Winter 2011/2012

[snowdrifter]

What you have to look at is not what it compares to this time last year but how it compares to cycles 18-23 during the 20th century etc. This cycle is still very low. It is mirroring cycle 5 [Dalton proportions] and it is anticipated that 25 will be even quieter. We are heading towards the maxima of this cycle over next 2 years, we should expect an increase. Also to note, sunspots are being counted now that could not be seen by Wolf et al way back when.

BFTP

Thanks BFTP. Just recently came across this (click on 'view PDF' link), a paper written in 2004 for the International Astronomical Union. Two things stand out which back up BFTP's comments:

The paper shows of graph containing a

"...reconstruction of all Schwabe-Wolf cycle magnitudes after AD 296 by use of historical reports mainly for auroras and naked-eye visible sunspots."

Despite it being obvious when you think about it, I'd not considered that sunspot counts from way back when would not mean those we can see today through technology. The other thing to notice is the extrapololated ('forecast') part of the Figure 2 graph in the paper, after which is the comment:

"It follows from their extrapolations for the 21st century that a supercenturial solar minimum will be occuring during the next few decades (fig. 1 and 2). It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one."

Thanks for mentioning Landscheidt , BFTP. I've read up a little on his theories about solar output, sunspots and corresponding global minima. Such a shame he died in 2004. Below is a concise summary of his theories:

http://ezinearticles...imum&id=2146887

Possibly getting a little off-topic, but still related to how this winter pans out IMO.

Edited October 10, 2011 by snowdrifter

[Robbie Garrett]

They saw we are now heading into a Mini-Ice age!! Talking of which, what will have to happen for us to see this?

Edited October 10, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Summer Sun]

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

Sea level pressure.

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

[chionomaniac]

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

Sea level pressure.

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

So temperature is forecast to be 40-60% above normal, 20-40% around normal and 20-40% below normal - for England this winter.

That's clear cut then.

Just noticed the 80-100% above average temp anomaly east of Greenland with below average slp. Hmmm.

Edited October 10, 2011 by chionomaniac

[Summer Sun]

So temperature is forecast to be 40-60% above normal, 20-40% around normal and 20-40% below normal - for England this winter.

That's clear cut then.

The biggest thing with the charts is the Met Office suggest above average temperatures for December to February. All this talk of cold winter and then the Met Office charts come along and suggest a warmer one lol.

Edited October 10, 2011 by Gavin D

[Andy_]

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

Sea level pressure.

http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png

I think that indicates that they're too spineless to make an informed decision... oh how the media has ruined our chances of a decent forecast haha.

However i think the main positive we can take from this is that it is showing a low chance of 'below normal sea level pressure' from the atlantic... so an increased chance of some alternate weather. (And it also shows increased precipitation over northern England (which i can selfishly say))

[chionomaniac]

The biggest thing with the charts is the Met Office suggest above average temperatures for December to February. All this talk of cold winter and then the Met Office charts come along and suggest a warmer one lol.

Yes, with all this recent clamour that we are going to have a cold winter I think that a lot of people could be disappointed. I have yet to see anything firmly suggesting this ( but would normally wait until the end of November)

[Guest]

A lovely 29C down here at the moment with a clear blue sky - the wind has dropped from what it was over the weekend - reckon we will take a trip to the beach this week

Edited October 10, 2011 by mike Meehan

[Robbie Garrett]

A lovely 29C down here at the moment with a clear blue sky - the wind has dropped from what it was over the weekend - reckon we will take a trip to the beach this week

Lucky...

[Evening thunder]

The biggest thing with the charts is the Met Office suggest above average temperatures for December to February. All this talk of cold winter and then the Met Office charts come along and suggest a warmer one lol.

Indeed, they've changed from a little while back when I saw them and they showed a 40-60% chance of below average temps, with the other categories having lower % chances. I don't have any idea what will happen this winter to be honest.

Anyway what use is above average temps in winter? Tends to mean 9-12C, dull and possibly windy. Though not always (e.g day temps in that spell in Feb 2008)

[Isolated Frost]

Will show you average winter temperature since world war II in Durham in one second - but I will tell you an interesting snippet - 2009-10 winter was the 4th coldest since 1945.

[kold weather]

I'm still unsure either way yet but if only going by stats, you'd have to probably favour a milder winter then the 3 we've had lately.

Met office probs for temps isn't exactly strong, though they are favouring above average for now...not strong enough to have huge faith, though note the cooler forecast for SE Europe/Turkey, thats a classic milder winter signal for our shores.

[Andy_]

I'm still unsure either way yet but if only going by stats, you'd have to probably favour a milder winter then the 3 we've had lately.

Met office probs for temps isn't exactly strong, though they are favouring above average for now...not strong enough to have huge faith, though note the cooler forecast for SE Europe/Turkey, thats a classic milder winter signal for our shores.

Don't the met office just predict mild every winter for the UK though? like i don't ever recall them ever saying its going to be colder than average... until they're on their backsides posting a press release saying... omg! its cold who would have thought -.- ... I think there is still a lot of GW bias packed into their modelling.

[Isolated Frost]

1945-46: 4.0c (6.7c/1.2c) 28 air frosts

1946-47: 1.5c (3.7c/-0.7c) 51 air frosts

1947-48: 4.4c (6.9c/1.8c) 16 air frosts

1948-49: 4.7c (7.9c/1.5c) 26 air frosts

1949-50: 4.4c (7.1c/1.6c) 24 air frosts

1950-51: 2.3c (4.9c/-0.4c) 41 air frosts

1951-52: 3.2c (6.1c/0.3c) 38 air frosts

1952-53: 3.8c (6.4c/1.1c) 30 air frosts

1953-54: 3.3c (5.8c/0.8c) 33 air frosts

1954-55: 2.6c (5.2c/0.0c) 38 air frosts

1955-56: 2.3c (5.2c/-0.7c) 47 air frosts

1956-57: 4.6c (7.5c/1.6c) 30 air frosts

1957-58: 3.2c (6.0c/0.3c) 37 air frosts

1958-59: 2.8c (5.5c/0.1c) 44 air frosts

1959-60: 3.7c (6.5c/0.8c) 30 air frosts

1960-61: 4.1c (6.9c/1.2c) 22 air frosts

1961-62: 3.1c (6.1c/0.1c) 36 air frosts

1962-63: -0.1c (2.8c/-3.1c) 79 air frosts

1963-64: 3.3c (6.2c/0.3c) 38 air frosts

1964-65: 2.7c (5.7c/-0.4c) 41 air frosts

1965-66: 2.5c (5.1c/-0.2c) 41 air frosts

1966-67: 4.0c (6.9c/1.1c) 26 air frosts

1967-68: 2.8c (6.0c/-0.5c) 51 air frosts

1968-69: 2.3c (4.9c/-0.4c) 44 air frosts

1969-70: 2.4c (5.2c/-0.4c) 41 air frosts

1970-71: 4.2c (6.9c/1.5c) 24 air frosts

1971-72: 4.3c (6.6c/2.0c) 20 air frosts

1972-73: 4.2c (7.0c/1.4c) 29 air frosts

1973-74: 4.5c (7.4c/1.5c) 24 air frosts

1974-75: 5.3c (8.2c/2.3c) 22 air frosts

1975-76: 4.5c (7.4c/1.6c) 18 air frosts

1976-77: 2.5c (4.8c/-0.1c) 39 air frosts

1977-78: 2.7c (5.3c/0.0c) 40 air frosts

1978-79: 0.9c (3.3c/-1.5c) 55 air frosts

1979-80: 3.7c (5.9c/1.5c) 31 air frosts

1980-81: 4.0c (6.9c/1.0c) 40 air frosts

1981-82: 1.9c (5.0c/-1.3c) 42 air frosts

1982-83: 3.5c (6.3c/0.6c) 37 air frosts

1983-84: 3.5c (6.2c/0.7c) 39 air frosts

1984-85: 2.5c (5.3c/-0.4c) 49 air frosts

1985-86: 2.3c (4.8c/-0.3c) 49 air frosts

1986-87: 3.1c (5.7c/0.4c) 32 air frosts

1987-88: 4.8c (7.6c/1.9c) 21 air frosts

1988-89: 6.3c (9.4c/3.2c) 11 air frosts

1989-90: 5.1c (8.3c/1.9c) 22 air frosts

1990-91: 3.0c (5.9c/0.0c) 44 air frosts

1991-92: 4.3c (8.0c/0.5c) 37 air frosts

1992-93: 4.3c (7.5c/1.1c) 33 air frosts

1993-94: 3.0c (5.8c/0.2c) 42 air frosts

1994-95: 5.0c (8.1c/1.8c) 25 air frosts

1995-96: 2.6c (5.1c/0.1c) 39 air frosts

1996-97: 3.7c (6.5c/0.8c) 35 air frosts

1997-98: 5.7c (8.5c/2.8c) 15 air frosts

1998-99: 4.7c (7.9c/1.5c) 24 air frosts

1999-00: 4.7c (7.6c/1.7c) 25 air frosts

2000-01: 3.7c (6.6c/0.7c) 42 air frosts

2001-02: 4.6c (7.7c/1.5c) 33 air frosts

2002-03: 4.2c (6.7c/1.7c) 30 air frosts

2003-04: 5.1c (8.0c/2.1c) 29 air frosts

2004-05: 4.9c (7.9c/1.9c) 25 air frosts

2005-06: 4.1c (6.9c/1.2c) 28 air frosts

2006-07: 5.5c (8.5c/4.5c) 22 air frosts

2007-08: 4.7c (7.8c/1.5c) 32 air frosts

2008-09: 3.8c (6.6c/1.0c) 35 air frosts

2009-10: 1.8c (4.4c/-0.9c) 52 air frosts

2010-11: 2.9c (5.8c/0.0c) 46 air frosts

Coldest winters since World War II (mean temperature)

1. 1962-63 -0.1c

2. 1979-80 0.9c

3. 1946-47 1.5c

4. 2009-10 1.8c

5. 1981-82 1.9c

Mildest winters since World War II (mean temperature)

1. 1988-89 6.3c

2. 1997-98 5.7c

3. 2006-07 5.5c

4. 1974-75 5.3c

5. 1989-90, 2003-04 5.1c

Most air frosts in a winter since World War II

1. 1962-63 79

2. 1979-80 55

3. 2009-10 52

4. 1946-47, 1967-68 51

5. 1984-85, 1985-86 49

Least air frosts in a winter since World War II

1. 1988-89 11

2. 1997-98 15

3. 1947-48 16

4. 1975-76 18

5. 1971-72 20

--

Hope you enjoy I will do from World War I either tonight or tomorrow.

Edited October 10, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[Guest]

Lucky...

As a matter of interest there have been a lot of light aircraft around here just lately - think they may be from an airfield on the SE side of Narbonne - I know they have a motor glider there - thinking of having a punt down there one day but need to get some weight off.

Generally the weather is good for flying all year round including winter - the only setback is the tramontane, a wind which blows between the Pyrenees and the Massif a bit like the mistral but then you can windsurf on Narbonne Plage.

http://aeroclubnarbo...f_aeroclub.html

sorry, slightly off topic - just trying to enthuse our young aviation enthusiast.

Edited October 10, 2011 by mike Meehan

[Robbie Garrett]

Don't the met office just predict mild every winter for the UK though? like i don't ever recall them ever saying its going to be colder than average... until they're on their backsides posting a press release saying... omg! its cold who would have thought -.- ... I think there is still a lot of GW bias packed into their modelling.

I gather that's why they used to forecast BBQ Summers? I think this year most people are very expectant after last years winter, It may just well turn out mild compared to the last few winters. It may be an unforgettably blunder and freeze the whole of Europe/Northern Hemisphere. It's still too far away, as even the MetOffice are refusing to decline what this winter beholds.

Sounds cool, I'd love to fly to southern France in the club's Cessna 172 or our Piper Warrior. Will cost a few bob though, you ever flown light GA before?

[Shandiman]

The Met Office tend to always go 'safe', but whatever way any prediction goes, someone out there is going to hit the jackpot.

See this morning on BBC Breakfast the presenters holding up the Daily Express who has heralding the next mini Ice Age (once again scaremongering!!!!!)

Nothing out of the ordinary there, take it their resident 'forecaster' is getting carried away!!!!

[Guest]

I gather that's why they used to forecast BBQ Summers? I think this year most people are very expectant after last years winter, It may just well turn out mild compared to the last few winters. It may be an unforgettably blunder and freeze the whole of Europe/Northern Hemisphere. It's still too far away, as even the MetOffice are refusing to decline what this winter beholds.

Sounds cool, I'd love to fly to southern France in the club's Cessna 172 or our Piper Warrior. Will cost a few bob though, you ever flown light GA before?

Shared between 4 - if you come in the summer you won't need much luggage - not so bad and it would be a help if one is instrument rated just in case - you could go via the Millau Bridge and take a look at that - lots of airfields for refueling. A bloody sight more enjoyable than Michael O'Leary's cattle trucks in the skies!

Edited October 10, 2011 by mike Meehan

[sebastiaan1973]

World Climate Services.provided a picture of their forecast (via Meteo Consult on the Dutch Television)

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

World Climate Services.provided a picture of their forecast (via Meteo Consult on the Dutch Television)

Regarding the image you have posted. Are they suggesting our part of Europe being cooler than average or just cool?

[Robbie Garrett]

Shared between 4 - if you come in the summer you won't need much luggage - not so bad and it would be a help if one is instrument rated just in case - you could go via the Millau Bridge and take a look at that - lots of airfields for refueling. A bloody sight more enjoyable than Michael O'Leary's cattle trucks in the skies!

Just boxers then? Well, It's on my to do list - and as you say, someone IR/IMC rated would be a good idea. At the very least, the Bay of Biscay next summer for a week to Storm chase (Robbie style) = watch from the aircraft on the ground. Totally, cattle tracks.

[Guest]

Just boxers then? Well, It's on my to do list - and as you say, someone IR/IMC rated would be a good idea. At the very least, the Bay of Biscay next summer for a week to Storm chase (Robbie style) = watch from the aircraft on the ground. Totally, cattle tracks.

We expect to be back down here from Feb/Mar/April for approx 6 weeks then end of Sept/Oct to the beginning of Nov and if there is a space in the summer lettings we will try to grab a fortnight then - if we coincide with our visits we could meet up possibly for lunch.

[Geordiesnow]

I think there is still a lot of GW bias packed into their modelling.

Maybe so but there is alot of other organisations and most noticetably on this forum who seems to have a global cooling bias which seems to reflect their forecasts for Winter.

[Isolated Frost]

Maybe so but there is alot of other organisations and most noticetably on this forum who seems to have a global cooling bias which seems to reflect their forecasts for Winter.

Yep. PWS and Exacta often forecast extreme weather for publicity, Piers Corbyn because he's an astrofis astrophisi a space fan and thinks that the globe has frozen after 3 cool winters in NW Europe.

Stick to Netweather (and Met-office if they give snippets?!) for your winter needs. No bias, just good forecasting.

Edited October 11, 2011 by IanM
try not to be personal please ;-)

[Guest]

Regarding the image you have posted. Are they suggesting our part of Europe being cooler than average or just cool?

Doen't that mean cool Britannia?