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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
raining here now! boring lol! cant wait for the winter! i really hope we get snow again this year! :)

We wish for it - then wish for it gone just as quickly!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Defenetley convective - SHRA SCT012CB at Brize!

Ties in with the GFS charts I posted this morning for the Home Counties, but a low risk I would have thought?

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

WO!!!! Torrential rain, thunder and lightning, out of nowhere! Totally unexpected.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted (edited)

Had a rain rate of 120.9 mm/hr.

Edited by Aaron
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Totally unexpected.

It actually is!!!! huh.png

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Yep, you're certainly lucky Aaron biggrin.pngcray.gif

Sunshine and showers all day here, hoping to catch a rumble or two latersmile.png But I doubt that will happen in Cheltenham * the land of no storms *grrrrr.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Yep, you're certainly lucky Aaron biggrin.pngcray.gif

Sunshine and showers all day here, hoping to catch a rumble or two latersmile.png But I doubt that will happen in Cheltenham * the land of no storms *grrrrr.

I wasn't thinking of thunder at all today. Maybe that's the trick. wink.pnglaugh.png

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Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
Posted (edited)

Yep, you're certainly lucky Aaron biggrin.pngcray.gif

Sunshine and showers all day here, hoping to catch a rumble or two latersmile.png But I doubt that will happen in Cheltenham * the land of no storms *grrrrr.

Poor Jane

had 3.9mm just last hour

Edited by Stuart
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

hoping to catch a rumble or two latersmile.png

Me too, is it tea time? rolleyes.gif

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

I wasn't thinking of thunder at all today. Maybe that's the trick. wink.pnglaugh.png

You know Aaron, I must try that too laugh.png I'm always thinking about thunderstorms lol and you're probably right that's why they never happen for me.nonono.gif It's very rare for me to say this, but...... I am actually looking forward to Winter this year,biggrin.png Summer dosen't give me storms anymore.sad.png

Poor Jane

had 3.9mm just last hour

I know Stu you got to feel sorry for mecray.gifHey, there's always next year I suppose...say no more lol

Me too, is it tea time? rolleyes.gif

I wish it was as I'd rather a different kind of rumble to be honest lol

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

The days are soon becoming less likely to Thunder, unless Autumn brings a plume. I remember some seriously big Thunderstorms (probably an MCS) in early October about 10 years or more back, but not anything recently.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Sunday's chance receding a little now, still some chance further North:

MU_London_avn.png

MU_Manchester_avn.png

MU_Aberdeen_avn.png

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Sunday's chance receding a little now, still some chance further North:

MU_London_avn.png

MU_Manchester_avn.png

MU_Aberdeen_avn.png

Appears to have jumped back up for us now :D

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Appears to have jumped back up for us now biggrin.png

I always hotlink so the comments don't always match the current chart! I'm away this weekend down West, so won't be around to enjoy anything that does materialise anyway.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Not got time to explain fridays convective potential but it does look interesting!

there be thunder for sure but can we get any cells to break out? now that would be told nearer the time, in fact might happen on the day when we dont expect it, as we know can do!

heres a quick chart to indicate whats possiblebiggrin.png

and the CAPE/Lifted index charts from GFS - 18z

lower pressure by friday moving this lovely weather away

post-11361-0-95803200-1316053829_thumb.g

post-11361-0-45063600-1316053826_thumb.g

post-11361-0-04264600-1316053828_thumb.g

post-11361-0-48524500-1316053832_thumb.p

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Not got time to explain fridays convective potential but it does look interesting!

there be thunder for sure but can we get any cells to break out?

Seems like a low probability on Friday:

gfs_cape_eur39.png

gfs_icape_eur39.png

gfs_layer_eur39.png

It will rain across the Midlands though:

gfs_kili_eur39.png

gfs_pw_eur39.png

gfs_lfc_eur39.png

gfs_lapse_eur39.png

Possible funnel around Wales into Staffs?

gfs_srh_eur39.png

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

For Friday, models show a shortwave upper trough with colder air in it and surface fronts moving NE across Ireland then northern and western Britain by the afternoon. This will bring cloud and outbreaks of locally heavy rain, but perhaps also some embedded convection/storms, given strong forcing/PVA lobe indicated moving NE over central Britain at the left exit of the jet stream and forward side of shortwave moving NE. Any thunder most likely across Eire, Wales, northern England and southern Scotland.

Then over the weekend, colder air aloft spreads across the whole of the UK, as an upper low develops over Nern Britain, so heavy showers and thundestorms likely for many places both days, circulating around low moving E over Scotland.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Nice clouds growing here, wind's seem to be blowing towards each other... Coast->Land

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

I really feel like I've just been sat here twiddling my thumbs for months waiting for something, anything to happen.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

I really feel like I've just been sat here twiddling my thumbs for months waiting for something, anything to happen.

You should get a hobby..... unsure.png

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