Model Output Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

Im not gonna lie i thought that lifted indexes like these on friday

And a storm risk like this

would have sparked more model discussion as they suggest the whole country is very likely to see some interesting weather in the short range

The problem is that the convective storm lovers tend to flock off to the convective discussion threads in the storms area, leaving MOD to be overwhelmingly dominated by those who are only interested in persistent high pressure and quiet settled weather (except perhaps for hot thundery southerlies which do create some interest in MOD).

can someone explain why that greenland high has been there for weeks on end yet in winter when we (I mean cold lovers) all crave it we get a transient 2-3 days worth before its blown away ????

its really giving me the hump this summer

Like Mr_Data said, have a look at the last two winters. The Greenland High was unusually persistent during most of the 2009/10 winter and then proceeded to dominate proceedings for most of December 2010, not really relinquishing its grip until mid-January 2011. There are question marks over whether the smaller Arctic sea ice extent is helping to promote higher pressure there all year round.

Whether we like it or not, bright showery thundery weather looks set to persist for most of us until at least Sunday. Current outputs suggest that Friday will start off with some more persistent rain moving up from the SW but that even this will turn showery by the afternoon with sunny intervals in between. The source of divergence on the current model outputs, rather like last weekend, is the speed of arrival of an Atlantic depression around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, which is very sensitive to the speed of the jet stream. GFS, as is often its trademark, is being quite progressive with this, bringing it into the country by Wednesday and bringing cloudier changeable weather, while UKMO seems to be going the same way.

In contrast ECMWF holds the low further out in the Atlantic, and the operational has the low fizzle out allowing high pressure to nose in from the west, while the ensemble mean shows strong agreement on the low holding off until at least Thursday and then considerable divergence thereafter.

My current opinion is that GFS/UKMO are probably being a bit too progressive but that the low probably will make it over eventually- perhaps two or three days of high pressure beforehand.

[Summer Sun]

ECM Looks good for next week, high teens to low 20's, towards the end of next week ECM is on its own as GFS bring low pressure back in whilst ECM keep's thing settled.

[bluearmy]

The lower heights running across central france early last week and then ne with the possibility of clipping the se of the uk is something we saw modelled early last month. my recollection is that it turned into something notable regarding unsettled conditions in the se of the uk. more hopeful that it wont do the same this time although looks like it will get close enough to clip the se corner.

this apart, a decent few days across most of the uk before the next trough trundles its way towards us. as ian posts above, the timing looks uncertain. i was hoping that this trough would make landfall further north than the current one. naefs even shows energy initially headed towards western france as the atlantic comes up against the ridge which might throw up a temp plume.

anyway, all in all a changeable outlook continues.

[Downpour]

[London post]

GFS sees the showers currently giving London and the SE much-needed rain clearing off in time for the weekend. Any meaningful rain should be gone by mid-afternoon, with Friday mid-evening and night now looking dry and reasonably temperate for those entertaining on the first night of the weekend. Following that , Saturday looking better, with an outside chance of a shower breaching the Chiltern barrier, and Sunday sunny and warm, particularly during longer sunny periods. So a nice weekend in prospect.

A word on rain totals here: Nothing like what was progged as recently as a week ago, with totals yet again been downgraded as we approach T0. This is a feature of all the models, I'd say and is always worth factoring in when trying to forecast the semi-arid climate of the M25 region.

[Milhouse]

The GFS 6z is looking reasonably good for much of next week, up until Friday when we see more unsettled conditions spreading down from the NW. The first half of the week sees light winds everywhere so it will feel very warm even if temperatures just manage to reach average values. Night time temperatures will be below average i suspect before they rise towards the end of the week. So a decent settled spell to come from Sunday onwards and were certainly not witnessing a train of low pressure systems like during previous summers.

[UV-RAY]

Another run and much the same, some rain/showers in between a couple of days dry/warm weather. That nice big Greenland high looks like it will remain with us throughout the summer, each time FI shows it too weaken on one run, the very next day shows it strengthening it's vice like grip. So too sum up, the SE continues to fry, whilst the rest of us unimportant ones see an average summer.

[Alex]

Another run and much the same, some rain/showers in between a couple of days dry/warm weather. That nice big Greenland high looks like it will remain with us throughout the summer, each time FI shows it too weaken on one run, the very next day shows it strengthening it's vice like grip. So too sum up, the SE continues to fry, whilst the rest of us unimportant ones see an average summer.

SE fry? Far from it, ok it has probably been better than some areas but my station in Essex just recorded the wettest and coolest June for a while even 07 was drier and warmer! Tbh it's summed up best by changeable with a few days of warmth and sun and then a few days of cool and showery or wet.

The models indicate that nicely again with mon-fri showing drier before another low rolls in. Wouldn't be surprised if rainfall and sun both end up above avg again!

The southeast will always likely end up better in summer months because of it's shelter from the Atlantic and it's more favourable southerly position towards the equator!

Edited July 7, 2011 by Alex

[Derp Patrol]

thanks for that

... there isnt two months of summer left, there one and a half! :lol:

how many times in recent years has 30c+ been reached in august? or even july this side of '06? ... its rare... the point is that its highly unlikely that a hot spell will develop out of nothing. weather prediction deals with whats 'most likely' given the predicted data. the predicted data does not show any scope for a plume, high pressure, heat, outside of an odd ridge day (or two) here and there. until the teleconnections suggest a pattern change the chances of anything hot is extremely remote. so viewing the output, taking in to account that pattern changes often take a while to establish, then 'writing off' summer at this stage (in terms of a decent hot spell), half way through, looks a fair bet... unfortunately!

...and this mornings output makes poor viewing, gone are the fi teases, and theres nothing other then 'ordinary' 'average' british summer conditions, even perhaps below average at times.

Well it's subjective to where you live of course.. ok there's a month and 3.5 weeks of summer left, but I find that normally 'summer' extends to mid September in my area and sometimes longer. 30C isn't rare at all, since 2006 down here we've reached 30C on many occasions; and every month of May to September inclusive in every year since then has reached 25C so warm weather will never be ruled out completely.

August 07 - 30C

July 08 - 31C

June 09 - 31C, 32C

July 09 - 32C

August 09 - 30C

June 10 - 31C, 30C, 30C

July 10 - 31C, 32C

Even in the truly terrible summers of 2007 and 2008 we managed to get 30C and I even remember warm periods during that time. The previous 2 years that many people also slated had good spells - last July I recorded 4 weeks of temperatures at or above 23C in a row

So I think it's fine to slate the current output, but it really is just plain stupid to rule out a month in advance, nobody can predict that far ahead and untill someone has the evidence that they can then writing of future months is not very clever.

Edited July 7, 2011 by robthefool

[Derp Patrol]

Also, I don't see what's wrong with IMBY posts? We all know that our climate differs greatly as you move from Scotland and NW England to London and the south east. Lots of posts here seem to be slated for saying things such as 'it's going to be a nice day at 25C and sunny' Which may be true for that person who lives in London; while in Newcastle where it's going to be 18C and grey people argue against the first poster and ridicule him then a SE versus rest argument ends up happening.

I think people just need to look at the location box situated under the poster's name, as it would save a lot of arguing here; and if you wish you can ignore that person's posts if you see they are from somewhere in London and therefore their posts are not going to give a good reflection of the weather if you live in Glasgow. Let's face it I've never lived outside of London so there's no point in me trying to give a forecast for other areas as what would give 28C here might give 20C in northern areas, and I don't know the climate of these other areas enough to be able to say what each set up will bring to them, accounting for Haar winds etc of which I know nothing about.

[UV-RAY]

SE fry? Far from it, ok it has probably been better than some areas but my station in Essex just recorded the wettest and coolest June for a while even 07 was drier and warmer! Tbh it's summed up best by changeable with a few days of warmth and sun and then a few days of cool and showery or wet.

The models indicate that nicely again with mon-fri showing drier before another low rolls in. Wouldn't be surprised if rainfall and sun both end up above avg again!

The southeast will always likely end up better in summer months because of it's shelter from the Atlantic and it's more favourable southerly position towards the equator!

Sorry Alex, my comment was directed at one or two on here who can't grasp the idea of this being a model thread for the UK. Most on here give good summaries no matter where they come from, we all have a little IMBYism but we are here to discuss the UK, as well as our own locations.

Sorry for being off topic Mods.

Edited July 7, 2011 by Seven of Nine

[ribster]

Also, I don't see what's wrong with IMBY posts? We all know that our climate differs greatly as you move from Scotland and NW England to London and the south east. Lots of posts here seem to be slated for saying things such as 'it's going to be a nice day at 25C and sunny' Which may be true for that person who lives in London; while in Newcastle where it's going to be 18C and grey people argue against the first poster and ridicule him then a SE versus rest argument ends up happening.

I think people just need to look at the location box situated under the poster's name, as it would save a lot of arguing here; and if you wish you can ignore that person's posts if you see they are from somewhere in London and therefore their posts are not going to give a good reflection of the weather if you live in Glasgow. Let's face it I've never lived outside of London so there's no point in me trying to give a forecast for other areas as what would give 28C here might give 20C in northern areas, and I don't know the climate of these other areas enough to be able to say what each set up will bring to them, accounting for Haar winds etc of which I know nothing about.

See, that's simply not true, I don't have to look at most peoples location box on here, because the majority give a fair interpretation and analysis of the models for the whole of the UK, adding regional comments where necessary to indicate that some areas may fair well or badly as appropriate (I would give TWS as an example of many). Pretty much like the national weather forecast in fact. It seems to me that those getting most irritated are the die hard heat lovers, who can't be told that anything other than a full on heatwave is occurring, sorry to say while the weather isn't all that bad, it isn't all that great either (for the UK as a whole), distinctly average one might say!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS 6z is looking reasonably good for much of next week, up until Friday when we see more unsettled conditions spreading down from the NW. The first half of the week sees light winds everywhere so it will feel very warm even if temperatures just manage to reach average values. Night time temperatures will be below average i suspect before they rise towards the end of the week. So a decent settled spell to come from Sunday onwards and were certainly not witnessing a train of low pressure systems like during previous summers.

Agreed. What's notable about the current pattern IMO is the strength of the jet- the lows are taking quite a similar track to those during the summers of 2007 and 2008 with high pressure over Greenland but the jet is much slower and this is resulting in showery rather than dull wet weather as the lows track east, and then longer interludes of high pressure and associated dry sunny weather in between the low pressure systems.

Nothing spectacular heat wise but to my mind it does feel like we're properly into summer.

[EaasmanG]

Summary of the models

High pressure remains bold and firm over Greenland throughout the time period to 168 hours (one week).

For the UK,

Initially low pressure dominated with cold, wind rain and cloud til 60 hour.

High pressure ridges up north from the mid-Atlantic Ocean at about 72 hours. A maritime northerly wind develops on the eastern edge of this, right down over the british isles, so remaining cool/cold out til over 100 hours from now, but dryer though with much cloud and possible drizzle.

As we head towards a week out we see high pressure center develop jusT N of Scotland developing more of a NE flow and then riding stronger toward the south by 138 hours.

Towards a week out this center then appears to move into the north sea bringing a transient E/SE wind and perhaps one warm day with the next lot of low pressure making inroads by about 186 hours.

It would be right to conclude the continuation of below average temperatures for the most part, with probably higher levels of cloud than normal and also average amounts of rain for most areas.

Edited July 7, 2011 by EaasmanG

[Downpour]

See, that's simply not true, I don't have to look at most peoples location box on here, because the majority give a fair interpretation and analysis of the models for the whole of the UK, adding regional comments where necessary to indicate that some areas may fair well or badly as appropriate (I would give TWS as an example of many). Pretty much like the national weather forecast in fact. It seems to me that those getting most irritated are the die hard heat lovers, who can't be told that anything other than a full on heatwave is occurring, sorry to say while the weather isn't all that bad, it isn't all that great either (for the UK as a whole), distinctly average one might say!

All this would be fair comment were it not for the lack of regional threads during summertime. As there are none, regionalised model discussions have to go on here. I have now taken to headlining my posts [London/SE post] so members who wish to ignore the weather in the most populous region of the UK and focus on the heavy rain in Scotland can simply scroll past them.

Back to the models and [London/SE post] a good weekend and week in prospect in and around the capital - nothing breathtakingly hot, but some us don't like those conditions anyway, and plenty of pleasant summery weather to look forward to. Rain should clear by mid-late afternoon Friday.

[johnholmes]

If admin and mods will allow me to make a couple of observations about this thread.

The title says Model thread. As the web site is for the whole of the UK one would imagine that posts are to refer to the whole of the UK UNLESS you state specifically otherwise. I'm not aware that GFS/Net Wx/Extra are solely for one part of the UK and not the rest?

Its surely easy enough to do a link to express your opinion of, say afternoon temperatures look like being such and such for your area, clicking on the link will show the values for the whole of the UK.

Not sure what your afternoon value should be? Simply log on to the Met O web site, find the climate link and hey presto about 2 dozen stations dotted around the UK with one I'm sure reasonably close to your nearest town.

Nearest town? Now there is another thing, a number of folk are reluctant to put that in their avatar but wonder why when they say ,'in my area' or similar we all wonder where that is. If we all put the nearest town in our avatar that would solve that problem?

So just a couple of simple not at all difficult ideas to make this thread a generally easy place to visit rather than nit picking about the items above-how about it folks?

thanks admin/mods-hope it may help?

Edited July 7, 2011 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

Well it is only 7 July so there IS two months of summer left, save seven days. This is if you slavishly adhere to the Met Office summer- many of us still consider early and mid September as summer (warmer than May) and are traditionalists who say the first day of Autumn is September 21. Outlook looking benign and pleasant in the most populous regions of the UK, as the reasonable SE summer rolls on.

plus the two weeks the models currently predict and they say 'no' to a heatwave.

this is a weather forum, the meterological 'summer' is june-aug 31st... get over it. the season has nothing to do with heat index, so what if septembers warmer then may? september IS autumn, natures in fruiting mode, not flowering.

Well it's subjective to where you live of course.. ok there's a month and 3.5 weeks of summer left, but I find that normally 'summer' extends to mid September in my area and sometimes longer. 30C isn't rare at all, since 2006 down here we've reached 30C on many occasions; and every month of May to September inclusive in every year since then has reached 25C so warm weather will never be ruled out completely.

August 07 - 30C

July 08 - 31C

June 09 - 31C, 32C

July 09 - 32C

August 09 - 30C

June 10 - 31C, 30C, 30C

July 10 - 31C, 32C

Even in the truly terrible summers of 2007 and 2008 we managed to get 30C and I even remember warm periods during that time. The previous 2 years that many people also slated had good spells - last July I recorded 4 weeks of temperatures at or above 23C.

So I think it's fine to slate the current output, but it really is just plain stupid to rule out a month in advance, nobody can predict that far ahead and untill someone has the evidence that they can then writing of future months is not very clever.

ok, but i live in the cet zone, and i certainly havnt had a 30c+ on as many occassions as you, in fact i havnt had one since 06... so whilst favoured areas might see 30c, the bulk of the country doesnt.

Also, I don't see what's wrong with IMBY posts? We all know that our climate differs greatly as you move from Scotland and NW England to London and the south east. Lots of posts here seem to be slated for saying things such as 'it's going to be a nice day at 25C and sunny' Which may be true for that person who lives in London; while in Newcastle where it's going to be 18C and grey people argue against the first poster and ridicule him then a SE versus rest argument ends up happening.

I think people just need to look at the location box situated under the poster's name, as it would save a lot of arguing here; and if you wish you can ignore that person's posts if you see they are from somewhere in London and therefore their posts are not going to give a good reflection of the weather if you live in Glasgow. Let's face it I've never lived outside of London so there's no point in me trying to give a forecast for other areas as what would give 28C here might give 20C in northern areas, and I don't know the climate of these other areas enough to be able to say what each set up will bring to them, accounting for Haar winds etc of which I know nothing about.

because the models are nationwide..in fact they cover half the northern hemisphere. its the model discussion thread, not the 'what the weathers like in my back yard' thread... as others have said, members like gibby, jh, tws, etc manage to post a general nationwide prediction...

if only pressure would rise over the near continent next week, thus preventing that next trough repeating this current weather... unfortunately theres nothing to suggest anything hot is going to evolve. bad news for those of us who would like a decent hot spell (seeing as a mediterrainian holiday is not going to happen...lol), but on the plus side, no washout either. average july conditions (which is whats on offer for all) are pretty pleasant and can be enjoyed.

[Methuselah]

Oddy enough, when I was living in Inverness, I used to view the models with an Inverness bias. Now that I'm in London, I view them with a London bias...Surely it can't require a too huge leap-of-the-imagination to assume that many other people are drawn into a similar 'trap'?

I don't get all this IMBY/NIMBY bickering at all...Does it really matter?

PS: Would whiners please use the Whining Thread.

[Downpour]

I don't get all this IMBY/NIMBY bickering at all...Does it really matter?

PS: Would whiners please use the Whining Thread.

Quite - well said. As I say, if people don't want read posts on the models' likely effect on certain regions, they just scroll past them! It's not exactly a difficult concept to grasp.

[johnholmes]

but why not accept my request thereby stopping any of the complaining from folk about one part of the country or another being highlighted?

Surely its better to compromise a little rather than the phrase you just used?

[Downpour]

but why not accept my request thereby stopping any of the complaining from folk about one part of the country or another being highlighted?

Surely its better to compromise a little rather than the phrase you just used?

Hi John - your request was that people highlight them as regional posts, which I have started doing and agree that it's a good idea. Cheers.

[johnholmes]

Hi John - your request was that people highlight them as regional posts, which I have started doing and agree that it's a good idea. Cheers.

true but I did also suggest this-giving information to all so to speak

Its surely easy enough to do a link to express your opinion of, say afternoon temperatures look like being such and such for your area, clicking on the link will show the values for the whole of the UK.

this is the idea

temps tomorrow afternoon for the SE look like being XX but this link shows what the rest of the UK is predicted

http://www.netweathe...667f5f3e4f78c57

sorry did not work as I hoped it would never mind-I'll leave off boring folk and being off topic again

Edited July 7, 2011 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think as with so many things, it's all about extent. I think it's inevitable that people, in looking at the model outputs, are going to be biased towards their own regions to a certain extent, and I'm no exception. But I don't think it's reasonable to go to the extreme, deliberately focusing solely on one's own region and ignoring everywhere else (e.g. the old "there will be heat/snow/storms in the southeast so therefore this run is an 'upgrade' for the whole UK" type nonsense).

So really we have one request for both sides for sake of balance- don't post into MOD with an attitude of "my part of the UK is all that matters", but also don't "jump" when people, in attempting to give general comments, let a bit of regional bias creep in.

[UV-RAY]

I think as with so many things, it's all about extent. I think it's inevitable that people, in looking at the model outputs, are going to be biased towards their own regions to a certain extent, and I'm no exception. But I don't think it's reasonable to go to the extreme, deliberately focusing solely on one's own region and ignoring everywhere else (e.g. the old "there will be heat/snow/storms in the southeast so therefore this run is an 'upgrade' for the whole UK" type nonsense).

So really we have one request for both sides for sake of balance- don't post into MOD with an attitude of "my part of the UK is all that matters", but also don't "jump" when people, in attempting to give general comments, let a bit of regional bias creep in.

That was what I was referring too TWS, we all have an inbuilt bias towards our locality, but we are here to discuss the models for the UK. I'ts not rocket science, but some seem intent on doing as they please.

Edited July 7, 2011 by Seven of Nine

[Downburst]

I think the output is not too bad at all. If you go for a half way house between ECM and GFS at present the Azores high is ridging quite a bit into the British Isles. Average July weather we can expect. So get out there and enjoy it.

[Paul]

Regional discussions:

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Can we keep it to the models in here please....