Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[kold weather]

I'll go for 113mph as the highest wind, somewhere in W.Scotland, no point in trying to predict exactly!

[loopydreamer]

Its ok have you seen how the isobars tighten after 3 glasses of red wine! lol

[knightrider]

Highest gust in London a whooping 5mph lol Knowing our luck..

[Beasterly]

Highest gust in London a whooping 5mph lol Knowing our luck..

That's too high for london to be honest..

[loopydreamer]

Yep, the exact track is still open to some slight adjustments, though to be fair once its fully interacted with the jet stream the speed will pick up alot and the likelyhood of any major error starts to go down quite quickly.

can someone tell me roughly when it will be interacting with the jet stream?

[knightrider]

That's too high for london to be honest..

LOL I hope that was sarcasm. I'd be very dissapointed if we dont see at least 40mph anything over that I will take as pretty good going for us!

[tinybill]

I'm surprised there's no guess the maximum sustained wind speed and gust competition yet...

do we do what our people over the pond do leave town when they get a storm!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/..So the arrows are the "mean" wind speed..X 2 that is the gusts apparently...Well Scotland..Good luck :/

[Geordiesnow]

The blue arrows are normal wind speeds whereever you see red arrows at a station, it indicates a gust has passed through, so expect too see alot of red arrows on Monday!

The ECM has the low weaker than the GFS does on its approach to the UK thus not as strong as it hits the UK but some strong gusts are still expected, perhaps not the stormforce gusts that might happen if the GFS output occurs.

Even the UKMO has now joined in of a deep low so its bound to happen, as I said earlier, it will be a question whether the gusts will be stormforce or will it be touching severe gales instead.

[Liam J]

Here is a look at the 12z runs from the GFS, ECM, UKMO and the GEM - variations in depth which will affect where and how strong the winds will be.

GFS has moved the strongest winds further north on this run away from parts of N England, not nailed but pretty much near the final track imo, Katia still has to interact with the jet stream and travel 1000's miles yet to get here.

[Thundery wintry showers]

My guess is that the Tyne and Wear area will get to 65mph gusts with sustained speeds of 50mph, and that the highest gust will be about 95mph in the Hebrides with sustained speeds of 70mph. Those are only guesses, but I think although the track of the low is open to question, there is strong cross-model agreement on the intensity of the winds. It's quite unusual to be seeing such a deep low this early in the season but I don't think it will exceed what we had on, say, the 11th November 2010.

[cyclonic happiness]

I just hope it drops at least some rain, all of the past months depressions have failed to bring anything in the way of rain to these parts, which is still very much in drought conditions with some trees bare due to extreme stress from the dryness :-(

[knightrider]

The blue arrows are normal wind speeds whereever you see red arrows at a station, it indicates a gust has passed through, so expect too see alot of red arrows on Monday!

The ECM has the low weaker than the GFS does on its approach to the UK thus not as strong as it hits the UK but some strong gusts are still expected, perhaps not the stormforce gusts that might happen if the GFS output occurs.

Even the UKMO has now joined in of a deep low so its bound to happen, as I said earlier, it will be a question whether the gusts will be stormforce or will it be touching severe gales instead.

Well judging by what Peter Cockroft BBC forecaster for London said on the evening news bulletin I would imagine storm force up north and gale to severe gale force even in the south because he said quote "Monday will be unusually windy and could effect the journey back to work!" You know when they use words like "unusual" and quotes like what Sky weather used "Incredibly windy!" that it's going to be a fairly big event.

[Liam J]

In depth warning from BECO, up to 90mph in parts of Scotland but nothing unusual south of the border according to them, 60-70mph in NW England nothing to write home about, may be the odd branch snapped off.

BECO have issued:

GALE STORM WARNING (GSW)

For : MON 12th and TUE 13th

Click images for larger view.

Detail :

This depression is likely to shift far north across Scotland engulfing most far Western and Mid Western Isles like SKYE, MULL AND surrounding areas. Generally winds of 40-60mph with isolated periods of strong gusts upto 90mph are possible in exposed areas in the far North as shown. Areas below and to the west like Cumbria, Lancashire, N Wales and N Ireland are expected to get 60mph gusts with the possible odd 70mph. South East and East Counties will not see major gusts. Ex Hurricane Katia is expected to bring 'Storm Force' conditions to some parts of the north UK as from Monday into Weds AM causing power disruption, travel problems and damage to buildings. As alot of trees are in part or full leaf they will act as a sail on a boat and take the full force of the major gusts expected thus breaking and falling to the ground for example.

In depth warning from BECO, up to 90mph in parts of Scotland but nothing unusual south of the border according to them, 60-70mph in NW England nothing to write home about, may be the odd branch snapped off.

http://www.beco.org.uk/

BECO have issued:

GALE STORM WARNING (GSW)

For : MON 12th and TUE 13th

Click images for larger view.

Detail :

This depression is likely to shift far north across Scotland engulfing most far Western and Mid Western Isles like SKYE, MULL AND surrounding areas. Generally winds of 40-60mph with isolated periods of strong gusts upto 90mph are possible in exposed areas in the far North as shown. Areas below and to the west like Cumbria, Lancashire, N Wales and N Ireland are expected to get 60mph gusts with the possible odd 70mph. South East and East Counties will not see major gusts. Ex Hurricane Katia is expected to bring 'Storm Force' conditions to some parts of the north UK as from Monday into Weds AM causing power disruption, travel problems and damage to buildings. As alot of trees are in part or full leaf they will act as a sail on a boat and take the full force of the major gusts expected thus breaking and falling to the ground for example.

[peterf]

My guess is that the Tyne and Wear area will get to 65mph gusts with sustained speeds of 50mph, and that the highest gust will be about 95mph in the Hebrides with sustained speeds of 70mph. Those are only guesses, but I think although the track of the low is open to question, there is strong cross-model agreement on the intensity of the winds. It's quite unusual to be seeing such a deep low this early in the season but I don't think it will exceed what we had on, say, the 11th November 2010.

think i might get a tad stronger than that up here Ian.busy day ahead tomorrow securing everything down just to be on the safe side.we have no protection whatsoever from westerlies once they whistle over the pennines.

[Shadow]

Oh great really looking forward to this storm (not) Hubby is worried about his hovercraft that is going to be really exposed to the wind. Not a lot we can do about it except for see what happens when and if it happens.

[West Sussex Kate]

My aunty did have some damage after the storm which passed through earlier this week! Shes just paid £300 to fix it, shes hoping that Katia goes north!

[knightrider]

In depth warning from BECO, up to 90mph in parts of Scotland but nothing unusual south of the border according to them, 60-70mph in NW England nothing to write home about, may be the odd branch snapped off.

BECO have issued:

GALE STORM WARNING (GSW)

For : MON 12th and TUE 13th

Click images for larger view.

Detail :

This depression is likely to shift far north across Scotland engulfing most far Western and Mid Western Isles like SKYE, MULL AND surrounding areas. Generally winds of 40-60mph with isolated periods of strong gusts upto 90mph are possible in exposed areas in the far North as shown. Areas below and to the west like Cumbria, Lancashire, N Wales and N Ireland are expected to get 60mph gusts with the possible odd 70mph. South East and East Counties will not see major gusts. Ex Hurricane Katia is expected to bring 'Storm Force' conditions to some parts of the north UK as from Monday into Weds AM causing power disruption, travel problems and damage to buildings. As alot of trees are in part or full leaf they will act as a sail on a boat and take the full force of the major gusts expected thus breaking and falling to the ground for example.

I think your writing off high winds here in the south far too early IMO. Sunday is looking fairly blowy down here then local forecasters have hinted that things will really start to build up on Sunday night into Monday morning making commuting to work pottencially very difficult.

[TEITS]

Well judging by what Peter Cockroft BBC forecaster for London said on the evening news bulletin I would imagine storm force up north and gale to severe gale force even in the south because he said quote "Monday will be unusually windy and could effect the journey back to work!" You know when they use words like "unusual" and quotes like what Sky weather used "Incredibly windy!" that it's going to be a fairly big event.

From the model output I have seen I very much doubt the S will be impacted by this. The same cannot be said for Scotland and maybe N parts of N England.

[NickR]

think i might get a tad stronger than that up here Ian.busy day ahead tomorrow securing everything down just to be on the safe side.we have no protection whatsoever from westerlies once they whistle over the pennines.

Hoping we don't get too badly hit in Durham City... I don't think we're nearly as exposed you guys up there.

I'm due to travel to Cardiff by train on MOnday pm, so hoping there won'tn be too many trees down on the line.

[Liam J]

I think your writing off high winds here in the south far too early IMO. Sunday is looking fairly blowy down here then local forecasters have hinted that things will really start to build up on Sunday night into Monday morning making commuting to work pottencially very difficult.

That was quoted from BECO on there warnings page I myself have not written off anything and also model outputs continue to show Northern Britain with the severe winds.

There will have to be a major alteration in the outputs and track of Katia now to put Southern England in line for disruptive winds.

[knightrider]

That was quoted from BECO on there warnings page I myself have not written off anything and also model outputs continue to show Northern Britain with the severe winds.

There will have to be a major alteration in the outputs and track of Katia now to put Southern England in line for disruptive winds.

It seems to me that there's about 65 to 70% confidence that this will hit the north and west hardest with only about a 30 to 35% risk to southern areas, but as people have said until the tracking modules show 100% confidence then nothing is certain and alot could change between now and then, I dont think we'll know for sure where and how hard this is going to land until late tommorow at the earliest.

[AWD]

From the model output I have seen I very much doubt the S will be impacted by this. The same cannot be said for Scotland and maybe N parts of N England.

Totally agree!! The above forecast posted a few posts back is how I see things going!! Forgetting about the "it could be further south" or if the jet affects it this way scenarios and just using all facts, data and model input we have in front of us, anywhere from the Midlands south will be wondering what all the fuss is about! It will be windy yes, but nothing out of the ordinary for Autumn!

Northern England may see some decent gusts, but the real wind will be reserved for the Scottish and Irish!!

Whilst the track and intensity may not be 100% certain and with the British weather anything could still happen, the above is the vastly odds on scenario, by using all model data and no "what ifs"!!

If it does track further south and affect southern England with severe gales/storm force winds them I will personally PM you all and grovel/aplogise for hours upon end! Lol!

Im pretty damn confident I won't be doing that though!

[Kiwi]

That was quoted from BECO on there warnings page I myself have not written off anything and also model outputs continue to show Northern Britain with the severe winds.

There will have to be a major alteration in the outputs and track of Katia now to put Southern England in line for disruptive winds.

It doesn't take much!

Please remember we're a soft lot down here in the south .....not like you northern roughy toughies.

[loopydreamer]

Totally agree!! The above forecast posted a few posts back is how I see things going!! Forgetting about the "it could be further south" or if the jet affects it this way scenarios and just using all facts, data and model input we have in front of us, anywhere from the Midlands south will be wondering what all the fuss is about! It will be windy yes, but nothing out of the ordinary for Autumn!

Northern England may see some decent gusts, but the real wind will be reserved for the Scottish and Irish!!

Whilst the track and intensity may not be 100% certain and with the British weather anything could still happen, the above is the vastly odds on scenario, by using all model data and no "what ifs"!!

If it does track further south and affect southern England with severe gales/storm force winds them I will personally PM you all and grovel/aplogise for hours upon end! Lol!

Im pretty damn confident I won't be doing that though!

unfortunetly i dont think you will either