Christmas Weather 2011 - A White One Or Not?

[Coast]

Christmas temperature bets from one of the big online bookmakers:

Singles Only. Applies to records published by the Met Office (UK) and Met Eireann (Ireland).

Record for the warmest Christmas Day in England to be broken 25/1

Record for the lowest temperature in Ireland to be broken on Christmas Day 50/1

Record for the lowest temperature in England to be broken on Christmas Day 50/1

Record for the lowest temperature in Scotland to be broken on Christmas Day 50/1

Big Ben to stop due to frost on Christmas Day 100/1

River Thames to freeze over & people to ice skate on it on Christmas Day 100/1

+ the all important White Christmas odds:

London 3/1

Cardiff 6/1

Dublin 7/2

Belfast 7/2

Manchester 6/1

Glasgow 3/1

Cork 6/1

[johnholmes]

River Thames to freeze over & people to ice skate on it on Christmas Day 100/1

I would have thought that is at least 1,000/1 maybe a million to 1!!

[kold weather]

London 3-1...ouch wouldn't take those odds, you'd have to hope for either an easterly or a front coming in from the north for that to come off...amazing what a few colder months in the wintertime can do!

[Paul]

Odds are bad this year, obviously a lot of people putting bets down based on the hype surrounding the upcoming winter.

[kold weather]

The only one that would be half tempting would be Manchester, esp if we do manage to get into a NW flow at some point in December.

[Liam J]

A white Christmas would be nice although I wouldn't want loads of snow, last year half the family couldn't make it for Christmas dinner and it sort of ruined it to a certain extent.

[Weather Boy]

Eh? Why does London have the joint shortest odds? With the exception of the Irish cities (and maybe Cardiff) surely it's the least likely location?

[Stuart]

I wonder but in my dreams

http://www.youtube.c...r/WeatherSchool

Edited November 8, 2011 by Stuart

[Paul]

Latest update now online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Thanks paul it look better

[johnholmes]

week 10 of this saga!

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 10-wed 9nov 2011.pdf

[Roger J Smith]

Even back in the Little Ice Age, the Thames only froze in a few winters and in those, after New Years for a period in January and February. So that bet is borderline fraud on the betting public, I would say. Of course nowadays with so much drainage and boat traffic, there's not much chance of it freezing at any point in time.

Do they offer odds on Piers Corbyn being named Director of the Met Office?

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our twelfth update reduces the chances of Christmas snow in the north and south. The weather patterns so far during November have remained blocked, with a mild southerly flow. The mild weather looks set to continue for a while at least, and there are currently few signs of an early winter developing. The current Christmas forecast is for mostly mild to average temperatures with winds coming from the west or south west.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

Update 8, 16/10/2011

Update 9, 23/10/2011

Update 10, 30/10/2011

Update 11, 06/11/2011

Update 12, 13/11/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[keithlucky]

If you look at weatheronline the forecast is different a cold nnwest flow with wintery showers, possibility of a cold n easterly around xmas with weather fronts trying to move in from the s west ,so possible more general snow in south and west uk fingures crossed lol.

[johnholmes]

If you look at weatheronline the forecast is different a cold nnwest flow with wintery showers, possibility of a cold n easterly around xmas with weather fronts trying to move in from the s west ,so possible more general snow in south and west uk fingures crossed lol.

Having been looking in detail at the two CFS outputs for the past 11 weeks(something like 65 runs on the raw CFS and 12-15 on the anomaly CFS charts) I would put a very large question mark against any forecast for the Christmas period let alone one day in it!

[Summer Sun]

Weather Onlines CFS charts look stormy for Christmas day

http://expertcharts....122512_1200.gif

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Weather Onlines CFS charts look stormy for Christmas day

http://expertcharts....122512_1200.gif

As long as its not mild I don't really mind. In my book there is nothing worse than warm weather at Christmas time. I wonder if we will get our 3rd white christmas in a row this year? The chances are pretty low at the minute but these will no doubt change.

[Weather-history]

Looks very disturbed with this chart

http://expertcharts.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2011/11/12/basis00/euro/tmp2/11122512_1200.gif

http://expertcharts.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2011/11/12/basis00/euro/pslv/11122512_1200.gif

Struggling to remember when i saw saw a wet Christmas Day here. The last time I saw liquid preciptation on Christmas Day was probably 1999!

[johnholmes]

this is the Net Wx CFS chart for 25 December from the run on Sunday-its always one day behind the actual day of issue

the chart below is the issue on Saturday

the number of variations on the raw output from CFS, using the same 12z issue each day I check if itsi not infinite then it is very large!

I'm not sure about the anomaly charts this week. I say that as they seem incredibly similar, and seem to vary slightly over the times I've looked this week.

Paul may be able to comment. I thought they only updated 1xweekly but I've pulled 2 sometimes 3(I think) most weeks since I started checking them on a regular basis about 3 weeks or so ago.

Edited November 14, 2011 by johnholmes

[Liam J]

this is the Net Wx CFS chart for 25 December from the run on Sunday-its always one day behind the actual day of issue

I'm dreaming of a green Christmas

[Summer Sun]

I'm dreaming of a green Christmas

LOL nice one.

[stewfox]

A white Christmas would be nice although I wouldn't want loads of snow, last year half the family couldn't make it for Christmas dinner and it sort of ruined it to a certain extent.

Half the family couldn't get to mine either, made it for me more food. ps that plant died rsp

Edited November 14, 2011 by stewfox

[Isolated Frost]

Half the family couldn't get to mine either, made it for me more food. ps that plant died rsp

That picture looks fabulous, oh the depths of decembers gone by!

[stewfox]

That picture looks fabulous, oh the depths of decembers gone by!

Yes you talk to kids today and then don't believe you , when you say we use to have White Christmases . One of the warmest Novembers on record this year for example etc

Nowdays of course its all mild mild way out to F1, maye a flake by mid March ?

[johnholmes]

Yes you talk to kids today and then don't believe you , when you say we use to have White Christmases . One of the warmest Novembers on record this year for example etc

Nowdays of course its all mild mild way out to F1, maye a flake by mid March ?

a touch disappointing with all that furniture there, the sun shining, well on next doors wall, and you lot inside!