El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[Guest]

It's started! Look at those CAPE/LI figures it calculated at 18z today across much of England and Wales...3000J/Kg CAPE with LIs of -7! Amazing that so little can generate even with such figures!

If it under calculated today, what will it read for tomorrow???

At 6am tomorrow, 1200 CAPE and LI's of -3 across N France :blink:

By 9am, 3000 CAPE and LI's of -8 over N France, 1500 CAPE and LI's of -5 over C/S UK.

By 12am, well over 3000 CAPE and LI's of -11 over N France, 3000 CAPE and LI's -8 over C/S/E England

By 3pm, well probably in the order of 4000 CAPE and LI's -13 over N France, 3000 CAPE and LI's -9 C/E England

By 6pm, probably about the same persisting!!!

OOOOMMMMFFFFGGGG!!! Not a great deal of western shift showing on this run, but OMG to what could be released if the triggers present themselves!!! Storm Risk looking better across N France too on the 18z

LOL!

Just had a butchers myself and it looks stunning! I was also very surprised to see the high values over similar aras this evening. Just goes to show that a strong cap and rdiging can provide an effective lid on convection!

Still, as we know, far better potential tomorrow

[P-M]

I expext Estofex to release their warning now

[Paul Sherman]

Lol @ Weathership

Liking that it has a nice Storm on my target area at 4pm and also the MCS Moving up through around 1am

Going to be a very long day and Night for us Chasers!

Good to see Good ol SE Essex staying bone dry - Mwahahaha Good job i watered the garden today then

[Norfolk Sheep]

Definitely happy to have the opportunity to be west of Peterborough tomorrow, with a quick transit along the A47 if need be. Going to have to call it a night soon as up early tomorrow for finalisations & hopefully a scan through the TORRO/ESTOFEX thoughts. Want to hit the road before the rush hour aswell as to find a good vantage spot.

Quick transit along the A47? IN which parallel universe?

Think I might stay this side of Cambridge.....or maybe not....

[Harry]

LOL!

Just had a butchers myself and it looks stunning! I was also very surprised to see the high values over similar aras this evening. Just goes to show that a strong cap and rdiging can provide an effective lid on convection!

Still, as we know, far better potential tomorrow

Up to 00z Tuesday, GFS at the moment keen to keep potential imports over France...would mean a SPECTACULAR light show across the channel, superb photographic opportunities! But GFS certainly not looking keen to offer anything more than a Kent clipper at this stage

Edited June 26, 2011 by Harry

[TEITS]

UKASF have their thoughts out:-

http://ukasf.co.uk/?name=Storm&mode=view&id=22

Quite happy that my target was in the severe marked area now!

Pretty much confirms what I was saying about storm chasing tomorrow around the Lincs/Wash/Fens area.

As you can imagine im delighted with that forecast!

[Guest]

Pretty much confirms what I was saying about storm chasing tomorrow around the Lincs/Wash/Fens area.

As you can imagine im delighted with that forecast!

I'll be at Wicken Fen tomorrow by 1pm, doing a bit of wildlife watching before the storms get going. Should be a fun day/night!

[Paul Sherman]

Lol Harry

GFS = GooFuS

Although it and the NMM Nailed todays risk over the ECWMF & UKMET

[Norfolk Sheep]

Hmm, netweather storm forecast has a jolly 0% for Norwich Monday - Tuesday Bit of a change from the 87% yesterday har har! Almost certainly will have to go looking further afield for some action...but how far???

I'll be at Wicken Fen tomorrow by 1pm, doing a bit of wildlife watching before the storms get going. Should be a fun day/night!

'Ere, oo are you calling wildlife??

Hopefully we'll..er.. bump into one another, metaphorically speaking

[Lt. Dan]

Pretty much confirms what I was saying about storm chasing tomorrow around the Lincs/Wash/Fens area.

As you can imagine im delighted with that forecast!

Good job! Lets see if the atmosphere decides to play along. Still waiting to see the higher res output later and tomorrow morning before I set off...

[Guest]

Hmm, netweather storm forecast has a jolly 0% for Norwich Monday - Tuesday Bit of a change from the 87% yesterday har har! Almost certainly will have to go looking further afield for some action...but how far???

'Ere, oo are you calling wildlife??

Hopefully we'll..er.. bump into one another, metaphorically speaking

There will be three of us, scruffy, uncool, unshaven, with binoculars and sunburn. You can't miss us!

[A.J]

My take using the model runs....................The Met office Invent precip charts tie in with the 12z NMM & 12z Fax charts, they delay the CF and form a surface low and associated trough through the SW approaches in the next few hours, this is already developing down in Biscay (infra red imagery on the sat24 site)..This features extends NE wards whilst sliding east during the daylight hours, WAA & colder air aloft steepen lapse rates sharply, so with all the surface and mid level energy available, severe storms quite possible IMO in a line Birmingham eastwards extending down to the Salisbury Plains. Prior storms will probably initiate in the early hours over SW England/Wales and up into the midlands as the WAA northwards and destabilizes in the mid-levels giving elevated storms from the Ac Cas which will flood NE northwards with the WAA...To add to that, if mid level cloud breaks, aided by the strong solar heating, high surface CAPE, bouyancy, with the 18z GFS progged low level convergence zones over the west midlands, surface based storms may well develope further west of Birmingham during the late morning....I'm not sure about trying to forecast the anticipated MCS over the home counties/SE as I'm not sure of the dynamics required so happily concede that to the experts

*disclaimer, this is just a 'wild stab' don't take as gospel, just my current thoughts

[Mesoscale]

just saw the BBC forecast there not too keen about the idea of thunderstorms all though they said 'could potentially be some heavy thundery downpours'? haha. nobody is sure about what tommorow will bring.

[knocker]

Just the surface chart for 1800z. Running a double cold front again. Some nifty temps in France.

Edited June 26, 2011 by weather ship

[Wales123098]

My take using the model runs....................The Met office Invent precip charts tie in with the 12z NMM & 12z Fax charts, they delay the CF and form a surface low and associated trough through the SW approaches in the next few hours, this is already developing down in Biscay (infra red imagery on the sat24 site)..This features extends NE wards whilst sliding east during the daylight hours, WAA & colder air aloft steepen lapse rates sharply, so with all the surface and mid level energy available, severe storms quite possible IMO in a line Birmingham eastwards extending down to the Salisbury Plains. Prior storms will probably initiate in the early hours over SW England/Wales and up into the midlands as the WAA northwards and destabilizes in the mid-levels giving elevated storms from the Ac Cas which will flood NE northwards with the WAA...To add to that, if mid level cloud breaks, aided by the strong solar heating, high surface CAPE, bouyancy, with the 18z GFS progged low level convergence zones over the west midlands, surface based storms may well develope further west of Birmingham during the late morning....I'm not sure about trying to forecast the anticipated MCS over the home counties/SE as I'm not sure of the dynamics required so happily concede that to the experts

*disclaimer, this is just a 'wild stab' don't take as gospel, just my current thoughts

In English does that mean storms in the SW England and SE Wales in the early hours 4am ish then moving eastwards? Lol sorry Im just a tad excited on the hope that I might actually see something......

Edited June 26, 2011 by Wales123098

[snow raven]

Up to 00z Tuesday, GFS at the moment keen to keep potential imports over France...would mean a SPECTACULAR light show across the channel, superb photographic opportunities! But GFS certainly not looking keen to offer anything more than a Kent clipper at this stage

That's made be feel a bit

[camiscool]

What does the 18z show?!

[Dean E]

Don't often see temperatures like this at 10pm, maybe a few times every summer!

I hope everyone gets there fair share of storms, I personally think that we will all get caught out by surprise

[sbiggs]

Is there a danger that NOTHING could happen?

I seem to be is much of a favourable position for where things could happen. (10 miles north of cambridge)

Every run I've seen for the past 36 hours says 2500 Cape, 86% Storm Risk, but NO rainfall?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Up to 00z Tuesday, GFS at the moment keen to keep potential imports over France...would mean a SPECTACULAR light show across the channel, superb photographic opportunities! But GFS certainly not looking keen to offer anything more than a Kent clipper at this stage

I have to agree, not looking good IMO for anything outside of the southeastern corner. I think those towards the SE will be happy though.

[A.J]

In English does that mean storms in the SW England and SE Wales in the early hours 4am ish then moving eastwards? Lol sorry Im just a tad excited on the hope that I might actually see something......

plus probable à partir du milieu de matinée....bugger, thats French....lol .....erm more likely from mid morning onwards...

(BTW, I'm not smart, I don't know french, just used google translate to pretend that I am!...:lol:)

[Chris K]

In English does that mean storms in the SW England and SE Wales in the early hours 4am ish then moving eastwards? Lol sorry Im just a tad excited on the hope that I might actually see something......

I think we have the potential to see some showery storms early in the day, MetO seems to think lunchtime-early afternoon, but it seemns to be more hit and miss. These will merge and organise into larger storms, as well as possibly intensify as it heads towards the East. Again, it will be all down to watching the radars soon I think. Im in linconshire on Wednesday..wish I was there 2 days earlier now

[Kris T]

Simply stunning charts laid out before us tonight - surely tomorrow we are going to get some! :bomb: I can't take much more of this anticipation, it's making me go bonkers!

My camera and camcorder are fully charged, it's just a case of getting work over as quick as possible!

Good luck to all for the next couple of days, and for those chasing, I may well bump into you at some point tomorrow evening along the South Coast

[Wales123098]

plus probable à partir du milieu de matinée....bugger, thats French....lol .....erm more likely from mid morning onwards...

(BTW, I'm not smart, I don't know french, just used google translate to pretend that I am!...:lol:)

Lol I hated French in school, could not do it to safe my life. Good old English is fine... I've got a GCSE in Welsh with a good grade lol but I've forgotten all that since:P

Edited June 26, 2011 by Wales123098

[viking_smb]

Lol I hated French in school, could not do it to safe my life. Good old English is fine... I've got a GCSE in Welsh with a good grade lol but I've forgotten all that since:P

these storms iniating in the early hours, what day, is it monday morning or tues morning?

cheers