Winter 2011/2012

[P-M]

Title of this thread

Winter 2011/2012

not meaning to be a stick in the mud but.......

[Radiating Dendrite]

Title of this thread

Winter 2011/2012

not meaning to be a stick in the mud but.......

Yeah, October is not even a winter month.

I enjoy reading the posts that people have put on here, but maybe an "October Snowfall" thread on the historical chat section may be a better place for this.

Back to winter, I think it will be similar to last season, though I expect a few more cold spells after December this time round and a potent Easterly at some point!

[P-M]

Yeah, October is not even a winter month.

I enjoy reading the posts that people have put on here, but maybe an "October Snowfall" thread on the historical chat section may be a better place for this.

Back to winter, I think it will be similar to last season, though I expect a few more cold spells after December this time round and a potent Easterly at some point!

Well I will settle for an easterlie any day of the week as it usually dumps a load of snow across the NE but I do hope the longevity and severity is toned down somewhat! (IMBY I know)...

Edited September 21, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[summer blizzard]

A few factiods for the coming winter.

Only 3 summers other than 2011 have seen NAO values in June and July below -1, these were 2008, 2009 and 1958.

August saw the 3rd most negative AO value on record, of the 8 most negative August AO values we saw the following winter AO values..

1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb...

1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb...

2011.....-1.063.....-???

1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan...

1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec...

1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb...

1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb...

Given that a strong -AO is correlated to a cold winter month in the UK, i would say that we have a very good sign.

[Radiating Dendrite]

A few factiods for the coming winter.

Only 3 summers other than 2011 have seen NAO values in June and July below -1, these were 2008, 2009 and 1958.

August saw the 3rd most negative AO value on record, of the 8 most negative August AO values we saw the following winter AO values..

1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb...

1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb...

2011.....-1.063.....-???

1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan...

1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec...

1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb...

1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb...

Given that a strong -AO is correlated to a cold winter month in the UK, i would say that we have a very good sign.

Yep.

As has been said before, something switched in the atmosphere 3 years ago.

I would be amazed if we did not have at least one severe cold spell during winter.

[johnholmes]

Title of this thread

Winter 2011/2012

not meaning to be a stick in the mud but.......

I gave up some time ago attempting to get posters to stick to the title

[cyclonic happiness]

I gave up some time ago attempting to get posters to stick to the title

So what happens when all of the snow and cold comes before the start of winter (21st December) like it did last year?

IMO winter starts when it gets cold, dark, and frosty, whether it be october or december

[Stormyking]

Watching snow videos is getting more and more excited for this winter I really hope it will be a snowy winter, as this time I want to actually make a succesful snowman unlike last year which got ran over by a car

[Isolated Frost]

Watching snow videos is getting more and more excited for this winter I really hope it will be a snowy winter, as this time I want to actually make a succesful snowman unlike last year which got ran over by a car

Snowman tip: Build snowmen in gardens, not driveways...

[Stormyking]

Snowman tip: Build snowmen in gardens, not driveways...

Well where I live theres a massive Car park at the front of my house and is perfect snow ball fights and building Snowmans, not many cars are parked in there as its a pretty expensive car park to park in. We done a snowman last year well tried and the car turned into the car park to go through the otherside onto the other road, and the car run over our snow man,and the matey that was driving looked at us and laughed

After that we build a mini Snow grave yard thing for the bits of snow that was originally our snowman and put RIP haha

Anyways this year if it snows we are going to build one somewhere else

Here is too a Snow winter 2011-2012

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The solar/lunar signal has and still supports a cold winter ahead. I expect 'extreme' will be headline again. What will be prominent again is a jetsream well south again which will be the bedrock of cold and snow. The perturbation cycle is maintaining a prevalent -ve NAO state and with oceans in cool state widespread NH cold is likely.

BFTP

[19jacobob93]

The solar/lunar signal has and still supports a cold winter ahead. I expect 'extreme' will be headline again. What will be prominent again is a jetsream well south again which will be the bedrock of cold and snow. The perturbation cycle is maintaining a prevalent -ve NAO state and with oceans in cool state widespread NH cold is likely.

BFTP

Exactly what I wanted to hear!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

So what happens when all of the snow and cold comes before the start of winter (21st December) like it did last year?

IMO winter starts when it gets cold, dark, and frosty, whether it be october or december

21 Dec? winter starts way before then anyway, suppose last year (southern UK) it started 24th Nov

[Aaron]

In Sweden, I believe, winter is defined when the average daily temperature (or average daily maximum temperature) first falls below freezing.

Edited September 21, 2011 by Aaron

[Eskimo]

In Sweden, I believe, winter is defined when the average daily temperature (or average daily maximum temperature) first falls below freezing.

What happens if it doesn't?

P.S. I know that will never happen but still...

[Isolated Frost]

That Swedish one is bizarre. What if you get a max of 1C on the 3rd of April, one of 0C on the 4th, and one of 3C on the 5th - one day winter? No thanks haha!

[Crepuscular Ray]

The solar/lunar signal has and still supports a cold winter ahead. I expect 'extreme' will be headline again. What will be prominent again is a jetsream well south again which will be the bedrock of cold and snow. The perturbation cycle is maintaining a prevalent -ve NAO state and with oceans in cool state widespread NH cold is likely.

BFTP

What is the Sun/Moon signal and in what way is it indicating anything different from the last 3.9 billion years? I don't dispute that if the jetstream stays to the south it will imply another colder-than-recent winter, but could you add links to your source for the Sun/Moon signal and how it affects winter weather in the NH please. Thank you.

[Aaron]

That Swedish one is bizarre. What if you get a max of 1C on the 3rd of April, one of 0C on the 4th, and one of 3C on the 5th - one day winter? No thanks haha!

Swedish meteorologists define the beginning of spring as the first occasion on which the average daytime temperature exceeds zero degrees Celsius for seven consecutive days.

What happens if it doesn't?

P.S. I know that will never happen but still...

Actually, I believe my statement above applies to winter, too. Meaning it has to be seven consecutive days. So in the mild winter of 2007 - 2008 in Sweden, winter never arrived!

Edited September 21, 2011 by Aaron

[bobbydog]

What is the Sun/Moon signal and in what way is it indicating anything different from the last 3.9 billion years? I don't dispute that if the jetstream stays to the south it will imply another colder-than-recent winter, but could you add links to your source for the Sun/Moon signal and how it affects winter weather in the NH please. Thank you.

i assume the sun 'signal' is the low solar output of the current cycle, however, i too would like to know what the moon has got do do with anything, other than affecting tides. someone posted a youtube video of piers corbyn earlier and he mentioned this sun/moon thing. unfortunately, i couldnt handle watching him for more than about 1&1/2 minutes so i never got his explanation.

[Evening thunder]

It may have been the first in decades for your location however i also saw snow in October 2000, there was also a NW last October which produced snow over northern Britain.

That's true I was forgetting some events like the one you mention, and I have heard of snow on Dartmoor in 2003 like has also been mentioned. I was just indicating it is quite rare to get much for the south at least. Oct 2008 didn't actually give any snow here, just this at least as notable event!: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/oct2008/

There does seem to be some good signs/suggestions about for this winter. Of course I don't know what will happen and don't think anyone can predict with any real certainty, but the signs look nice.

I would also be interested in hearing what any 'lunar' signal is and what could be happening to change it from the past X amount of years? Of course there is definitely a solar signal and it is interesting.

[ZONE 51]

Yep.

As has been said before, something switched in the atmosphere 3 years ago.

I would be amazed if we did not have at least one severe cold spell during winter.

i actually think that this is the cold phase and its going nowhere fast, weather patterns on a hole have changed and its not gone unnoticed, i expect a high chance of one big deep long widespread snowy freeze to take hold and this being earlier than later in winter, although i think its going to start in november.

[scotty_boy_winter]

I have never seen bftp back up anything he says with science, links, charts etc. I don't think he actually understands the science of it and has built up a reputation by telling people what they want to hear and remembering key terminology from googel articles.

I could be wring bftp bit now is the chance to show us all your not all talk and you can back things up with science??

Well see, if you don't your reputation will take a hit

What is the Sun/Moon signal and in what way is it indicating anything different from the last 3.9 billion years? I don't dispute that if the jetstream stays to the south it will imply another colder-than-recent winter, but could you add links to your source for the Sun/Moon signal and how it affects winter weather in the NH please. Thank you.

[ZONE 51]

Are you talking about BFTP? because he is well respected on here and he does show data/charts and i have learnt alot myself from his posts, how many posts have you seen of his in the last year? in my books no one needs to display information on each post they make to give evidence on what they are talking about, if members ask someone for the data or anything they want to know then ask directly by reply and giving them some time then they would im sure be happy to show anything based on what they are talking about. thats the best way and friendly way to do it on forum rather than picking out posts and having a slight dig at posters.

Edited September 22, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[UV-RAY]

I have never seen bftp back up anything he says with science, links, charts etc. I don't think he actually understands the science of it and has built up a reputation by telling people what they want to hear and remembering key terminology from googel articles.

I could be wring bftp bit now is the chance to show us all your not all talk and you can back things up with science??

Well see, if you don't your reputation will take a hit

I have never seen bftp back up anything he says with science, links, charts etc. I don't think he actually understands the science of it and has built up a reputation by telling people what they want to hear and remembering key terminology from googel articles.

I could be wring bftp bit now is the chance to show us all your not all talk and you can back things up with science??

Well see, if you don't your reputation will take a hit

Others post LRF with scientific reasoning and facts, but then see the weather do exactly the opposite too what they forecast. Shades of 76 spring to mind.

[Isolated Frost]

Listen guys, BFTP always (always) gives us snippets of what he thinks. The full thing comes out on his winter forecast - don't doubt him yet.