8 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

[Richie V]

A video from work today showing some torrential rain, a waterfall off the old mill next door, a huge leak right by the warehouse electricity box thing and finally a member of my team getting over excited at the prospect of being on video! Hope this works lol! (best viewed in hd i think)

bb

Lol, a breath of fresh air that vid.... Nice work

[peterf]

loads of thunder, no flahes with heavy persistent rain.

iv'e had wetter farts lol.

[reef]

A very potent thunderstorm has just passed over here with frequent thunder and lightning, heavy rain and even hail.

Its the third major one today so its been a very good day.

Rather cool now it has passed at only 13.5C.

[sbiggs]

how long before its forecast East Anglia gets storms this evening?

[Staffordshire]

So what are estofex sayiNg for tommorow, I can't seem to find it?

[Stuart]

Last Updated: 20:56 Friday, 8th July 2011

Valid: 06:00 Saturday, 9th July 2011 - 05:59 Sunday, 10th July 2011

Areas Affected:

Mainland Scotland, N and E England (lower risk for Northern Ireland, E Ireland, E Wales, Midlands, East Anglia and West Country)

Synopsis:

A slowly filling and north-eastward moving vertically-stacked Low pressure system continues to dominate the weather across the United Kingdom. As the Low moves across the North Sea, the main emphasis of convective potential retreats progressively northwards. The main focus for convection is likely to be along the occluded front.

Discussion:

Diurnal heating will allow several hundred J/kg of CAPE to develop, creating an unstable atmosphere. Given T500\'s as low as -22C, steepening lapse rates will allow widespread convective showers to develop across northern and eastern Britain. With forecast ELT\'s as low as -50C in places, deep convection is expected with quite a few thunderstorms expected.

DLS is rather meagre, although greatest across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon with 30kts possible, whilst up to 20kts LLS is expected locally during the afternoon, enhanced along an convergence zones that develop. Consquently, a funnel or weak tornado cannot be ruled out, and current thinking would suggest the most likely location for such an event could be those counties around The Wash.

Given the cold upper temperatures and predicted values of CAPE, hail is likely in many of the showers, and an isolated moderate-sized hail event cannot be ruled out. Gusty winds will accompany stronger downdrafts.

Over Northern Ireland and Eastern Ireland, lower values of CAPE are predicted but nevertheless, numerous showers are expected and a few thunderstorms are also likely, although not as widespread as over Britain.

Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset, slowest to decay over Scotland.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/34

[Static Prevails]

Last Updated: 20:56 Friday, 8th July 2011

Valid: 06:00 Saturday, 9th July 2011 - 05:59 Sunday, 10th July 2011

Areas Affected:

Mainland Scotland, N and E England (lower risk for Northern Ireland, E Ireland, E Wales, Midlands, East Anglia and West Country)

Synopsis:

A slowly filling and north-eastward moving vertically-stacked Low pressure system continues to dominate the weather across the United Kingdom. As the Low moves across the North Sea, the main emphasis of convective potential retreats progressively northwards. The main focus for convection is likely to be along the occluded front.

Discussion:

Diurnal heating will allow several hundred J/kg of CAPE to develop, creating an unstable atmosphere. Given T500\'s as low as -22C, steepening lapse rates will allow widespread convective showers to develop across northern and eastern Britain. With forecast ELT\'s as low as -50C in places, deep convection is expected with quite a few thunderstorms expected.

DLS is rather meagre, although greatest across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon with 30kts possible, whilst up to 20kts LLS is expected locally during the afternoon, enhanced along an convergence zones that develop. Consquently, a funnel or weak tornado cannot be ruled out, and current thinking would suggest the most likely location for such an event could be those counties around The Wash.

Given the cold upper temperatures and predicted values of CAPE, hail is likely in many of the showers, and an isolated moderate-sized hail event cannot be ruled out. Gusty winds will accompany stronger downdrafts.

Over Northern Ireland and Eastern Ireland, lower values of CAPE are predicted but nevertheless, numerous showers are expected and a few thunderstorms are also likely, although not as widespread as over Britain.

Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset, slowest to decay over Scotland.

http://www.ukasf.co....rm-forecasts/34

It looks like I'm just outside of the risk zone tomorrow. Oh well, you can only use these forecasts as a general guide and anything could happen on the day! If there are no storms though, it seems like tomorrow will be a nice day anyway here.

[Norfolk Sheep]

how long before its forecast East Anglia gets storms this evening?

er...never?

We'll have to wait until August now...or maybe October...or possibly next June....

[Chris.R]

just had a torrential downpour here, not electrical though.

[Sprites]

Cheers for the info, oh well looks like my day of radar watching ends here. Off to watch My Family!

Enjoy, although doubt it will exceed what we saw on May 9th. Enjoy! Nothing here in Macc today.

the weather must be awful if it drives someone into watching my family

[lorrie]

all the storms missing me

[matt_in_dudley]

Not a sausage all day again...just lots of sharp showers

[Eabie]

Where thunderstorms are concerned, I've been doing the same since 23rd September 2010. I share your pain.

Nice skyscape today admittedly and did see a (very) distant CG at around 5:55pm but apart from that...

N O T H I N G!!

It's enough to drive ya barmy!

Phil.

I'm in the same boat... I heard one rumble of thunder today, and heard a few feeble ones on the 7th and 8th of May and when I was still in Canada. Beyond these few weak thundery rainshowers, I haven't had a storm since 10th September 2010... And since that was at 4:30 am and I only briefly woke up, you could even knock it back to 20th August really.

[Biggin]

Anything coming down South overnight / tomorrow morning??

[johnholmes]

this link should give everyone a realistic idea of how many times in this month your area is likely to receive a thunderstorm?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/7100_1km/Thunder_Average_1971-2000_7.gif

[Dom W]

Seems the lightning is dying out now. I can see the storms that are over east Yorkshire but the clouds are not lighting up

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not a sausage here again today, been that way for the past few 'convective' days. Certainly little in the way of convective activity impacting here. Today was probably are best and last shot from this particular synoptic set up but it proved once again fruitless. The wait goes on.

[paul m]

Not a sausage here again today, been that way for the past few 'convective' days. Certainly little in the way of convective activity impacting here. Today was probably are best and last shot from this particular synoptic set up but it proved once again fruitless. The wait goes on.

I share your pain so close but so far

[Guest]

A few rumbles again today but nothing that spectacular...

[Cheshire Freeze]

I share your pain so close but so far

It is frustrating. Having a window of 3 days opportunity and not even getting any particularly heavy rain, let alone thunder, is a bit of a kick in the goolies to be honest.

The best storm I've witnessed around these parts came from a day that wasn't even forecast to be severe. A localised, slow moving little torrential cell popped up seemingly out of nowhere which produced severe hail, thunder, lightning and flooding of roads and houses around the area. August 2007 it was. I'll never forget that storm.

[lewisosd]

Im out fishing for 48hrs. Now sitting in my bivvy waiting for fish! Any chance east anlia is gonna get anything 5 night? Got my camera and tripod just incase. Would love a nice electrical storm to keep me awake!

[shuggee]

New thread for Saturday here:

Just popping this in here - best storm in my 13 years in Edinburgh. Two and a half hours of fork lightning and then flash flooding.

[SimonP]

So what are estofex sayiNg for tommorow, I can't seem to find it?

Estofex haven't yet issued their forecast for Saturday.