8 July 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports

[sbiggs]

I can see that thing now on the rain radar. Is that a supercell? west of Nottinghamcos its circular and rotating. Bit worried about that because it reminds me of watching Stormchasers and they mention havign a hook? Heading NNE (or NNNNNE if such a thing)

[Craigers]

I can see that thing now on the rain radar. Is that a supercell? west of Nottinghamcos its circular and rotating. Bit worried about that because it reminds me of watching Stormchasers and they mention havign a hook? Heading NNE (or NNNNNE if such a thing)

its heading here at my work place!

[Jane Louise]

1pm and 4pm I should have a storm :lol: the Met Office has a thunderstorm symbol for my area on both those times! My storm risk is also showing 51% from 10am until 4pm today. Certainly looks quite promising.

[Coast]

1pm and 4pm I should have a storm :lol: the Met Office has a thunderstorm symbol for my area on both those times! My storm risk is also showing 51% from 10am until 4pm today. Certainly looks quite promising.

It certainly gets more likely as the day progresses, I understand that the next couple of hours are key to my area with more due further North and East later.

[Stuart]

and for my area is going miss it l all ways seem to stop in northeast England this year

[SteveB]

I am wheelie annoyed the radar is down, in a level 1 & high risk hatched area... and its bin day.... its all to much.

Radar back up and running

Edited July 8, 2011 by SteveB

[chris78]

Met office had main warnings for nw yesterday......can anyone tell me if that is looking less likely as events unfold?

[dave reid]

Lol - like to know your have your priorities right!

If I were going to Sailsbury I would head for Old Sarum. It is a high hill with 360 degree view. Head on out of Sailsbury towards Stonehenge and you should see sign posts. Free to park. Hope you get lucky!

Thanks for the tip. Just about to hit the road now.Will upload any pics I get later on this eve.

Good luck all.

[Paul Sherman]

I can see that thing now on the rain radar. Is that a supercell? west of Nottinghamcos its circular and rotating. Bit worried about that because it reminds me of watching Stormchasers and they mention havign a hook? Heading NNE (or NNNNNE if such a thing)

Very Interesting Radar Signature, almost impossible to tell if it was a Supercell from Radar alone. You need to be standing in front of it visually really to see the rain get wrapped back into the Hook (Wrapping Rain Curtains) By the looks of it anyone around the Tamworth area would have been in a Prime position for any structure.

[Lancashire Lass]

Met office had main warnings for nw yesterday......can anyone tell me if that is looking less likely as events unfold?

Hi Chris METO have severe weather warnings in place for today and tomorrow for the NW. Heavy rain and thunder. From what I can see it has been updated this morning. However the METO website is being a swine and not loading properly.

[mark24374]

Nothing much to report here in tamworth had a bit of rain dry at the moment waiting to see what happens later.

[Muffelchen]

Rain has just started from the rotating shower cluster as it has just reached Doncaster (where I work). Too much low level cloud to determine any structure but no thuinder at the mo.

[gottolovethisweather]

Very Interesting Radar Signature, almost impossible to tell if it was a Supercell from Radar alone. You need to be standing in front of it visually really to see the rain get wrapped back into the Hook (Wrapping Rain Curtains) By the looks of it anyone around the Tamworth area would have been in a Prime position for any structure.

Interesting observation Paul.

What's your opinion on the action for the rest of the day, please sir? Where do you think will be the prone hit areas.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Paul Sherman]

Interesting observation Paul.

What's your opinion on the action for the rest of the day, please sir? Where do you think will be the prone hit areas.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

I would say once this occlusion clear the East coast around 12-1pm then the Welsh Showers will affect from S Wales up towards Lincs and Humber, but keep and eye on further Showers and Storms from Devon later running up from SW-NE Towards East Anglia affecting mainly C Southern England towards the Wash. Kent and far SE Could be watching all those shower clouds to their North come 3-6pm today.

[Guest]

Nothing much to report here in tamworth had a bit of rain dry at the moment waiting to see what happens later.

Nor here really, mainly light rain and breezy winds.

Looking forward to what the afternoon holds!

[sunny scunny]

Crikey it's actually raining in scunny.Quite a heavy shower passing through at presant.

[Richie V]

I am wheelie annoyed the radar is down, in a level 1 & high risk hatched area... and its bin day.... its all to much.

Radar back up and running

Yep the wheelie bins rumbling along sometimes sound like thunder..... HIGHLY annoying!

[A.J]

Very Interesting Radar Signature, almost impossible to tell if it was a Supercell from Radar alone. You need to be standing in front of it visually really to see the rain get wrapped back into the Hook (Wrapping Rain Curtains) By the looks of it anyone around the Tamworth area would have been in a Prime position for any structure.

Yep, noticed that earlier on radar, It passed to my east, but couldn't see any cloud structure due to low level murk & crud....Members on the Skywarn board have been watching it with some interest...Glyn Jones had this to say..."Pretty funky borad mid-level vortex moving across Derby area right now, not a threat but gives some idea of the shear situation right now."

(I take it that it's ok to qoute from other boards providing credit is given??)

The Occl is encroaching now from the SW into the west midlands, hopefully storms will quickly fire in its wake....I'm going to Leicester shortly, then taking a slow drive back through Tamworth, Ashby, Burton-Upon-Trent across to Stafford....Hopefully should be a good area

[gottolovethisweather]

affecting mainly C Southern England

Many Thanks Paul.

Certainly sounds a great day impending convection wise and I do like the sound of your predictions, all very IMBY.

A current radar grab for you guys n gals, courtesy of NW v5.

Bring it on, Thor and his friends.

Thundery Regards

gottolovethisweather

[JinxTheCat]

Just had a torrential downpour in sw Brum. Sun's out again now

[Lauren]

Well it has been chucking it down here for the last hour. No thunderyness to note.

[Coast]

OK, SkyWarn joining the party now, all pretty much in line with what others are saying:

Last Update: 0900UTC Friday 8th July 2011

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #036

ISSUED: 0900UTC FRIDAY 8TH JULY 2011 (GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

ALL AREAS ENGLAND

SOUTHERN SCOTLAND

NORTH WALES

EAST WALES

IN EFFECT FROM 1000UTC UNTIL 2200UTC FRIDAY 8TH JULY

NEUTRALLY TILTED LOW SYSTEM WITH INNER OCCLUSION SPREADING ACROSS MAINLAND UK

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...MODERATE HAIL...STRONG GUSTS...LIGHTNING...FUNNELS/TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONG SHORT-RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT ON A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MANY PARTS OF ENGLAND TODAY. A FRAGMENTING OCCLUDED FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WITH SHEAR STRENGTH SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANISATION AND DIRECTION CONDUCIVE FOR FUNNEL AND WEAK TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. FROM WALES THROUGH WEST MIDLANDS AND TOWARD NORTHWEST ENGLAND MAIN RISKS ARE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. THE MIDLANDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTS REGIONS ARE UNDER A SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILE FOR BETTER ORGANISED STORMS WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADO RISK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SCOTLAND, AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ENGLAND BUT SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WITH ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE GUSTS POSSIBLY HIGHER THAN 50KTS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

[pottyprof]

Very Interesting Radar Signature, almost impossible to tell if it was a Supercell from Radar alone. You need to be standing in front of it visually really to see the rain get wrapped back into the Hook (Wrapping Rain Curtains) By the looks of it anyone around the Tamworth area would have been in a Prime position for any structure.

Certainly rotation occurring on that feature as it's working it's way over here but it's more like a small low pressure area with an eye to it. Sun came out briefly.....

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like that first band approaching Tyne and Wear is more like a fragmented area of frontal rain, but there will probably be some excitement from mid-afternoon onwards once it has passed through.

[Coast]

Wind shear seems to peak this afternoon:

Windy at the surface too: