Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[Lauren]

So the SE looks to escape then?

[weatherobsuk]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/dg_forecast_warnings.html

The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to come across the UK on Monday bringing a spell of very windy weather. There remains some uncertainty about its track and intensity, though with increasing indications that Scotland and Northern Ireland are most likely to bear the brunt the warning has been upgraded to amber here. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures.

[Chris D]

I don't see this anywhere? I can't see it happening anyhow, the storm is almost certain to track across NW Scotland.

I would say across central parts of England and Wales gusts of around 25-30mph (slightly more on the coasts). I cannot foresee gusts above 40-50mph south of Cumbria as it stands.

More like 60-70mph across coastal NW England and N Wales, at least.

Edited September 9, 2011 by chris93

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Someone mentioned new Orleans having a bigger population than Scotland earlier.

New Orleans city pop: 323,000

Metro: 1.2 million

Glasgow city: 620,000

Metro: 1.2 million.

Fair enough this is no hurricane katrina but these winds do appear likely to crash right through quite a densely populated area, notwithstanding the rest of the central belt. Scotland is not just a load of mountains. Glasgow is actually bigger than most cities in England.

[kold weather]

More like 60-70mph across coastal NW England and N Wales, at least.

Agreed, esp over Cumbria which obviously has alot of higher ground so that range seems reasonable.

[knightrider]

So the SE looks to escape then?

Mostly escape as things stand, but we'll still feel it's outer effects. There's a video on the Met Office website about tracking it's progress across the Atlantic and how their still not 100% confident about where the strongest winds will be, it could all change. Apparently the south-west has been issued warnings so I dont see why if that's the case that the strong winds wouldn't sweep east down the channel and across in south-eastern areas, that would sound a logical direction for the severe winds to go!

[SP1986]

Ive tracked many big storms of which the centre move over Scotland, and usually in central England the result is usually roughly 30mph winds. I'm basing on previous storms, it can be much more on coasts.

But the point is, if you live in Oxford for example, don't be expecting 50-70mph gusts.

But as said above it depends on the track... I will have to watch the latest forecast as suggested above.. definitely open to the fact this evolving all the time.

[glasgow-guy]

now that the met office has issued its amber warnings I am just waiting too see now if there will be a red alert issued or not

[Mark Bayley]

Here's the UKMO and GFS T72 charts, both generally agree on the track, with the UKMO tracking slightly further south. The strongest winds on both the UKMO and GFS are across Scotland and Northern Ireland. I suppose my earlier post could apply to both "Wouldn't be surprised to see gusts exceeding 100mph across the Western Isle based on the latest run! Elsewhere gusts of 60mph to 80mph seem likely across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland with 40mph to 60mph across Northern England and parts of Wales".

Although unlikely, the GEM 0z (Canadian model) is interesting, tracking the low across central Scotland, with stronger winds further south.

Edited September 9, 2011 by Mark Bayley

[knightrider]

Ive tracked many big storms of which the centre move over Scotland, and usually in central England the result is usually roughly 30mph winds. I'm basing on previous storms, it can be much more on coasts.

But the point is, if you live in Oxford for example, don't be expecting 50-70mph gusts.

But as said above it depends on the track... I will have to watch the latest forecast as suggested above.. definitely open to the fact this evolving all the time.

The current map and the isorbars suggest that winds of over 50mph are possible in places like Oxford, maybe 70mph is abit extreme but 50-60mph certainly isn't out of the question even if it stays on it's current track.

[SnowBear]

Guys, storms like this you wont nail down track until pretty much inside 24 hours, having followed and tracked storms of this nature for some time on this forum with some very knowledgeable folks here I came to understand never underestimate what or where these storms will go ;-)

With the storm being still so far out, even a 5-10 mile shift in its track now can mean a far larger variation in targets in the days to come. Also with this the power of these storms means they do not always interact with the surrounding systems and fronts as would always be expected.

I personally would say just watch and wait :-)

[knightrider]

Guys, storms like this you wont nail down track until pretty much inside 24 hours, having followed and tracked storms of this nature for some time on this forum with some very knowledgeable folks here I came to understand never underestimate what or where these storms will go ;-)

With the storm being still so far out, even a 5-10 mile shift in its track now can mean a far larger variation in targets in the days to come. Also with this the power of these storms means they do not always interact with the surrounding systems and fronts as would always be expected.

I personally would say just watch and wait :-)

Couldn't agree with you more SnowBear, and the guy on the Met Office said they've only issued warnings for the north and west of the UK to cover the possibility of this taking a more southern track which is why they have highlighted the south-west approaches but not the south-eastern quarter of the UK, but if it was to make a direct hit on the south-west I have little doubt that it would track east across into the south-east aswell. There's still alot of speculation to be had as to exactly where, when, and how strong this storm will hit.

[kold weather]

Yeah still plenty of room for track shift, given the system is still a good couple of thousand miles away would only need a track shift of say 1-2 degrees more south or north of where the models expect to get a fairly decent shift in the exact track.

[knightrider]

Yeah still plenty of room for track shift, given the system is still a good couple of thousand miles away would only need a track shift of say 1-2 degrees more south or north of where the models expect to get a fairly decent shift in the exact track.

Exactly a couple of degree shift to the north would probably mean it missis the British mainland all together only effecting perhaps the far north of Scotland and the Faroe Islands at the most. A few degrees shift southwards would see it right acroos the middle of the country bringing the strongest winds to the southern half of England, Wales and Ireland. So it's anyone's guess at the moment, I'd like to think the Met will be far more confident about its path and intensity by this time tommorow baring in mind by then we'll be just over 24 hours away from it breathing up towards the west Irish coast.

[Paul]

Thought this may be of interest - a quick animation of katia and how the 12z shows it interacting with the jetstream:

[Robbie Garrett]

Talking about couple of degrees out, http://www.pilotfriend.com/training/flight_training/nav/track%20error2.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1_in_60_rule

So over 60nm if Katia's one degree out, it's 1nm south/north of where it would be in trackwise. There's 50 x 60 to go (3000nm)

[chionomaniac]

Thought this may be of interest - a quick animation of katia and how the 12z shows it interacting with the jetstream:

Brilliant, Paul. It shows Katia re-intensifying nicely in the left exit region.

[03jtrickey]

I'm surprised there's no guess the maximum sustained wind speed and gust competition yet...

[knightrider]

I'm surprised there's no guess the maximum sustained wind speed and gust competition yet...

Judging by that graphic a couple of posts back somewhere across the far north of England could see the highest winds, I'm going to stick my neck out and say highest sustained speed approx 80mph with highest gust somewhere in the 100-110mph region.

[Teesdale]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

Slightly deeper than 00 run.

[kold weather]

Talking about couple of degrees out, http://www.pilotfrie...ck%20error2.htm

http://en.wikipedia....ki/1_in_60_rule

So over 60nm if Katia's one degree out, it's 1nm south/north of where it would be in trackwise. There's 50 x 60 to go (3000nm)

Yep, the exact track is still open to some slight adjustments, though to be fair once its fully interacted with the jet stream the speed will pick up alot and the likelyhood of any major error starts to go down quite quickly.

[Ladyofthestorm]

im reading it wrong! nevermind!

Its ok have you seen how the isobars tighten after 3 glasses of red wine! lol

[peterf]

i dont like the look of that.

[Ladyofthestorm]

I'm surprised there's no guess the maximum sustained wind speed and gust competition yet...

Fanastic idea!

me first!!!!!!!

Tiree 106mph gust...

[loopydreamer]

well thanku for answering the question i was just about to ask! lol! can u read minds or somthin? creepy