El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[Biggin]

30.8c at Kenley weather station.

[Harry]

No it's not....being a signalman, and being on duty now, it's a huge problem....ever seen a track buckling???? search it on you tube! If you want to be on a train when that happens underneath it, be my guest, hence the reduced speeds etc! Track can only expand so much before it give's way!

CG

It's a nonsense because we have had track installed which cannot cope with heat in excess of 32C (weather, naturally the track will be considerably hotter)

I understand the bulging and risk to life etc, what I don't understand is the pillock who decided to construct railways in such a manner that 30C+ heat shuts down them down

Edited June 27, 2011 by Harry

[Richie V]

Don't doubt it's strength. It's shredded huge storms in the past with the greatest of ease. I suspect the real cause is the row of hills to the south of us. Storms then split going down the valley to the west and reform over the city or are forced to the East and then reform of the city. One of the reasons why Western Park got 60 mm more than us during the soggy June 2007.

Yikes... You really need to move house my freind.

I nearly lost my red van on the Wicker that faithful afternoon!

[Hughsey]

It's a nonsense because we have had track installed which cannot cope with heat in excess of 32C (weather, naturally the track will be considerably hotter)

I understand the bulging and risk to life etc, what I don't understand is the pillock who decided to construct railways in such a manner that 30C+ heat shuts down them down

perhaps because it was cheaper to build and because we only rarely experience days like this and so in the long run it isnt really a problem?

[VillagePlank]

Model to observered characteristics (00z obs to 06z GFS):

GFS: T=22.8, Td=19

Obs: T=29.4, Td=17.9

Broadly, GFS seems to be doing OK, although the earlier difference in Td of about 0.4, has extended out to 1.1. GFS definitely overdoes moisture!

Temperatures are way higher than expected, though.

[Habsish]

Might be worth keeping and eye on the the possible build up using this site My link

H

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys

On the M40 Heading towards target atm.

Models are next to useless for today, it is a real free for all with radar watching etc. PJB Has updated his synoptic discussion over on Ukww and we are still happy with the target (See Zone 2) from his post of something happening SE Midlands later today, will almost certainly be heading back towards Cambs, Norfolk, Herts etc later for expected developments tonight from 19z towards 03z

Again good luck as this is Harder than chasing in the States IMHO!

Paul S

[donna-m]

Morning all

Lovely blue skys here with a temp of 27c and humidity of 63 with slight southerly breeze

Now peeps ,, i can near on guarantee these thunderstorms will be over my house during the night and tom morn even though gfs says NO so do any of you storm lovers want to swap house ??

because i really really dont want any storms and am very happy staying in the no storms club

Fingers crossed that my little sea breeze keeps it away from sunny Clacton

[VillagePlank]

Model to observered characteristics (00z obs to 06z GFS):

GFS: T=22.8, Td=19

Obs: T=29.4, Td=17.9

Broadly, GFS seems to be doing OK, although the earlier difference in Td of about 0.4, has extended out to 1.1. GFS definitely overdoes moisture!

Temperatures are way higher than expected, though.

[pinball wizard]

Guys

See here - if you work in London and are hoping to get home to EA via trains, you may want to take action very soon!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-13926651

Have you ever read such boll**ks in your life!!!!!!!

I'm not surprised by that, its already 30.6c here according to official data so i'd not be shocked to see the 32c mark hit before 3pm.

[LadyEv06]

Blimey its warm out there today! Almost felt as if we were abroad on the school walk this morning!

Looking good for my area - Netweather have 86% chance of a storm after 1pm and 85% after 4pm.

Really hoping we have a good storm - although no rain please between 3-4pm for the school run lol.

[TheToastPeople]

Holy crap im in a good spot for once, Me and a few mates are going to the highest spot in bedford soon (with beer) just so we can watch teh storms! 43% humid and 31c its gunna be a good day

[VillagePlank]

Model to observered characteristics (00z obs to 06z GFS):

GFS: T=22.8, Td=19

Obs: T=29.4, Td=17.9

Broadly, GFS seems to be doing OK, although the earlier difference in Td of about 0.4, has extended out to 1.1. GFS definitely overdoes moisture!

Temperatures are way higher than expected, though.

Edited June 27, 2011 by Sparticle

[Thundery Shower]

looks like this hih outflow cirrus has zapped up all the energy, storms are decreasing

[Biggin]

Just starting to haze over to the SW. Dont know if thats a good sign or not for later.

[Dave Clarke]

The ECMWF model has the best handle on the setup atm, it was the only model that picked up the buckling of the upper trough, GFS didn't suggest activity in the SW as is the case this morning. NAE and HIRLAM a close 2nd though.

[Harry]

Model to observered characteristics (00z obs to 06z GFS):

GFS: T=22.8, Td=19

Obs: T=29.4, Td=17.9

Broadly, GFS seems to be doing OK, although the earlier difference in Td of about 0.4, has extended out to 1.1. GFS definitely overdoes moisture!

Temperatures are way higher than expected, though.

Why has this posted popped up several times?

Either way for us in the SE corner, eyes down on W France atm as that MCS is about to charge into an explosive environment!

I HOPE that it decides to organise and intensify, rather than scupper what would have been potential developments later! If that MCS taps into the energy available and organises....lovely jubbly!

[Dave Clarke]

looks like this hih outflow cirrus has zapped up all the energy, storms are decreasing

The Diurnal minima is being reached relative to the convective cycle and is killing off the current activity in the SW

[Alex95]

26°C in my back garden now, strangely Albemarle has dropped to 19°C? Feels really humid with some of that AltCas floating around.

[Thundery Shower]

also to note the area of percipitation is now on a more NE route, hopefull as it hits the warmer airmass it will build into storms, but unfortunately as we have this high level cr@p i think i will limit convection.

[VillagePlank]

Why has this posted popped up several times?

My internet connection dropped - removed duplicates, now. SOrry about that peeps.

The Diurnal minima is being reached relative to the convective cycle and is killing off the current activity in the SW

Pardon me for being the village plank, but what does that mean?

[Somerset Squall]

Just plain old rain here and 20C. Couldn't even last more than a day :lol:

[magicpatch]

Just hit 30c here in the garden, but the skies are hazing over

[Thundery Shower]

My internet connection dropped - removed duplicates, now. SOrry about that peeps.

Pardon me for being the village plank, but what does that mean?

i was going to ask the same question, i guess i means maximum tempurature ?

[jimbo36]

cirrus cap all over here at mo, not good for later, anyone got an industrial hair dryer, so i can get rid of?