Winter 2011/2012

[Aaron]

Was talking to my tenant this evening - he is from Montreal, shortly to return - he was talking about the joys of waiting for a bus when it is -40C

Beats standing in the cold rain and wind for a bus. (even though it has never reached -40C in Montreal)

Edited October 7, 2011 by Aaron

[MP-R]

-40C windchill more like. However, the lowest temperature ever recorded was −37.8 °C on January 15th, 1957.

Back to the UK and I hope that it is a repeat of last year but starting a month later so that the cold doesn't just vanish never to be seen again after Christmas.

[Mesoscale]

Last december was nice, I got -14C on one morning and me being an idiot I thought the pond would be frozen enough to walk on... it wasn't! the only bad thing was we didn't get that much snow about 4/5 inches over the whole month nothing compared to south london which saw feet of snow fall in just a couple of days, I didn't even get a snow day.

Now im living in southampton I do not think I will see anywhere near -14C or even that much snow as I live right next to the Solent. The Solent Snow Maker????

Im not complaing though as I actually had snow still on the ground on Christmas day and Boxing day.

Autumn and Winter are my favourite times of the year, when im cold I can just wrap up warm.

[Weather-history]

I think as we get closer to end of November we may have our first clues about the winter with the first ideas of December CET or perhaps weather patterns.

The fact is we still won't really know. November 2009 gave no indication to the winter.

[picog]

Last december was nice, I got -14C on one morning and me being an idiot I thought the pond would be frozen enough to walk on... it wasn't! the only bad thing was we didn't get that much snow about 4/5 inches over the whole month nothing compared to south london which saw feet of snow fall in just a couple of days, I didn't even get a snow day.

Now im living in southampton I do not think I will see anywhere near -14C or even that much snow as I live right next to the Solent. The Solent Snow Maker????

Im not complaing though as I actually had snow still on the ground on Christmas day and Boxing day.

Autumn and Winter are my favourite times of the year, when im cold I can just wrap up warm.

Don't give up hope. I lived in Southampton, and in January 1985ish (the year we had an amazing easterly) we had fantastically low temperature and tons of snow. All the water pipes froze in the house, and people couldn't get to work.

[wimblettben]

The fact is we still won't really know. November 2009 gave no indication to the winter.

Yes the weather in that month was the worst for any cold fan to wan't to witness.

The fact is we still won't really know. November 2009 gave no indication to the winter.

Yes the weather in that month was the worst for any cold fan to have to witness.

[wimblettben]

The fact is we still won't really know. November 2009 gave no indication to the winter.

Yes the weather in that month was the worst for any cold fan to have to witness.

[snowlover2009]

The fact is we still won't really know. November 2009 gave no indication to the winter.

Yes but looking back in the archives, you can see blocking was in place still, to the north and over Scandinavia:

It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is a good sign IMO, I didn't notice it as much until i looked back on it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091111.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091129.gif

Throughout the month, there was occasions off weak high pressure building to the north of those low pressure systems that kept driving into the UK.

[WorsleySnow]

The ramping has started in earnest on the local radio station in Manchester today, temps expected to drop to -20c in the next few weeks, local authorities preparing for another harsh winter. The Dail Mail must have arrived at Key 103!!

[wimblettben]

I wonder if we will get something similar to this video during the Winter.

That would be a lot of snow and with some lightning thrown into the mix as well.

[Summer Sun]

Cold end December?

Chilly November too

Issued: Saturday 8th October 2011

Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*November*

It looks as if low pressure will at first be anchored to the west or southwest High pressure sitting over the UK, at this time of year is a recipe for typical autumnal weather; we will be chasing areas of cloud, determining the exact characteristics of the daily weather from area to area, a broad overview being essentially dry, settled and for the most part cool, offset by pleasant mid-autumn sunshine.

The Atlantic takes over through the middle period, so milder and more unsettled conditions sweeping eastward later with a generally westerly for a time, high pressure builds back again, so settled weather establishing once more.

As high pressure edges westward towards the end of the month it is possible that the first plunge of 'true' Arctic air could push south, some snow showers for a time over northern hills and mountain tops.

A colder and frosty end to the month is anticipated as this colder air becomes trapped beneath a developing area of high pressure.

*December*

Cold air and settled weather may character the opening few days of the month, this however looks as if it'll be shunted out-of-the-way by low pressure and milder Atlantic conditions, rain and strong winds for all areas and perhaps preceded by some temporary wintry mixture across the north of the UK.

The Atlantic may rule the roost for the first 10 days, thereafter winter is indicated to unfold in perhaps quite a dramatic fashion. Low pressure looks as if it'll be halted over the UK as pressure builds to the east and north of the UK, a southerly flow swinging into the southeast and east, much colder continental air being drawn into the country, wintry precipitation perhaps widespread.

Too early to say whether this cold weather will extend into the Christmas period just yet, winter 2011-12 may see some 'chopping and changing', but essential the prognosis is 'rather cold and lengthy'?

Full forecast here - http://www.weatheronline...ILE=sea&DAY=20111008

[summer blizzard]

The fact is we still won't really know. November 2009 gave no indication to the winter.

The fact is we still won't really know. November 2009 gave no indication to the winter.

Unless you were watching the stratosphere in which case you would have been quite excited.

[willinkent]

hoping this winter is worse for the se, ie kent, like late 80's early 90's with faversham/sheppey cut off..... want the north sea lake effect to cut in..... maybe like the nw new york state gets..... 1m+ of snow please....(otago county) i know there is a 0.000009% outside chance but would enjoy that..... such fun....

[Aaron]

North Sea 'lake effect' snow is great.. that's the only source of our snow, and the reason we got around a foot last winter.

[Isolated Frost]

Latest signs not looking too great for the winter, QBQ becoming less easterly, heights low over the north. I know these can change but as of now, I'm pessimistic.

[stewfox]

The fact is we still won't really know. November 2009 gave no indication to the winter.

He clearly stated end of November and by then we had a clear idea that December (at least first 10 days) was going to be very cold.

In fact by 3rd December it was very clear peoples CET 'guesses' for December were going to be miles out.

I dont think we have the model output discussion for Nov 2009 on here (a great pity they are not kept) but would guess signals were picked up T168

So by the 3rd week November we should get an idea of what early winter maybe bring..

Latest signs not looking too great for the winter, QBQ becoming less easterly, heights low over the north. I know these can change but as of now, I'm pessimistic.

My forecast is already going off kilter.

I forecast first winters over post 22nd Decmber 2011 , looks like its 9th October

Edited October 9, 2011 by stewfox

[Isolated Frost]

A winter that is mild is not a winter that is over and anyway it's all guesswork right now I will definitely not say winter is over!!

[stewfox]

A winter that is mild is not a winter that is over and anyway it's all guesswork right now I will definitely not say winter is over!!

Interesting comment 'a winter that is mild is not a winter that is over'.

Of course many people on here want cold/snow the duartion of which would vary.

My partner would be happy with 14c throughout the whole of winter but were doing tests.

As the UK particulary low lying areas are always marginal for snow it leads to a fasination unparalled elsewhere.

Edited October 9, 2011 by stewfox

[SNOW GO]

Heard over on the Met Monkey forum that ex Accu Weather forecaster Joe laminate floori is going for a cold European Winter particulary during January and February.

An interesting all be it very cold looking preliminary forecast also from Weather Blogger Mark Vogan, worth a look if you have got a moment.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/

I am hoping Cheshire/North West of England get some decent snowfall this year all though we have seen substantial enough cold and snow 10-15 cm max last year with -15- -18c lows during the past 2 winters notably on the 5th Jan 2010 where the entire North west of england and then Midlands were engulfed in a direct N- NW Irish Sea, Cheshire Gap snow streamer that seemed to develop from nowhere giving locally blizzzard conditions for a time with accumalations up to 20-30cm in Manchester City centre as well as the Stockport area and around 15-25cm in the surrounding areas of Cheshire, Gtr Manchester, Merseyside and the Wirral the heaviest seen in Manchester city centre since 1978/79.

Despite this though and fellow North westerners and to an extent Midland members will probably agree we tend to get the short straw when it comes to large scale snowfall events with the heaviest snowfall often being in the extreme south east and North east giving us little chance in getting in on the action in recent winters.

Heres hoping the tables are turned around this year!!

Edited October 9, 2011 by SNOW GO

[Weather-history]

He clearly stated end of November and by then we had a clear idea that December (at least first 10 days) was going to be very cold.

We are talking about December 2009 and not December 2010. The first 10 days of December 2009 were not cold, [CET up to the 10th was 6.6C],. the cold didn't really set in till mid month. So we didn't know how that winter was going to turn out going off that November of 2009. Infact the first 10 days of December 2009 were the mildest all winter.

Edited October 9, 2011 by Mr_Data

[yukichon]

Just read this article so I've copied and pasted it:

Summer still, but be warned. This seems very daunting. This Year will continue the Cycle of 'Colder & Snowier Than Normal' Winters for the UK

'The 2011-12 winter may be one of worst overall for UK in last 100 Years with past two a mere curtain raiser'

HIGHLIGHTS

Extreme Cold Will Be a Regular Visitor with Low Temps of between -16 to -24C possible from Scotland's far north to the Suburbs of London

Another White Christmas is possible for most of the UK, most likely over Scotland

Cold and Snow to Arrive to much of UK by December 15th and may last throughout January I have real concerns about what winter may bring to us across the UK in 2011-12. Low solar activity is continuing to force me into the thinking of harsh winter weather for us and although winter arrived early during 2010-11, don't be fooled when winter doesn't arrive by December 1st.

Renewed High-Latitude Volcanic Acivity, Quiet Sun Spot Acivity and Near Neutral ENSO or La Nina Pattern in Pacific Points to Another Harsh Winter

I believe the continued unsettled and wet summers the UK is experiencing continues to point to increasingly colder winters and with a near neutral ENSO and the continued influence of high-latitude volcanic activity, major 'blocking' will send exceptional cold from the Pole, Northern Europe and Siberia across the UK and my fear is that this will set up shop for a sustained period of time which may test all-time record cold in many UK towns and Cities.

This winter may bring severe icing on the River Clyde, Thames, Loch Lomond and even around some UK coastal areas.

The worst of the cold I believe will hit around or just after New Year following a 3rd UK-wide White Christmas in a row and may last through much of January. Within this cold spell, Highs may struggle to reach -10C in Glasgow and Edinburgh and lows may take a run at -20C. Many English and Welsh towns and Cities may struggle to reach highs of -6 to -8C and lows may tumble towards -18 to -21C.

It is possible that the all-time coldest reading in the UK of -27C reached at both Braemar, Aberdeenshire and Altnaharra, Sutherland may be threatened if not beaten and even in areas of England we may see the first -20C low since the 1960s and 70s.

As for Europe, Arctic cold may spread continent-wide during late December and we may be looking at a period of severe cold after a snowy December from the UK to Poland. Record cold and a maximum test to humanity, the power system and transport infrastructure may make for tough living for 2-3 weeks in January.

Mark Vogan

Something to worry about, as the ARTIC is already starting to cool down and is currently at -10C, if it continues depending on the weather patterns we could be in for a record breaker.

[EML Network]

So many different opinions about what winter will bring.

I have been saying now since July, that were likely to have a slow start to winter, bar the odd northerly incursion in November, and it's now looking as if more people are jumping onto the bandwagon.

A settled and dry start to December, following on from a generally cold, wet and potentially quite windy November is how I see things starting off.

As we head towards the festive period, I still believe that things will start to fall into place, with omega blocking the atlantic dominated feed, and the weather swinging from a more Easterly direction, although I don't believe we'll see a true easterly feed until January.

IMO that were not really going to see prolonged cold and snowy conditions (South of Scotland) for the most part this winter, at least up until Mid Jan, thereafter is simply too far off, and I don't think anyone can tell you what is likely to happen past Mid Jan at this stage, with any degree of certainty, indeed, even trying to predict Decembers likely weather at this stage can't really be done with more than 33.3% confidence he he..we can simply point at trends, and patterns.

What I have noticed this winter is the quick build up of Ice over the N.Hemisphere, which is almost making landfall now to N.Russia, once the ice sheet hits land, true winter starts to creep ever eastwards, and it's really a question of where the cool pooling is going to be, and in which direction it heads come Mid Dec, once it's established itself.

Looking at the CFS charts today you can clearly see cold pooling headed towards mid Europe in November, creeping East, but never really impacting the UK, and this has been the case in the CFS cimputer runs for a while now.

So As I have stated several times on various forums, IMO a dry and even mild start to December, mid month well see a change taking place, to much cooler conditions, but whether that will lead to widespread snowfall just in time for x-mas dinner is another question entirely and one no one can answer at this stage, the good thing is that cold looks probable from about 20th Dec onwards, if it simply says hello and buggers off East or if it decides to spend it's x-mas vacation in the UK, and go sight seeing until early March is someething we'll simply have to wait to find out the answer to.

Edited October 9, 2011 by EML Network

[summer blizzard]

North Sea 'lake effect' snow is great.. that's the only source of our snow, and the reason we got around a foot last winter.

North Sea 'lake effect' snow is great.. that's the only source of our snow, and the reason we got around a foot last winter.

It's not really the source of all our snow, just our largest falls from showers. We tend to get snow from W, NW, NE and E. A southerly element even if cold just brings sunshine unless its mild from the SW, a N means that we just get the sun due a wishbone effect.

We do of course do better than most from frontal snowfall due to a pretty perfect location.

[snowdrifter]

Sorry if this has been mentioned already folks, as much as I would like this winter to be cold and snowy, I'm afraid that the recent observed rise in sunspots/solar activity could scupper chances. I'm no expert, but I've seen pages such as this - http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6 ishowing both an upward observed and predicted rise. Any thoughts people?

[Snowstorm1]

Sorry if this has been mentioned already folks, as much as I would like this winter to be cold and snowy, I'm afraid that the recent observed rise in sunspots/solar activity could scupper chances. I'm no expert, but I've seen pages such as this - http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6 ishowing both an upward observed and predicted rise. Any thoughts people?

Well I repeat Im no expert on this but we are now at the peak of the solar cycle and despite an increase the sun spots are still very low compared to what they should be during a solar maximum

Edited October 9, 2011 by Snowstorm1