Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Liam J]

It seems to me that there's about 65 to 70% confidence that this will hit the north and west hardest with only about a 30 to 35% risk to southern areas, but as people have said until the tracking modules show 100% confidence then nothing is certain and alot could change between now and then, I dont think we'll know for sure where and how hard this is going to land until late tommorow at the earliest.

Looking at all the data and outputs the 3 main models and even the lesser models show more or less the same track which takes the depression onshore over Western Ireland heading NE towards Scotland, I have not seen a model run yet that has tracked Katia far enough south to be of concern away from the north.

[knightrider]

Totally agree!! The above forecast posted a few posts back is how I see things going!! Forgetting about the "it could be further south" or if the jet affects it this way scenarios and just using all facts, data and model input we have in front of us, anywhere from the Midlands south will be wondering what all the fuss is about! It will be windy yes, but nothing out of the ordinary for Autumn!

Northern England may see some decent gusts, but the real wind will be reserved for the Scottish and Irish!!

Whilst the track and intensity may not be 100% certain and with the British weather anything could still happen, the above is the vastly odds on scenario, by using all model data and no "what ifs"!!

If it does track further south and affect southern England with severe gales/storm force winds them I will personally PM you all and grovel/aplogise for hours upon end! Lol!

Im pretty damn confident I won't be doing that though!

Don't forget how with the 87 storm they said it would stay over Spain and France and might just reach the channel islands then the storm dramatically changed course at the last minute! These sort of storms have a very unpredictable nature, they are a spinning top of turbulance and can go here, there, or anywhere as they please :-/ Even a slight shift south would almost certainly bring severe winds to northern England and perhaps as far south as the Midlands.

[Liam J]

The storm of 87 came at the uk from a very unusual angle of attack - South of the BI. Katia is coming at us from the Atlantic which is the normal route for autumn storm systems.

[Polar Bear]

Don't forget how with the 87 storm they said it would stay over Spain and France and might just reach the channel islands then the storm dramatically changed course at the last minute! These sort of storms have a very unpredictable nature, they are a spinning top of turbulance and can go here, there, or anywhere as they please :-/ Even a slight shift south would almost certainly bring severe winds to northern England and perhaps as far south as the Midlands.

true. Whilst I was agreeing with all the information and comments from the models; there is that. We do seem to forget that actually things can change. Having said that I do think that poor ol NI and Scotland are in for a rough old ride and wish everyone safe..

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Yes and my pet elk got stuck in a tree.

Was it drunk?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14842999

[Liam J]

Meto issued amber alert for N Ireland and SW Scotland showing how there confidence is growing in where the worst affected areas will be.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Team Jo]

WIN!

I knew The Sun wouldn't let me down..

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3805942/Hurricane-Katia-set-to-batter-Britain.html

[knightrider]

There is a yellow alert for South-West and Southern England on the BBC Weather site now!

[knightrider]

Latest forecast on BBC is very windy for all but particularly stormy in the north-west, having said that it indicates mean windspeeds in London of 25mph and only 30mph even in the extreme north so perhaps there isn't going to be a major differance between the north and south and this is going to effect pretty much all of us, dont forget hurricane's or in this case ex-hurricane's cover a huge area sometimes 500 miles across or more if that where the case with this then depending on where the centre of the low tracks it could engulf the whole of the Britain.

[chionomaniac]

WIN!

I knew The Sun wouldn't let me down..

http://www.thesun.co...er-Britain.html

Fantastic - and it only changed course yesterday from the Caribbean! How funny!

[Liam J]

Latest forecast on BBC is very windy for all but particularly stormy in the north-west, having said that it indicates mean windspeeds in London of 25mph and only 30mph even in the extreme north so perhaps there isn't going to be a major differance between the north and south and this is going to effect pretty much all of us, dont forget hurricane's or in this case ex-hurricane's cover a huge area sometimes 500 miles across or more if that where the case with this then depending on where the centre of the low tracks it could engulf the whole of the Britain.

One of the reasons why I don't bother with BBC or many other online computer generated forecasts as they tend to be way off the mark, it's laughable sometimes at how incorrect they prove to be. You will learn

Some areas up North will be seeing sustained wind speeds of 50-60mph with higher gusts.

[chionomaniac]

We still have a 10-15 mb difference between the models for lowest depths west of Scotland. I suspect that the lowest recorded reading will be circa 960mb west of Scotland. Does anyone have a link to the weather buoys in this region? Thanks

[5hort5]

Here you go: http://www.newtonandnoss.com/weather/buoys/

[Geordiesnow]

WIN!

I knew The Sun wouldn't let me down..

http://www.thesun.co...er-Britain.html

I guess the Daily Express is the next one to report on this then, can't wait too see what their headline will be.

It would be nice for the tabloid media to put the word "remnants" before the word hurricane in there headlines, I know these writers are not weather geeks like us but even they should know that this is not an hurricane, I'm all for selling papers with eye catching headlines but misleading the public is a no no in my book.

[kold weather]

There is a yellow alert for South-West and Southern England on the BBC Weather site now!

Makes sense, i'd imagine the main risk will be for just the coastal zones, anywhere inland away from maybe the far SW I'd imagine would be not too windy compared to what we've seen in the past, though for sure it'll still be a fairly gusty day.

[Liam J]

A short video from the Meto Chief forecaster Eddie Carroll with a brief explanation of approaching Katia

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/stormy-september-weather

[chionomaniac]

Here you go: http://www.newtonand.../weather/buoys/

Cheers

[Downburst]

I guess the Daily Express is the next one to report on this then, can't wait too see what their headline will be.

It would be nice for the tabloid media to put the word "remnants" before the word hurricane in there headlines, I know these writers are not weather geeks like us but even they should know that this is not an hurricane, I'm all for selling papers with eye catching headlines but misleading the public is a no no in my book.

50 ft waves - says it all there. If it's a slow news day tomorrow bet that will be 50 ft killer waves

[ZONE 51]

Lets wait until she interacts with the storm rider(jet) before deciding if the south gets just a breezy day! this is a big one as we know and nothing is 100% on tracking, the first system shown ahead of Katia a couple of days back is downgraded, this means that Kat is bigger and wider, this means widespread gales for certain across southern England, and the North well battern down the hatches even tighter!

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Just been out for a walk with the dog, beautiful evening, high wisps of cloud scudding in front of a nearly full moon, a warm gentle breeze playing through the tree tops, the odd rustle of small animals in the hedgerows, lovely. Someone just called me, apparently they'd heard there was a hurricane coming..........................

[Robbie Garrett]

Just been out for a walk with the dog, beautiful evening, high wisps of cloud scudding in front of a nearly full moon, a warm gentle breeze playing through the tree tops, the odd rustle of small animals in the hedgerows, lovely. Someone just called me, apparently they'd heard there was a hurricane coming..........................

Calm before the storm!

[ZONE 51]

Edited September 9, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Yeah, if it doesn't gust over 75 mph up here it'll raise very few eyebrows in the village

[Nick F]

i see that the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) are passing over the duty over ex- Katia (or is that passing the buck?) to the UK MetO, not often you see that mentioned:

KATIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 22C BY 12HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT TIME.HOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT WARMUNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF 40N LATITUDE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERNSEMICIRCLE...WHICH COULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION A LITTLE LONGERTHAN USUAL FOR SYSTEMS AT SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE. REGARDLESS...TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY24 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MERGED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONEDCOLD FRONT AND BE OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C. ALTHOUGH KATIA ISFORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE FORCE BY 36 HOURS...THE LARGEEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTAINSTORM-FORCE WINDS WHEN IT APPROACHES THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3 DAYS.INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN EUROPESHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UKMET OFFICE ATWWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/.

[Robbie Garrett]

i see that the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) are passing over the duty over ex- Katia (or is that passing the buck?) to the UK MetO, not often you see that mentioned:

I wonder why? Very interesting?