El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 2

[Stormyking]

Lots of AcCas about here and Alto cumulus floccus if thats what its called, feeling very warm and humid, fingers crossed for later !

[Marcus_surfer]

A little rain in the last hour, now cloudy with a rapid cool down. The activity seems to have died too.

[Dave Clarke]

My internet connection dropped - removed duplicates, now. SOrry about that peeps.

Pardon me for being the village plank, but what does that mean?

In laymans terms, storms that formed at night die off in the morning as temperatures increase

Completely different beasties

Edited June 27, 2011 by Dave Clarke

[Norfolk Sheep]

And the good news is, the elves at Dereham Camera Centre have sorted my camera in double quick time What an astonishing service that was, well worth the money

Currently 27C with a stiff SE breeze, cirrus sheet visible over to the west.

[johnholmes]

hope this may help some of the newer folk to storm prediction, its reasonably valid in my view for Midlands/and further east up on/east and SE of Peak/Pennines from home grown weather. Nothing to do with what is showing up well on the radar further SW although Brest and Cambourne ascents show this thundery low from NW Iberia quite well.

Edited June 27, 2011 by johnholmes

[paul m]

Netweather has 80% for this morning and 65% for this afternoon. weather radar shows nothing. Should i start getting disappointed or is it a waiting game

[P-M]

hope this may help some of the newer folk to storm prediction, its reasonably valid in my view for Midlands/and further east up on/east and SE of Peak/Pennines from home grown weather. Nothing to do with what is showing up well on the radar further SW although Brest and Cambourne ascents show this thundery low from NW Iberia quite well.

Thanks John.

[Thundery Shower]

i definately feel that this high base cirrus is stopping convection, sky's dont look thundery they just look miserable.

[Mesoscale]

Is this high level cirrus blanket meant to shift?

[Hodgheg]

Hmm im pessamistic as usual about seeing anything, will be following all day though . Fingers crossed

[johnholmes]

this infra red sat picc also shows the extensive convective system tracking up from off NW Iberia.

It is possible that it may cause too much middle/high level cloud to allow really big storms to develop-needs watching through the afternoon with a close eye on the Net Wx radar and intensity of precip information.

[Andy Pepler]

it more sticky than a glasto hippys armpits atm.

its gone very still humid and hot.im showing at the moment

temps at 25.2

dewpoint 17.6

pressure 1013

humidity 71%

sometings comming i take it..

hot

andy

[SnowJoke]

Complete cirrus cover here now for the last 30mins. Winds getting a little gusty, but if this cirrus sheet doesn't shift I'm not expecting and home grown storms to initiate now. Eyes will be down towards France to see what we might import this evening.

[Harry]

MetO Invent completely thrown me (I know it's a trial "Beta" system)...seems to expect a combination of home growns/imports from as early as mid to late afternoon continuing until early hours (say 3z)

GFS and NAE suggest activity to be a fair bit later.

Have to agree - nowcast, radar and satellite watching etc it most certainly is

[Dave Clarke]

UKMO Meso model still brings in heavy convective showers for most of the SE quadrant 18z-00z tonigh, which would suggest MCS formation likely (at this point)

Edited June 27, 2011 by Dave Clarke

[nimbus20]

Radar showing the area of precipitation in the SW now beginning to get its act together as it moves ever more NNE. Another potentially thundery cell has developed on its northern flank heading towards central Wales.

[Harry]

this infra red sat picc also shows the extensive convective system tracking up from off NW Iberia.

It is possible that it may cause too much middle/high level cloud to allow really big storms to develop-needs watching through the afternoon with a close eye on the Net Wx radar and intensity of precip information.

This is really where I wish I'd studied meteorology lol

In your view JH, do you think the MCS is likely to intensify as it passes over W/NW/N France and 'burn' the high energy sitting there waiting, or merely surpress it and we get a spell of thundery rain? ($64000 question I appreciate )

I just know very little about MCS' generally and their behaviour.

[Lauren]

Getting hazy here.

[VillagePlank]

Getting hazy here.

Hangover? Td's have dipped 0.5C under cirrus ....

[Neilsouth]

Hangover? Td's have dipped 0.5C under cirrus ....

I see your haze in the distance but here it's still blue and roasting

[MP-R]

Hmmm. The lovely thundery formation of the clouds has disappeared a bit and the sky just now looks grey. Very heavy rain with sferics to the south but not as many strikes as earlier - losing intensity? Still very warm and humid but temperature on the fall.

[magicpatch]

Lots of cloud now, temp had dropped back to 29.5c too

[Thundery Shower]

Slight dissapointment with this yet again, was hoping for severe storms like the 1990's all i can see with this is thundery rain.

[Darren Bown]

The Beeb seem to reckon nothing much West and north of the midlands from the forecast I've just seen at 12:30pm.... Last night seemed to show storms up to W Yorkshire.

[johnholmes]

This is really where I wish I'd studied meteorology lol

In your view JH, do you think the MCS is likely to intensify as it passes over W/NW/N France and 'burn' the high energy sitting there waiting, or merely surpress it and we get a spell of thundery rain? ($64000 question I appreciate )

I just know very little about MCS' generally and their behaviour.

hi Harry

I suspect it will inhibit TL but not the rain!

Two other things to watch, the first is the last picc from Net Wx radar and the second a rough idea of wind flow as it was at 0900. Remember I suggested that storms might well be triggered/helped by convergeging wind patterns at the surface?

radar

and the wind flow

and finally do read the alert issued re storms by Nick F the Net Wx senior forecaster-he knows what he is doing believe me and will either update this IF he feels it requires it) or maybe if he gets time at work drop a post in during the afternoon.