UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

[Costa Del Fal]

Tomorrow has good energy available and quite Low Lifted Index's for only Modest Cape at most. However very little will occur thanks to quite a strong Cap over us though it looks like this may be weaker in parts of Wales and the West Midlands so a slight risk here. Saturday sees less of a Cap but also less instability but this is something thats popped up recently so you never know.

[Coast]

Saturday sees less of a Cap but also less instability but this is something thats popped up recently so you never know.

I'm liking Saturday more, but being on the South coast I can see a little more margin for us getting those storms (not a big margin please note!)

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, Saturday is the better day right now. Im sure something will screw it up anyway... :lol:

[Jane Louise]

Tomorrow is looking good for me whereas Saturday has a little potential but not as good! I shall eagerly be watching the radars tomorrow. Good luck all for tomorrow and the weekend.

[Weather Wizard]

Estofex now out and not brilliant unless you live in ireland

[Costa Del Fal]

Tomorrow is looking good for me whereas Saturday has a little potential but not as good! I shall eagerly be watching the radars tomorrow. Good luck all for tomorrow and the weekend.

Sadly tomorrow is actually not very good. A strong Cap in place preventing anything from breaking out it seems however in the area of instability the GFS and NMM have indicated Gloucestershire, SE Wales and the West Midlands to be the zone where the Cap is weakest around evening but this risk seems low.

Interestingly the NAE develops an area of showers from 1800 to 0000 tomorrow over our region. They may be Thundery if the conditions are right. However knowing our luck, the Cap will be too strong. Something to keep in mind tomorrow though.

Edited September 8, 2011 by Blizzards

[ZONE 51]

For period saturday(today)10th september to early morning 11th sept sunday

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risk of thunderstorms for some areas-my attention is draw to Southern England from saturday evening(this eve/tonight)

GFS shows some unstable air indicated by the yellow on lifted index charts, cold front crossing UK through the day followed by trough feature, the cold front cold develop heavy rain as it crosses from west to east, NAE shows it decaying on eastern side, but i would not rule out some thunder somewhere along the front, very humid and warm air sits across the SE especially as front moves into these areas later towards afternoon, staying warm and humid in EA/SE and maybe abit further north in east.

later in day and evening/overnight thunderstorms may break out across southern areas, GFS showing unstable air, with warm and muggy in the SE, NAE shows this convection up well on the charts below.

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so much going on this weekend with quite alot of thundery potential so keep track of the convective threads as much as the wind storm ones!

its going to be a very busy weekend and hard work for the forecasters keeping track of all this.

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And once the cold front clears(forgot to say!)that it wont feel as humid, but staying warm in EA and SE and a bit further north of there.

Edited September 10, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Bluebreezer54]

^^ Im really liking these summaries, and the charts to go with them ESS. Very helpful. Fingers crossed for me down here on the South Coast as well, nice one !!

[MP-R]

A sudden growth in shower activity over CS England at the moment.

[loopydreamer]

yep! can see nice chuck of precip on its way to s/e regions

[Neilsouth]

Odd lack of interest from that rain coming up towards the south east!, lots of reds and the odd white

[Chris K]

We just had a torrential shower, no thunder or anything. Lasted only 5 minutes, if that, but the amount of water that came down was insane. Cleared up nicely and blue sky is back already apart from the south of me which is very dark.

[Joey.G]

Even a few sferics showing here

Edited September 10, 2011 by Joey.G

[MR CB]

Heavy rain here on the South Coast with a rumble of thunder - well better late than never!

[Lynxus]

Just had the heaviest downpour of the year.

Rivers everywhere! Rain pouring off roofs, Gutters cant handle.

Wow.

[DeepSnow]

Just had a torrential shower with massive raindrops, gave 3.6mm of rain within 1-2 munites then stopped! Looked very stormy!

[Staffordshire]

Radar shows rain heading towards me but nothing yet...

[Jane Louise]

Wow, a massive downpour here, how cool lol.No thunderstorm though!

Just caught the edge of the rainband which is moving up Northwards to Tewkesbury.

[matt_in_dudley]

Gone very dark here in Brownhills!

[Sprites]

Heavy rain here on the South Coast with a rumble of thunder - well better late than never!

A kent Clipper! , some nice altocumulus and jellyfish in places too, maybe an interesting sunset later.

[Neilsouth]

A kent Clipper! , some nice altocumulus and jellyfish in places too, maybe an interesting sunset later.

Doubtful as it's nearly 6pm and the cloud is getting ever deeper and spread out

[Sprites]

I can hear alot of sferics now, kent and sussex ??

Oh its just the wrong side of the eanglish channel ,makes a change!

[Neilsouth]

Black to my south west and west now

[Team Jo]

On the Thames estuary -near cirri ham, Essex at my folks place. Dad and I are barbecuing in a bit of a downpour, clouds moving v fast, still v humid...... Couple of rumbles would be welcome!!

[loopydreamer]

its been raining here for around 20 mins! quite heavyish! No thunder