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Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

Robbie Garrett

By Robbie Garrett
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

check this out http://www.stormpulse.com/ and see what the models think.....! bomb.gif

Katia is still on course to cross Ireland into Scotland with pherhaps a minor adjustment to the south from previous tracking, expect minor adjustments over the next few days...

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Ladyofthestorm Aficionado

Ladyofthestorm

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
Posted

Is it my imagination or is Katia catching up the the depression in front of her?

Hmmm GFS has upgarded I see.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20110909/06/87/airpressure.png

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Probably just wind

(Sorry, couldn't resist)

Lol yeah only wind your toddler's will be aware of is whats comming out from their bums lmao :)

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Shadow Rookie

Shadow

Posted
  • Location: Lochcarron NW Scottish Highlands
  • Location: Lochcarron NW Scottish Highlands
Posted

Lol yeah only wind your toddler's will be aware of is whats comming out from their bums lmao smile.png

rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Is it my imagination or is Katia catching up the the depression in front of her?

Hmmm GFS has upgarded I see.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...airpressure.png

I'm not too sure that's Katia to be honest, looks abit too far north to me, Katia is comming up from near the Bahamas and across the central Atlantic not the north Atlantic like that low preassure is.

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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted (edited)

Is it my imagination or is Katia catching up the the depression in front of her?

Hmmm GFS has upgarded I see.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...airpressure.png

im reading it wrong! nevermind!

Edited by loopydreamer
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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

It wouldn't be a bad thing if she was catching the depression in front of her cause then she'd absorb some of the energy from the trailing end of the leading low preassure system which could make her stronger as she approaches us!

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Unfortunately with the nice weather were having today I think it's lulling the people of the UK into a false sense of security, not one person (except a jobcenter staff) would believe that by monday we'd be experiencing Hurricane-force gusts, and exceptional weather not seen for quite a long time.)

Even coming home from town there was people travelling up to the Peak District in campervans, taking camping gear and the likes. I sure hope they know whats coming by Sunday night/Monday as it won't be a pleasant experience on the exposed moorlands around here, nor infact anywhere in the North (to get out of the IMBY mindset.) Trunkroads along the pennine spine, the main M6, A74, and WestCoast line I can see easily becoming affected by this. Not to mention airports, ferries, shipping, etc etc.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

According to Peter Gibbs, it's not possible to have a hurricane on this country!! Not even the storm of 87 was a hurricane!!

And he strictly says that we will not be having a hurricane over the next few days, no matter what the windspeed!!

On iPhone so can't post link, but his blog is on BBC 23 degrees!

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
  • Author
Posted

Just got Photoshop re-installed, after having some practice at College.

What do you guys think?

This is my predictions in KNOTS. G = Gust

70dgk8.jpg

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
According to Peter Gibbs, it's not possible to have a hurricane on this country!! Not even the storm of 87 was a hurricane!! And he strictly says that we will not be having a hurricane over the next few days, no matter what the windspeed!! On iPhone so can't post link, but his blog is on BBC 23 degrees!

I don't think anybody has suggested it will be ?!?!?!?

Hurricane force winds, yes! But not a hurricane....I fear this discussion will be had many times!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Just got Photoshop re-installed, after having some practice at College.

What do you guys think?

This is my predictions in KNOTS. G = Gust

Too far South and a little too high I would guess. Maybe 35kts and more towards NI and Northern Scotland

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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted

Just got Photoshop re-installed, after having some practice at College.

What do you guys think?

This is my predictions in KNOTS. G = Gust

70dgk8.jpg

hmm! im thinking more along the lines of 80-90 gusts along some western and northern parts of the country and im hoping that we will get a few 60 gusts in the south east

I don't think anybody has suggested it will be ?!?!?!?

Hurricane force winds, yes! But not a hurricane....I fear this discussion will be had many times!

agreed :)

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

According to Peter Gibbs, it's not possible to have a hurricane on this country!! Not even the storm of 87 was a hurricane!!

And he strictly says that we will not be having a hurricane over the next few days, no matter what the windspeed!!

On iPhone so can't post link, but his blog is on BBC 23 degrees!

I'd agree with this. I used to be in the camp of 'but if the windfield says' but looking at our latitude, a Hurricane is dictated that 75mph MUST be recorded over a duration of 5 minutes within the system (and verified) by multiple sources. Our SSTs simply aren't high enough to support a system of that stature despite how warm and mild our climate may be, it's just not enough energy itself in aiding any categorised Hurricane to sustain (nevermind cross) the UK. Were the same latitude as Nova Scotia, Siberia and Alaska, way out of the birthing pools of the Hurricanes.

http://studentweb.cencol.ca/wtsang15/COMP%20213/Midterm/world-map.gif

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Lancashire Lass Explorer

Lancashire Lass

Posted
  • Location: Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snowy in winter. Hot and stormy in summer.
  • Location: Preston, Lancashire
Posted (edited)

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=4

Most of the country under METO yellow warnings on Monday apart from the South East and Midlands. Can see it being upgraded nearer the time.

Edited by Lancashire Lass
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PhilEadie Newbie

PhilEadie

Posted
  • Location: Camberley, Surrey
  • Location: Camberley, Surrey
Posted

I know this is off the subject but I have been talkin to some friends and I have notice this over the past few days our toddlers behaviour has changed they seem to be a little unsettled just wondering if they are senseing the stormy weather coming.

Dont dismiss this out of hand. I actually had a call from the pre-school about my daughters mood this morning - very clingy. However based on the below link its more likely to be the humidity than any particular clairvoyance.

http://www.childwiseresources.com/index.php?/blog/wacky_theories_of_kids_behavior

P

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Dont dismiss this out of hand. I actually had a call from the pre-school about my daughters mood this morning - very clingy.

Ant and Dec's Red or Black? does the same thing to me......

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Good to see the Daily Mail giving their usual insightful, calm and measured approach to anything weather-related:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2035394/Hurricane-Katia-hit-parts-Britain-Monday.html

Idiots.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

I hope Robbie doesn't mind, but I have used his UK image to use for my own map to show how I see the potentail effects of Katia :)

post-9615-0-55372000-1315582285_thumb.jp

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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted

I hope Robbie doesn't mind, but I have used his UK image to use for my own map to show how I see the potentail effects of Katia smile.png

yea i'd go along with that! im hoping we get a few 60 mph gusts here though

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
  • Author
Posted

I hope Robbie doesn't mind, but I have used his UK image to use for my own map to show how I see the potentail effects of Katia smile.png

It's fine, I can send you the PSD if you want it? :D I'd like to say how much the image changes over the course of the next few days, as and when she hits the jet depends on where she hits the UK, any about 1 billion more variables that we couldn't eat weekends dinner over.

I am still expecting her to hit straight across the Midlands, rather rarely.

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FetchCB Aficionado

FetchCB

Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
Posted

According to Peter Gibbs, it's not possible to have a hurricane on this country!! Not even the storm of 87 was a hurricane!!

And he strictly says that we will not be having a hurricane over the next few days, no matter what the windspeed!!

On iPhone so can't post link, but his blog is on BBC 23 degrees!

As defined by the National Hurricane Centre

Tropical Cyclone: ( of which a hurricane is a classification of)

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

By the time Katia hits our shores she will have morphed from being a Warm Core Tropical Cyclone into a Baroclinic Storm and this was the point that Peter Gibbs was making.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Peter Gibbs is spot on, though to be fair probably in the perfect set-up you CAN get a TC to the UK, or at least south England but it would take the combo of some very rare conditions for that to happen...for if you have SST's above 20C (Yes, 20C NOT 26C...and even 20C isn't an absolute min) AND cold upper temperatures aloft you can get shallow convection and a weak warm core aloft, thus in theory its possible to get a TC this far north...

Anyway this won't be a TC when it gets here,it'll be a strong low, but one with probably additional tropical moisture with it.

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