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Tuesday 6th Sept - Storms, high winds and rain

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By Backtrack
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

The wind is starting to drop here now, quite fast although there are still some strong gusts blowing through.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

is'nt the wind suppose to be calming down now? It seemed like it was and now its just got really windy again!

I don't think it's following the timetable.... whistling.gif

post-6667-0-43905100-1315315863.jpg

post-6667-0-43905100-1315315863_thumb.jp

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West Sussex Kate Contributor

West Sussex Kate

Posted
  • Location: Near Horsham, West Sussex
  • Location: Near Horsham, West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Just spoke to my Aunty, her back garden fence in worthing has blown down, including posts damaged, worthing always seems to be hit bad by these storms.

Edited by Westsussex1
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

As per convective/storm forecast for today, though slightly later than thought, line convection has formed along the cold front which can clearly be seen stretching from Dorset NE to Norfolk:

post-1052-0-69936700-1315315995_thumb.pn

strong storm-relative helicity values across England - especially towards the SE favours potential for tornadoes should strong enough bouyancy develop in ther lowest km:

post-1052-0-59234700-1315316159_thumb.pn

Netweather severe convective/storm forecast: http://www.netweathe...convective;sess=

No sferics yet from this line of very heavy rain.

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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted (edited)

As per convective/storm forecast for today, though slightly later than thought, line convection has formed along the cold front which can clearly be seen stretching from Dorset NE to Norfolk:

post-1052-0-69936700-1315315995_thumb.pn

strong storm-relative helicity values across England - especially towards the SE favours potential for tornadoes should strong enough bouyancy develop in ther lowest km:

post-1052-0-59234700-1315316159_thumb.pn

Netweather severe convective/storm forecast: http://www.netweathe...convective;sess=

No sferics yet from this line of very heavy rain.

thanks for the post Nick! i was just looking at that line wondering if there was any spherics detected in it! I'll be keeping and eye on that biggrin.png

Edited by loopydreamer
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dallas Enthusiast

dallas

Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
Posted

I see the squall line approaching the City, are there powerful gusts within?

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

At last Estofex has a forecast out!

A level 1 for the SE

.. parts of the UK, Benelux, Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden ...

As the cold front moves across the southern UK during the afternoon, a wave in the dynamic tropopause and a left jet exit dig into the region (as seen in GFS especially at PVU=1 level) and the PV anomaly gets perpendicular to the flow causing strong forcing for linear convection, with the strongest forcing over the Netherlands and Germany. 850 hPa winds of 25-30 m/s are predicted, which in case of a strongly forced convective line can cause widespread potentially damaging wind gusts. Equilibrium level temperatures are coldest over the southern North Sea, which is where the larger chance of thunder resides. EL temperatures warmer than -10°C are forecast to the south and will limit thunder chances only to the most strongly forced convection. Due to the presence of a strong jet, the 0-6 km deep layer shear is 25-40 m/s all through the level 1 area. Storm-relative flow is helical with 0-3 km SREH of 250-400 m²/s², the highest values not in the colder unstable airmass, though. Mesocyclonic storms (mini-supercells) can be isolated or embedded within the convective line. Within the level 2 area, 0-1 km low level shear ranges between 18-28 m/s which is in strong support of tornadoes and bow echoes.

GFS and mesoscale WRF models simulate convection both on the cold front and a following trough/secondary cold front. WRF Uni-Leipzig actually simulates the convective line on the postfrontal band.

http://www.estofex.org/

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

At last Estofex has a forecast out!

A level 1 for the SE

.. parts of the UK, Benelux, Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden ...

As the cold front moves across the southern UK during the afternoon, a wave in the dynamic tropopause and a left jet exit dig into the region (as seen in GFS especially at PVU=1 level) and the PV anomaly gets perpendicular to the flow causing strong forcing for linear convection, with the strongest forcing over the Netherlands and Germany. 850 hPa winds of 25-30 m/s are predicted, which in case of a strongly forced convective line can cause widespread potentially damaging wind gusts. Equilibrium level temperatures are coldest over the southern North Sea, which is where the larger chance of thunder resides. EL temperatures warmer than -10°C are forecast to the south and will limit thunder chances only to the most strongly forced convection. Due to the presence of a strong jet, the 0-6 km deep layer shear is 25-40 m/s all through the level 1 area. Storm-relative flow is helical with 0-3 km SREH of 250-400 m²/s², the highest values not in the colder unstable airmass, though. Mesocyclonic storms (mini-supercells) can be isolated or embedded within the convective line. Within the level 2 area, 0-1 km low level shear ranges between 18-28 m/s which is in strong support of tornadoes and bow echoes.

GFS and mesoscale WRF models simulate convection both on the cold front and a following trough/secondary cold front. WRF Uni-Leipzig actually simulates the convective line on the postfrontal band.

http://www.estofex.org/

Actually a level 1 for the SE, but still very interesting!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Actually a level 1 for the SE, but still very interesting!

post-6667-0-80691900-1315319317.png

Any convective proportion relating to today's little breeze (!) has been difficult to pin down and yet again, Nick F seems to be on the case early on. I'm liking the possibility as the wind starts to abate a little now.

Also worth reiterating part of yesterdays UKASF forecast for today:

The secondary risk zone is associated with the surface frontal zone as it moves across parts of Central, Southern and South-east England.I have highlighted this zone simply because of the thermodynamics evident tomorrow in association with what is likely to be quite an active frontal zone.The cold front could well be a focal point for funnel clouds and perhaps an isolated tornado as well, but it should be stressed that these situations are extremely difficult to forecast and nothing more than highlighting the risk can be achieved.

post-6667-0-80691900-1315319317_thumb.pn

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vortex_liam Rookie

vortex_liam

Posted
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/stormy
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
Posted

wow in that squall, gusts have died down in frequency but when they do they are deadly i'd say 60+ mph

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

There's also a subtle change in things even since this morning, there's a little bit more CAPE about:

cape.curr.1700lst.d2.png

and the LI has dropped a bit in the West behind the front:

Rtavn1211.png

gfs_layer_eur9.png

gfs_lapse_eur9.png

gfs_lapse2_eur9.png

I'm tempted to say a little further up country than ESTOFEX have said with the band from Merseyside across to South Yorks, but again, I am mindful of what the clever people say on the difficulty of forecasting this - even at close range!

gfs_srh_eur9.png

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Buzzard Enthusiast

Buzzard

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Continental. Dry air, storms and snow.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
Posted

Squall not too bad in NW1. Looks like Cherbourg getting a real pasting though!!

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Buzzard Enthusiast

Buzzard

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Continental. Dry air, storms and snow.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
Posted

Can't see it on my phone but probably a bit wild. Surely some flooding too looking at the radar...

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Looks pretty tame outside now.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Looks pretty tame outside now.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

The Squall is developing to your north west

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ The Squall is developing to your north west

Indeed - radar looks very impressive indeed! Some very intense echoes in a very narrow line...no sferics though that I can find. Expecting the winds to pick up suddenly in the next 5 mins or so

Edited by Harry
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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

The Squall is developing to your north west

I see.

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dallas Enthusiast

dallas

Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
Posted

Just passing through the City, mad mad rain

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
Just passing through the City, mad mad rain

Indeed - absolutely TORRENTIAL!! This could be heaviest I've ever seen it without thunder and lightning!

Just had lightning, visibility where I am is shocking! Can't see next door!

Oh have you now...seeing as this is all scooting NE'rly (in a line shunting ESE'rly) could get some of that shortly (fingers crossed) :D

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