think there is a lot still to be resolved, especially for tomorrow night and the SE. I could understand the severe warning for tomorrow day time though. I'm on the look out for any movement in that cold front etc (as discussed earlier) for the evening.

[AWD]

Using the estofex criteria, this is my view of tomorrow/tuesday morning (based on current info)

On balance I think there is a higher risk of thundery weather further west than currently progged. I think the severe marker on UKASF might be a little too restricted to a small area.

I like that forecast very much!! ( from an IMBY perspective of course ). I hope it comes of like that, there will be a lot of happy Englishmen if it does!

[DeepSnow]

Not sure of this has been posted yet:

http://ukasf.co.uk/?...mode=view&id=22

Oops just seen that it has! Anyway nice to see quite a few, even in wales and the south west are in with a chance! tho the east do look best, so good luck to everyone tomorrow!!

Edited June 26, 2011 by DeepSnow

[Harry]

I like that forecast very much!! ( from an IMBY perspective of course ). I hope it comes of like that, there will be a lot of happy Englishmen if it does!

Indeed - word of warning I'm in no way experienced enough for anyone to take my 'forecasts' seriously...I just think there's quite a few assumptions being made re the weakening of the CF prior to re-organising and strengthening. Given the moisture, heat etc I don't think it would take much of a feature to destabilise the atmosphere.

There also still needs a lot of finalising done between the models re storm frequency, MCS/No MCS, positioning of the frontal system, initiation over La France etc.

I would hope there'll be more wide reaching thundery breakdown than is currently being progged atm. I also think UKASF forecast is reliant too much on 12z GFS given the zone given to the Severe marker...I am waiting impatiently for the 18z...and, not wishing to jinx anything, expecting the zone of high CAPE/LI to extend a bit further west.

[Cheshire Freeze]

To be honest I think some form of MCS firing in the evening is a certainty and is likely to affect southeastern areas. I think the main doubt for everyone west of Birmingham is what can be fired off along or just infront of the cold front tomorrow day. It's boom or bust, it'll either be something noteworthy or just a couple of scattered sharp showers which leave most places dry. The trouble is that the advancing CF ushers away the best of the potential atmospheric energy through the course of the day from western areas which could leave some people disappointed.

[Stuart]

Areas Affected:

Most of England and Wales (only focusing on UK areas)

Discussion:

Very tricky situation for Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning...

Overall set-up...Large upper trough located to the west of the British Isles over the Atlantic will dig in through the day, spreading areas of PVA across much of the country. Very warm to hot and humid surface air will be in place, particularly across southern/eastern Britain where temperatures could near or exceed 30C in places and dew-points could exceed 20C will provide some of the ingredients necessary for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in the Severe & Thunderstorm warned area. A breakdown of the areas can be found below:

Severe area: (a portion of E England)...Some of the warmest surface temperatures will be located in this area upper 20s to near 30C possible. Along with dew-points in the low 20s this could produce CAPE values in the region of 2000j/kg. Deep layer shear values will be near 35-40kts in this region, enough to separate updraft/downdraft regions and potentially produce a few mesocylones/supercell thunderstorm IF afternoon, surface based convection can develop. Cap strength will likely be fairly strong as upper ridge is slow to clear the east of England. This will produce a dry/warm layer separating the hot humid surface air from the cooling upper level air above it. At the moment, both NAE and GFS are reluctant to break the cap and produce this surface based convection, so chances of it occurring are in the 20% realm, however if they do develop they would do so quickly and produce severe weather with the potential of large hail (up to 2.5cm), strong gusty winds, particularly given the drier mid-layers, frequent CGs and potentially a few isolated tornadoes. - Low level shear is in the range of 15-20kts and SSE to SSW surface convergence is possible in this region, indicated by the 12z NAE.

Thunderstorm Area: (S and E England) This area will be monitored for mid-level instability thunderstorms which are likely to develop across France during the afternoon and move northward across the area during the evening and overnight. Lightning (mostly in cloud), gusty winds and some hail could be associated with these elevated storm even into Tuesday morning in East Anglia and Eastern England.

http://www.ukasf.co....mode=view&id=22

Edited June 26, 2011 by Stuart

[camiscool]

When's the 18z going to come out because I'm going to sleep soon!?

[Stuart]

sould be start comeing out now

[thundercrazy]

Indeed - word of warning I'm in no way experienced enough for anyone to take my 'forecasts' seriously...I just think there's quite a few assumptions being made re the weakening of the CF prior to re-organising and strengthening. Given the moisture, heat etc I don't think it would take much of a feature to destabilise the atmosphere.

There also still needs a lot of finalising done between the models re storm frequency, MCS/No MCS, positioning of the frontal system, initiation over La France etc.

I would hope there'll be more wide reaching thundery breakdown than is currently being progged atm. I also think UKASF forecast is reliant too much on 12z GFS given the zone given to the Severe marker...I am waiting impatiently for the 18z...and, not wishing to jinx anything, expecting the zone of high CAPE/LI to extend a bit further west.

Totally agree with this Harry, looking at the area over portugal and spain at the moment, current timing of the approaching cold front, steering winds and forecast day time tempreatures etc.

I would expect thunderstorms to form over a wide area stretching maybe as far west as devon?

Will again be a radar watching exercise.

[sunny scunny]

When's the 18z going to come out because I'm going to sleep soon!?

It starts to come out at 22:30 so not long

[Weather Wizard]

When's the 18z going to come out because I'm going to sleep soon!?

Starts coming out at 11 during the summer

[Harry]

Starts coming out at 11 during the summer

It's started! Look at those CAPE/LI figures it calculated at 18z today across much of England and Wales...3000J/Kg CAPE with LIs of -7! Amazing that so little can generate even with such figures!

If it under calculated today, what will it read for tomorrow???

At 6am tomorrow, 1200 CAPE and LI's of -3 across N France :blink:

By 9am, 3000 CAPE and LI's of -8 over N France, 1500 CAPE and LI's of -5 over C/S UK.

By 12am, well over 3000 CAPE and LI's of -11 over N France, 3000 CAPE and LI's -8 over C/S/E England

By 3pm, well probably in the order of 4000 CAPE and LI's -13 over N France, 3000 CAPE and LI's -9 C/E England

By 6pm, probably about the same persisting!!!

OOOOMMMMFFFFGGGG!!! Not a great deal of western shift showing on this run, but OMG to what could be released if the triggers present themselves!!! Storm Risk looking better across N France too on the 18z

Edited June 26, 2011 by Harry

[snow raven]

I was watching the ITV local weather (for the SE) earlier today, and apparently, the last time temperatures hit 32c in the SE was 5 years ago.

That in its self was quite a suprise (but then, I do travel daily by southeastern trains which regularly reaches that temperature in December) - but that got me thinking... it must be a good 5 years since I experienced a decent thunder storm, so here's hoping!

[knocker]

The METO Invent model precipitation sequence for Monday.

[Stuart]

so near but so far for my storms

[thundercrazy]

Blimey those charts being churned out for tomorrow look like a sweet shop!

Surely this must result in a massive BANG!!

[Guest]

The METO Invent model precipitation sequence for Monday.

Interesting!

Note the intense cells over SE England at 0100 Tuesday...imports!

[Wales123098]

Interesting!

Note the intense cells over SE England at 0100 Tuesday...imports!

Even storms for my area:D