Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[the_white_stuff]

Dont dismiss this out of hand. I actually had a call from the pre-school about my daughters mood this morning - very clingy. However based on the below link its more likely to be the humidity than any particular clairvoyance.

http://www.childwise...f_kids_behavior

P

My little one has been a bit more grouchy then usual the last few days thinking about it.

[Coast]

Hurricane Katia heads for the UK

Storm warnings have been issued by the Met Office as fears grow that Hurricane Katia could hit Britain bringing gale force winds, flooding and transport chaos.

Forecasters are keeping a close eye on the tropical storm that is is expected to hit the UK on Sunday night or early next week.

Although it is unclear where the storm will hit, warnings have been issued for Scotland, Northern England, Wales, Northern Ireland and some parts of the South West. Katia, a category 1 hurricane with 90mph winds, caused seven-metre waves on the US coast before spinning across the Atlantic through the weekend. By the time it reaches the UK it is likely to have been downgraded to a former tropical storm. But this will still mean winds of up to 80mph, flooding on the coast caused by massive waves, uprooted trees and damage to buildings.

The tail end of tropical storms often hit the UK at this time of year, causing extensive damage. The mos recent Hurricanes Bill and Grace caused severe gales in 2009. However Britain’s ‘Great Storm’ 1987, which killed 18 people and uprooted 15 million trees, was not caused by a hurricane. Dan Williams, of the Met Office, said this weekend’s weather caused by a different front would be typically unsettled for autumn. He said forecasters could be keeping a close eye on Hurricane Katia to see how it will land in the UK so that weather warnings can be upgraded. “All areas could potentially see impacts of Katia, with wind gusts of 60 to 70mph and possibly up to 80mph,” he said.

“There is a risk of downed trees, structural damage and disruption to transport. “It is quite rare for us to be affected by a hurricane, and although Katia will be a post-tropical storm by the time it reaches us - it is maintaining a fair amount of its strength, which is why we have issued weather warnings. “The weekend will be wet and windy, with gusts of up to 40mph - and 50mph in Wales - but this is a different weather system from Katia, which will cause problems on Monday. “It will still be windy on Tuesday, before staring to clear on Wednesday

http://www.telegraph...for-the-UK.html

[West Sussex Kate]

Thanks for sharing that coast!

[Team Jo]

Good to see the Daily Mail giving their usual insightful, calm and measured approach to anything weather-related:

http://www.dailymail...ain-Monday.html

Idiots.

I am actually astonished The Sun haven't gotten hold of the Katia hysteria yet, usually they're all over 'deep freeze'/'heatwave'/'siberian' type stories.. ..... Cue withering 'Comedy' sensationalist headline.....

I am claiming 'there she blows'..... and at least one phrase including the word 'battered'

[Coast]

My little one has been a bit more grouchy then usual the last few days thinking about it.

[Team Jo]

My little one has been a bit more grouchy then usual the last few days thinking about it.

My Kittens are actually more destructive than usual (Didn't think it would be possible) but they always act up when the air feels funny like this, the last notable time being the near miss 'Frenchie' storm. It may not have gotten that close to us, but Smaug decided to trash my clothes airer anyway.

[Geordiesnow]

GFS 12Z has Katia marginally stronger than the previous run and perhaps just a tad further North, with the high pressure over France a bit further North, it appears to tighten the gradient even more for Scotland and with trees in full leaf, how can anyone say this just a normal Autumn storm? Not at least for early September, if it was 2 months later then yes, its interesting and newsworthy but nothing unusual.

Of course as others say, the track seems more and more predictable but its strength is far from certain although gales to severe gales does look more than likely on Monday for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England. Its a question whether the gusts will be stormforce or not.

[kold weather]

GFS 12Z has Katia marginally stronger than the previous run and perhaps just a tad further North, with the high pressure over France a bit further North, it appears to tighten the gradient even more for Scotland and with trees in full leaf, how can anyone say this just a normal Autumn storm? Not at least for early September, if it was 2 months later then yes, its interesting and newsworthy but nothing unusual.

I think thats the part that people are ignoring GS, the fact that its so early in the year and the trees are generally still close to full leaf, so getting 80-90mph winds will almost certainly cause problems.

[Nick L]

My bowels are a bit more hyperactive than normal too, must be Katia...or that kebab I had while out last night.

[Harry]

Well, I've got the mother of all stys on my face, which is clearly a result of Katia too!

She's cursing us all!!!

Edited September 9, 2011 by Harry

[knightrider]

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=4

Most of the country under METO yellow warnings on Monday apart from the South East and Midlands. Can see it being upgraded nearer the time.

Yet the last weather forecast I just watched showed it squeezing the isorbars up right across the country including the South-East, and on the local London forecast earlier on at lunchtime Peter Cockroft issued a Yellow early warning for severe winds in London.

[chionomaniac]

Yes and my pet elk got stuck in a tree.

[Geordiesnow]

I think thats the part that people are ignoring GS, the fact that its so early in the year and the trees are generally still close to full leaf, so getting 80-90mph winds will almost certainly cause problems.

And coupled with heavy rain on west facing coasts in particular in Scotland, there will be alot of uprooted trees and potential damage and then flooding becomes a concern with blocked leaves in drains and what not. The further East you are, rainfall won't be a problem due to ongraphic lift(Or something on those lines) but with the flow being a tropical maritime flow, then i suspect it will be more cloudy rather than sunny on the eastern side of the hills but we shall see on that one.

Of course, we could see something more like the UKMO is predicting and the GFS could be overegging the tightness of the isobars like it sometimes can do.

[SP1986]

Urm excuse me if I'm wrong but didn't Katrina hit New Orleans which is very highly populated? Probably more people living there then in the whole of Scotland which is mostly mountains lol This will only be sugnificant to highly populated areas if cities further south like Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, or worst case scenario London where to take a direct hit which I just cant see happening somehow!

Yes none of the cities above will take any kind of hit in this storm.. or at least it may be like a typical winter storm. All these cities are too far south, you need to be much further north.

The only cities in the UK I can see being significantly hit by this storm, are Glasgow, Belfast and perhaps Edinburgh.

Newcastle and Carlisle might have a blowy day, but further south from here, the windspeeds will probably be less than they have been in the recent windy weather,and I would go as far to say in sheltered parts of the south/southeast, there might be little or no wind at all.

Unless of course it changes forecasted track.

[Mark Bayley]

Wouldn't be surprised to see gusts exceeding 100mph across the Western Isle based on the latest run! Elsewhere gusts of 60mph to 80mph seem likely across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland with 40mph to 60mph across Northern England and parts of Wales.

[weatherobsuk]

Any agency brought up the flooding possibility yet? GFS seems to be a bit 'broke' on the expected precip rate. Given its subtropical origions and 'bombing' due to injection of moisture from the Atlantic aiding dew points within the internal system, I'd expect any frictional interaction to have exceptional rainfall rates like with most extratropical/tropical systems you see in the States.

[knightrider]

I hope Robbie doesn't mind, but I have used his UK image to use for my own map to show how I see the potentail effects of Katia

Looks about right going by the majority of the early predictions, but the latest forecast tracks the storm to move right across the Merseyside to Humberside belt and therefore the strong winds could be futher south! But judging by most modules I'd say that was a fairly accurate forecast

[kold weather]

Yet the last weather forecast I just watched showed it squeezing the isorbars up right across the country including the South-East, and on the local London forecast earlier on at lunchtime Peter Cockroft issued a Yellow early warning for severe winds in London.

To be fair it probably will be a windy day, probably will see gusts of 40-50mph but probably nothing too out of the ordinary, the big problems are well to our north.

[SP1986]

Looks about right going by the majority of the early predictions, but the latest forecast tracks the storm to move right across the Merseyside to Humberside belt and therefore the strong winds could be futher south! But judging by most modules I'd say that was a fairly accurate forecast

I don't see this anywhere? I can't see it happening anyhow, the storm is almost certain to track across NW Scotland.

I would say across central parts of England and Wales gusts of around 25-30mph (slightly more on the coasts). I cannot foresee gusts above 40-50mph south of Cumbria as it stands.

[Geordiesnow]

Wouldn't be surprised to see gusts exceeding 100mph across the Western Isle based on the latest run! Elsewhere gusts of 60mph to 80mph seem likely across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland with 40mph to 60mph across Northern England and parts of Wales.

I think I'll add an extra 10mph for your last figure there but with winds being a SW'ly, i'm not sure how much stronger the winds will be on the "lee" of the Pennines/Highlands. Normally an Westerly-WNW'ly would deliver strong gusts because as people around here would know, in winter time, you can have crystal blue skies but its very very windy. I seem to recall a time when a strong low was forecast but whilst it was windy around here, it was not all that gusty and I thought when will these winds increase more and they only did once the wind direction changed more to a Westerly due to complex reasons with being on the eastern side of the Pennines(As you can tell, I'm not knowledgeable to know that stuff sadly).

The central belt could be the windiest spot in terms of the higher density areas I feel. I'll guess at this moment in time either Glasgow or Edinburgh will recieve the strongest gusts.

[Team Jo]

Just had Met Office Yellow warning email...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?from=rss&sn=EC94F6CA-8280-3EEF-5B86-4D7E95C67E7F_3_SE

[knightrider]

I don't see this anywhere? I can't see it happening anyhow, the storm is almost certain to track across NW Scotland.

I would say across central parts of England and Wales gusts of around 25-30mph (slightly more on the coasts). I cannot foresee gusts above 40-50mph south of Cumbria as it stands.

I think you might want to look at the next BBC national forecast mate, southern areas are still going to get gale-force gusts at the minimum (40mph upwards).

[glasgow-guy]

met office now showing amber alerts

Edited September 9, 2011 by glasgow-guy

[Mark Bayley]

<snip>

The central belt could be the windiest spot in terms of the higher density areas I feel. I'll guess at this moment in time either Glasgow or Edinburgh will recieve the strongest gusts.

Yes, these cities will certainly bare the brunt of this storm. As others have been saying its the time of year that's increasing the severity of this storm. Most trees are still in full leaf, I suspect a number could be brought down. For my end, Sheffield, it will just be a very windy day.

[kold weather]

I don't see this anywhere? I can't see it happening anyhow, the storm is almost certain to track across NW Scotland.

I would say across central parts of England and Wales gusts of around 25-30mph (slightly more on the coasts). I cannot foresee gusts above 40-50mph south of Cumbria as it stands.

I'd not feel too confident about the eact track, these systems are pretty fluid and I've seen countless systems that turn extra-tropical and don't track how they are forecasted, plenty of time for easily a 100 mile shift either way...

As for the winds, I think your underplaying them, I think if you add a solid 10-15mph onto that range then you'll be closer, indeed the channel coasts IMO will see your 40-50mph range and probably a little higher.