Christmas Weather 2011 - A White One Or Not?

[summer blizzard]

Its 12 weeks today to Christmas. Did anyone 12 weeks ago predict the current hot spell?

Answer: no

So any forecasts that are predicting Christmas Day weather now is twaddle, IMO.

One thing, we not had a very mild Chritsmas for a while. The last one was 2003 for this neck of the woods.

Christmas Day 2003 may have been mild but December 31st saw one of the most noteworthy snow events for me with 9cm in 6 hours from an occlusion moving W-E and the biggest snow flakes i have ever seen (the size of my fist) in light winds (Steve Murr said it was likely a high humidity level), this was then followed by snow from the north a few days later.

[Weather-history]

So any forecasts that are predicting Christmas Day weather now is twaddle, IMO.

Its like trying to catch lightning in a bottle, you could go for a very zonal December but it only takes a 2 day ridge to cross the country around the Christmas period to scupper the forecast. So how can you predict a ridge crossing the country 12 weeks out over a specific date?

You can't! Even a week out it is a struggle.

Edited October 3, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Aaron]

Its like trying to catch lightning in a bottle, you could go for a very zonal December but it only takes a 2 day ridge to cross the country around the Christmas period to scupper the forecast. So how can you predict a ridge crossing the country 12 weeks out over a specific date?

You can't! Even a week out it is a struggle.

I think TWO's Christmas forecast is just for fun, a bit like Met Check's one.

[johnholmes]

The 4th weekly issue of the raw CFS charts for Christmas Day with a more detailed look on the Tuesday issue for the winter months in the pdf below

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 4-wed 5 oct 2011.pdf

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our seventh update makes no change to the chance of Christmas snow this year. The reasoning for this is largely based on the amount of high pressure blocking which has developed in recent weeks, and is still showing signs of continuing into the middle of October. If a more unsettled theme develops during the next week, and looks like persisting through the middle part of the month the next update may increase the Xmas snow risk. So the current forecast is for rather unsettled weather with close to average temperatures, giving a risk of sleet or snow over higher ground in the north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[johnholmes]

below is the next pdf for a week of CFS charts for Christmas Day and my comments on the winter for each of those outputs-spot the similarity if you can. There are also the two CFS overall issues during the week giving another view on how that model sees the winter in these two issues.

next update due in 7 days

The text in the pdf talks of just 2 main CFS issues, there are in fact 3 which I give a summary on-again each one has a different view on winter!

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 6-wed 12 oct 2011.pdf

Edited October 12, 2011 by johnholmes

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our eighth update suggests an increased chance of Christmas snow this year. The reasoning for this is largely based on the signs of a switch to unsettled weather during the second half of October. The current forecast is for rather unsettled weather with slightly below average temperatures, giving a chance of sleet or snow in the north, and possibly more widely over high ground.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

Update 8, 16/10/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[johnholmes]

for those of you with NW Extra have a look at the set of charts issued Saturday, raw CFS issue for the 3 winter months, and also at the other CFS output if you want to wallow in cold and snow. They are both the coldest in the 7 weeks I've been running checks on this, latest will be issued on Wednesday to include my comments on the run for Saturday. Its ONE remember ONE out of 7x7 sets of charts I've looked at but it is certainly a good set of charts for the coldies and snow lovers to drool over!

[Weather-history]

Forecast

Our eighth update suggests an increased chance of Christmas snow this year. The reasoning for this is largely based on the signs of a switch to unsettled weather during the second half of October

What a load of garbage. Even if its a "fun" thread, the reasoning is twaddle.

[trisnow]

for those of you with NW Extra have a look at the set of charts issued Saturday, raw CFS issue for the 3 winter months, and also at the other CFS output if you want to wallow in cold and snow. They are both the coldest in the 7 weeks I've been running checks on this, latest will be issued on Wednesday to include my comments on the run for Saturday. Its ONE remember ONE out of 7x7 sets of charts I've looked at but it is certainly a good set of charts for the coldies and snow lovers to drool over!

That's the sort of post I want to see more often!!!

As somebody who can't really understand the charts I'm constantly looking for posts that can hint to a cold winter I'll politely ignore this part (Its ONE remember ONE out of 7x7 sets of charts) and carry on getting my hopes up.!

[DAVID SNOW]

What a load of garbage. Even if its a "fun" thread, the reasoning is twaddle.

OK Fella, we get the message.

Next you will be telling us Father Christmas is not real.

[johnholmes]

Issue No 7 for will it be a white Christmas and an overall look day by day of the raw CFS output for the winter along with adding the main CFS outputs each week as they become available.

pdf format as usual

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 7-wed 19 oct 2011.pdf

[I remember Atlantic 252]

just for fun i know, but that chart south in warm sector 12C ish? north snow on hills

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our ninth update makes no change to the chance of Christmas snow this year. The weather patterns during October have often been blocked, and there are some suggestions this indicates an increased likelihood of a cold winter, but possibly not a front loaded one. The current forecast is for rather unsettled weather with slightly below average temperatures, giving a chance of sleet or snow in the north, and possibly more widely over high ground.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

Update 8, 16/10/2011

Update 9, 23/10/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Coast]

White Christmas betting 2011 could be a very popular special market this year considering the winters the UK has had over the last two years. Christmas time provides a chance for one and all to forget about reality and a little flutter on a white Christmas is the perfect example of a random bet many may choose to snap up.

Before the last two years, winters in the United Kingdom had always brought a mass of cold weather but little in the way of the white fluffy stuff that floats out of the sky. Winters have always been something feared by many instead of something beautiful which could be savoured and embraced. Winters in the United Kingdom are not going to get any warmer meaning the current trends from 2009 and 2010 are likely to continue. The fact that winters in the United Kingdom are now so cold that temperatures plummet below zero guarantees the chance of snow each year. The trick is trying to work out if it's going to snow on Christmas Day. Predicting the weather has turned into a profession but it is a very important strategy to take on to stop money being wasted through special bets. Predicting the weather can be done in a variety of ways to ensure that a gambler can have the best possible picture of what the weather is going to be like from one day to the next.

Predicting the weather should be done in one of two main ways. The first is to utilise the internet, research and use the resources on offer. The second is to listen to the experts which means getting into a routine of turning on the news every evening and watching the forecasts for the days or week ahead.

A White Christmas

When thinking about a white Christmas and whether to bet on it snowing on Christmas Day, the best thing to do is forget about the holiday completely. Think of the day like any other and remember the context of the days leading up to December 25. The majority of betting customers will not think about the context of the days surrounding Christmas, they will have a flutter on a white Christmas in the same way they would have a flutter on the Grand National and not give it a second thought. Research and context are everything. A white Christmas is very likely in the modern climate of harsh winters in the United Kingdom. There is absolutely no reason why it should not throw down snow on December 25 like it could on December 1 or December 31.

http://www.freebetti...s-betting-2011/

[johnholmes]

The 8th issue in this series, only half of the days have data/chart with them. There were no charts available for the first 2 and I was away Friday-Monday.

Overall perhaps a slightly colder set of winter charts. A couple of instances for the coldies with high pressure fairly well north or east of the UK. In general though fairly unsettled and mobile westerly type airflows.

The other CFS output does suggest colder type weather but I've not seen any real pattern emerging yet, but confess I have not looked all that closely at this output to look for signs of such.

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 8-wed 26 oct 2011.pdf

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our tenth update reduces the chance of Christmas snow in the north and increases it in the south. The weather patterns during October have often been blocked, and there are some suggestions this indicates an increased likelihood of a cold winter, but possibly not a front loaded one. The current forecast is for a risk of colder conditions during the Christmas period, with a chance of a south easterly component in the flow.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

Update 8, 16/10/2011

Update 9, 23/10/2011

Update 10, 30/10/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[feb1991blizzard]

Definately just a bit of fun at this stage but i am a betting man and im not sure what cities those percentages apply to but my advise to anyone on who wants a bet on a white Xmas is if you can get Edinburgh at 4 to 1 or better to be a white Xmas then thats a reasonable bet, Birmingham or London i would want 7 to 1 at this range, dont bet on Manchester unless you can get upwards of 10, which you wont, infact if you can back Manchester not to be a white christmas at 1/4 then thats a good bet, this only applies RIGHT NOW, be carefull once you get near to a month away as other people will have information you dont.

[Paul]

The Santa Shaker is back - first Christmas forecast online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Liam J]

25% chance of a white Christmas

[damianslaw]

Its not until the 20th Dec we can all say with any real confidence the likelihood of a white christmas. Its good fun though seeing the updates change from one run to the next.

We have seen 2 white christmas in the last 7 years, in 2004 and 2010.

2009 wasn't a white christmas though we had a good general 5-6 inch cover.

2005 and 2006 were nice bright dry cold days with early frost.

2007 was a cloudy average temps affair from memory

2008 similiar to 2007 I seem to remember.

What is notable is how long it has been since we have seen a wet christmas day. I think 2002 was the last one. We had a run of wet windy mild christmas days between 2007-2009. But many since 2000 have been either cold and dry and sunny, or just cloudy with average temps - not complaining long may it continue.

[johnholmes]

week 9 in pdf format-less charts this week, mainly due to being away.

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 9-wed 2 nov 2011.pdf

[Roger J Smith]

My research model predicts a sequence from cold/dry to mild/wet from 23 to 27 December. That would suggest rain rather than snow although perhaps more towards Boxing Day. It also predicts the best chance for snow in December to occur around the middle of the month to the 20th. So there may be snow on the ground in some more northern or upland locations in the pattern suggested.

We'll see but my over-the-horizon call would be cloudy, 8-10 C, rain approaching, possibly quite foggy too. I wouldn't advise white Christmas bets in the UK this year. Same goes for NYC, timing appears wrong, more likely to be warmer than normal there with temperatures possibly as high as 15 C.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Its not until the 20th Dec we can all say with any real confidence the likelihood of a white christmas. Its good fun though seeing the updates change from one run to the next.

We have seen 2 white christmas in the last 7 years, in 2004 and 2010.

2009 wasn't a white christmas though we had a good general 5-6 inch cover.

2005 and 2006 were nice bright dry cold days with early frost.

2007 was a cloudy average temps affair from memory

2008 similiar to 2007 I seem to remember.

What is notable is how long it has been since we have seen a wet christmas day. I think 2002 was the last one. We had a run of wet windy mild christmas days between 2007-2009. But many since 2000 have been either cold and dry and sunny, or just cloudy with average temps - not complaining long may it continue.

yes thats a good thing, my last mild Atlantic Xmas was 03 under tropical maritime air but at least dry, 04 was white, 05-06 dry under inversion high but cloudy, 07-08 fairly average but dry, 09-10 cold with snow on the ground but dry

Xmas 00 on the archive charts looks great but there was no snow here, a green Xmas, but good snow on 28th Dec

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our eleventh update keeps the same chances of Christmas snow in the north and south. The weather patterns during October have often been blocked, and there are some suggestions this indicates an increased likelihood of a cold winter, but possibly not a front loaded one. The current forecast is for a risk of colder conditions during the Christmas period, with a chance of a south easterly component in the flow.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

Update 8, 16/10/2011

Update 9, 23/10/2011

Update 10, 30/10/2011

Update 11, 06/11/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast