Winter 2011/2012

[A Winter's Tale]

I think as we get closer to end of November we may have our first clues about the winter with the first ideas of December CET or perhaps weather patterns.

However we will never know what the winter will be like as a whole until we reach Febuary. Anything could pop out from the wilderness.

My prediction is for a notable cold spell lasting a duration of 12-30 days sometime between November 20th and January 20th. With La Nina strengthening, I fully expect that the best possible scenario for our winter is:

1-5 December: Temperatures around 0C and foggy under anticylclonic conditions.

5 December - 5 January: Big Freeze simular to 2009/2010 in length and Dec 2010 with intesity.

DECEMBER CET: -1.8C

5 January->: Mostly average with a few cold spells with one quite potent and widespread cold spell lasting around a week.

JANUARY CET: 2C

Febuary: Periods of mild and wet; cold and dry.

FEBUARY CET: 3.7C

OVERALL WINTER CET: 1.24C

Realistic Prediction for Winter:

December: Coldest month of winter, with a severe cold spell developing sometime between the 10th and 20th, lasting between 25th December and 5th January.

Mean Temp: -0.1C

January: Perhaps a cold start. Periods of atlantic with a few cold snaps thrown in aswell as calm anticyclonic conditions. I expect a notable cold spell lasting a week.

Mean Temp: 2.8C

Febuary: I expect it to be sunny and mild overall with some brief cold interludes. However I expect another notable cold spell lasting a week.

Mean Temp: 4.0C

Overall Winter CET: 2.14C

What could be ironic is that our Spring and Autumn have had better summery weather than we had in summer. Perhaps we may well have the best of our winter in November and March.

This could mean a mild winter but we could potentially record the coldest November and March on record and even the first ever non winter month to have a sub zero average temperature.

Just imagine:

NOVEMBER: Coldest ever autumn month. -27 beaten with widespread record lows aswell as a month of snow cover with depths in many places well over 30cm.

Mean Temp: -2.0C!!!

DECEMBER: First 5 days are bitterly cold and snowy with the December record (-27c) beaten. However the rest of the month has periods of mild weather aswell as weekly spells of cold, frosty an snowy weather.

Mean Temp: 2C

JANUARY: 1or 2 storms, 2 weeks worth of high pressure, some atlantic fronts with artic blasts aswell as one severe cold spell barely lasting a week.

Mean Temp: 2.6C

FEBUARY: First Week or two is notably cold and snowy before very much milder conditions follow with cold spells between fronts aswell as periods of sunshine.

Mean Temp: 3.6C

MARCH: High pressure over Greenland for first half. Incredibly cold and snowy aswell as above average sunshine. Amazing artic blast sees high pressure over Scandanavia for 2nd half of month. Record breaking temperatues and plenty of snow showers coming from North Sea.

Mean Temp: -2.2C

WINTER CET: 2.62C

However if winter months were November, December and March it would be: -0.67C

How agonising....

Let's hope our winter is record breaking for cold and snow and here's hoping for yet another amazing Big Freeze around December and Christmas. If only it will be longer this time.

[Isolated Frost]

lol I know it's all for fun but thats madness awt!

[Aaron]

i like his optimism, makes a change from the gloom!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think as we get closer to end of November we may have our first clues about the winter with the first ideas of December CET or perhaps weather patterns.

However we will never know what the winter will be like as a whole until we reach Febuary. Anything could pop out from the wilderness.

My prediction is for a notable cold spell lasting a duration of 12-30 days sometime between November 20th and January 20th. With La Nina strengthening, I fully expect that the best possible scenario for our winter is:

1-5 December: Temperatures around 0C and foggy under anticylclonic conditions.

5 December - 5 January: Big Freeze simular to 2009/2010 in length and Dec 2010 with intesity.

DECEMBER CET: -1.8C

5 January->: Mostly average with a few cold spells with one quite potent and widespread cold spell lasting around a week.

JANUARY CET: 2C

Febuary: Periods of mild and wet; cold and dry.

FEBUARY CET: 3.7C

OVERALL WINTER CET: 1.24C

Realistic Prediction for Winter:

December: Coldest month of winter, with a severe cold spell developing sometime between the 10th and 20th, lasting between 25th December and 5th January.

Mean Temp: -0.1C

January: Perhaps a cold start. Periods of atlantic with a few cold snaps thrown in aswell as calm anticyclonic conditions. I expect a notable cold spell lasting a week.

Mean Temp: 2.8C

Febuary: I expect it to be sunny and mild overall with some brief cold interludes. However I expect another notable cold spell lasting a week.

Mean Temp: 4.0C

Overall Winter CET: 2.14C

What could be ironic is that our Spring and Autumn have had better summery weather than we had in summer. Perhaps we may well have the best of our winter in November and March.

This could mean a mild winter but we could potentially record the coldest November and March on record and even the first ever non winter month to have a sub zero average temperature.

Just imagine:

NOVEMBER: Coldest ever autumn month. -27 beaten with widespread record lows aswell as a month of snow cover with depths in many places well over 30cm.

Mean Temp: -2.0C!!!

DECEMBER: First 5 days are bitterly cold and snowy with the December record (-27c) beaten. However the rest of the month has periods of mild weather aswell as weekly spells of cold, frosty an snowy weather.

Mean Temp: 2C

JANUARY: 1or 2 storms, 2 weeks worth of high pressure, some atlantic fronts with artic blasts aswell as one severe cold spell barely lasting a week.

Mean Temp: 2.6C

FEBUARY: First Week or two is notably cold and snowy before very much milder conditions follow with cold spells between fronts aswell as periods of sunshine.

Mean Temp: 3.6C

MARCH: High pressure over Greenland for first half. Incredibly cold and snowy aswell as above average sunshine. Amazing artic blast sees high pressure over Scandanavia for 2nd half of month. Record breaking temperatues and plenty of snow showers coming from North Sea.

Mean Temp: -2.2C

WINTER CET: 2.62C

However if winter months were November, December and March it would be: -0.67C

How agonising....

Let's hope our winter is record breaking for cold and snow and here's hoping for yet another amazing Big Freeze around December and Christmas. If only it will be longer this time.

Are you on drugs?

[Isolated Frost]

I'd also your hopes are to high awt - especially after the sub-zero December, of which we probably will not see again in our lifetimes.

Generally a monthly average under 3c here I regard as cold, 2c v.cold, 1c extremely cold and 0c record breaking. And a monthly cold spell from Dec 5 to Jan 5 is just so unlikely, it's nigh on impossible. We would need the Atlantic basically blocked, lp systems to hang south of us for god knows how long, arctic air to be continuosly sufficient and a strong Greenie block.

I'd also comment that after last winter many people believe Dec will be coldest and Feb warmest, though quite a possibillity, it's mostly unlikely.

[Alex95]

I'd also your hopes are to high awt - especially after the sub-zero December, of which we probably will not see again in our lifetimes.

Generally a monthly average under 3c here I regard as cold, 2c v.cold, 1c extremely cold and 0c record breaking. And a monthly cold spell from Dec 5 to Jan 5 is just so unlikely, it's nigh on impossible. We would need the Atlantic basically blocked, lp systems to hang south of us for god knows how long, arctic air to be continuosly sufficient and a strong Greenie block.

I'd also comment that after last winter many people believe Dec will be coldest and Feb warmest, though quite a possibillity, it's mostly unlikely.

However, we still have a La Nina, and that tends to lead to a milder second half of Winter. I might be wrong, but I believe La Nina is weakening, and that sometimes enhances cold winters.

[cyclonic happiness]

We didnt do very well after the 18th but we had enough snow anyway Lol. On the 22nd the snow was pivoting pretty much right over our area and delivered practically no snow while just 10 miles North had plenty. That was more unlucky that time.

How could you remind me of such a cruel and depressing time!

[Aaron]

I'd also your hopes are to high awt - especially after the sub-zero December, of which we probably will not see again in our lifetimes.

Generally a monthly average under 3c here I regard as cold, 2c v.cold, 1c extremely cold and 0c record breaking. And a monthly cold spell from Dec 5 to Jan 5 is just so unlikely, it's nigh on impossible. We would need the Atlantic basically blocked, lp systems to hang south of us for god knows how long, arctic air to be continuosly sufficient and a strong Greenie block.

I'd also comment that after last winter many people believe Dec will be coldest and Feb warmest, though quite a possibillity, it's mostly unlikely.

The mean temperatue for here in the coldest months is below 3c by a little bit. Over the past decade quite a few months at the airport for example have been below 2c.. it's not uncommon in all honesty.

And a monthly cold spell is not nigh on impossible, unlikely but they have occurred, and probably will again.

February 2003 is a good example, mean temperature 2.2C, January 2001 2.6c, February 2001 2.9C (slap bang on average), then the famous March 2001 spell, mean temperature 3.3c

Edited October 7, 2011 by Aaron

[Robbie Garrett]

Personally I think Winter may surprise us again, from an above average November straight into a extremely cold snap 20th November onwards, with a blast from the Arctic. December continuing with this trend, up until X-mas and until the New Year where it will thaw. Not sure for anything further than that, but 20th November - 20th December could be our Artic Blast if weather setups continue.

[Isolated Frost]

My winter forecast draft:

December: CET 2.9c, UK 2.7c

The month begins with high pressure to the south west but high pressure moving in and ridging, giving cooler, clearer nights to the west and south, and cloud towards northern regions. As the month goes on, a Scandinavian trough builds as heights increase over Greenland, but a stable high pressure pattern to the south, and an inactive atlantic works towards dryness still. Towards mid-month, the high pressure sinks as low pressure systems move south as troughs towards France and Italy - as high pressure holds stronger to the north west, a slack northerly flow, veering slightly west and east during less cool incursions, dominate, giving widespread snow showers to windward coasts and the north. These showers penetrate inland and give some accumulations to many central and southern areas. As the month rides out, low pressure rapidly intensifies and moves north, giving a battleground situation, with cold to the east and mild to the west, giving some brief easterlies and cooler winds to eastern coasts, before deceasing towards milder westerlies and north-westerlies to end the month.

January: CET 4.5c, UK 3.1c

A month that begins with high pressure in the Azores gliding northwards slowly, increasing it's influence in the UK, and a ever strengthening Scandinavian trough, with low pressure belts firmly to the north and south of us. This gives brief northerly topplers throughout the beginning of the month, separated by high pressure moving in from the south-west, giving westerlies, before sinking. This theme continues until heights begin to rise over Scandinavia, and heights lower in the atlantic, giving cause to a more atlantic dominated synoptic scenario to end the month, especially in the south and west. Heights slow in Greenland, and rise in Europe, giving a stable, warmer flow to end the month - with 10c widespread.

February: CET 3.1c, UK 3.8c

To begin the month, the Scandinavian High increases it's presence on us, with low pressure systems gliding SW-NE across the northern parts of the nation, this gives rainfall and milder conditions to the north and west, but in the south and east, cloudier se'lies with average uppers and dewpoints. This transpires into a much warmer scenario with mild southwesterlies/southerlies for a couple of days before, finally the Scandinavian High moves north as low pressure systems move south towards the bay of biscay and iberia. A cold easterly setup begins with heavy snowfall for the south and east. These cause significant distruption to many areas along the east coast, but a low complex towards Greenland/Iceland begins to move south, just as heights begin to fall in Scandinavia, and cause a more wet, north-westerly or westerly scenario mid-month as high pressure builds to the west and low pressure to the north and east. High pressure begins to sink again in Europe. Late on in the month, after an unsettled period of north-westerlies, high pressure moves in from the south giving a first sign of spring to many, as the jet stays far west and north. Temperature rise to 15c in some areas in the warm sunshine of the west, but cloudier conditions in the east.

In summary, a cool winter with a cet of 3.6c. A dry, cool December, a very dry south and wetter north in an average January, to a cool February despite generally milder conditions, thanks to a potent Scandinavian blast.

[Backtrack]

Sorry Isolated Frost, but in my eyes that's very bias towards the East. Where you just so happen to live! :o

Thanks for the forecast though.

[Andy_]

Sorry Isolated Frost, but in my eyes that's very bias towards the East. Where you just so happen to live!

Thanks for the forecast though.

I thought it was quite conservative actually although it's a bit of a pointless effort saying which high pressure systems are going to be where at what time this far out... I think as nice as winter forecasts are at the start of October that level of detail isn't needed. Maybe you should just say if each month is going to be below, on or above average on temperature and precipitation (@isolated frost) (based on current expectations of course)

I've been watching the CFS forecasts for some time now and they've been writing off December, i think i read that they are over doing the ENSO conditions? but i'm getting a bit concerned... Hopefully it's just a lousy model that will inevitably turn out incorrect - as i think any chance of a lengthy type cold spell (similar to the last 2 years) we have this winter would be concentrated in Late November, December and January.

Edited October 7, 2011 by Andy163

[Isolated Frost]

I thought it was quite conservative actually although it's a bit of a pointless effort saying which high pressure systems are going to be where at what time this far out... I think as nice as winter forecasts are at the start of October that level of detail isn't needed. Maybe you should just say if each month is going to be below, on or above average on temperature and precipitation (@isolated frost) (based on current expectations of course)

I've been watching the CFS forecasts for some time now and they've been writing off December, i think i read that they are over doing the ENSO conditions? but i'm getting a bit concerned... Hopefully it's just a lousy model that will inevitably turn out incorrect - as i think any chance of a lengthy type cold spell (similar to the last 2 years) we have this winter would be concentrated in Late November, December and January.

lol yes it's a bit of fun anyway

and backtrack, sour because the last few winters have been biased to the east aswell? haha

[Andy_]

lol yes it's a bit of fun anyway

and backtrack, sour because the last few winters have been biased to the east aswell? haha

I know and i don't mean to be a kill joy, but its painful when you see a forecast you wish would happen but it never does hahahah. If it were up to me anyways December 2010 would repeat itself for 3 months every year ha

[Robbie Garrett]

Oh I just realised imagine having a thundery breakdown with a 21+C and a cold front going through with -20 at 850hpa - nice thundery breakdown with Heavy Snow and Lightning...

I am sure it wont work like that but hey

[I remember Atlantic 252]

An easterly should in theory favour Norfolk, but it depends where the showers set-up as a large area of PPN does not always develop. I would think a North Easterly should deliver but it depends where the Low is centred and North Easterlies are rare.

Going back to the classics, I'd be amazed if this did not deliver for Norfolk :

http://www.wetterzen...00119790214.gif

IM too young for that? did our area get any? mid feb expect 103m is too low

[A Winter's Tale]

I would just like to clarify that my article on a sub zero November and March was just a joke about how the best of summer happened before and after summery weather is supposed to happen.

And in Actual fact I would never hope for that type of extreme weather in November and March unless winter was an absolute dog's dinner. Imagine -20C in March - ridiculous and totally wrong! Just some snow aswell as some warmth for the Spring to arrive would be perfect

[Aaron]

Imagine -20C in March?, just look back 10 years!

[Backtrack]

lol yes it's a bit of fun anyway

and backtrack, sour because the last few winters have been biased to the east aswell? haha

That's ok. I had a foot of snow in December, along with -10C temperatures.

I thought it was quite conservative actually although it's a bit of a pointless effort saying which high pressure systems are going to be where at what time this far out... I think as nice as winter forecasts are at the start of October that level of detail isn't needed. Maybe you should just say if each month is going to be below, on or above average on temperature and precipitation (@isolated frost) (based on current expectations of course)

I've been watching the CFS forecasts for some time now and they've been writing off December, i think i read that they are over doing the ENSO conditions? but i'm getting a bit concerned... Hopefully it's just a lousy model that will inevitably turn out incorrect - as i think any chance of a lengthy type cold spell (similar to the last 2 years) we have this winter would be concentrated in Late November, December and January.

CFS is crap over a month out. A pointless model imo, it's only useful for trends.

[Isolated Frost]

That's ok. I had a foot of snow in December, along with -10C temperatures.

Oh did you? Sorry about that, that 18th Dec (I think) event must really have been good - so there's two winters in a row that you've had good snowfalls - sorry about the confusion on my behalf before then!

CFS is crap over a month out. A pointless model imo, it's only useful for trends.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm not sure, like many of the classic winters we were often too far North for the events that occured and there were some huge snowfall totals in the South Midlands.

Yes, we need to remember that last December was exceptional and cold fans should remember them for many years ;

http://www.wetterzen...00120101129.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120101218.gif

You couldn't draw charts better than those.

we got some then, 2nd one was a bit too far north, but got a decent amount, may have got more than you, as i am further south

[Backtrack]

Haha no probs.

2 winters in a row indeed! 3rd time lucky I hope.

Edited October 7, 2011 by Backtrack

[Harve]

IM too young for that? did our area get any? mid feb expect 103m is too low

North Sea temperatures, and probably easterly air masses themselves, are at the coldest in mid February. 103m would definitely be high enough.

[Guest]

Was talking to my tenant this evening - he is from Montreal, shortly to return - he was talking about the joys of waiting for a bus when it is -40C

[stewfox]

I think as we get closer to end of November we may have our first clues about the winter with the first ideas of December CET or perhaps weather patterns.

Realistic Prediction for Winter:

December: Coldest month of winter, with a severe cold spell developing sometime between the 10th and 20th, lasting between 25th December and 5th January.

Mean Temp: -0.1C

I agree by the end of November we should have a good idea what the likely CET for the first week of December should be.

Based on 350 yrs of CET a realistic figure for December should be 3-4c