UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

[Raidan]

Was just looking on the net for some info about what the papers have been saying about thunderstorms to end summer and came across this,It's someones comment about forecasting thunderstorms and they have a dig at Netweather

It's a bold enough statement predicting thunderstorms at the best of times but I'd dearly love to know what planet Netweather are living on by suggesting that these thunderstorms will be accompanied by hail, winds and tornadoes. Tornardoes??? Now that really is boldly going where not many weather forecasters have gone before. Both Netweather and Metoffice have once again dropped a real clanger here. Thunderstorms? We didn't even see a cumulonimbus cloud, temperatures were warm and the rain non-existent.This goes down in history as quite frankly the most ridiculous weather prediction and if Netweather & Metoffice can't even predict thunderstorms correctly, there really isn't any hope.Tags: channel:news , type:article , article-url:http://www.metro.co.uk/news/867546-britains-heatwave-to-end

[anvilhead]

wondering if thats a wave forming on the cold front heading up past brest - might make things interesting if so ..

storms for me by the way, although I love snow

[ZONE 51]

1-very interesting reading about thoughts on our non-imports, and would be a good thread. i think their is a connection between the winters of more widespread snow and ice and the jet stream and of course high pressure and with that non-imports.

2-whos putting down our NetWeather and MetOffice in the papers..make your own predictions then if you think you can do better then them.

3-yes watching the cold front with interest because it is warm moist air ahead of it, being pushed and pulled away east now though i would think, but i do think as NAE shows an area of heavy rainfall in the east especially SE/EA then its worth watching.

[Nick F]

Was just looking on the net for some info about what the papers have been saying about thunderstorms to end summer and came across this,It's someones comment about forecasting thunderstorms and they have a dig at Netweather

It's a bold enough statement predicting thunderstorms at the best of times but I'd dearly love to know what planet Netweather are living on by suggesting that these thunderstorms will be accompanied by hail, winds and tornadoes. Tornardoes??? Now that really is boldly going where not many weather forecasters have gone before. Both Netweather and Metoffice have once again dropped a real clanger here. Thunderstorms? We didn't even see a cumulonimbus cloud, temperatures were warm and the rain non-existent.This goes down in history as quite frankly the most ridiculous weather prediction and if Netweather & Metoffice can't even predict thunderstorms correctly, there really isn't any hope.Tags: channel:news , type:article , article-url:http://www.metro.co.uk/news/867546-britains-heatwave-to-end

It's all very easy to snear and snigger at thunderstorms forecasts when they don't come off, but thunderstorms are very difficult to forecast exactly where they are likely to occur - as their development are prone to many variables - which can change at short notice. All the ingredients were there from looking at model forecast parameters which led to this particular forecast for severe weather, however, it didn't come off as planned - as the front progressing from the west ended up moving east slower than forecast. The next day saw the stormy breakdown instead.

I agree with the thoughts of many yesterday evening that there has been a fundamental shift in thunderstorm distrubution, particularly storms affecting us from Spanish Plume set-ups. Certainly from memory there were alot more thundery episodes from warm humid southerlies in the 1990s - characterised by MCSs that would carry on through the night as they spread north. These plume set-ups have markedly decreased. These last 10 or so years it seems most storms to develop in returning polar maritime airmasses.

[staplehurst]

Maybe one of the guys at Reading or UEA Can look into this for a dissertation, there must be a reason

Good idea about the dissertation, come on guys what you say, do a useful dissertation and find the answer.

Just reading through the past 3 pages or so from last night (wasn't able to keep abreast with the situation sadly) - I am very keen to look at this for my dissertation. I'm not sure how I'd go about looking at the changes in our Spanish Plumage, but I would definitely like to know what's going on!

Technically I can start my dissertation at any time from now onwards, it's due to be handed in for Jan 2013.

Oh, and in answer to the snow v storm debate, I'd definitely choose storms anyday! I thoroughly enjoy convective weather and hope to go Storm Chasing in the States someday soon. My love for snow has declined in the past couple of years primarily down to how much of a nuisance it became due to the sheer amount of snow we had at times.

[Sprites]

Storms or snow?

Thundersnow would be good, i'd choose thunderstorms , winter can be lovely sometimes,but i dont like the cold and dark months.

could be a few rumbles nxt week as we get the heavy showers again.

[dogs32]

I DO NOT BELIEVE IT!!!!!!!!!!! Lol seriously this country is Rank for Storms, you would think the Channel would be warm enough this time of year, Dp's across the SE Of 17c a little while ago as well. What are we going to blame this on now, have seen people on other forums saying the CF Is advancing quicker but it looks like it is still West of Dorset to me so cant blame it on that.

I stand by what I said a few days ago, something fundamentally has changed with the Set-Up of our Storms coming up from France over the last 10-15 years, even the MCS Of a few years ago initiated around the IOW. I am just glad I can get myself out to the USA For 2 months of the year where Storms have no such problem of initiating even in Temperatures of 12c in Colorado this May which went on to become Supercellular!

+

and you get decent pizza lol

see u state side mate

as far as I know the village of Cheltenham as gone through two Stormless yrs now...thats a record!!!

Im not on about the odd crack of rumble

Edited September 4, 2011 by dogs32

[Coast]

you would think the Channel would be warm enough this time of year

I stand by what I said a few days ago, something fundamentally has changed with the Set-Up of our Storms coming up from France over the last 10-15 years

Well here's the SST for Goodwin Sands this month so far, which has been consistently +/- 0.5 DgC since 2008:

Here's the combined data from that buoy:

Although this is only relatively recent data, I'd be really interested to see if it has any bearing on the lack of storms getting into the SE or if it is some other change such as jet-stream position, upper atmosphere or Spanish plumes running out of steam. The difference between SST and land surface temp wasn't that great, only maybe 4 DgC on our side by as much as 12 DgC on the French side?

As to last nights Kent clipper (sorry non clipper) most models were pretty good within three days of showing it wasn't on the books, so the forecasting isn't going astray from what I can see, they just aren't happening!

[Static Prevails]

To be fair, I've ruled out seeing anything here for the rest of the year. After not having a single rumble of thunder in August, and only a few showers with the odd rumble before then, it can make you quite negative.

[chionomaniac]

Was just looking on the net for some info about what the papers have been saying about thunderstorms to end summer and came across this,It's someones comment about forecasting thunderstorms and they have a dig at Netweather

It's a bold enough statement predicting thunderstorms at the best of times but I'd dearly love to know what planet Netweather are living on by suggesting that these thunderstorms will be accompanied by hail, winds and tornadoes. Tornardoes??? Now that really is boldly going where not many weather forecasters have gone before. Both Netweather and Metoffice have once again dropped a real clanger here. Thunderstorms? We didn't even see a cumulonimbus cloud, temperatures were warm and the rain non-existent.This goes down in history as quite frankly the most ridiculous weather prediction and if Netweather & Metoffice can't even predict thunderstorms correctly, there really isn't any hope.Tags: channel:news , type:article , article-url:http://www.metro.co.uk/news/867546-britains-heatwave-to-end

Raidan,

I don't think that this was the most ridiculous weather prediction given the amount of information at that time. To use an analogy if there has been a drought and tinderbox conditions exist, then the risk for fires is great, however it doesn't mean that there will be a fire. Should one wait for a fire before issuing a warning?

In this case there was potential for severe storms to break out but only if the cap was broken. If the warm dry air cap is too strong for the moist thermals to rise and break through then no storms will occur. A temperature difference of just 1ºC between layers may make all the difference between a busted forecast and storms that could quickly turn severe. So a small temperature difference between boundary layers can give a massive difference with the weather experienced. This small difference as Nick F has said was due to a cold front crossing the country slower than anticipated. These kind of busted days can be all too commonplace when chasing storms in the USA and it is something that the chaser has to get used to. However, in England a cap bust can seem a terrible forecasting failure because there are so few times nowadays when we even have the chance of that occurring.

For me, the cap bust day was great because the delay was sufficient for me to experience a number of terrific storm cells the next day.

Edited September 4, 2011 by chionomaniac

[Coast]

I don't think that this was the most ridiculous weather prediction given the amount of information at that time.

I would also point out that the comment was by a single reader who has since gained a -3 rep for it!!!

http://www.metro.co....s-and-tornadoes

[chionomaniac]

I would also point out that the comment was by a single reader who has since gained a -3 rep for it!!!

http://www.metro.co....s-and-tornadoes

Make that -4!

[Lauren]

We have hail forecast for 13.00 on the BBC. In all my life, I've never seen hail forecast on BBC, it's either been rain or snow. Of course it must have been forecast before, just never seen it.

[Mike Storm]

well some heavy 'stuff' is heading for our direction and should arrive just as i have to drive to Maidstone

[Joey.G]

well some heavy 'stuff' is heading for our direction and should arrive just as i have to drive to Maidstone

Has been pouring here in Reading, no thunder heard and it doesnt really look it either, but for garden soaking it dont get much better!

[Callie]

Just started raining here, been grey all morning and no sign of any storms!

[Costa Del Fal]

Lol,look at here and notice how the lightning basically curves around the Kent and East Anglian coast. It really does look as if a shield was in place. http://brunnur.vedur...r/i_dag_na.html

What ive noticed in the last few summers is the lack of SEly winds . Maybe this combined with low pressure in control nearby would send Storms in our direction because every time lately there is always some westerly element to the wind just taking them away from the UK.

Looking at the above link and this has happened many times this year, why can many storms track ALL of the North Sea to Norway and struggle to do in comparison "a few miles" of the channel? What we really need is High pressure to our East and good Low pressure to our West to get a Southerly or South Easterly but in the last few summers especially this seems pretty much impossible!

However we did nearly have the right set up on May 6th/7th This year when the Low out west and Higher pressure to the East allowed Southerly/South Easterly winds to us. The 6th allowed storms from SW England through the West Mids and further. Although I dont think there was anything from France that time. On the 7th we had that mass of rain covering many of us from S/SEly winds. If these were storms we really would have been in business but our luck was not so that time.

No doubt something has happened to markedly decrease the classic Summer storm in the UK. Saying that, some of the Home grown ones here this year have been pretty good!

Edited September 4, 2011 by Blizzards

[Raidan]

Afternoon,The way i see it forecasting is a very difficult thing to do,yes it's easy to have a go at forums when things dont go to plan but it's not there fault or anybody else's,People should appreciate the time and effort by people who gather information weather there a novice or a expert,Forums give information on what COULD happen,doesn't mean it will.

[anvilhead]

I agree with you RE rank for storms Paul! One thing I've noticed over the last few years is that storms have no problem exploding when they get into the north sea - its more about synoptics than sst's for the channel. There must be some reason why the dividing line is in the same place every time and we dont get a look in -

Edited September 4, 2011 by anvilhead

[staplehurst]

Very frustrating to see the same area of thundery potential failed to materialise over the Channel last night yet as soon as it hops to the North Sea - bang!

[pottyprof]

One or two sferrics starting to show over S Lincs area. Surprised it's not started before now......

[kold weather]

The only thing I can think is we've now been in a rut of near constant strong El nino and La Nina events and every time they help to strengthen either the southern or northern flank of the jet. I'd imagine this fgives abit more energy to the jet and forces the storms that form over France/Spain to get pushed more to the NE rather then say the NNE like they might do during neutral events. The 80s for example had very little in the way of major ENSO events (83 El nino, late 80s Nina are the only two I can think off that were strong) where as in 2000s we've had the tail end of a long La Nina, a mod/strong El nino in 2002, 2006 and 2009 and a strong La Nina in 2007-2009 and 2010 as well...the latter half of the 90s also had something similar.

[Supacell]

I have been watching GFS charts for the last couple of days and looks like the possibility of something brewing Friday and into the weekend for southern half of the uk. Friday night could pose a thundery threat and further opportunities after.

[Coast]

I have been watching GFS charts for the last couple of days and looks like the possibility of something brewing Friday and into the weekend for southern half of the uk. Friday night could pose a thundery threat and further opportunities after.

Maybe Friday night and just into Saturday early hours:

Looks interesting on the strength of the current GFS models

[dallas]

I see the "press" are talking about storms too