8 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

[Coast]

Getting interesting now as the TORRO forecast is out!

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2011/005 & TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2011/12

A TORNADO WATCH & TORRRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION have been issued at 08:20GMT on Friday 8th July 2011

Valid from/until: 08:20 - 22:00GMT on Friday 8th July 2011, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

**TORNADO WATCH**

Eastern SW England SE Wales Much of the Midlands Cent S England E Anglia S Lincs

Surround the TORNADO WATCH area, a TCD has been issued for remaining portions of England and Wales

THREATS

TORNADO WATCH: Tornadoes; hail to 20mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; cloud to ground lightning

TCD: Isolated weak tornadoes; hail to 10-15mm diameter; wind gusts to 40mph; cloud to ground lightning; heavy rain

SYNOPSIS

Deep upper low will move slowly north-east through today. Wrap-around moisture/occluded front will move north-east to be followed by an unstable south-westerly flow. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop within this flow, and numerical model guidance is suggestive of one or more lines of showers/thunderstorms aligned with the flow within the TORNADO WATCH area. Deep layer shear will be sufficient for cell organisation. Low-level shear and convergence seem to be maximised in the WATCH area. If storms line up with the flow as suggested, 15-25 knots of 0-1km shear suggest the chance for small-scale waves to propagate along the line. Low-level flow would back locally ahead of any such waves, enhancing the tornado risk.

For the remainder of the CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION area - across northern parts of Wales and England, widespread showers and thunderstorms with local convergence zones, and low LCLs suggest the chance of isolated weak tornadoes, along with heavy rain and hail. Towards evening, stronger 850 hPa flow is progged to move up from the south into N Wales/southern N England - a tornado watch could be required here later.

Across SE England, showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning into the early afternoon, but guidance suggests that a drier slot will move in during the afternoon, with the chance of convection decreasing. There is a tornado risk this morning/early afternoon, but this decreases later.

Forecaster: RPK/MCD

[Stuart]

Thanks coast for that but to far sourth

[Coast]

Thanks coast for that but to far sourth

and a little too far North for me! Maybe some thunder later, but that middle band of the UK is one to watch for high winds and a possible tornado/hail

[bobbydog]

woah! not seen sustained torrential rain like this for a long time!!! local flooding i think....

[Chris.R]

I think I might get lucky today as I seem to be in a good place. I like the bit in the TORRO forecast on the possibility of issuing a tornado watch for my part of the world later on.

[Guest]

Good luck today, certainly a day full of potential for so many of us.

If I don't get a storm today then I'm running away from this country. I mean it mom!

[sbiggs]

Radars down again?!

[peterf]

damn radar off again.

[Jane Louise]

Radars down again?!

Oh no, not again! I expect they'll be back online in due course. It's probably due to us storm enthusiasts clogging up the servers.

I think I hear thunder, really!! not bins but I cant check on the radar grrrrr will keep you updated.

[Stuart]

it be a prob at the metoffice with the rader there not a thing to do with net weather

[Jane Louise]

it be a prob at the metoffice with the rader there not a thing to do with net weather

Yes Stu, you're right it isen't Netweathers fault.Sometimes the Met office radar goes down but it's soon up and running in no time.

I think it was wheelie bins I heard I'm still waiting to see if it was thunder. :lol:

[Craigers]

anyone seen the little rotation in north midlands on the radar??

[Stuart]

it be the wheelie bins your hearing jane

the rader back up now

[sbiggs]

well im back to cloud watching on http://www.sat24.com/gb and guessing where rain and cloud buildup is happening. cant see anything N Midlands, but can see clouds rotating just east of Bristol? Don't know if anyone knows what to look for in these cloud radars

Edited July 8, 2011 by sbiggs

[peterf]

it be the wheelie bins your hearing jane

the rader back up now

mines not,it's stuck at 9.30.

[gottolovethisweather]

What were you doing around Jane Louise's house then?

Perhaps we had better ask Steve B where he's wheelie bin, where he's really bin. arghhh

Sunny Intervals here, 13.8c, DP 13.5c and staedy barometer. An interesting correlation between the Air Temperature and the Dew Point so here's hoping!

Radar now back up and hopefully the convection can kick in now that clearish skies cover most of us in the south.

Thundery Cheers

gottolovethisweather

PS! the main area of interest may well be what appears to be a squall line (currently off north devon) as it tracks eastwards in the next few hours

Edited July 8, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[nimbus20]

mines not,it's stuck at 9.30.

too many wheelie bins in the way :lol:

[Stuart]

mines not,it's stuck at 9.30.

Hi peter

my is up to 9..55 here

Edited July 8, 2011 by Stuart

[Marcus_surfer]

Had some fairly torrential showers here this early morning, sunshine is coming out a bit now, all this energy is heading northwards into N Wales.

[Jane Louise]

My radar is up and running too. It's going to be an exciting day...

[nimbus20]

Getting progressively darker here now, and looking more threatening. One large cell to my WSW.

[tomp456]

Just had about 30 minutes of torrential rain. Shame it didn't thunder. meh.

[Mike Storm]

Heavy rain approaching me.....

[georgiedre]

Well it said this morning an all weather forecast that us in nw wales would have heavy rain but up to now we've only had a small shower.

[Purplepixii]

I got woken up at 5:30 this morning by very heavy rain and strong winds - I was having a nightmare about tornadoes too at the time! 5.6mm rainfall here (so far) today, 15.7oC, 91% humidity and wind gusting at 14.2km/h. Sun keeps appearing then disappearing behind clouds. Oh and the binmen haven't been yet so I'm keeping that fact in mind incase I hear "thunder"