UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

[loopydreamer]

well i was woken in the early hours of the morning by torrential rain but did not hear thunder

[Neilsouth]

Everyone keeps going on about that damn ex hurricane katia and we have lots of showers about, gone dark to my south.

[Rob]

Nothing much on the radar?

[Chris K]

Yea, apart from a few moderate showers, with maybe the odd heavy one, there isn't that much predicted for the South of the UK in terms of convective activity. In fact not much for the rest of this week either at the moment. So naturally most people will prefer to talk about Ex Hurriance Katia as it moves in. Tomorrow for me in my area, I'm expecting it to be a case of bright skies and gusty wind but nothing too severe. Any rain is meant to have cleared by the time I'm on my way to work in the morning.

Edited September 11, 2011 by Bugganuts

[Rob]

I think the best chance for anything convective was yesterday, any showers this week are very unlikely to show any thundery potential, fingers crossed we get a thundery outbreak late September/October before we move into winter!

[Gord]

Looks like another blustery shower is about to race through.

Early to mid-autumn can be really good for thundery activity. The second half of September last year was one of the West Midland's most thundery periods of the year. Of course, if you live on the east coast...the potential for thunder never goes away through the winter, as they proved last November and December!

[Sprites]

Next friday has a potential thundery setup ,with lows over Biscay and a south-south west flow, along way off , a lack of southerly steering winds has led to low thunder days this year in the south, ive seen decent storms in mid october ,so still a month or so left...

[Neilsouth]

http://www.camvista.com/watch-live-video/europe/germany_berlin_capital_city_streaming_webcam.html

thunderstorm in Berlin now

[Coast]

Nothing convective in today's events, but a good overview from UKASF:

Areas Affected:

None.

Synopsis:

The remains of Hurricane Katia have combined with a mid-latitude cyclone and will finally make landfall into western Scotland during the middle part of the day. A large area of low pressure with a central pressure of around 969mb will cross Scotland during the afternoon. Through the early morning hours a cold front will push a swathe of rain across most parts of Britain followed by blustery winds, with gales possible in Northern England and SW Scotland in particular.

Discussion:

During Sunday Katia failed to develop any notable cold front, indicating some very warm, moist air in the central circulation of the system. During the early morning hours, however, as the system continues to rotate, cooler air will begin to wrap around the western and later southern flank of the system, and the cold front will become more of a feature bringing some rain to many parts of Britain. Very blustery winds will filter across all parts of Britain after the cold front passes, however gale force winds with damaging gusts are possible across SW Scotland and the northern Pennines of Northern England. As typical with mid-latitude cyclones the wind field will extend away from the centre, thus where the actual centre crosses will be light to moderate with the strongest winds driven south of the low centre on the forward edge of a 150kt + jet streak.

Convective potential will be severely limited by cloud cover and strong wind shear thus thunder is very unlikely (even closer to the low centre where there could be some remnant warm air). However, with any shallow convective elements wind shear could produce a few small, very fast moving, tornadoes, although they would be very hard to verify given the strenght of the mean synoptic flow.

[Stormraider]

Looks like another blustery shower is about to race through.

Early to mid-autumn can be really good for thundery activity. The second half of September last year was one of the West Midland's most thundery periods of the year. Of course, if you live on the east coast...the potential for thunder never goes away through the winter, as they proved last November and December!

I remember the huge storm on the 23rd last year. Was living in Willenhall just outside Wolverhampton... fantastic storm.

[Raidan]

Have lost interest in the low coming in from the south west now,Cant find anything that shows it could be thundery,Ah well thank god i'll be in France next year.

[Sprites]

could be a few sharp showers tomorrow in east anglia and south midlands

[Eskimo]

HURRY UP WINTER!

[Raidan]

Thats odd its raining here but not showing on BRR or Meteox

[loopydreamer]

here comes a line of squally showers! entering south west regions! wonder if they will fizzle as they come further inland?

[Coast]

here comes a line of squally showers! entering south west regions! wonder if they will fizzle as they come further inland?

Fizzle I think! There was quite a bit of convective cloud out over The Channel first thing this morning but hat has now receded and the general forecasts and info don't look conducive to anything today:

UKASF

Areas Affected: None

Synopsis:

A large area of low pressure situated to the north of the UK, which contains the remnants of Hurricane Katia and of which has brought the very strong winds to many northern areas today, is forecast to remain dominant during Tuesday. A predominantly unsettled and still rather strong west or north-westerly air mass is predicted across many areas, this convective and showery in places, but with further frontal cloud and precipitation in the north.

Discussion:

The synoptic setup during Tuesday is similar to that of today (Monday) and as a result there is little or no risk of any thunderstorm activity during the day. A frontal zone is forecast to persist across Scotland through the day bringing extensive frontal cloud and further frontal precipitation which is likely to continue to bring some extremely large precipitation totals (>100mm) across western hills and mountains in particular. This frontal zone is then expected to gradually move southwards later in the day, introducing a zone of descent (EML) ahead of it which is also likely to kill off any convection and showers that develop earlier in the day.

Initially to the south of the frontal zone there is forecast to remain a very blustery west or west-northwest air flow which is expected to be unstable but not to any significant extent. Latest forecast soundings across Northern England for example do signal instability up to around 10 to 15,000ft which is enough depth to bring the risk of some moderate or heavy showers which is likely to be the case, at least for a time. However, wind shear is very strong indeed which is likely to prohibit any significant convective activity and not only that there is a forecast EML above approximately 700mb which will prohibit convection from occurring beyond this level and particularly as the afternoon progresses. As a result despite a threat of some moderate or heavy showers for a time, overall there is little or no risk of any thunderstorms

ESTOFEX have a wishy washy area over Scotland:

SkyWarn have a forecast for winds and possible tornado activity in Scotland

21st OWS have something down here:

I'm not quite sure what prompts that:

Although the KO index has a smidgen of activity off Kent:

Again, GFS from Lightning Wizard nothing to get excited about:

Moping up the remnants of Katia further North:

This is the only oddball of the day, an area highlighted over the Home Counties.......

[Chris K]

Pouring with rain here for the last 15 minutes in North Bristol. Absolute downpour on and off.

[Lynxus]

Looks like its due to pee it down here also.

Id be glad if it does, This sunshine is annoying the hell outta me through the window!

[Harry]

HURRY UP WINTER!

nooooooooo!!!

I'm getting too old now to appreciate winters (only 24 LOL)..

The best thing about winters for me is the lack of insects!

I would say that I hate winter for the lack of thunderstorms but that applies equally to Summer now it would appear

[Methuselah]

I'm sure I heard mention of the 'T'-word on LBC's forecast this morning, Harry...

[Harry]

I'm sure I heard mention of the 'T'-word on LBC's forecast this morning, Harry...

I heard Darren Bett mention the risk of thunder on R4 this morning - initially across S Wales/SW England, transferring East through the morning and early afternoon, clearing Kent/Essex by early/mid afternoon

[Andy Bown]

There were some Bristol Channel/M4 Corridor showers through the first part of this morning but now all eyes are drawn to the

active trough now stretched across East Devon, Somerset and SE Wales towards the SW Midlands.

It seems to be lasting around an hour with no big accumulations but some very heavy bursts of up to 30mm per hour within it.

I would expect that as the trough moves E/SE through the day it will encounter warmer air due to daytime heating and that may

well encourage thundery activity, however at present no lightning on the NW radar detector.

[Nick F]

Now ex-Katia has left the scene, a showery rPm flow in its wake across England and Wales. Although GFS shows little in the way of CAPE, still think there maybe some isolated thunder in showers expected to develop today across England and Wales, particularly along the trough moving east across southern and central areas which is currently across the SW to Midlands. Have done a storm forecast for today:

http://www.netweathe...convective;sess=

[Sprites]

nooooooooo!!!

I'm getting too old now to appreciate winters (only 24 LOL)..

The best thing about winters for me is the lack of insects!

I would say that I hate winter for the lack of thunderstorms but that applies equally to Summer now it would appear

november-march is often lacking in thunder inland, the best thing about winter is that Spring is next.

I do like the clear frosty days though, makes for nice photography...

[Raidan]

A few heavy bursts of rain here this morning,Nothing thundery and not expecting there to be anything either.