Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread

[knightrider]

Issued at - 09 Sep 2011, 11:24

Valid from - 12 Sep 2011, 00:00

Valid to - 12 Sep 2011, 23:59

The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to come across the UK on Monday bringing a spell of very windy weather. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty about its track and intensity, and warning areas may be extended or upgraded to amber in subsequent issues, but the best estimate currently is that northern and western parts of the UK are most at risk from very strong winds. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures.

The public are advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html

warnings hinted by Metoffice for South east on Monday

Great news, hope some truth comes of it.

[Paul]

Nick has updated our daily Katia article:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=798;sess=

This is the latest forecast track for Katia (GFS)

And finally, we have a UK wide weather watch online as of earlier this morning:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerthome

[kold weather]

I'm not worried about here, certainly for line south of the border, it will 'just' be a windy day, nothing we havent seen before.. for Scotland it's a little different, Glasgow might be hit fairly hard.

If it tracks as predicted though, it's just going to be another storm, nothing unusual I suspect.

Yeah I think that sounds reasonable.

Scotland does need to really watch it, esp the western islands and the western coast of mainland Scotland. I'd stay well clear of the mountions, will probably see 100-110kts gusts up there which is very severe and dangerous, lower level winds probably 85-95kts gusts locally, though 70-80kts seems more reasonable for most, which is still very severe...

I agree.

I think people are getting carried away because this storm was originally a hurricane. When it gets here it will no longer be a Hurricane and to my mind will be a fairly bog standard autumn storm.

Quite possibly, but to be fair it is still going to be a very strong system, especially for the time of year. I'd say it probably will be one of the strongest storms we will see this Autumn/winter and for it to happen in early September is quite impressive.

[P-M]

Yeah I think that sounds reasonable.

Scotland does need to really watch it, esp the western islands and the western coast of mainland Scotland. I'd stay well clear of the mountions, will probably see 100-110kts gusts up there which is very severe and dangerous, lower level winds probably 85-95kts gusts locally, though 70-80kts seems more reasonable for most, which is still very severe...

Quite possibly, but to be fair it is still going to be a very strong system, especially for the time of year. I'd say it probably will be one of the strongest storms we will see this Autumn/winter and for it to happen in early September is quite impressive.

Parts of northern England will see some pretty strong gusts if this comes off as predicted, Scotland will bear the brunt (possibly) but certainly I think some parts of the north of England could see some tree / structural damage from this one. (oh and Northern Ireland!)

Edited September 9, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[kold weather]

PM, yeah to be fair your right N.England probably will see some big winds, especially the west facing Lake District hills/mountions and Cumbria in general.

[tinybill]

New advisory out from the NHC, and Katia's track has shifted significantly further south as a response to 12z guidance shifting closer to the UK by +120hrs.

http://www.nhc.noaa....2.shtml?5-daynl

bbc it could get a bit wild monday -tuesday so im off the batten the garden down !!!

[P-M]

PM, yeah to be fair your right N.England probably will see some big winds, especially the west facing Lake District hills/mountions and Cumbria in general.

Sounds about right. Can I ask does anyone know what the effect will be to the east of the Pennines? I remember someone saying something about Lee Wave effect? Is this possible and what is it?

[knightrider]

Nick has updated our daily Katia article:

http://www.netweathe...oryid=798;sess=

This is the latest forecast track for Katia (GFS)

And finally, we have a UK wide weather watch online as of earlier this morning:

http://www.netweathe...;type=alerthome

Looking very nasty for Scotland and perhaps Northern England, extreme south nothing to write home about but could get quite blowy nonetheless. And what's with the Delia adds before every track forecast? lol "Come on Katia, lets be avin you!"

[bobbydog]

I agree.

I think people are getting carried away because this storm was originally a hurricane. When it gets here it will no longer be a Hurricane and to my mind will be a fairly bog standard autumn storm.

i doubt it will be anything other than a bit windy here in the south east.

however i probably won't be planning an outdoor 'house of cards' building competition for monday...

[kold weather]

bbc it could get a bit wild monday -tuesday so im off the batten the garden down !!!

Given we are in the south-eastern quater of the country I suspect things may not be as bad as they will be further north, gusty but probably no worse then a decent winter storm. I suppose you could take in loose objects but i wouldn't be too concerned about it just yet.

[bobbydog]

bbc it could get a bit wild monday -tuesday so im off the batten the garden down !!!

how tiny are you bill? maybe you should stay indoors monday...

[lorenzo]

does anyone here think the met office will issue a Scotland wide red alert or do you think they will be more cautious ?

Red Alerts are very infrequent , possibly to the point of stupidity. Meto for whichever reason don't issue them ?

I would expect to see this.

It may indeed just feel like a strong Autumn storm.

Very recently readings from the highlands produced this, notice the similar wind speeds to those predicted for Ex Katia

[knightrider]

The BBC are weather is saying the mean windspeed for here in Upminster on Monday will be 26mph but only 20mph in Edinbrough, so depends on what you believe I suppose lol Either way if that was the case it wouldn't be massively windy here nor there!

[glasgow-guy]

Red Alerts are very infrequent , possibly to the point of stupidity. Meto for whichever reason don't issue them ?

I would expect to see this.

It may indeed just feel like a strong Autumn storm.

Very recently readings from the highlands produced this, notice the similar wind speeds to those predicted for Ex Katia

to be honest i am predicting The met office

to issue a red alert given that the strongest winds are predicted to occur around lunch time in and around the west of Scotland

[eddie]

Red Alerts are very infrequent , possibly to the point of stupidity. Meto for whichever reason don't issue them ?

I would expect to see this.

It may indeed just feel like a strong Autumn storm.

Very recently readings from the highlands produced this, notice the similar wind speeds to those predicted for Ex Katia

The Met Red warning for wind means.

"Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down.

Risk to personal safety from flying debris.

Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power.

Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees. "

While there will be some disruption I don't think there will be "Widespread structural damage".

[kold weather]

Lorenzo, i think the Highlands will easily be going above 135kph (about 85mph) I suspect we'll be going a fair amount over that actually...I'd be surprised if we don't get a 110mph gust in the Highlands given its elevation and the strength of the low...

Very strong winds for the north, probably a once in 9-12 month type wind event, so nothing *that* exceptional...BUT what DOES make it rare is the fact that its happening so early when the trees are still fairly full.

[Harry]

Katia has the POTENTIAL to be a once in a decade, possibly even once in a lifetime storm if the right ingredients come together....

I'm reading lots of assumptions and people saying what it will be, won't be, who should evacuate, who need not bother...it's only Friday with Katia still sitting next to the NE Coast of the States...she has a 3,000-4,000 mile journey to embark on shortly, where billions upon billions of variables will change.

I think it's foolish to jump to any conclusions when there's the possibility she could miss us altogether, or make the Great Storm/Burns Day storms look relatively meek.

I am still of the inclination her projected path will continue to push South, but we shall wait and see.

[Liam J]

I think some members who are using the words ''normal autumn storm''' for Mondays Ex TS Katia are incorrect, We may all have different preferences as too what we call ''normal autumn storms'' and a depression with the potential for 90mph gusts is not classed as normal in my book.

If this comes off as the models would have you believe there will be damage, disruption and unfortunately loss of life if you happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time come Monday. Wind gusts in excess of 70mph, what I would class as a normal-strong autumn storm strength are pretty serious and can cause damage to structures etc and once you start getting above 80 and even 90mph it becomes a very dangerous situation - hence why the Meto have in the past issued ''Red Alerts'' or emergency weather warnings.

I think that 80mph+ gusts even locally 90mph+ will affect exposed parts N Ireland and parts of Scotland, with N England possibly seeing 70-75mph wind gusts with a low chance of 80mph being recorded over very exposed coasts.

Land gales are also likely to affect part of the uk with strong gusts.

Alot could happen between now and Monday with Katia...

[kold weather]

The Met Red warning for wind means.

"Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down.

Risk to personal safety from flying debris.

Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power.

Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees. "

While there will be some disruption I don't think there will be "Widespread structural damage".

For Western Scotland I think there is a fairly good chance that we meet enough of the critera for a red alert to be issued, generally 85-100mph gusts will be strong enough to produce those sorts of results and I feel those wind speeds are more then likely in places exposed to the west winds.

Got to factor in the fact that the trees are quite alot more leafy then they would be say in October/November when you'd normally get these stronger storms.

[Harry]

I think some members who are using the words ''normal autumn storm''' for Mondays Ex TS Katia are incorrect, We may all have different preferences as too what we call ''normal autumn storms'' and a depression with the potential for 90mph gusts is not classed as normal in my book.

If this comes off as the models would have you believe there will be damage, disruption and unfortunately loss of life if you happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time come Monday. Wind gusts in excess of 70mph, what I would class as a normal-strong autumn storm strength are pretty serious and can cause damage to structures etc and once you start getting above 80 and even 90mph it becomes a very dangerous situation - hence why the Meto have in the past issued ''Red Alerts'' or emergency weather warnings.

I think that 80mph+ gusts even locally 90mph+ will affect exposed parts N Ireland and parts of Scotland, with N England possibly seeing 70-75mph wind gusts with a low chance of 80mph being recorded over very exposed coasts.

Land gales are also likely to affect part of the uk with strong gusts.

Alot could happen between now and Monday with Katia...

The predicted values of 70-90mph could well increase once more is known about Katia - indeed she could fizzle out into a wet fart and do nothing

For Western Scotland I think there is a fairly good chance that we meet enough of the critera for a red alert to be issued, generally 85-100mph gusts will be strong enough to produce those sorts of results and I feel those wind speeds are more then likely in places exposed to the west winds. Got to factor in the fact that the trees are quite alot more leafy then they would be say in October/November when you'd normally get these stronger storms.

Ahh....but will it cause wide enough disruption to "warrant" a warning, in accordance with the MetO's new warning policy?? (which we heard about some weeks ago when a portion of Hampshire was under several inches of water!)

[bodysnatcher]

While there will be some disruption I don't think there will be "Widespread structural damage".

I'll check back with you on that when I'm back home on Islay on Tuesday afternoon (CalMac willing) Mind you my father would always call any winds up to about Storm force as "a bit breezy"

[knightrider]

I'll check back with you on that when I'm back home on Islay on Tuesday afternoon (CalMac willing) Mind you my father would always call any winds up to about Storm force as "a bit breezy"

That's the spirit, good old fashioned British stiff upper lip lol None of this mass evacuation nonesense they have in America, just put the kettle on and ride it out!

[Liam J]

The predicted values of 70-90mph could well increase once more is known about Katia - indeed she could fizzle out into a wet fart and do nothing

I agree this could even upgrade in projected wind speeds and then Katia would be a very severe autumn storm indeed, then again she could downgrade from here on in but the forecast guidance is in favour of a potent system. Alot of variables can influence this storm before it reaches UK waters...

[knightrider]

The predicted values of 70-90mph could well increase once more is known about Katia - indeed she could fizzle out into a wet fart and do nothing

Lol not a wet fart literally I hope, knew I shouldn't have had that mutten Madras last night!

[lorenzo]

There have been a couple of really wild days up here in the last 6 months, granted the gusts from the depth of the low could indeed go higher Kold.

Depending on the track it could still pivot further N of Scotland, the interaction with the preceeding low seems to be calling the shots, some of the models maintain the system on a fixed course between BI and Iceland, other models twist it SE.

The issue is around the Red Warning and METO seem to not use this system correctly, I think where there is a real risk of a loss of life then a red warning should be issued, in some cases this has simply not happened quickly enough, am thinking about last winters grid lock and some of the storm damage earlier this year reported in the regional thread.