El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 4

[thundercrazy]

Yea good night from mid Hampshire too! Hope to be woke in 3 or 4 hours with a lot of banging and flashing lol

Shall i inform the police?

[tara303]

been watching this thread today-im staying on sat/radar watch!! at last light the sw/w horizon was filled with altocumulus floccus/cas

just need to give it a boot..now taking alook at things im not to concerned about nothing happening for the south especially..but where. checking the sat with the plume storms heading up and the fronts moving in to west side, interactions would start to fire ahead of the plume(cant miss it)storms down south, i expext to see some action across on the north coast of France heading over the channel, then the big one, maybe goind through Kent but .. think that what could happen is for this to expand! im thinking either sleep or wait up or sleep and get up later or be woken up by lightning! when you are shattered and its late then its frustrating i know, but its not like nothings on the sat!

I saw the clouds too while walking the dogs - trying to decide whether to stay up or be woken, and wishing i had tomorrow off !!! Two of my colleagues on hols so I'd have to be really brave to throw a sickie... but then you can't help when you're ill......mwahahaha...

[paul m]

Tomasz Shaeffernaker (or however you spell it) has just mentioned thundery showers continuing overnight in Kent, Essex and Suffolk - what's wrong with Norfolk then, eh?? EH????

CONTINUING!!!!!! Have they started

[cmimrie]

Yea good night from mid Hampshire too! Hope to be woke in 3 or 4 hours with a lot of banging and flashing lol

Are we still talking about the weather?

[Dave Clarke]

18z UKMO Meso (NAE) breaks out convective precip 00z through to 12z in the SE Quadrant, London, Home counties, maybe as far west as Berks, and everywhere south and east, as well as E Anglia.

[sbiggs]

I think I am asking politely if anyone has any clue about why the storms didn't form the way everyone thought they would?

Does anyone know what happened, what stopped them?

[Norfolk Sheep]

i'm going to have a look in my tea-cup to see if theres a storm in it...

[*Stormforce~beka*]

You filthy minded lot LOL! Although its after the watershed so your ok. I hope something does happen as husband has a 24 hour blood pressure monitoring on. It's going to be a noisey annoying night with that thing going off every hour! Off for real now ~ Sleep well all! x

[loopydreamer]

sorry but i cant be bothered to drive over there now! :lol:

omg that is soooo funny

[Biggin]

Got an ETA of the precip Dave??

Edited June 27, 2011 by Biggin

[Dave Clarke]

Hot from the fingers of Brendan Jones on UKww

Bren J

Sferic appeared just north of Lyme Regis with cloud development there but, as yet no radar echoes.

[tara303]

oh that lump on france's east coast looks tasty - but i fear too north easterly a track looking at blitzortung... poo.

had an amazing storm there while camping about 10 years ago - went on for 4 hours, we sat in the mini drinking cupasoup - watching our tent de-stabilise...........

[pinball wizard]

Yea good night from mid Hampshire too! Hope to be woke in 3 or 4 hours with a lot of banging and flashing lol

LOL what about thunder and lightning haha

[elking]

I think I am asking politely if anyone has any clue about why the storms didn't form the way everyone thought they would?

Does anyone know what happened, what stopped them?

Yes, I'm curious too. If anyone more knowledgeable could explain - I'm lots of us quieter members would appreciate it.

[tara303]

You filthy minded lot LOL! Although its after the watershed so your ok. I hope something does happen as husband has a 24 hour blood pressure monitoring on. It's going to be a noisey annoying night with that thing going off every hour! Off for real now ~ Sleep well all! x

as long as it doesn't go off in your eye you'll be alright!! eriously, i'm thinking of re-setting me alarm hourly so at least I wake if there's action......;-)

[Neilsouth]

Sky is full of altocumulus

[Norfolk Sheep]

CONTINUING!!!!!! Have they started

I'll get back to you on that one....

[Dave Clarke]

It's all about forcing mechanisms, being in place at the right time with precipitable water, temperature, cold air aloft, and no dry cap for the moisture to convect up into. The models had trouble with a trough from the Canary Islands which brought the storms to the SW this morning, and they're having trouble with timing the other ingredients of thunderstorms.

It will rain in the SE tonight fact, whether it reaches the surface much is down to how high up the clouds are, and atm they're forecast likely to be high.

The forecasts are as right as you're all going to get, as *actual* weather doesn't follow models, the models play serious catchup on later runs re-modelling up to the point of current weather.

[Hodgheg]

Oh, i think ill listen to that song by a band i like called eye of the storm and go to bed

Edited June 27, 2011 by john2006

[Nick F]

Nick F, can you explain why there's nothing happening? Especially in the areas that were in the high risk? Not a blame game, just what made things not form the way they should?

These plume breakdowns are always tricky to forecast, there always looked to be elevated thundery showers and storms across western and northern England and Wales today shead of the cold front, further east storms were forecast not to kick off until later this evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. OK, nothing's kicked off this evening partly because the atmospherfe is still well capped, but there's a reasonable likelihood that storms moving fairly quickly NNE across NW France currently may move across SE England tonight - perhaps 1-2am at a rough guess and some storms may develop ahead of the MCS over Wern France from outlflow and as heights continue to fall from the west and cloud tops cool - which will help destabilise the plume.

Too early to write off the risk of storms forecast for SE and E England and say nothing's happened. And unfortunately forecasting storms especially is not an exact science. Even the SPC in the USA have busts with their severe convective forecasts across the Plains on a fairly regular basis - and USA mid-west, being a large landmass with less maritime interaction is probably easier to model the atmosphere over.

[weatherobsuk]

Rejected..going to hit the bed soon enough after a 14hr chase leading only to some cloudscapes and a distant shelf-cloud. managed to get somewhat of a tan at least, sitting under 3000kj of CAPE all day.

[VillagePlank]

Well, I, for one, am utterly disappointed. One way or another every major weather outlet ramped this one. Not quite sure how rain comes from clear starry skies (given that there's only about 5 hours of night left, and the atmosphere isn't particularly mobile) but hey, I'm no expert.

A bad day for NWP prediction.

[Dave Clarke]

Paul Blight got it right this morning, as posted on our front end http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk

[Tom Montalbano]

Link to Meteociel and latest reports from French observers:

http://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/temps-reel.php?region=no

Move your curser over those CB symbols near the French/Belgian border and you will see a nice shot of lightning, lighting up a decent CB from those batch of storms in that area.

Regards,

Tom.

[paul m]

Well, I, for one, am utterly disappointed. One way or another every major weather outlet ramped this one. Not quite sure how rain comes from clear starry skies (given that there's only about 5 hours of night left, and the atmosphere isn't particularly mobile) but hey, I'm no expert.

A bad day for NWP prediction.

I think a lot of us will second that