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El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Typical British mentality that....moan for weeks on end about there being a lack of hot weather then once it arrives it's too hot and people want 'the air cleared' At least peoples' attitudes are more predictable than the weather :p

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

It might be earlier than that Andy

As far as I can tell a small area of low pressure will form tonight over Biscay and move N to reach us by early AM. I'm expecting things to kick off for us early with a possible threat later on Monday as well from a French MCS - although this may be too far east.

The area concerned can be seen over Portugal at the moment having moved up from the Canaries

Really? Excellent! I've had a very busy weekend so not had much chance to look at all possibilities. Thanks for the update, although workwise I'd prefer

it to be dry until around midday tomorrow with things gradually developing as I work lol!

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted

Typical British mentality that....moan for weeks on end about there being a lack of hot weather then once it arrives it's too hot and people want 'the air cleared' At least peoples' attitudes are more predictable than the weather :p

Heat is very different to humidity and you will probably find that it's the humidity that people are complaining of. It's horrible mate give me scorching temps and low humidity any day ;-)

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

Heat is very different to humidity and you will probably find that it's the humidity that people are complaining of. It's horrible mate give me scorching temps and low humidity any day ;-)

I'm the same.

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted

No downpours here, a few drips before though but the sky has not really been unstable.. it was quite stable to the south so thunderstorm are an impossibility here. Tomorrow is a small chance but still I'm very doubtful.

I did see the cell moving to Crosby way though.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

the next shower now passing through quite light atm

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Shaun L Contributor

Shaun L

Posted
  • Location: Wallasey, Wirral (Formerly Exmouth,Devon)
  • Location: Wallasey, Wirral (Formerly Exmouth,Devon)
Posted

No downpours here, a few drips before though but the sky has not really been unstable.. it was quite stable to the south so thunderstorm are an impossibility here. Tomorrow is a small chance but still I'm very doubtful.

I did see the cell moving to Crosby way though.

It's really unstable here Stephen. Have had sporadic torrential downpours and could hear the thunder out towards Crosby. It all seems to be building as it crosses the Wirral towards Liverpool.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

more showers now some heavy

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Amazing to see such charts for my location at this timeframe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs276.gif

So all eyes to what develops to the W because this is where the storms will come from, not France. Expecting storms to arrive during the evening and I still say the best location for storm chasers is Lincs/Wash/Fens.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)

NMM 12z delays the cooler air once again. :D The Midlands now really looks a prime region tomorrow imo for daytime stuff especially just East of Birmingham but all of the Midlands on the whole superb with little CAP here.

Edited by Blizzards
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Staffordshire Aficionado

Staffordshire

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
Posted

NMM 12z delays the cooler air once again. :D The Midlands now really looks a prime region tomorrow imo for daytime stuff especially just East of Birmingham but all of the Midlands on the whole superb with little CAP here.

Is thunder likely to be mixed in? and what time do you think they'll show there faces?

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

Monday storm potential from my research ...

The event may start out rather slowly and lack much development in west-central to northeast England mid-day, but watch for it to develop explosively for the southeast around 1800-2100h with a peak of activity in the London, Kent, Surrey and Sussex counties 2100-0300 with frequent lightning and hail the main risks as well as some locally torrential rainfalls. I don't expect strong wind gusts to be part of this scenario.

The reason for my optimism for a strong thunderstorm event in the southeast is that J-field rotational elements likely to track north from France have their best alignment at 2200h, in the vicinity of a well-supported frontal zone and at the diurnal peak for this type of thunderstorm cluster.

These dynamics also explain why I am pessimistic about earlier stages of development but keep your fingers crossed, it may seed early and give reasonable results earlier in the day.

The place to be for lightning will likely be southeast London and anywhere within 50-100 kms but the show could continue much of the night in east Kent.

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Static Prevails Apprentice

Static Prevails

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire
Posted

I'm now looking forward to tomorrow. I had my doubts for my location, but it seems that I'm in with a good chance, but so is most of England. It seems that anything (apart from snow, obviously) could (or couldn't) happen!

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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

Glad to see that with the meto update they still give a chance of thundery showers for wales tomorrow :)

"Monday:

After a bright start further east, increasing amounts of cloud will bring a risk of thundery showers through the afternoon."

So does it look like the South West and Wales could see the first of the storms and they then move to the Midlands and Eastern England where they intensify?

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DanN Enthusiast

DanN

Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
Posted

Amazing to see such charts for my location at this timeframe.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs276.gif

So all eyes to what develops to the W because this is where the storms will come from, not France. Expecting storms to arrive during the evening and I still say the best location for storm chasers is Lincs/Wash/Fens.

Latest NMM shows the most uplift and any precip breaking out there as well. Think I'll be heading around that area for my chase! South seems to be quite capped, would you agree?

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Hathers Contributor

Hathers

Posted
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire, Orlando
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire, Orlando
Posted

Is thunder likely to be mixed in? and what time do you think they'll show there faces?

I would say mid afternoon. Lasting through to the evening. I wouldn't be surprised if the MO don't have us under there warnings soon. Any idea if nocturnal cooling could play a part tomorrow as well?

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Latest NMM shows the most uplift and any precip breaking out there as well. Think I'll be heading around that area for my chase! South seems to be quite capped, would you agree?

Could you post some of the NMM charts as I would be most grateful.

I agree with Blizzards the charts look excellent for the Midlands. Infact I reckon the Midlands are better placed than the far S/SE.

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StormChaser Apprentice

StormChaser

Posted
  • Location: Didcot - Oxfordshire,UK
  • Location: Didcot - Oxfordshire,UK
Posted

I give up I now prenounce my new nickname "No Storms R uS!" :-( I havent seen a decent storm or worth mentioning about in years !

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Alex95 Contributor

Alex95

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted

The North Midlands and Northern England look well placed for some thunderstorms tomorrow - hopefully I'm not too far north here, but I wouldn't be surprised if North Yorkshire saw some pretty intense storms tomorrow. The other storm risk is in Kent where severe storms could move up from France, but in between these areas there isn't really a trigger to set some storms off. Tomorrow will be a 'loaded gun' scenario; there will be plenty of energy available, so if a trigger is present (eg the cold front) some strong storms should build fairly rapidly. Its 6 years since Newcastle had what I would call a 'strong storm', so hopefully that'll change tomorrow.

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MikeUpjohn Aficionado

MikeUpjohn

Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Lightning, Tornado, Hurricane, Heatwave
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
Posted

Having just seen BBC Weather forecast, I am officially calling an end to my storm chase. Don't see anything heading towards my area, will be concentrated further South. Good luck to all chasing tomorrow, and take care!

Mike.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Having just seen BBC Weather forecast, I am officially calling an end to my storm chase. Don't see anything heading towards my area, will be concentrated further South. Good luck to all chasing tomorrow, and take care!

Mike.

BBC forecast had showers breaking out in south west England, moving N/NE/E, turning thundery has they move into the south and east Midlands, and becoming intense and growing in Eastern England and East Anglia!

Roughly how, IMO, things will turn out!!

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

The North Midlands and Northern England look well placed for some thunderstorms tomorrow - hopefully I'm not too far north here, but I wouldn't be surprised if North Yorkshire saw some pretty intense storms tomorrow. The other storm risk is in Kent where severe storms could move up from France, but in between these areas there isn't really a trigger to set some storms off. Tomorrow will be a 'loaded gun' scenario; there will be plenty of energy available, so if a trigger is present (eg the cold front) some strong storms should build fairly rapidly. Its 6 years since Newcastle had what I would call a 'strong storm', so hopefully that'll change tomorrow.

If the met office with the Fax chart is right there is a very good sized trough moving NNE over SW England, Wales, The Midlands etc tomorrow. GFS and NMM showing convergence zones in many areas too. If these 2 cant set something off I dont know what will! :lol:

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