El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[Matt B]

As the great Public Enemy once said........

'Dont beleive the hype'

[Dave Clarke]

Another cross post from Paul Knightley to keep you guys up to date with what's happening at our gaff

Posted 27/6/2011 12:29

Subject: Re: Convective Outlook - Monday 27 June 2011

Online

Location: Reading

Yes, main area of interest does appear to be across E Anglia/SE England, and perhaps Cent S England overnight, especially later tonight, and for a time tomorrow morning. As Paul mentions, the current area of mid-level activity over the SW should spread NNE through today - as this is indicative of an area of ascent, it's not out of the question that further activity forms from the boundary layer within this mass further NE, with isolated activity building back into more southern areas - any such activity will be subject to reasonable shear and so may be fairly organised.

Overnight, it looks like the activity will be rooted above a cooling boundary layer (surface flow veers to a northerly component) - 850 flow and above remains with a southerly component, and so isentropic lift of the warm/moist layer around 850 mb should help lift parcels to their level of free convection. Cloud layer shear on the order of 20-25 knots should allow for some organised storms to form - indeed, slight veering of the flow could help aid in mid-level mesocyclone development, so there is the chance of some large hail with overnight activity.

[Stormyking]

All the cloud is clearing here, allowing more sun to come threw infact there is a lot of blue sky and bits of AcCas about, temperatures are rising again so maybe a good sign for later?

[Darren Bown]

hi Harry

I suspect it will inhibit TL but not the rain!

Two other things to watch, the first is the last picc from Net Wx radar and the second a rough idea of wind flow as it was at 0900. Remember I suggested that storms might well be triggered/helped by convergeging wind patterns at the surface?

radar

and the wind flow

and finally do read the alert issued re storms by Nick F the Net Wx senior forecaster-he knows what he is doing believe me and will either update this IF he feels it requires it) or maybe if he gets time at work drop a post in during the afternoon.

Interesting on the wind image, showing a convergence at the Cheshire gap and Pennines.

Sky has cleared here, got some cumulus bubbling up.

[Thundery Shower]

Finally the high level cloud is beginning to clear, i can start seeing instability again.

[PurpleButterfly]

Well we have 100% cloud cover, but i can see the sun trying to brake it

Since the cloud cover the temps have gone up a little.

Current conditions:

Temperature:29 °CComfort Level:29 °CDew point:17 °CBarometer:1013 millibarsHumidity:48%

[Hodgheg]

If all this hayfever and sweatyness is for nothing i wont be happy. Bits of cirrus now spreading from the south

[Joneseye]

All the cloud is clearing here, allowing more sun to come threw infact there is a lot of blue sky and bits of AcCas about, temperatures are rising again so maybe a good sign for later?

At last a bit of positive news.

I hope this is a good learning curve for our newer members as despite all the data available and all the predictions these situations are never clear cut, at least not in the UK!

For those peeps with the NetWeather Radar if you zoom out you can see an area of precip coming into view in the Bay of Biscay. This will be associated with the Iberian activity than John Holmes illustrated using the satellite view.

[paul tall]

Some odd weather phenomena out there on the Eastbourne coast this afternoon. Confined to the area from Pevensey Bay to Beachy Head, a terrific thick sea harr was just on the shore and no more than 2 miles out. Must have been the damp air over the Channel and the heat from the lovely sun this afternoon - not seen this for a while (I hope it is an omen for tomorrow!!)

and then the model glider boys were mixing it with the seagulls with some incredible thermals off the Downs. Must be a good sign of rising warm air surely??

Wow the sea haar pics are amazing.

[Coast]

[sunny scunny]

The temp is already 30c at humberside airport, which is incredible :o

[Adi F]

Well that's the car filled up and windscreen Rain X'ed. So ready to hit the road, sadly my 3 dongle is playing up again but its so old its carved out of stone. Anyway I have not been able to sort out my laptop charging problem in the car so it looks as if i will chasing in the old days, using the mark 1 eye ball.

Because I have no com's I think I will see how things develop before hitting the road.

[Kain]

Cirrus now starting to break apart here

[janetmh71]

Complete cloud cover here right now hopefully it will disappear as quick as it appeared

Will only suffer heat if there is something worth suffering for in the end . . I want some storms!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Cirrus also now breaking up here in central London.

The next few hours will be interesting, see if any home grown stuff starts to develop.

[snowwonder]

Very milky sky here in bedford which has made the sun very hazy! Very breezy too. Is this good for later or very bad for potential storms? Im a novice and enjoy reading the forum but have trouble undersatnding all the jargon etc!

Cheers

SW

[Purplepixii]

Cloud cover lifted and I've just been watching the temperature go from 24.4 to 26.2 in less than 30 mins and it's still climbing! :huh:

[matt_in_dudley]

After a beautiful morning here, the cloud has started to roll in...breeze has picked up which feels lovely but still really warm! Hope the South East enjoys their storms later...maybe it is good thing i am at work after 5pm lol.

[Darren Bown]

Really sunny still here, heading off to work now though

[Thundery Shower]

looks quite thundery again, my main area im looking at is the northern tip of france.

[WillinGlossop]

spot on 33c here in Faversham..... so humid n sticky.......

[AWD]

Are those showers in the SW thundery/electrical?

[NorthantsSnow]

Let me guess, Northampton too far north and west to be a part of this evening's fun and games?

[nanu]

can confirm the sun is killing off the high cloud here as well.. it only just came in as well.. lots of blue sky now,so the heat keeps building

[The PIT]

Clouding over now did hit 28.6C now down to a cool 27.9C. Sadly the cloud is cirrus and no sign of tower building. The activity over the south west slowly fizzling out another batch over France heading north east.