Christmas Weather 2011 - A White One Or Not?

[Weather-history]

Another pathetic Express weather story. They say on the front page that a white Christmas is a sure bet, yet when you read story, the usual suspects give a % that is less than 50%. Now how can that be a sure bet?

http://www.express.c...white-Christmas

Edited December 5, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Coast]

Meanwhile, bookies have slashed the odds of a white Christmas. According to William Hill, Aberdeen is now the 5-2 favourite to see snow on Christmas day, with Edinburgh at 11-4 and Glasgow 4-1. Snow in London is looking less likely at 5-1. Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams said: "Snow on the ground is often the catalyst for a white Christmas gamble and there has been a flurry of activity in our betting shops over the weekend."

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2011/12/05/snow-and-ice-return-to-scotland-as-weathermen-warn-there-s-more-to-come-86908-23611249/

[Coast]

Another pathetic Express weather story. They say on the front page that a white Christmas is a sure bet, yet when you read story, the usual suspects give a % that is less than 50%. Now how can that be a sure bet?

http://www.express.c...white-Christmas

The Mail are on the same path:

Britain braced for a white Christmas as warm November becomes distant memory with snow and frost freezing the country

In the whole of the article they actually only mention the festive season in this small sentence:

While the Met Office said it was 'too early to tell' whether we can expect a white Christmas, bookies have now slashed the odds. Edinburgh, Glasgow and Newcastle have all been reduced in price, while London's Heathrow Airport was also cut to 11-2 from 6-1.

and this round up of bookies odds:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069801/UK-snow-Britain-braced-white-Christmas.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

[johnholmes]

is the chart that the raw CFS showed for yesterday.

Mind you the chart changes every day and rarely shows two the same. Its been like that for the 16 weeks I've looked every day at!

On that basis I would say out of, maybe 70+charts, about 7 maybe 8 have shown the 528 line over half of the country or more.

So the odds from that are?

[Coast]

So which paper do you believe? The Mail (in the article I linked to above) stated quite clearly:

While the Met Office said it was 'too early to tell' whether we can expect a white Christmas

The Telegraph say in their article:

The Met Office forecast a possible white Christmas in northern England and Scotland, with southern England at risk if a cold front is blown south.

http://www.telegraph...-Christmas.html

While in Northern Ireland.......

But John Wylie from the Met Office told UTV it doesn't necessarily follow that Northern Ireland will be in for a repeat of the last two 'big freezes'.

"There were a lot of very unique circumstances that developed over the last two winters," he explained. "Deep, deep snowfall across much of Northern Ireland - when you combine that with clear skies and light winds, that was the recipe for the exceptionally low temperatures that we had at this time last year.

"And of course, the air was coming straight off the Greenland icecap and that is not the case this time round - even in the icy conditions this morning, the air temperature was barely below zero in some places."

http://www.u.tv/News/White-Christmas-unlikely-for-NI/74124ad1-f1de-448a-81a2-a112e9a96d5a

[Heisenberg]

So which paper do you believe? The Mail (in the article I linked to above) stated quite clearly:

The Telegraph say in their article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8936008/Met-Office-predicts-possible-white-Christmas.html

Surely its hard enough forecasting 3 days ahead with the models at the moment let alone 20 odd days....I know the Met have some massive servers and machines at thier dissposal but still, it cant be set in stone at this stage...

[Coast]

Surely its hard enough forecasting 3 days ahead with the models at the moment let alone 20 odd days....I know the Met have some massive servers and machines at thier dissposal but still, it cant be set in stone at this stage...

Exactly, I am more inclined to believe the statement that the Met Office said it was 'too early to tell' whether we can expect a white Christmas

[johnholmes]

no one absolutely no one can forecast with any real confidence 20 days in advance for 1 day.

I've always said its a daft idea. Would anyone be able to predict BH Monday in August or Easter Monday 3 months or even 3 weeks in advance-of course not.

The best at about 2 weeks is a general forecast for a few days around the 25th-nothing more.

If one is able to use longer range forecast tools then an idea of above or below average temperatures, wetter or drier than average over that period is possible about 3 weeks in advance. An accuracy of maybe 50-60% at best?

Its just that folk love to hear a forecast of snow at or around Christmas-wev'e all been 'programmed' to want a white Christmas, it looks good on cards but is not much fun if you have to drive a long way in it. A holiday in the Alps at that time is a disappointment if its not white at least on the ground.

Edited December 6, 2011 by johnholmes

[Coast]

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said that a bout of severe weather before the end of year could skew economic activity in such a way that Britain does not experience two quarters of negative growth. The OBR has said that there is a one-in-three chance of six months of falling in Gross Domestic Product, and other forecasters put the probability even higher.

Sir Stephen Nickell, a member of the OBR, told MPs that disruption such as that caused by heavy snow tends to delay economic activity rather than prevent it. That would mean that if the British economy is serious disrupted in the current quarter, economic activity would be displaced to the first quarter of 2012, Sir Stephen told the Treasury Select Committee.

“If you have a huge bout of heavy snow before Christmas that will probably rule out a double-dip recession because GDP will fall in the fourth quarter and bounce back in the first quarter,†Sir Stephen said.However, he warned that disruption in the New Year would mean that the statistical masking of the slowdown could not take place. “It’s got to snow in the fourth quarter,†he said.

http://www.telegraph...-recession.html

[johnholmes]

well the last but one in this long lasting saga, even with a jh stab at Christmas week in it?

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 15-wed 7 dec 2011.pdf

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Xmas day nearly on the GFS now, just coming in to deep FI tomorrow, looks like after todays 12Z Xmas day looks like a mild sector day for all areas, Xmas Eve cold with Scottish snow

[Dorsetbred]

well the last but one in this long lasting saga, even with a jh stab at Christmas week in it?

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 15-wed 7 dec 2011.pdf

John do I sense a touch of TGIAO, after long lasting effort.

It's been a good read, but I can imagine it's taken a lot of time and energy to keep it coming.

I enjoyed it, so thanks for your time and effort, well done.

Edited December 8, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[SnowObsessor90]

No chance!, that's all I have to say.

[Mark Neal.]

Can't see a White Christmas this far South. But if we carry on the way we are going.. Scotland and Northern England might have a chance. My overall opinion is that this year will be a milder one than in recent years gone be.

[steve1971]

just being silly i think 10inch of snow on the24th then stoping at 12pm and temp faling to -20 THEN HEAVY SNOW ALL DAY ON THE 25TH,. my own prediction is a green one down here anyway could be 12c pluss .the midlands north in with a good chance of snow.just my own thought on this.think us in the south this year will be in the no snow club/the whole winter will be green down here for us.but we did ok last year.

[Mark Neal.]

just being silly i think 10inch of snow on the24th then stoping at 12pm and temp faling to -20 THEN HEAVY SNOW ALL DAY ON THE 25TH,. my own prediction is a green one down here anyway could be 12c pluss .the midlands north in with a good chance of snow.just my own thought on this.think us in the south this year will be in the no snow club/the whole winter will be green down here for us.but we did ok last year.

I think your prediction will be correct! (Sarcasm)

[johnholmes]

John do I sense a touch of TGIAO, after long lasting effort.

It's been a good read, but I can imagine it's taken a lot of time and energy to keep it coming.

I enjoyed it, so thanks for your time and effort, well done.

I THINK I understand what TGIAO and thank you for wading through it all!

and yes I have to be honest and say its a one off not to be repeated.

I did it largely to see how raw CFS and latterly the anomaly CFS charts would shape up.

I have never been anything other than highly sceptical of the raw CFS. It is not and never has been something that should be taken at face value much as run to run on GFS; use it and look for trends. After 15 weeks of it the comment must be what trends!

I'll do a more constructive summary at the end of the final week and also about the last 4 weeks or so of the anomalous CFS charts for temperature and pressure anomalies.

[Stuart]

Forecast

Christmas day is now in range of some of the medium range computer models, and the general theme continues to be an unsettled one. It looks as though things may quieten down a little in the days leading up to Christmas, with the possibility of drier conditions in the south. Northern and western areas are more likely to stay unsettled. Given these indicators, the Christmas forecast remains for generally unsettled weather with showers or longer spells of rain, and mostly average temperatures. It could be cold enough in the north for some wintry conditions over higher ground. Note: There is still time for a change, but the general pattern has been consistently forecast for some time.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 24%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

Update 5, 25/09/2011

Update 6, 01/10/2011

Update 7, 08/10/2011

Update 8, 16/10/2011

Update 9, 23/10/2011

Update 10, 30/10/2011

Update 11, 06/11/2011

Update 12, 13/11/2011

Update 13, 20/11/2011

Update 14, 27/11/2011

Update 15, 04/12/2011

Update 16, 11/12/2001

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[damianslaw]

It isn't until about the 20th before we gain confidence in what christmas day will bring - so with more than a week to go any forecast now is very speculative. However, the signals it has to be said at this range do not favour a particularly cold or widespread white christmas, but as we have seen over the last few days, northern parts could be in with a decent shot of a white christmas if we hold onto the polar NW airstream. I remember Dec 2004 which after a very mild wet period brought a cold NW flow on christmas day delivering a white christmas to these parts - conditions remained cold through boxing day but then reverted back to the mild wet conditions.

[mountain shadow]

It isn't until about the 20th before we gain confidence in what christmas day will bring - so with more than a week to go any forecast now is very speculative. However, the signals it has to be said at this range do not favour a particularly cold or widespread white christmas, but as we have seen over the last few days, northern parts could be in with a decent shot of a white christmas if we hold onto the polar NW airstream. I remember Dec 2004 which after a very mild wet period brought a cold NW flow on christmas day delivering a white christmas to these parts - conditions remained cold through boxing day but then reverted back to the mild wet conditions.

Disagree a wee bit. I would say by the 17th we will have a good idea what air mass type will be present for Christmas day and therefore will be able to have a stab at the surface conditions.

[Mark Neal.]

I also think that after this stormy period of weather, it will settle down towards Christmas. Wintry showers higher risk further north, and it is there where i think will have a better chance of a white christmas. Further south, if things settle down then i think we will have a white christmas, with Frost rather than snow!

[Paul]

Xmas forecast updated :smiliz21:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[johnholmes]

I also think that after this stormy period of weather, it will settle down towards Christmas. Wintry showers higher risk further north, and it is there where i think will have a better chance of a white christmas. Further south, if things settle down then i think we will have a white christmas, with Frost rather than snow!

you could be not far off the mark there

[damianslaw]

Yes christmas could be a frosty one if we see heights develop close/over the country next week and there are some strong hints this could happen especially for southern areas. We have seen a number of christmas days with similiar set ups - 2005 being the most recent case. 2006 also saw heights over the country and 2007 though slightly milder uppers so the frost quickly dissapated.

Going further back - high pressure has been a common theme around christmas, 2000, 2001 and 2003 all saw high pressure at some point around christmas period delivering cold frosty conditions. In 2008 we saw high pressure build just after boxing day. 1992, 1995 and 1996 also saw high pressure.

2009 and 2010 saw cold high pressure as well.

Conversely we have also seen some very wet windy christmas periods most notably in 1994, 1997, 1998 and to a lesser extent 1999. 2002 was also very unsettled.

Mmmm two themes developing most of our recent christmas have been either cold, dry and frosty with varying degrees of cold, or wet and wild and mild. We are due a wet wild mild variety but the weather doesn't play by such rules.. and I do feel the colder dry frosty scenario has equal chance of occuring based on current outlook.

[Snowstorm1]

Or dare I throw a cold falling as well as laying snowy christmas is due into the mix...