Winter 2011/2012

[Kiwi]

just good forecasting.

Not sure that we should be throwing stones.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8519064/Hot-dry-summer-in-store-say-forecasters.html

[Isolated Frost]

Not sure that we should be throwing stones.

http://www.telegraph...orecasters.html

Indeed - but that was one (large) blip. Generally you can't disagree with NW.

I'm sure PWS get it right sometimes, but it's often sensationalist - and they have changed their minds dozens of times for their winter forecast. But yes, as you say, we shouldn't throw stones.

[Crepuscular Ray]

I'm sure PWS get it right sometimes, but it's often sensationalist - and they have changed their minds dozens of times for their winter forecast. But yes, as you say, we shouldn't throw stones.

As could anyone else, sometimes, using seaweed, chicken entrails and guesswork... (not that I'm saying that's what PWS use, obviously!)

Edited October 10, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[Andy_]

Maybe so but there is alot of other organisations and most noticetably on this forum who seems to have a global cooling bias which seems to reflect their forecasts for Winter.

Oh i know lol some of them are ridiculous, i mean there's only so much you can preach on solar cycles and what not.

Stick to Netweather (and Met-office if they give snippets?!) for your winter needs. No bias, just good forecasting.

Yeah i totally agree, although i tend to take a bit from both GW and GC sides and find a happy medium.

I would like to point out that i still have a lot of respect for the Met Office, especially their short term weather forecasts which are extremely good nowadays!

Edited October 10, 2011 by Andy163

[sebastiaan1973]

Regarding the image you have posted. Are they suggesting our part of Europe being cooler than average or just cool?

Cooler than average.

BTW I heard from a meteorologist of Weerplaza (Commercial weather company in the Netherlands) the ECMWF model predicts a cold (below average) winter.

Edited October 10, 2011 by sebastiaan1973

[damianslaw]

However, much I enjoy reading this thread - as with any forecast it is only speculation. I agree if we go by the stats we are due either an average or milder than average winter - but it go by the stats the summer just gone had a much greater probability of being warmer than average - alas it never happened.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Winter Forecast 2010-2011- Average Winter, Dry, Mild End

Factors affecting winter forecast (period 1.12.11- 29.2.12)

• Enso state

• Solar activity

• QBO

• Yearly analogues

• Jet stream behaviour

• Long range model output (CFS, ECM LONG RANGE etc)

So here it is, the winter preliminary thoughts as promised; this particular has proven more tricky to put together than last year’s offering and so confidence is slightly reduced due to conflicting signals. During the past 6 months we have seen a reduction in the strength of the la Nina that was particularly prevalent during the latter half of winter 2010/2011, even so we remain in la Nina conditions- however predictions are for a weak la Nina rather than a moderate/strong offering. I consider this to be a good pointer to a colder than average winter across the UK.

However, less positive indicators include the awakening of the sun which has seen heightened activity over the last 12 months and a propensity of the jet stream to migrate further north than has been the case prior to the beginning of the year and post 2006.

Long range model output at this moment in time appears to support the notion of a dry winter period, this can be seen within long range forecasting models such as the ECM. Another theme appears with average temperatures being displayed across models such as the CFS. This suggests high pressure over or very close to UK shores.

Winter to start off colder than it ends- November into December looks to be the coldest period of the winter, much like 2010-2011, a much milder end to the winter seems likely with an early spring season.

December

Starting off cold or perhaps very cold with a propensity for high pressure around Iceland and southern Greenland with east to northeasterly winds being the dominant direction. As the month progresses, it remains cold with some very cold minima but with high levels of sunshine relative to the time of year. A dry month with rainfall around 70% of average or lower. Less in the way of snow as the month progresses with high pressure, originally across Iceland, slipping south to settle on top of the UK.

CET estimate: Below Average

January

The month starts off cold and dry with extensive night time frosts but predominantly dry. Day time temperatures will be on the cold side though will feel pleasant in the extensive sunny intervals where mist and fog clears. Throughout the month, high pressure will settle over or very close to the UK but with a southward trend and thus allowing an Atlantic feed into the north of Scotland and Ireland. This atlantic influence will increase temperatures and will begin to spread further south during the month as the jet stream powers up over the top of the high pressure cell. An average month in terms of temperature but possibly below in terms of precipitation.

CET estimate: Average

February

An above average month in terms of temperatures- synoptics akin to February 1998 though perhaps not as mild. High pressure slips away south with powerful jetstream to the north. Rain and drizzle commonplace across northern and western areas with the driest weather across the south and east. Limited frost potential.

CET estimate: Above average

These are my preliminary thoughts on winter 2011-2012, the final forecast will be released around the middle of November.

CreweCold

[ZONE 51]

CrewCold good forecast i look foward to later in november for your updates.

I expect a high pressure december and widespread cold, the solar activity increase i think not to be having an effect to much, this is because of a delayed affect on the atmosphere, and that has already affected the oceans, the increase of activity is still way below what would be normal, also with all this acting on the jet stream pattern, i expect a southerly track of the jet stream soon heading far south taking with it low pressures leaving a block up situation for us to evolve the cold, i expect the most snow to move in from the north east and become widespread as early as mid november, i dont see snow in the south during any time this october but high hills/mountain snow always a possibilty for the north this month as we get colder spells

il most likely be releasing my lrf in november but i may just issue it at the end of this month, waiting for a few more signals and indications first!

Edited October 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

This should kick-start the ramping!

Edited October 11, 2011 by Aaron

[Robbie Garrett]

This should kick-start the ramping!

I didn't see that yesterday....

[ITSY]

cooler November and December than normal for me but nothing too unusual - although perhaps earlier heavy snow across the higher ground of northern England than normal. Jan and Feb I think will be very mild - I'm also going for an average to slightly above average winter

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Winter Forecast 2010-2011- Average Winter, Dry, Mild End

Factors affecting winter forecast (period 1.12.11- 29.2.12)

• Enso state

• Solar activity

• QBO

• Yearly analogues

• Jet stream behaviour

• Long range model output (CFS, ECM LONG RANGE etc)

So here it is, the winter preliminary thoughts as promised; this particular has proven more tricky to put together than last year’s offering and so confidence is slightly reduced due to conflicting signals. During the past 6 months we have seen a reduction in the strength of the la Nina that was particularly prevalent during the latter half of winter 2010/2011, even so we remain in la Nina conditions- however predictions are for a weak la Nina rather than a moderate/strong offering. I consider this to be a good pointer to a colder than average winter across the UK.

However, less positive indicators include the awakening of the sun which has seen heightened activity over the last 12 months and a propensity of the jet stream to migrate further north than has been the case prior to the beginning of the year and post 2006.

Long range model output at this moment in time appears to support the notion of a dry winter period, this can be seen within long range forecasting models such as the ECM. Another theme appears with average temperatures being displayed across models such as the CFS. This suggests high pressure over or very close to UK shores.

Winter to start off colder than it ends- November into December looks to be the coldest period of the winter, much like 2010-2011, a much milder end to the winter seems likely with an early spring season.

CreweCold

Hi Crewe

Nice bold preliminary thoughts. Couple of points for. The awakening of the sun is mot really 'an awakening' as eg at the point of the cycle right now compared to same point in cycle 23, 22, 22, 21, 20, 19 etc it is way below that...the sun in effect is still very quiet. The jetstream has had a jaunt north but its propensity is to still be further south and more meridional than the 'dreaded' late 90s early 2000 years. On those two factors I'll say cool/cold more likely than mild. However, early days yet and many mixed signals teleconnection wise and this winter could go either way in our location although I do anticipate a cold NH winter as a rule..

Nice to see early thoughts though and nowt to say you aren't pointing in right direction either.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

I wonder how much impact the recent changes to the Arctic ice-cover is having on recent North West European climates, considering the relatively close proximity of the Arctic?

[syed2878]

Hey guys i hope i'm not gona afend any1 but it would be good if u guys could put a bit of text behind the images sometimes u guys post. Having verry limited vision it's hard to make out the picks. Thanks guys.

[feb1991blizzard]

Winter Forecast 2010-2011- Average Winter, Dry, Mild End

Factors affecting winter forecast (period 1.12.11- 29.2.12)

• Enso state

• Solar activity

• QBO

• Yearly analogues

• Jet stream behaviour

• Long range model output (CFS, ECM LONG RANGE etc)

So here it is, the winter preliminary thoughts as promised; this particular has proven more tricky to put together than last year’s offering and so confidence is slightly reduced due to conflicting signals. During the past 6 months we have seen a reduction in the strength of the la Nina that was particularly prevalent during the latter half of winter 2010/2011, even so we remain in la Nina conditions- however predictions are for a weak la Nina rather than a moderate/strong offering. I consider this to be a good pointer to a colder than average winter across the UK.

However, less positive indicators include the awakening of the sun which has seen heightened activity over the last 12 months and a propensity of the jet stream to migrate further north than has been the case prior to the beginning of the year and post 2006.

Long range model output at this moment in time appears to support the notion of a dry winter period, this can be seen within long range forecasting models such as the ECM. Another theme appears with average temperatures being displayed across models such as the CFS. This suggests high pressure over or very close to UK shores.

Winter to start off colder than it ends- November into December looks to be the coldest period of the winter, much like 2010-2011, a much milder end to the winter seems likely with an early spring season.

December

Starting off cold or perhaps very cold with a propensity for high pressure around Iceland and southern Greenland with east to northeasterly winds being the dominant direction. As the month progresses, it remains cold with some very cold minima but with high levels of sunshine relative to the time of year. A dry month with rainfall around 70% of average or lower. Less in the way of snow as the month progresses with high pressure, originally across Iceland, slipping south to settle on top of the UK.

CET estimate: Below Average

January

The month starts off cold and dry with extensive night time frosts but predominantly dry. Day time temperatures will be on the cold side though will feel pleasant in the extensive sunny intervals where mist and fog clears. Throughout the month, high pressure will settle over or very close to the UK but with a southward trend and thus allowing an Atlantic feed into the north of Scotland and Ireland. This atlantic influence will increase temperatures and will begin to spread further south during the month as the jet stream powers up over the top of the high pressure cell. An average month in terms of temperature but possibly below in terms of precipitation.

CET estimate: Average

February

An above average month in terms of temperatures- synoptics akin to February 1998 though perhaps not as mild. High pressure slips away south with powerful jetstream to the north. Rain and drizzle commonplace across northern and western areas with the driest weather across the south and east. Limited frost potential.

CET estimate: Above average

These are my preliminary thoughts on winter 2011-2012, the final forecast will be released around the middle of November.

CreweCold

A realistic, well thought out forecast and a far better effort than the attention seeking, headline grabbing forecasts by some of the so called professionals. My biggest fear is we may have a very small window of opportunity for potent cold and that the second half of winter will be mid lattitude high dominated and a slow sinker in feb spelling the end. I just hope the nina stays very weak or at least any lag of enso neutral atmospheric conditions gives us the first half of jan as well. Of course this is speculation at this range and things can change but at the moment i just dont see any evidence of this 'ice age initiation winter' and i know sunspot activity is low but it was even lower last year so what happened to the doomsday forecasts for the second half of last years winter? obviously la nina took hold and is forecast to do likewise this winter.

Early to mid december for me is the best chance of potent cold.

[karyo]

Early to mid december for me is the best chance of potent cold.

According to the CFS, November is looking the most promising month at the moment.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

However, CFS is the most keen model to strengthen La Nina so if it's overdoing it then things may turn out more promising.

Karyo

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hi Crewe

Nice bold preliminary thoughts. Couple of points for. The awakening of the sun is mot really 'an awakening' as eg at the point of the cycle right now compared to same point in cycle 23, 22, 22, 21, 20, 19 etc it is way below that...the sun in effect is still very quiet. The jetstream has had a jaunt north but its propensity is to still be further south and more meridional than the 'dreaded' late 90s early 2000 years. On those two factors I'll say cool/cold more likely than mild. However, early days yet and many mixed signals teleconnection wise and this winter could go either way in our location although I do anticipate a cold NH winter as a rule..

Nice to see early thoughts though and nowt to say you aren't pointing in right direction either.

BFTP

For me there are a lot of positive factors going for this winter and I may have been slightly dismissive of heights remaining high enough further to the north. The key for me is how the jetstream behaves during the remainder of the winter and the strength of the la Nina. I would say the closer to neutral it can remain the better.....if it stays relatively weak then I think there is a chance that I may have located the high pressure cell too far south for January and February. A lot will be cleared up come the time of the final winter forecast release in a months time.

[Stormyking]

And crewecold your forecast looks like a direct copy of winter 2010-2011.

Not really, his forecast is going for a Cold december but a drier one, where as last year in the December it was snowy and not dry at all really, so it isn't really a direct copy of last winter.

[Met4Cast]

Not really, his forecast is going for a Cold december but a drier one, where as last year in the December it was snowy and not dry at all really, so it isn't really a direct copy of last winter.

Not really, his forecast is going for a Cold december but a drier one, where as last year in the December it was snowy and not dry at all really, so it isn't really a direct copy of last winter.

Not true. Last December was one of the driest for years. 1mm of rain = to 1cm of snow, roughly. So it doesn't take much at all for snow levels to build up.

[Stormyking]

Not true. Last December was one of the driest for years. 1mm of rain = to 1cm of snow, roughly. So it doesn't take much at all for snow levels to build up.

Oh right ok, yeh I forgot about that my bad.

To be honest we will get a better picture come the end of November me thinks. in my opinion Im still going for a slightly belowe avergae winter with some decent cold snowy spells, with some mild interludes

[Cheshire Freeze]

"However, less positive indicators include the awakening of the sun which has seen heightened activity over the last 12 month"

Why is there the automatic assumption that "positive" means colder, snowier etc? Not everybody likes colder than normal winters.

And crewecold your forecast looks like a direct copy of winter 2010-2011.

There is no 'automatic assumption' at all, why did you 'automatically assume' it was an automatic assumption? I have merely listed a list of factors which I have taken into account when producing the forecast. I wrote it in one particular viewpoint......my viewpoint; sorry for any offence caused. Rather than knocking people who take the time to produce such forecasts, why don't you spend time producing one yourself

Oh and I didn't even consider last winter when producing the forecast- it has next to no bearing on how this winter will pan out; just because my forecast looks similar to how last winter panned out it doesn't mean that this winter is forbidden from turning out that way.

Edited October 11, 2011 by CreweCold

[Backtrack]

Let's be honest, we're going to see some cold and some mild.

You're not gonna go through a whole season without seeing winds veering to the North or East at least once.

I think this winter will be way below average both temperature wise and precipitation wise. Could be great for walks with short sunny days and frosty cold nights.

[in the vale]

The National Grid seem to be expecting a colder than average winter - see here http://uk.reuters.co...E79A4XV20111011 although I can't find the actual press release to check for the spin level....

Edited October 11, 2011 by in the vale

[Isolated Frost]

Reuters are reliable enough for me to trust them.

[in the vale]

The National Grid seem to be expecting a colder than average winter - see here http://uk.reuters.co...E79A4XV20111011 although I can't find the actual press release to check for the spin level....

I have found the National Grid publication - http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/BE947476-51DF-4D5F-8E2B-5342595157A9/49492/Winter_Outlook_Report_201112.pdf and the weather is on page 6. However, having worked in the energy industry for many years I know they don't just rely on publicly available forecasts, they do spend a shed load of cash on other sources (as you would expect).