El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[P-M]

http://estofex.org/

This is NOT good news!!!!!!

:cray:

NOT EVEN A 50% HATCH!!!!!

SORRY!!!! Jumped the gun - that's for Tuesday (interestingly...decided not to do Monday's yet!!!??? )

Dont take any notice Harry just nowcast. Estofex have had most of the North / Central UK on a level 1 today and all we have seen or heard rather are a few measly rumbles and a few flickers of lightning (although the cloud bursts looked great) lol Just see what happens on the day Either way the south looks like getting some action!

Edited June 26, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[VillagePlank]

Estofex is out for tomorrow...

They clearly see it further East - for Tuesday - and the northern end of that is clearly related to the passage of the front.

Monday has the curious feature of CIN around; if that is broken, and the model evidence suggests it shall be, it kind of acts like a pressure cooker with it's lid taken off when it's at it's most energetic.

Forecasting with CIN is a bloody nightmare.

Edited June 26, 2011 by Sparticle

[DanN]

ESTOFEX is for Tuesday. They've completely skipped over Monday..for now.

At least somebody is paying attention!

[Harry]

ESTOFEX is for Tuesday. They've completely skipped over Monday..for now.

Could this be because there's as much head scratching at the Estofex desk as there is at the MetO, BBC and indeed on here.

[snow raven]

SORRY!!!! Jumped the gun - that's for Tuesday (interestingly...decided not to do Monday's yet!!!??? )

Yeah, I just spotted that - my heart litterally sank until I noticed they haven't included tomorrow. I do feel a bit anxious though that the storms expected to come up from France during tomorrow evening/night will stay across the Channel. I really do need to open the prozac - I'll dish them round later this evening for anyone needing one!:lol:

Edited June 26, 2011 by snow raven

[Guest]

Sorry but those who didn't notice that forecast was for Tuesday :rofl::rofl: Thanks God I wasn't the first to read that forecast, as I might have done the same thing!

Interesting that theyn have held back for the time being though B)

[DanN]

They clearly see it further East - for Tuesday

Monday has the curious feature of CIN around; if that is broken, and the model evidence suggests it shall be, it kind of acts like a pressure cooker with it's lid taken off when it's at it's most energetic.

Forecasting with CIN is a bloody nightmare.

I was kind of ruling anything out with the strength of the cap. I couldn't see where that would break, where was you looking to suggest it would?

[weatherobsuk]

Mind you, despite that if we can initiate that 2600kj CAPE tomorrow then I'd expect the level 2 to be over the UK aswell, going by the synopsis & parallel warnings given out by the Met Office yesterday afternoon.

A level 2 was issued for NE-France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands mainly for large to very large hail (>5 cm in diameter) and severe to damaging wind gusts.

[Costa Del Fal]

http://estofex.org/

This is NOT good news!!!!!!

NOT EVEN A 50% HATCH!!!!!

SORRY!!!! Jumped the gun - that's for Tuesday (interestingly...decided not to do Monday's yet!!!??? )

They are probably too amazed that the Uk may actually warrant a level 2. :lol:

[Weather Wizard]

This from the estofex website http://www.estofex.org/html/information.html before you all get to aggitated about tuesday

"How reliable are ESTOFEX forecasts? We have been running a verification of the lightning forecasts since 2006, see the Verification section for detailed information. Also, first verification efforts of the severe-weather forecasts have been realized in collaboration with the University of Oklahoma (see the literature page). While there is a lack of severe weather reports reaching us, a verification of the threat level areas has been started. Some results are presented in the new description of the threat levels. The probability of severe weather events indeed increases according to the forecast threat level. The probability of detection, based on reported events, inside at least a level 1 is: gusts: 57%, significant gusts: 81%, hail: 60%, significant hail: 84%, tornadoes: 36%, significant tornadoes: 67%. This shows that extremely severe events are less likely to be missed, but note that around 80% of extremely severe events did not fall inside the higher threat levels (2 and 3) which are considered most appropriate. There is room for improvement. More results will be presented at the European Conference on Severe Storms in October 2009. The quality of data is crucial for a more reliable verification. Please help us and other scientists: submit to the ESWD!"

[VillagePlank]

I was kind of ruling anything out with the strength of the cap. I couldn't see where that would break, where was you looking to suggest it would?

Quite a few areas, really. Surface heating almost certainly a degree or two more than progged, and given that, the latent energy given off from the dewpoints is, frankly, phenomenal, for UK standards.

Hopefully, we'll keep clear skies until the cap breaks ...

(and don't forget, models have statistical analysis applied to their results. Does that mean that they tweak a touch towards somthing normal based on likelyhood? I don't know)

Edited June 26, 2011 by Sparticle

[paul m]

They are probably too amazed that the Uk may actually warrant a level 2. :lol:

They just doing it to wind us all up

[gottolovethisweather]

I have been loving this thread and of course, previously part 1, since it's inception several days ago, well done Coast!

But please can we keep the one liners to a minimum as like in the MOD thread, it may well put lurkers off from posting. The more newbies we get on Netweather the more we all benefit.

What I find fascinating is the expectancy of said outbreak and a whole manner of experts are posting, even tonight! If Paul Sherman for one is RAMPING AWAY (which I assume he still is?) then it must be LOOK OUT GUYS N GALS.

Apart from this I have nothing more to add and I actually need sleep real soon but keep the posts coming all you stormchasers!

Sweaty Thundery Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[tomp456]

i saw someone post about E sussex getting stuff tomorrow & not putting W sussex in there. really?

Why have ESTOFEX not issued for tomorrow, yet?

[Stormyking]

I think for my are I am sort of like in between the 2, i think the imports will only just miss be a few miles, but I won't rule out a thundery downpour or 2 tomorrow evening time, and threw the night tomorrow but whether it will have much lightning I dont know.

Fingers remain crossed and hope something pops up

[Roger J Smith]

Re earlier question about MCS potential, yes I think this will develop into a powerful MCS over southeast England. It may not rely on imported cells to get started but will suck in activity from northern France as it develops.

The shaping of the isobars suggests that the front will pivot around Cambridge late afternoon. I can see the point TEITS was making about strong activity in the east Midlands and that's also suggested in the shaping of the intensity forecast zones. The MCS would develop several hours after the strong and possibly severe outbreak further north.

Regions that would require a bit more "good fortune" to see strong activity might be northeast England, the central and west Midlands and south central England. These are probably all in with a chance but the front will need to max out to deliver there.

There will be some powerful storms developing in north central France where today max temps reached 32-35 C. I noticed readings near 40 C around Bordeaux. The thing that is perhaps confusing the models to some extent (but not so much the forecasters) is a very weak pressure gradient but the intensity of the front is pretty clear, today in Ireland the temperature stayed almost 10 degrees lower at Knock and Belmullet than in nearby parts of central Ireland and Ulster. With that kind of contrast lurking despite a weak front, once the frontal zone is sucked into the more powerful dynamics developing over northern France I expect the thing will become explosive. But I rely on the research to indicate timing and that is also excellent for tomorrow with a strong peak at just the right time, 21-22h.

[Biggin]

Yeah, I just spotted that - my heart litterally sank until I noticed they haven't included tomorrow. I do feel a bit anxious though that the storms expected to come up from France during tomorrow evening/night will stay across the Channel. I really do need to open the prozac - I'll dish them round later this evening for anyone needing one!:lol:

Yes pleeeeze

[chionomaniac]

Good to see that Paul et al are out chasing tomorrow. Wishing them the best of luck. I may chase when I get home from work ( 7pm) if it looks promising - Coast will you be out tomorrow evening?

I can't quite work out whether it will be boom or bust here, but I can see that we have the best chance for an import for a long time. The NMM seems to program a supercell over Lincs but any import to miss the SE, with the SB CAPE not looking great on Channel facing coasts.

[DanN]

Quite a few areas, really. Surface heating almost certainly a degree or two more than progged, and given that, the latent energy given off from the dewpoints is, frankly, phenomenal, for UK standards.

Hopefully, we'll keep clear skies until the cap breaks ...

(and don't forget, models have statistical analysis applied to their results. Does that mean that they tweak a touch towards somthing normal based on likelyhood? I don't know)

Would that be relying on a certain surface temp to be reached? Or another trigger? Which is what I had trouble picking out. Thanks for explaining though.

[Harry]

Re earlier question about MCS potential, yes I think this will develop into a powerful MCS over southeast England. It may not rely on imported cells to get started but will suck in activity from northern France as it develops.

The shaping of the isobars suggests that the front will pivot around Cambridge late afternoon. I can see the point TEITS was making about strong activity in the east Midlands and that's also suggested in the shaping of the intensity forecast zones. The MCS would develop several hours after the strong and possibly severe outbreak further north.

Regions that would require a bit more "good fortune" to see strong activity might be northeast England, the central and west Midlands and south central England. These are probably all in with a chance but the front will need to max out to deliver there.

There will be some powerful storms developing in north central France where today max temps reached 32-35 C. I noticed readings near 40 C around Bordeaux. The thing that is perhaps confusing the models to some extent (but not so much the forecasters) is a very weak pressure gradient but the intensity of the front is pretty clear, today in Ireland the temperature stayed almost 10 degrees lower at Knock and Belmullet than in nearby parts of central Ireland and Ulster. With that kind of contrast lurking despite a weak front, once the frontal zone is sucked into the more powerful dynamics developing over northern France I expect the thing will become explosive. But I rely on the research to indicate timing and that is also excellent for tomorrow with a strong peak at just the right time, 21-22h.

Lovely thanks, Roger

My excitement is once again tangible

[A.J]

Re earlier question about MCS potential, yes I think this will develop into a powerful MCS over southeast England. It may not rely on imported cells to get started but will suck in activity from northern France as it develops.

The shaping of the isobars suggests that the front will pivot around Cambridge late afternoon. I can see the point TEITS was making about strong activity in the east Midlands and that's also suggested in the shaping of the intensity forecast zones. The MCS would develop several hours after the strong and possibly severe outbreak further north.

Regions that would require a bit more "good fortune" to see strong activity might be northeast England, the central and west Midlands and south central England. These are probably all in with a chance but the front will need to max out to deliver there.

There will be some powerful storms developing in north central France where today max temps reached 32-35 C. I noticed readings near 40 C around Bordeaux. The thing that is perhaps confusing the models to some extent (but not so much the forecasters) is a very weak pressure gradient but the intensity of the front is pretty clear, today in Ireland the temperature stayed almost 10 degrees lower at Knock and Belmullet than in nearby parts of central Ireland and Ulster. With that kind of contrast lurking despite a weak front, once the frontal zone is sucked into the more powerful dynamics developing over northern France I expect the thing will become explosive. But I rely on the research to indicate timing and that is also excellent for tomorrow with a strong peak at just the right time, 21-22h.

Good post Roger, just thought I'd touch on the highlighted part.....The 12z Met Office fax charts show the CF still out in the Irish sea at 12z tomorrow and even at 00z tuesday is still straddling the Welsh borders, so I would've thought Wales, the midlands & south central england to be in prime position for storm initiation during late morning as the trough ahead of the CF destabilizes...When you mentioned "the front will pivot around Cambridge late afternoon" are you in fact referring to the tough associated with the small surface feature expected to travel SW to NE tomorrow morning?....This would also tally in with the NMM12z

Edited June 26, 2011 by ajpoolshark

[VillagePlank]

Would that be relying on a certain surface temp to be reached? Or another trigger? Which is what I had trouble picking out. Thanks for explaining though.

As Roger explained, the main trigger is the front travelling eastwards across the UK - this changes the lapse rates (how temp changes with height with it being colder aloft and hotter at the surface)

Again, as Roger has observed, the difference between infront and behind the front is some 10C - this is already more than GFS has progged. Almost certainly Estofex are run-watching: the models are not behaving according to observation, and, it seems, it's in favour of good storms.

Also the difference between Theta-E air over height, as you'd expect, is good as the front passes.

This, of course, could collide with massively unstable air sucked in from France (if you push air up air has to come from somewhere and given the profile of Northern England, the best bets are to get the air from France - this might even act in our favour since there's a short sea-trip to go before they get here, so more latent energy, even at dusk)

Of course, this is all hyperbole - only way to tell is actual soundings.

[Dorsetbred]

I feel I am too far west to get excited, due to the timing of the front as it moves through. A bit later in the day and it could have been a little more exciting.

[Staffordshire]

I'll be pleased with whatever I get tommorow! Afterall 2 day back I wasn't forecast to get anything!

[AWD]

<br />I feel I am too far west to get excited, due to the timing of the front as it moves through. A bit later in the day and it could have been a little more exciting.<br />

From the Met Office

Monday:

After a bright start further east, increasing amounts of cloud will bring a risk of thundery showers through the afternoon, particularly across Dorset, Wiltshire and Gloucestershire. Maximum temperature 24 °C.

Updated: 1810 on Sun 26 Jun 2011

So I wouldn't give up just yet! Although admittedly, as time goes by its looking less and less likely! Still makes good radar watching tomorrow!!