UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

[03jtrickey]

Trust me to miss out on the 'massive downpour'...just 14 miles away from home and it actually gets some vaguely interesting weather!

[A.J]

Just clipped the edge of the heavy showery rain pumping up through the midlands....haven't seen any lightning strikes associated with it though.....Another pulse is pushing up from the hereford area, which looks quite intense on radar....That sat24 infrared imagery doesn't look so good though, it's showing quite warm cloud tops, suggesting quite shallow clouds

[Kent Snow]

Just started to absolute hammer down. Wasn't expecting this!

[Alex95]

Torrential rain and sudden high winds here after a mild day.

[Neilsouth]

The storms triggering across the dover straights again not across the south east... Our weather has really changed, I can only remember one storm this entire year so far

[Staffordshire]

Just clipped the edge of the heavy showery rain pumping up through the midlands....haven't seen any lightning strikes associated with it though.....Another pulse is pushing up from the hereford area, which looks quite intense on radar....That sat24 infrared imagery doesn't look so good though, it's showing quite warm cloud tops, suggesting quite shallow clouds

Anything heading my way?

[Wales123098]

Wow mad storm here in talbot green, wales

[Thundery wintry showers]

Impressive shelf cloud over Cleadon and heavy rainstorm, no thunder though. These "cyclonic south-to-south westerly returning polar maritime" days are often characterised by bands of heavy showers, aligned N-S, drifting NNE and today has proved to be no exception.

[MP-R]

Yet another thunderstorm going over Cardiff, while avoiding the Bristol area. Rather tiring now. Again, fingers crossed for later.

[IanR]

Just clipped the edge of the heavy showery rain pumping up through the midlands....haven't seen any lightning strikes associated with it though.....Another pulse is pushing up from the hereford area, which looks quite intense on radar....That sat24 infrared imagery doesn't look so good though, it's showing quite warm cloud tops, suggesting quite shallow clouds

do you reckon nocturnal cooling might help

[A.J]

Anything heading my way?

Hello matey ....there's a pretty potent little just passing into Birmingham, might just clip you in Lichfield....Some nice stuff bubbling up to our South west over South Wales, which is producing a thunderstorm, this may affect us later this evening (that's providing the Breacons don't leech it of rainfall) and an area of general heavy rain approaching Cornwall...This may give us some thundery rain overnight, but will probably affect southern parts of the Midlands more....

here's a quick radar grab to illustrate (PPN is moving SW to NE)

(Image courtesy NW Extra)

[Costa Del Fal]

Just clipped the edge of the heavy showery rain pumping up through the midlands....haven't seen any lightning strikes associated with it though.....Another pulse is pushing up from the hereford area, which looks quite intense on radar....That sat24 infrared imagery doesn't look so good though, it's showing quite warm cloud tops, suggesting quite shallow clouds

A shame that as we are achieving some Intense downpours as we experienced here a couple of hours ago. NAE suggests a good shower feed through this area for much of the night. A risk of a thundery element but not a great one.

[A.J]

do you reckon nocturnal cooling might help

Hi Ian, possibly, lapse rates look quite good, and the upper air temps are low, however cloud tops don't look that high (on infrared sat)

Quick edit, those thundery showers over South Wales are showing cold cloud tops on the last infrared sat image

[Staffordshire]

Cheers buddy you ha anything? would it be worth a quick journey, if so west or east? So we could have a nice evening planned

Hello matey ....there's a pretty potent little just passing into Birmingham, might just clip you in Lichfield....Some nice stuff bubbling up to our South west over South Wales, which is producing a thunderstorm, this may affect us later this evening (that's providing the Breacons don't leech it of rainfall) and an area of general heavy rain approaching Cornwall...This may give us some thundery rain overnight, but will probably affect southern parts of the Midlands more....

here's a quick radar grab to illustrate (PPN is moving SW to NE)

(Image courtesy NW Extra)

[Costa Del Fal]

Hi Ian, possibly, lapse rates look quite good, and the upper air temps are low, however cloud tops don't look that high (on infrared sat)

Quick edit, those thundery showers over South Wales are showing cold cloud tops on the last infrared sat image

Yes the South Wales stuff looks decent with a fairly large torrential rain core with it now and some lightning. Wind vectors take it right over here or just nearby but will it hold on. Experience says no but sometimes there are instances where the showers continue for a good while longer after sunset and the NAE suggests this tonight.

There are factors that favour or get better this evening than they were today. One of these is Lapse Rates which have been around the 24/25c mark today and this evening and overnight will be around 27 maybe nearly 28c which is decent. Deep Layer and Lower Layer Shear increase this evening also. TT Index increases also tonight.

In addition, NMM Model sends some fairly weak (Upto 300 Cape and LI down to -1 or -2) but still worth mentioning, chunk of SB & ML Cape through Central regions tonight.

[A.J]

Cheers buddy you ha anything? would it be worth a quick journey, if so west or east? So we could have a nice evening planned

TBH mate, I'd stay put, the stuff over South Wales is heading straight for our neck of the woods....The cell over east Birmingham is heading up the M42 corridor and should pass just to the east of Tamworth, it's still heavy rain, but no sferics, and the rain core has decayed somewhat on the past couple of 5 min radar updates

[Staffordshire]

Okay well I'm off to eat my takeaway so I'll come back in a half hour good luck buddy!

TBH mate, I'd stay put, the stuff over South Wales is heading straight for our neck of the woods....The cell over east Birmingham is heading up the M42 corridor and should pass just to the east of Tamworth, it's still heavy rain, but no sferics, and the rain core has decayed somewhat on the past couple of 5 min radar updates

[sunny scunny]

A heavy downpour at the moment

Edit. The rain is now torrential.

Edited September 10, 2011 by sunny scunny

[Staffordshire]

I'm back is it still looking decent?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

TBH mate, I'd stay put, the stuff over South Wales is heading straight for our neck of the woods....The cell over east Birmingham is heading up the M42 corridor and should pass just to the east of Tamworth, it's still heavy rain, but no sferics, and the rain core has decayed somewhat on the past couple of 5 min radar updates

think it will miss here to the east

[sunny scunny]

Lightning aswell now and the roads are like rivers

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm back is it still looking decent?

As I expected, No. :lol: We have the heavy rain though down here.

[TonyH]

Heavy showers currently in the Lichfield area,many more on the way via the Black Country this evening. Torrential one over Brum now too.

Edited September 10, 2011 by Tonyh

[Staffordshire]

Heavy showers currently in the Lichfield area,many more on the way via Brum this evening.

Dry here at tho mo, can see the beuatiful full moon though maybe give it a few minutes

[A.J]

Heavy rain here now, no storm activity.....a case of waiting and seeing...