Christmas Weather 2011 - A White One Or Not?

[johnholmes]

finally the end of the 16 week marathon!

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 16-wed 14 dec 2011.pdf

[Coast]

Snow and heavy rain for rush-hour Britain as White Christmas odds drop

Much of Britain woke up this morning to snow and heavy rain as the odds of a white Christmas fell dramatically for major cities Newcastle, Manchester, Leeds and London. Heavy rain mixed in with some snow moved in to London, the South East, the Midlands and Wales in the early hours of today. As much as 8cm is forecast to fall in Shropshire, mid Wales and parts of the West Midlands, according to the Met Office. The Met Office said snow was likely to accumulate at low levels for a time with the risk of up to 10cm on higher ground.

There were also high winds on the south coast as stormy conditions returned to the region. The Environment Agency has issued 34 flood alerts, including in the Midlands, the North West, the South East and the South West. Now the odds of a white Christmas have shortened, with Ladbrokes offering prices of 5/2 in Newcastle, 3/1 in Manchester and Leeds and 9/2 in London, after a flurry of bets were made yesterday

Forecasters warned Britons of a brisk weekend to come. England is likely to be covered by ice on Saturday as the mercury drops below freezing overnight, with weather warnings issued across Britain over the next couple of days. Roads and pavements could be icy, especially in the evenings and mornings. Forecaster Dan Williams added: ‘Throughout the weekend, anywhere could see snow, although as it will fall as flurries, it is only expected to settle on higher ground. ‘We issued a health alert to let people know that there could be icy conditions anywhere tomorrow and Sunday morning – including paths and untreated roads, so people should take care.’ Daytimes should provide a little respite with fairly cold but sunny weather. It will be a tough problem to escape the shivers in the north, though, as temperatures are not expected to get any higher than 4C (39F).

http://www.metro.co....p#ixzz1ggmlRnWH

[Coast]

UK weather: 'Atlantic Oscillation' means there likely won't be snow for a White Christmas in 2011

Although there has been some snow around, and a good few centimetres over some high ground in the north, this December could hardly be more unlike December 2010, when snowfall was persistent and widespread, and covered almost the entire UK. The weather pattern was a very different beast 12 months ago - virtually the opposite of that we presently have. At the end of 2010 there was a "blocked" set up, with high pressure from Scandinavia to Iceland and low pressure over south-west Europe. Contrarily this year we have tended to see vigorous low pressure systems running ENE'wards south of Iceland towards Norway, with high pressure over south-west Europe and the near Atlantic.

Another way of putting it is to note that the 'Atlantic Oscillation' was negative last year and positive this year. This has left the UK in flows of winds from a generally westerly quarter during December, a little more south-westerly initially but then with some north-westerly blows which have made it notably chillier and brought those bits of snow. The weekend will feel cold with overnight frosts and wintry showers in places, mostly the northern and western UK but with a few filtering farther south and east on the north-westerly breezes. Otherwise there will be a lot of crisp sunshine. Next week it looks like we are going to see a subtle change. The jet stream is due to take a path farther north, steering low pressure systems north of the British Isles while high pressure shifts eastwards into Europe and builds. This will back the average flow more west to south-westerly again and bring rather milder air across the UK. Temperatures are likely to rise into double figures in some areas. That is not to say that it will be completely dry.

Frontal systems will drag eastwards across the country to bring occasional bands of rain but not much will get though to the south and east. We will lose the potential for the storminess that has marked certain periods during the past week. A deep low is responsible for fierce winds across France on Friday, as well some more snow over Britain, but that may be the last for a while. At a stretch we can start to take a peek at what the weather might offer us at Christmas. Temperatures may have moderated a little but there is no sign of the sort of cold and snowy festive period looked forward to by traditionalists and so beloved of greetings card designers. A White Christmas? Probably not for most of us. More likely a green one.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/12/15/uk-weather-atlantic-oscillation-means-there-likely-won-t-be-snow-for-a-white-christmas-in-2011-115875-23638046/#ixzz1ghrCfvli

[Stuart]

Thank Coast :smilz38:

[Stuart]

Update 17 makes no significant change, although it does marginally increase the chances of snow on the big day, but the general theme continues to be an unsettled one. It looks as though things may quieten down a little in the days leading up to Christmas, with the possibility of drier and milder conditions in the south. Northern and western areas are more likely to stay unsettled. Given these indicators, the Christmas forecast remains for generally unsettled weather with showers or longer spells of rain, and mostly average temperatures. It could be cold enough in the north for some wintry conditions over higher ground. Note: There is still time for a change, but the general pattern has been consistently forecast for some time.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

Update 8, 16/10/2011

Update 9, 23/10/2011

Update 10, 30/10/2011

Update 11, 06/11/2011

Update 12, 13/11/2011

Update 13, 20/11/2011

Update 14, 27/11/2011

Update 15, 04/12/2011

Update 16, 11/12/2001

Update 17, 16/12/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Stuart]

Forecast

Update 18 calls a green Christmas 2011 for most of the country. Once making the Christmas call we are very unlikely to issue further significant changes to the forecast. The weather during the days leading up to Christmas will generally be milder than it has been recently, especially in the south. On Christmas day a predominantly west or south westerly flow is expected to be covering the country with close to or slightly above average temperatures. Higher ground in northern regions could potentially see some wintry conditions, but the for most of us in Britain Christmas 2011 will be green.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

Update 8, 16/10/2011

Update 9, 23/10/2011

Update 10, 30/10/2011

Update 11, 06/11/2011

Update 12, 13/11/2011

Update 13, 20/11/2011

Update 14, 27/11/2011

Update 15, 04/12/2011

Update 16, 11/12/2001

Update 17, 16/12/2011

Update 18, 18/12/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Weather-history]

One remarkable stat is that I have seen more frozen substances either in the form of snow on the ground, falling out of the sky, frost, ice, etc since and including 2000 on Christmas Day than I have seen rain. Not had a really wet Christmas Day here since the 90s.

Edited December 19, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Coast]

Weekend blast of winter across Greater Manchester cuts odds of white Christmas

Bookies have slashed the odds on a white Christmas after large areas of Greater Manchester were blanketed in weekend snow. A massive gritting operation was taking place last night as forecasters warned drivers of further freezing temperatures. Highways bosses responded to the alert by dispatching a fleet of gritters to work through the night on region’s roads.

Now, with six days before Christmas, William Hill has revised its odds for snowfall on December 25. The bookmaker was last month offering 8-1 on a festive dusting in Manchester, but has now slashed the odds to all evens. The Met Office yesterday issued a warning to drivers to expect icy conditions until tomorrow morning. But forecaster Rebecca Sherwin said it was still too early to predict a white Christmas. She said: "The conditions are very changeable. "There will be some snow in the middle part of the week on the highest ground – but it’s too early to say what will happen next weekend."

Wintry showers led to deep snow in hill-side areas such as rural Lancashire, Tameside, and Oldham this weekend. Local authorities said their road teams had been pulling out the stops to treat roads. Officials at Oldham council said their teams were on patrol through the night, ploughing and gritting where needed. The Highways Agency said it had carried out morning and evening gritting operations across the network, including the M60, M61, and M62. There were problems yesterday when traffic on Woodhead Pass, Mottram, ground to a halt due to snowy conditions. More than 20 vehicles were stuck in the snow and had to be released by emergency service workers.

Greater Manchester Fire Brigade said it had responded to a higher-than normal number of road accidents in the region. But the snow provided winter entertainment for others. Families frolicked in Heaton Park and other parkland areas, building snowmen and playing winter games

http://menmedia.co.u...white-christmas

But then.....

White Christmas unlikely with warm air on its way

Forecasters have dashed hopes of a white Christmas as tomorrow’s warm air is set to blow away the weekend’s freezing temperatures. Sunday could be one of the warmest Christmases on record and only ­Aberdeen and Edinburgh have a high chance of a large snowfall. Temperatures dropped to -3C in some northern hilly areas while the south of England barely reached 4C during the past two days.

Met Office forecaster Michael Lawrence said: “It was cold across the board, with some places struggling to break freezing. “This week will be much milder. By Wednesday, temperatures will be in low double figures across Britain, with 13C or higher possible in places.â€

http://www.mirror.co.../#ixzz1gy6Ew6YA

and current projections are:

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Sun 25 Dec at 0am GMT

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Sun 25 Dec at 12am GMT

Dry for most, rain in Scotland

[damianslaw]

Mmm this thread looks dead in the water now the prospects of a cold white christmas have rapidly diminished. Apart from high ground in scotland the odds do look rather long..

I guess we are overdue to a mild green christmas, the last truly very mild green christmas was way back in 2002. 2006 and 2007 saw average temps even though they were green and 2003 as well.

Fingers crossed we may see a white new year.

The BBC seem very confident of no snow this christmas day - you can see the relief on their faces as I guess they are happy they do not have to try and answer the dreaded question.. indeed they are going to have a very easy ride in the next few days due to a very predictable pattern - the last 2-3 weeks have been preety tough for them due to the volatile conditions..

[SnowObsessor90]

No chance!, that's all I have to say.

Ha, this comment of mine was made in the heat of the moment and it now looks almost completely nailed on to be right!

As the saying goes you get what you say and I certainly seem to be paying for that just now

[Isolated Frost]

Christmas, when looking at the latest GFS on nw extra- seems like cloudy with some persistent rain, perhaps heavy over scotland, over the north. High 850 and 925 temps in the north should mean a mild day but with lower maxima due to cloud cover. The further south and east you are, the sunnier it seems to look, high 850's, but low 925's due to closeness to high pressure, the general theme is for cloud to miss most south-eastern parts, a day of sunshine and broken cloud likely for much of the south then.

On christmas morning, I probably would predict temperatures of 5-8c in most northern areas, especially cities, much of northern ireland, and perhaps north wales, under generally unbroken cloud with some drizzle, a higher risk of heavy rain near nw scotland and n ireland though. Temperatures around 4-6c in the midlands, south wales and the sw of england under increasing patchy cloud cover. Temperatures around 2-5c in the south and south-east of the nation with predominately clear skies, with some broken cloud possible at times, localised ground frost in some hollows/rural areas likely.

For the day itself, temperatures should be around 6-9c for most low-lying areas, with maybe 10c in some cities, but the weather should be rather different, cloud and drizzle in scotland, n ireland and parts of n england, whilst much of wales, the midlands and s england should see sunshine and some broken cloud for the day, temperatures will then fall for many southern areas under clear skies for a more widespread ground frost come boxing day morning, suggests the latest gfs output.

[Coast]

Yep, can't see anyone getting rich with a Christmas snow bet this year:

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Sun 25 Dec at 12am GMT

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Mon 26 Dec at 0am GMT

[Coast]

We think we're frustrated in the UK this year!!!!!

Dreams of a white Christmas may be all we have this year.

Western New York is on the verge of its least snowiest December and the forecast only teases a small chance that we’ll see snow by Christmas day. “A little bit, maybe,†said Aaron Reynolds, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Buffalo. “Once we get past Saturday it doesn’t look real great.†The Weather Service says there is a 40 percent chance of precipitation on Saturday and a 30 percent chance on Sunday, but with high temperatures in the upper 30s that precipitation could just as easily be rain as snow.

A white Christmas is defined as 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Historically, the odds for Western New York have been better than 50-50 for a white Christmas. Just last year, the Weather Service reported 4 inches of snow on the ground at its Cheektowaga office on Christmas day. But that was only the second time in the past six Christmases that the region saw a white Christmas. In the 14 Christmases before that, 11 had at least an inch of snow.

“For any decent snow you have to go back to 2004,†when there was 6 inches of snow on the ground on Dec. 25, Reynolds said. Christmas 2004 was the last of seven consecutive white Christmases that included 18 inches on 2001, according to Weather Service statistics. The probability of a white Christmas in Western New York is surprisingly low given Buffalo’s reputation for snow-covered winters. According to the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, there is a 62 percent probability of a white Christmas for Buffalo and a 58 percent probability for Rochester.

Pinkham Notch, N.H., tops the Center’s list of places most likely to see a white Christmas with a 95 percent probability. In New York State, Boonville, a small town popular with snowmobilers on the Tug Hill Plateau in northern New York, has the best chance of a white Christmas at 94 percent. The predictions are based on a 50-year average, but with above-normal temperatures continuing in the Northeast, Cornell Climatologist Jessica Rennells says the real odds of a snowy holiday are likely lower than historical trends would suggest.

When climate experts at Cornell made their annual predictions about the probability of a white Christmas, they noted that December is shaping up as the 12th month in a row of above-normal temperatures in the Northeast. Those temperatures have contributed to the rainy, slow start to the winter of 2011-2012, said Reynolds, the Weather Service meteorologist. Through Dec. 21, only 3 inches of snow has fallen in Buffalo and 2.1 inches in Rochester, setting up both Western New York cities for their least snowiest Decembers on record — a history that has been recorded since 1870.

The lowest pre-Christmas snow totals in Buffalo are 3.1 inches in 1998, 3.3 inches in 1931, 3.6 inches in 1896 and 4.3 inches in 1918. For Rochester, the lowest numbers are 2.6 inches in 1939, 3.7 inches in 2001, 3.8 inches in 1877 and 4.2 inches in 2006, according to Weather Service records. There is “a real chance†of snow overnight Thursday to Friday, Reynolds said. Western New York is expected to be on the north side of a low pressure system moving through Maryland and Pennsylvania.

“We could see a little snow creep into the area, but only a light amount,†Reynolds said. “It depends on how the low pressure tracks.†Even then, any snow would be short-lived, he said, though it doesn’t mean the rest of the winter will follow suit. “If you’re not a snow lover you can enjoy the fact that there’s no snow right now. But if you like to go skiing, it’s been quite a problem,†Reynolds said. There are some indications that some colder air could move in within the next two weeks, though even that may not stick around long. And significant snow isn’t on the horizon.

“The winter season is not over. We still have all of January, all of February. The lakes are not frozen so the lake effect potential is still there,†Reynolds said. “But we’re so far behind now it could be hard to make up.â€

http://thedailynewsonline.com/news/article_25e01d36-2c51-11e1-9812-001871e3ce6c.html

[Coast]

THE UK could be heading for one of the mildest Christmas Days on record.

Met Office forecasters predict temperatures are set to rise between now and December 25 – when they will hit 10 to 12C. But there are warnings for parts of the country that heavy rainfall could lead to a wet holiday for some. The mildest Christmas Day temperature on record was 15.6C, recorded in Killerton, Devon, in 1920 and in ­Edinburgh in 1896.

A Met Office spokeswoman said: “Christmas last year was very cold. This year is the complete opposite.“The normal temperature for Christmas Day is around 8C. We’re expecting it to be mild now, apart from some heavy rain at times across north western Scotland. “There could be a lot, so rather than it being a white Christmas, we could be looking at a wet Christmas. “Elsewhere, it just looks cloudy – the odd spot of rain and wind, and a fairly brisk wind from the west.â€

December 2010 broke records for cold ­temperatures. They were 5C below the long term average, with -21.3C being recorded in Altnaharra in the Scottish Highlands. There were also 23 days of frost, 13 more than average. Bookmaker William Hill has lengthened its odds on it snowing on Christmas Day. Spokesman Rupert Hill said: “It is now odds against a white Christmas.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/12/22/white-christmas-unlikely-as-forecasters-predict-mild-spell-115875-23652661/#ixzz1hFxytsLE

[Coast]

Interesting research for Scotland:

Aberdeen is the Scottish city with the best chance of having white Christmases, according to a scientist's research of Met Office statistics. Lewis-based Dr Edward Graham, of the University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI), said Christmas Day in Scotland was most likely to be mild and wet.

One year in six is likely to be white in Aberdeen, one in eight in Inverness and one in 10 in Edinburgh. For Glasgow the chances fall to one year in 12. Dr Graham also looked at weather statistics for other parts of the country. For Stornoway on the Western Isles, the chances of a white Christmas were slim - only one year in 15 - but for Lerwick on Shetland it rises to one in five.Prestwick on the Ayrshire coast could expect to see snow in less than one year in 30, according to Dr Graham's research.

However, his study pointed to Braemar in Aberdeenshire being a Scottish town with one of the best chances of a white Christmas, with the statistics suggesting one in every two years being snow covered. Climate scientist Dr Graham said: "This brings us to the question of why recent winters have been so snowy?" "The statistics do indeed confirm that recent Decembers have been snowier than the 20th Century average. "Indeed, December has been the only winter month that has 'bucked' the general warming trend. "In 1995, there was a record cold spell at Christmas, when the lowest ever air temperature recorded in Scotland -27.2°C was equalled at Altnaharra.

"December 2000 also brought cold and snowy weather between Christmas and New Year. "Two years ago, December 2009 brought much snow and ice, and of course how can we forget December 2010? It was one of the coldest and snowiest Decembers ever recorded in Scotland."This means that we have had had two white Christmases in a row in 2009 and 2010."

He said research by Prof Mike Lockwood and colleagues at the University of Reading suggested that there was a link between cold winters in Europe and "quiet" phases of the solar sunspot cycle. Dr Graham said other researchers point to a remarkable loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean, with 30 to 40% less ice during recent late summers and autumns than previously. He said: "Such a huge difference in sea-ice distribution causes more water to evaporate from the open sea surface and is sure to change the atmospheric circulation.

"Others say the increased volcanic activity of recent years has upset global weather patterns." Christmas weather has been investigated by other UHI staff.

Clive Bowman, a former researcher at the Centre for Mountain Studies UHI in Perth, was involved in a climate change project that looked weather patterns in northern Europe. Among its conclusions was an increased likelihood of snow-free "black Christmases" for the capital of Finnish Lapland by 2050. Rovaniemi is the official hometown of Santa Claus, according to its tourism body. The town in the Arctic Circle was among case studies for Clim-ATIC project led by the Centre for Mountain Studies

http://www.bbc.co.uk...slands-16244250

[damianslaw]

Well the outlook for the christmas day- boxing dayperiod is a mild lover feast thank goodness those who love cold and snow will have christmas itself to detract us from the dire prospect of a dank mild murky christmas - the synoptics make abysmal viewing in my book, long fetch southwesterlies yuk yuk yuk at anytime of year but even more so during christmas.

Alas it had to happen at some point, we have been spoilt during recent christmas for cold, snow and sunny frosty conditions, have to go back to 2002 since we were looking at such a miserable prospect.

Looking on the positive we have had lots of snow on the fells the last three weekends - I'm glad I managed to get out and about, prospects of winter walking this christmas very poor indeed.

I suppose the lack of 'cold snowy weather' will mean more time for doing other things than looking at the synoptics and being in this thread. Its going to be a very christmas this year in this respect.

[Aaron]

A muddy Christmas.. how lovely!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks dreadful oop norf, least down here should be dry, similar to Xmas 06, high pressure, dry but no frost or snow

[Paul]

Latest Xmas forecast online, including Michael Fish & his musical Christmas tie

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[ZONE 51]

Hi everyone!

Please use this thread for your own forecasts, i have used the model GFS -18z and created some charts.

-

-

Please also discuss/chat about the weather/forecasts for the 3 days - Christmas Eve/Day and Boxing Day.

Edited December 23, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

Michael Fish & his musical Christmas tie

Christmas set to be wet and warm

Those hoping for a white Christmas will have to put up with a wet and warm one instead, forecasters have said. Temperatures could reach as high as 14C (57C) on Christmas Day, not far short of the UK December 25 record of 15.6C (60F) set in 1896 at Leith near Edinburgh.

But the mildness will be accompanied by rain that could be heavy in parts of western Scotland. Following two snowy, ultra-cold Decembers, the festive season has started with temperatures as high as 12C (54F). The thermometer is set to reach similar heights tomorrow in England and Wales which will be cloudy with rain moving south, but it will be cooler and showery in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Rain will continue in northern parts of the UK on Christmas Eve, with generally fine weather in England and Wales. The high of 14C on Christmas Day is likely to be reached in Scotland, but Scots and people living in Northern Ireland will also have to contend with wet and windy conditions, with gusts of up to 60mph. It will stay generally cloudy, with some drizzle, in England and Wales on December 25 with temperatures reaching 13C. There will be similar temperatures on Boxing Day which will see Scotland and Northern Ireland having more rain, while in England and Wales it will be dry, but cloudy.

"This is likely to be one of the warmer Christmases," said Rachel Vince, a forecaster for the Press Association's weather company MeteoGroup UK. As chances of a white Christmas look slim, the betting world is focusing on whether it would be the UK's hottest Christmas, with odds set at three to one. Joe Crilly, a spokesman for William Hill bookmakers, said the odds for a white Christmas have drifted to the longest price in decades: "A couple of weeks ago it was 15 to eight in parts of the UK but now it's 16 to one in 20 different cities in England."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jiSFpp7ZJQ4Qw4DJLPUuxLfvhEdw?docId=N0599051324549240889A

[Stuart]

A Green Christmas

Mild overall

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20111223

[A Winter's Tale]

With Christmas set to be a mild one, perhaps were set for another record breaker. This thread is dedicated for discussion about how you'll cope with the mild weather, what you'll do and temperatures on the big day.

Funnily enough, although I love snow at Xmas, I'd rather have a record breaking warm one than freezing cold rain at 3C or 12C sickness. It will be slightly more interesting.

[Summer Sun]

14c in Aberdeen I think for the big day.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14C in NE England, probably around 11C here, my highest this month 13.0c on 21st