Winter 2011/2012

[North-Easterly Blast]

My advice is simply ignore any 'media forecasts' - they are a complete waste of time - headlines are 'sensationalist' by nature and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

I will be pleasantly surprised if winter 2011/12 starts in similiar veing to winter 2010/11 which was 'exceptional', however, just because we have seen three winters with notable cold and snowy weather (but not throughout it has to be said - last winter saw a very mild Feb and preety average fairly snowless Jan), doesn't mean we are guaranteed a mild wet winter. Look at out last five summers, all have returned very near or below average CET's with no very warmth month. Mind you we are overdue a notably wet winter, not really had one since 2004/2005, instead we have some very dry months and lengthy dry spells in the main - had we not endured the wet summers, we would be currently under a very lengthy dry spell indeed.

Summers 2009 and 2010 were both slightly above average. Summer 2008 was about average. Only 2011 was a proper below average summer. June and July 2010 were both above average, June and August 2009 were above average. So the last five summers have realistically been mixed, fairly average affairs all put together, although summers like 2007 have been very wet at times.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Regarding the 11 year period 1976-1987, I was under the impression (I wasn't born until 1985, so excuse my ignorance lol) that winters 1979-1980 & 1980-1981 were nothing really special and the same might have applied in many areas for the winters 1982-1983 & 1983-1984, although I can appreciate that they may have had their moments. In fact I think winter 1990-1991 would have been much better than those winters and considering it was only 4 years after winter 1986-1987 I consider it as part of the same grouping of cold winters as those of the late 70s and 80s. The point being that because cold winters seem to come in groups ( This doesn't garantee we'll get one this year though) the chances are probably more likely than they were in the late 90s-late 00s.

Edited September 28, 2011 by WALSALL SNOW

[Summer Sun]

Well, talk about Positive Weather Solutions taking a huge step back, only last week they were quoted in national news papers with James Madden in saying October will see the start of winter, and now Jonathan Powell say's this,

There would still appear to be little indication of a significant and sustained Arctic blast during October as headlined in some of the national press over the last few weeks.

This guy is for ever-changing his story's.

http://www.positiveweath...ns.co.uk/PWS-Comment.php

Edited September 28, 2011 by Gav

[trisnow]

Well, talk about Positive Weather Solutions taking a huge step back, only last week they were quoted in national news papers with James Madden in saying October will see the start of winter, and now Jonathan Powell say's this,

There would still appear to be little indication of a significant and sustained Arctic blast during October as headlined in some of the national press over the last few weeks.

This guy is for ever-changing his story's.

http://www.positiveweath...ns.co.uk/PWS-Comment.php

And then he wonders why people on this forum don't take him seriously!!!!

The guy's basically making a living out of providing sensationalist headlines to the papers. Maybe it's time somebody kept track of all these comments they publish on the website to be able to look back retrospectively and see how often they change their tune once they see what is actually gonna happen.

Also, I've never understood the point of the attractive blonde on their front page? If they wanna be taken seriously surely not relying on breasts is the way to go. Maybe incorporate something weather related like a warm front into their logo rather than an "ample titalating front".

Seriously, organisations like this really left trouser leg me off.

ALL OF THIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND NOTHING TO DO WITH NETWEATHER

Rant over.

Edited September 28, 2011 by trisnow

[trisnow]

Anyone find anymore like this?

Read Jonathons quotes,

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html

Then read this

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2010/summer.html

See his quotes "modified" (back-tracking) so either the Daily Mail misquoted him which he should sue for - or he conveniently changed his tune.

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/Clarification-on-Summer-2010-Forecast-.php

Grrrrrr

[Isolated Frost]

Perfect winter's day:

2100: Clearing skies, wind from the N, slight breeze, 3C

0000: Dark and starry, wind from the NNE, a touch of wind, 1C

0300: Visible frost, some hefty convective showers building in the North Sea as LP system moves from the Baltic towards Britain, wind from the NE, 0C

0600: Convective showers make land and a visible line of snow associated with the low attract even heavier convective showers, wind from the ENE, -1C

0900: Extremely heavy snow showers, a slight breeze but near vertical snow, the clouds coloured a deep, fragrant orange, wind from the ENE, -1C

1200: Snow band pushes through, nearly half a foot deposited from convective showers and the low pressure, clearing skies slowly, wind from the E, 0C

1800: After a clearer day, snow showers begin to build at night, convection everywhere, a hot chocolate, blanket and radar at the ready, -2C

0900: SNOW!

[trisnow]

Perfect winter's day:

2100: Clearing skies, wind from the N, slight breeze, 3C

0000: Dark and starry, wind from the NNE, a touch of wind, 1C

0300: Visible frost, some hefty convective showers building in the North Sea as LP system moves from the Baltic towards Britain, wind from the NE, 0C

0600: Convective showers make land and a visible line of snow associated with the low attract even heavier convective showers, wind from the ENE, -1C

0900: Extremely heavy snow showers, a slight breeze but near vertical snow, the clouds coloured a deep, fragrant orange, wind from the ENE, -1C

1200: Snow band pushes through, nearly half a foot deposited from convective showers and the low pressure, clearing skies slowly, wind from the E, 0C

1800: After a clearer day, snow showers begin to build at night, convection everywhere, a hot chocolate, blanket and radar at the ready, -2C

0900: SNOW!

That would be complete bliss for me!

God I hope we get another good one. Beginning to think more and more we won't though but hope that's wrong!

[chionomaniac]

Seems like they could do with a copywriter going by their top story!

Also I love the fact that the PWS comment by the owner of PWS has a disclaimer that the opinion may not be that of PWS!!

[trisnow]

Seems like they could do with a copywriter going by their top story!

Also I love the fact that the PWS comment by the owner of PWS has a disclaimer that the opinion may not be that of PWS!!

Was literally just about to say that.

[Aaron]

Perfect winter's day:

2100: Clearing skies, wind from the N, slight breeze, 3C

0000: Dark and starry, wind from the NNE, a touch of wind, 1C

0300: Visible frost, some hefty convective showers building in the North Sea as LP system moves from the Baltic towards Britain, wind from the NE, 0C

0600: Convective showers make land and a visible line of snow associated with the low attract even heavier convective showers, wind from the ENE, -1C

0900: Extremely heavy snow showers, a slight breeze but near vertical snow, the clouds coloured a deep, fragrant orange, wind from the ENE, -1C

1200: Snow band pushes through, nearly half a foot deposited from convective showers and the low pressure, clearing skies slowly, wind from the E, 0C

1800: After a clearer day, snow showers begin to build at night, convection everywhere, a hot chocolate, blanket and radar at the ready, -2C

0900: SNOW!

I'd take this, but make the temperatures 10 degrees colder!

[Isolated Frost]

Oh no no, Aaron, the marginality of it all MAKES the event!

[EML Network]

I can really feel the excitement beginning to build on here, whatever happens this winter, it's nice to know we all have a place to eithe have a good old rant, or post some lush piccy's of 6 ft drifts, (if only)

Whatever happens I hope everyone enjoys the winter and let's just pray that it's a bit more exciting than the first 9 months of 2011 has been

[Robbie Garrett]

Calm before the storm *The Current weather*

[summer blizzard]

Anyone find anymore like this?

Read Jonathons quotes,

http://www.dailymail...-Solutions.html

Then read this

http://www.metoffice...010/summer.html

See his quotes "modified" (back-tracking) so either the Daily Mail misquoted him which he should sue for - or he conveniently changed his tune.

http://www.positivew...0-Forecast-.php

Grrrrrr

The Daily Mail misquotes everbody, i honestly do not know why you even bothered to read it, it is by far the worst newspaper in England.

Summers 2009 and 2010 were both slightly above average. Summer 2008 was about average. Only 2011 was a proper below average summer. June and July 2010 were both above average, June and August 2009 were above average. So the last five summers have realistically been mixed, fairly average affairs all put together, although summers like 2007 have been very wet at times.

Against the 1971-2000 average we have...

2007: 0.37C below average

2008: 0.17C below average

2009: 0.23C above average

2010: 0.27C above average

2011: 0.8C below average

Essentially you could say that each summer from 2007-2010 was an improvement in terms of temerature but close to average overall. That said, every summer since 2004 has had at least one below average month.

[ZONE 51]

Im staying with - december 2011-widespread cold with heavy snowfalls from n/ne, frosts, high pressure.

and why do i not change my mind as we edge nearer? because the wider signals indicate this, although i could get it wrong, but thats what i see at this point, but its not certain as we are only in september and a long way to go for forecasting winter, thats why im not releasing a forecast yet,and because its a difficult one as the signals are mixed, although more pointers towards a quite altantic and a cold november, the high pressure(in december)that i am predicting, could shift a certain amounts of miles out my forecast range, and this would bring snowfall not just to ne/east/se but inland to the west, although weaker fronts and developing troughs are possible in the west giving snowfall to.

When i launch my forecast it wont be a lots of infomation to read, but just dry or wet or cold or mild, and also the reasons and factors will be included to! pin pointing snowfall to a region in a lrf is not as possible as we would like! but giving a synoptic prediction can give us ideas of where ppn could fall.

Edited September 29, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[jam]

Is it me or does this not make any sense at all?

Jim Dale, a senior risk meteorologist at forecasters British Weather Services, said Sheffielders should ‘plan ahead for the worst’ by stocking up on rock salt to grit icy paths and roads, as well as checking their cars are prepared for the winter.

He said the cold weather is ‘likely’ to return, but added: “We’re not saying there’ll be a repeat of January 2010 or December 2010. What we are saying is that we’ve not really got out of the situation that brought us those two events – a very long, Atlantic-type summer, with weather coming from the west rather than the east. People should plan ahead for the worst.”

Jim said: “Once out of the Indian summer you really are bearing down on winter. In the sunshine of this week, you’ve got time to go and buy a bag of salt. It’ll probably be cheaper, you can get it in the garage ready to spread it around.

“You should also make sure your car has got the right equipment, such as blankets, food and water, a torch and a spade, and prepare the garden by stowing away pot plants.

“It’s about preparing and planning. We think about things at the last second, but they’re only issues cities around the world that experience severe weather every year have to deal with.”

Jim said the cycle of recent freezing winters is down to a series of complex global oceanic and meteorological patterns.

“We’re still in that block where the threat is there. Nothing’s changed as far as that is concerned,” he added.

The hot weather is being caused by a high pressure front bringing in southerly winds from Africa, which is set to dictate the weather for at least the next week.

Jim said: “By Friday and Saturday, Sheffield might be seeing 26 or 27C, which is nine to 11 degrees above average. It’s fairly exceptional. The last time it was like this was 2006. If the temperatures were below average we’d be in blizzards and worse. Last December the deviation from the seasonal average was five degrees lower than it should have been.”

[Radiating Dendrite]

Is it me or does this not make any sense at all?

Jim Dale, a senior risk meteorologist at forecasters British Weather Services, said Sheffielders should ‘plan ahead for the worst’ by stocking up on rock salt to grit icy paths and roads, as well as checking their cars are prepared for the winter.

He said the cold weather is ‘likely’ to return, but added: “We’re not saying there’ll be a repeat of January 2010 or December 2010. What we are saying is that we’ve not really got out of the situation that brought us those two events – a very long, Atlantic-type summer, with weather coming from the west rather than the east. People should plan ahead for the worst.”

Jim said: “Once out of the Indian summer you really are bearing down on winter. In the sunshine of this week, you’ve got time to go and buy a bag of salt. It’ll probably be cheaper, you can get it in the garage ready to spread it around.

“You should also make sure your car has got the right equipment, such as blankets, food and water, a torch and a spade, and prepare the garden by stowing away pot plants.

“It’s about preparing and planning. We think about things at the last second, but they’re only issues cities around the world that experience severe weather every year have to deal with.”

Jim said the cycle of recent freezing winters is down to a series of complex global oceanic and meteorological patterns.

“We’re still in that block where the threat is there. Nothing’s changed as far as that is concerned,” he added.

The hot weather is being caused by a high pressure front bringing in southerly winds from Africa, which is set to dictate the weather for at least the next week.

Jim said: “By Friday and Saturday, Sheffield might be seeing 26 or 27C, which is nine to 11 degrees above average. It’s fairly exceptional. The last time it was like this was 2006. If the temperatures were below average we’d be in blizzards and worse. Last December the deviation from the seasonal average was five degrees lower than it should have been.”

Double dutch to me.

He just contradicts himself.

Is it possible for any tom, dick and harry to establish a "weather company" when they know little about the subject?

[P-M]

Double dutch to me.

He just contradicts himself.

Is it possible for any tom, dick and harry to establish a "weather company" when they know little about the subject?

I think he means that if temperatures were 11degrees below average then we would be seeing blizzards etc (Still a confusing article IMO)

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think he means that if temperatures were 11degrees below average then we would be seeing blizzards etc (Still a confusing article IMO)

But he is wrong there too.

If the average max is around 16c at this time of the year then 10c below would result in a 6c max.

That would result in rain, not blizzards!

[shedhead]

Double dutch to me.

He just contradicts himself.

Is it possible for any tom, dick and harry to establish a "weather company" when they know little about the subject?

I assume it might well be, but British Weather Services have been established since 1987, indeed I might well be right in saying they were either the first or one of the very first independent firms to set up in the UK. Whilst I agree the article is a little confusing, to be fair to Dale it wouldn't be the first time someone has been misquoted/misrepresented and it surely won't be the last. In my experience BWS are not ones to either sensationalise events or court the limelight and I assume the very fact they have existed for almost 25 yrs must mean they are both professional and very much doing something right.

[P-M]

But he is wrong there too.

If the average max is around 16c at this time of the year then 10c below would result in a 6c max.

That would result in rain, not blizzards!

lol Aye I didn't think about that! As said - confusing article.

[Gavin P]

I suspect what Jim is getting at is that the pattern shift that we've all flagged on here as taking place since 2007/2008 is still very much in place. I.E. generally cool summers and cold winters. Which doesn't mean that the coming winter WILL be cold, but does mean the risk of another negative NAO/AO winter is greater than in the 90's or the early 00's.

[jam]

But it was weather from the East not West that bought our severest weather

[shedhead]

Well they appear to be available on the end of a phone, or e-mail. Perhaps those who can find time to critisise can also find time to ring or mail them and ask for clarification.

[19jacobob93]

But he is wrong there too.

If the average max is around 16c at this time of the year then 10c below would result in a 6c max.

That would result in rain, not blizzards!

He's wrong with a few things! He states that our weather is coming from the west rather than the east, and that this was the cause of last year's cold weather, when it's actually the exact opposite! And no matter how much September is below average, lets face it we will never see blizzards! I guess he's right about one thing though, this summer being westerly dominated.