Winter 2011/2012

[weathe20]

The first UK snow story I have seen from sunny average Bristol...check this out from Long range forecaster James Madden, of weather website Exacta Weather

http://www.thisisbri...tail/story.html

Edited October 6, 2011 by weathe20

[Radiating Dendrite]

Madden has been spouting that out for months now.

We shall see!

[Styx]

The first UK snow story I have seen from sunny average Bristol...check this out from Long range forecaster James Madden, of weather website Exacta Weather

http://www.thisisbri...tail/story.html

The most interesting part of that news story for me was a comment from one of the readers, advising that Bristol city council is offering free home insulation for for its residents who are over 60. Not bad!

I am also having a punt that Bristol City Councils stockpiling of grit has got nothing to do with James Madden's predictions ( although it did tie in cleverly with the report ). It may just be for political reasons, they do not want to get caught out unawares and have the ratepayers annoyed, as what happened last winter.

And as far as James Madden is concerned:

He has gone out on such a limb this time around with a prediction of such extreme severity this winter, that if in any way he is proved to be wrong, then his days as a weather forecaster would appear to be over. His blog is extraordinary for its dramatic self assuredness

http://globalcooling...k.blogspot.com/

If anyone has the time, reread all the entries since the start of the year, including a fairly recent one forecasting snow in October. He has a tendency to focus on what he got right, without any follow up posts on predictions that didn't quite eventuate as planned.

He has also manipulated the science IMO when it comes to gulf stream analysis and its changing behaivour, and solar activity.

Also, don't bother to post anything on his blog which runs contrary to his opinions, or to challenge him on his methodology, for it wont be published or responded to ( fair enough, it is his blog, but still, that is just a heads up....)

Edited October 6, 2011 by Styx

[julien764]

Hey

Im French from France, i think this winter will be like 2009-2010 for Europe, but the snow and the cold will be more present, maybe like 62-63

You must read this great blog:

http://www.wundergro...ml?entrynum=199

This guys explain ENSO, NAO, AO, MJO, QBO Jet-Stream forecast and more.

Take care.

Edited October 6, 2011 by julien764

[lizmartin1981]

I for one don't really care when we get snow, aslong as we get some! I would dearly love a repeat of last years snowfall, its crazy when you think its almost 1 year since it started, its flew over

[Guest]

Hey

Im French from France, i think this winter will be like 2009-2010 for Europe, but the snow and the cold will be more present, maybe like 62-63

You must read this great blog:

http://www.wundergro...ml?entrynum=199

This guys explain ENSO, NAO, AO, MJO, QBO Jet-Stream forecast and more.

Take care.

Bien venue,

I am English but writing this from Capestang 34310 where we are staying for a few weeks. I remember the winter of 1962/63 quite well, working in in the Met Office at the time at Heathrow Airport.

I also recall March 2010 starting 7th when we were down here and the road got blocked between Cuxac and Narbonne - it was all very pretty - the snow covered countryside against the backdrop of an azure sky.

Edited October 6, 2011 by mike Meehan

[Mr_Pessimistic]

well, i for one dont need to read any long range forcasts as i know exectly how much snow i will get here in central-east east anglia, same as the last 25 years.. NONE! or very little. EA being the kind of place you would expect to get proper hammered in an easterly or northerly, well every year i read the same posts from people in central and western eareas saying they wont get any, itll all be reserved for the east etc, and in the end, its everywhere else that gets pummeled, whilst we stay bone dry, like the last two winters. i got soooo fed up last year, thinking 'surly it cant happen three years in a row' - but it did! so this year i really am not expecting any again, itll all go north, east, south or west of here. i prey that i am wrong.

[Cheshire Freeze]

My winter forecast will be up within the next week- preliminary thoughts for now.....slightly later than my preliminary thoughts last year which I released in the September.

I could offer some teasers, depends on demand

Edited October 6, 2011 by CreweCold

[johnholmes]

http://www.cairngormmountain.co.uk/webcam/

for those wanting their first UK snow fix!

[Isolated Frost]

http://www.cairngorm...n.co.uk/webcam/

for those wanting their first UK snow fix!

oh goodness - I thought they had had quite a lot of snowfall - but that's amazing, long gone are the summer/september days craving a sleety shower in the highlands - now it's real snow watching time!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The last couple of winters have seen some 'proper' Northern blocking and generally the central belt of the UK - from North Wales across to Norfolk is not favoured for snow in this set-up.

a typical post of last winter, no snow on a line which includes Staffs and Shrops, but generally is true south of that area is favoured, the S midlands, Stratford, Stourbridge etc are in the sweet spot

[Cheshire Freeze]

a typical post of last winter, no snow on a line which includes Staffs and Shrops, but generally is true south of that area is favoured, the S midlands, Stratford, Stourbridge etc are in the sweet spot

A line which also includes south Cheshire which tends to owe itself more to Shropshire and Staffordshire in such scenarios.

[Aaron]

I guess central areas are very poor for snow. Here we get out snow from North Sea showers.. which eventually build up and build it. In the south they get those low pressure systems moving in from the continent (which is why some places in the South these past few winters seem to get plastered by the stuff)

[Robbie Garrett]

Feels cold out there, that's for sure with a Sunset like this

[Weather-history]

A line which also includes south Cheshire which tends to owe itself more to Shropshire and Staffordshire in such scenarios.

That has been the problem, the Cheshire Gap effect could not get going because the angle of wind direction was far too westerly. Snow showers developed in the Liverpool Bay area and were dragged in a ESE direction and not a SE or even SSE direction. How well did south Cheshire do on that Friday night last year when a mass of snow developed last December?

[Costa Del Fal]

a typical post of last winter, no snow on a line which includes Staffs and Shrops, but generally is true south of that area is favoured, the S midlands, Stratford, Stourbridge etc are in the sweet spot

I agree that parts of Staffordshire especially are generally not good for snow. Too far North East for the Cheshire Gap and too far North West for something from the Lincolnshire/Wash way however most parts of it are generally good for at least one of these. Here did do well of some streamers from the Wash last year though it didnt amount to very much. Still, 18th December was a truly unforgettable day! 20-25cm of snow in 6 hours.

Edited October 6, 2011 by Blizzards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I agree that parts of Staffordshire especially are generally not good for snow. Too far North East for the Cheshire Gap and too far North West for something from the Lincolnshire/Wash way however most parts of it are generally good for at least one of these. Here did do well of some streamers from the Wash last year though it didnt amount to very much. Still, 18th December was a truly unforgettable day! 20-25cm of snow in 6 hours.

18th good for me, what about 22nd? u get much then, i got around the same 6 cms

[dhillcrest]

Just to chip in - we had fantastic snow in the Clwydians in Flintshire winter before last (1st week of Jan onwards). Masses of the stuff on a par with anywhere else at the time. We look down on the Cheshire Plain. If I remember, this pushed in largely from the South, but my brain may have been addled by excitement.

Just a lurker by the way, who loves the chit-chat (and rowing) that goes on between you more knowledgeable chaps. Looking forward to the next 5 months of it - 1st thread I look at every day. Thanks to all!!

[summer blizzard]

ao

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

2009

2007

2006

2004

2003

1999

1987

1985

1980

1977

1970

1967

1966

1963

1954

1950

2007 and 1970 were both QBO and AO matches.

[Rich_Clements]

The first UK snow story I have seen from sunny average Bristol...check this out from Long range forecaster James Madden, of weather website Exacta Weather http://www.thisisbri...tail/story.html

That was in the evening post today.

[Costa Del Fal]

18th good for me, what about 22nd? u get much then, i got around the same 6 cms

We didnt do very well after the 18th but we had enough snow anyway Lol. On the 22nd the snow was pivoting pretty much right over our area and delivered practically no snow while just 10 miles North had plenty. That was more unlucky that time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

That has been the problem, the Cheshire Gap effect could not get going because the angle of wind direction was far too westerly. Snow showers developed in the Liverpool Bay area and were dragged in a ESE direction and not a SE or even SSE direction. How well did south Cheshire do on that Friday night last year when a mass of snow developed last December?

Had about 2 inches here, seems we missed the heaviest of that particular band of precipitation but it was the most we saw all winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

CFS latest charts are starting to hint at a blocking pattern to the North similar to last November occuring which ties in with Netweathers long range forecast although the rest of the winter not looking too clever.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

I know its a long way out and that is only the raw data but if you look back at the 2009/2010 CFS forecast it was pretty good (particularly for decembers cold).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_verif/images/201001glbz200.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200910/images/glbz700Mon.gif

likewise december 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201010/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Worth Noting though that these are monthly mean anomaly predictions so a white shading over the relavent area means normal heights so would bring normal winter weather (some mild, some cold, some wet, some dry spells) so we could still get some potent short lived cold spells and its only a deep shading of blue from Icland to the north pole and a deep shading of orange over continental Europe that would completely ruin things if it verifyed.

The other thing to note about those charts is they only contain the raw output and if you look at the skill mask charts of the current output it shows that the expected skill score for the current forecast for November and December is less than 0.3 (a score of 0 is a guesscast so nothing set in stone yet).

The major problem i can see is that the current nina may become too strong and for that reason i still think early winter is our best chance of potent cold, maybe january with a possible lag effect, the jury is still out though according to the latest ENSO diagnostic discussions.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Here are the latest ENSO forcasts of all the Global climate models.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure6.gif

The UKMO GPC outlooks havent been updated for october yet.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

The last couple of winters have seen some 'propuer' Northern blocking and generally the central belt of the UK - from North Wales across to Norfolk is not favoured for snow in this set-up.

if norfolk is not favoured in an easterly, can i ask what setup would norfolk actually be favoured in??

[karyo]

CFS latest charts are starting to hint at a blocking pattern to the North similar to last November occuring which ties in with Netweathers long range forecast although the rest of the winter not looking too clever. [url=http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

According to the CFS forecasts this winter is looking like a less interesting (less cold) version of last winter! I generally trust the CFS forecasts and it has done well in the last couple of winters. However, in my opinion, it's performance has dropped in recent months and autumn so far is a good example of this! Up to early August, it was predicting a below average Septemper for western Europe, including the UK, only to water down it's forecast closer to the month and as we know September ended up well above average. Similarly, it was going for a below average October and it has recently shifted to an above average month. Therefore, I don't trust CFS as much as I was until a few months ago.

As for the ENSO forecasts, La Nina, doesn't look anywhere near as strong as last winter. In fact, El Nino is one of the 2 models that have the most negative index with the other models going for a weak to moderate event.

Karyo