Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[kold weather]

Yeah that is pretty unusual Nick, I've seen the NHC transfer to the HPC once a landfalling system is inland in the states but its pretty uncommon for them to point out the UKMO, though i suppose it has happened before (probably Lisa 2004 was one such system...)

[ZONE 51]

Im starting to wonder about this, there is something not quite your normal situation, well its not and its rare and its a concern, this is something we dont get this time of the year or its very rare to happen in the later part of the season, i say this post in these words because i think this is one big storm that is serious and is worrying the hardest areas of forecasting centers!

[ZONE 51]

look at this another one shown by GFS end of next wk/wkend!

Edited September 9, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Nick F]

Appears to be little change in track of the extratropical storm on the 18z, northern EIRE, northern and western Scotland still in for a battering.

[Staffordshire]

look at this another one shown by GFS end of next wk/wkend!

That isn't heading anywhere near us...

[Eskimo]

That isn't heading anywhere near us...

Definitely not, it's hitting Iceland or even Greenland!

[Robbie Garrett]

Still playing about with Photoshop, Possible regions affected is one thing for certain, just where she really does track into that area, exciting guesswork coming up over the next 72hrs. Isn't she a beaut?

Edited September 9, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Liam J]

GFS 18z shows the same track as the 12z with a slight downgrade in wind speeds and not as deep but I'm only talking about 3mb. There will be more fluctuations in intensity until the models get a good handle on Katia in the next 48 hours and after she has made the transition into an extra tropical depression.

[Eskimo]

This will be something I have never seen in my lifetime, quite remarkable for me.

[Robbie Garrett]

GFS 18z shows the same track as the 12z with a slight downgrade in wind speeds and not as deep but I'm only talking about 3mb. There will be more fluctuations in intensity until the models get a good handle on Katia in the next 48 hours and after she has made the transition into an extra tropical depression.

Two things I take can happen in this process?

[kold weather]

That 2nd low on the 18z GFS would be the remains of Maria I'd have thought.

[Jack Wales]

i see that the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) are passing over the duty over ex- Katia (or is that passing the buck?) to the UK MetO, not often you see that mentioned:

After extra tropical transition takes place it's no longer under the remit of the NHC to continue public advisories. However they have mentioned the UK in their last few advisories and to me the fact the have singled out the UK Met could mean one of two things...

1, The two bodies have liaised and agreed a warm handover for advisories / weather warnings for Katia.

2, The NHC are concerned at the preperation (or lack of) by the UK Met and authorities so thought they would prod them a little.

Either way, in the most recent NHC advisory, they are forecasting 'sustained' winds of between 65-70mph which is just under hurricane strength. I fear that even for Northern Scotland this could be damaging as gusts at higher altitues will almost certainly exceed 100mph.

Definitely not, it's hitting Iceland or even Greenland!

That's Maria and it's way too far ahead to see what track she will take. At the moment she is struggling to retain tropical storm status.

[mountain shadow]

If it does turn out to be a serious storm, no one can say they weren,t warned.

I'm going for a peak gust of 110mph in the Outer Hebridies and plenty of trees down.

[Liam J]

Two things I take can happen in this process?

I think the track is pretty much nailed with such cross model agreement at present BUT we cannot rule out a change in the final approach of the storm be it slightly north or south, not by much I wouldn'y have thought.

By tomorrow we should have a clearer picture of Katia, she will be well into if not completed her transition and be riding towards the UK very fast on the Jet stream.

[ZONE 51]

That isn't heading anywhere near us...

i know its going around the high, but was making a point that another one is in the north atlantic(or could be if it goes as the run shows)and this in september mid. anyway no more on that!

[Liam J]

Nothing to severe south of the Scottish border Imo, N Ireland and much of Scotland getting hammered.

[Downburst]

There will be severe floods in some areas in very sharp and heavy showers in the UK and Ireland. Note the GFS model will not show this yet. The algorithm on this computer model doesn't compute this due to the particualr complexity involved in this type of event. But I am certain of flash floods from heavy ex tropical rain. nearly everywhere will see beautiful heavy and dense rain drops, probably lasting 45 mins to 1 hour as a front moves overhead on Monday afternoon. Get cameras ready

[TEITS]

I really do fear the worst for our members in Scotland, N Ireland. The main reason being isn't just the strength of the wind but the timing. If this storm had occured in October or November when the trees are bare the impact would of been much less. I remember when many trees fell in Peterborough during the tornado of July 2005 and wind speeds were around 70-80mph.

If nothing changes in the model output then I hope everyone remains indoors and doesn't underestimate this storm.

For my region I don't think this will be even noticeable and will be a good day to peg the washing out. Im glad because I wouldn't want this storm to change track!

[peterf]

i agree TEITS,the timing of this storm is not good at all.

[Aaron]

I would pay good money for this to move further south!

[West Sussex Kate]

[peterf]

SHE'S A BIGUN

[West Sussex Kate]

[Cymro]

I would pay good money for this to move further south!

Why would you pay for a potential dangerous storm, that could cause structural damage and endanger people to move closer to your home :S this isn't a pretty little chart we can all hope for some action on, and for once we ought to take these warnings pretty serious. It may be the case that it weakens greatly has it passes across the atlantic, and there is no guarantee it will make it here or not, look at what she did in the North East of America, nothing is nailed yet it's far to early to tell, once it hits cooler waters and then get's the warm plume of air, such instability could cause anything to happen, hence the met being cautious.

[West Sussex Kate]

Some bad news already coming in.... http://www.chron.com/news/article/Man-swept-from-rocks-by-Katia-wave-off-Maine-coast-2163422.php