Winter 2011/2012

[A Winter's Tale]

I've been looking at Netweather's long range 850pha forecast and the end of the run looks promising (although it will change).

I can't wait for the first frost and I hope it will be soon. Has anyone got any ideas about when -5C 850Pha temperatures may be close to the UK?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I do hope winter 11-12 will be another cold one. What i hope for more though this winter is that I see a true blizzard for the first time in nearly 21 years. With massive drifts to boot!

[19jacobob93]

it'll be a cold one, i said that last year. And i was right.

I think everyone went for a cold one last year, for the same reason they are doing this year! a] Wishful thinking, and b] it's hard to imagine a mild winter after these past few years!

I'm still going for another cold one though!

Edited September 18, 2011 by 19jacobob93

[virtualsphere]

I've heard it mentioned and I believe the CET records back it up that cold winters ( or at least ones with potent cold and/or snowy spells within them) do generaly seem to come in long batches lasting up to a decade or more) this should give us all a bit of confidence for next winter. However I don't want to put a downer on anybodys hopes, but it seems that even in those periods of cold and snowy winters in the past, there were the odd mild dominated winters thrown in, like the mildest winter yet recorded 1685-1686. A more relatively recent example (correct me if i'm wrong) might be 1979-1980. So i'd thought i'd just throw that out there for people to think about.

Yes, that's a good point. The coldest winter on record I believe is 1683/4, and just two years later 1685/6 was one of the warmest on record. These were during the Maunder Minimum, so given the theory that solar activity has an effect on our weather patterns in the UK, and that we have recently experienced some colder winters coinciding with the recent reduction in sunspot activity, if this is true there is a chance that some very warm weather would be possible as well as cold. Last winter could be an example, which featured one of the coldest winter months followed just two months later by a very warm one.

If sunspot reduction is somehow related to mid-latitude blocking, that could explain the occurance of extreme temperatures at either end of the scale depending on where it sets up, and reduce the frequency of zonal weather. There are relatively few mild winters before 1750 in the series though, which either goes against this theory or suggests that any block bringing the UK warm temperatures didn't last for the whole winter.

The interesting feature of the recent cold winters has been the frequency of northerlies rather than easterlies, and also how early in the season the cold weather occurs. I'd be surprised if this pattern could continue for another year, but certainly spring, summer and autumn weather seem to have come 'early' this year so I wouldn't want to bet against it.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'd also like to add that i'm under the impression that blizzards were a fairly common weather feature in lowland britain before 1992. Can and will they make a come back?

[cyclonic happiness]

I'd also like to add that i'm under the impression that blizzards were a fairly common weather feature in lowland britain before 1992. Can and will they make a come back?

They'll make a come back for sure!

The one thing that's been missing from lowland Britain over the past 3-4 years is precipitation, be it rain or snow, all we seem to get is dryness.

Last 3 winters, the cold has been plenty enough for snow, but the precipitation failed to appear.

Last winter here was especially heartbreaking for this part of the Midlands, as we sat and watched snow event after snow event miss us by a few miles.

This trent has continued through all of the spring and summer, and if you look at the palces that got the most snow this winter, they tie in nicely with the places that got the most rain this summer!

Here it's been the same....no snow in winter..........no rain in spring/summer.

The winter will definately be a cold one, but probably a dry one, as, until this weird dry pattern breaks for this part of the world, I can't see any change from the past few years.

Edited September 18, 2011 by cyclonic happiness

[damianslaw]

I certainly think Nov is more winter than Feb, a darker month, weaker sun, and winter build up on model thread etc, key signs and what to look for

Feb is lighter, higher and stronger sun, and lots of ppl starting to think about spring

Whilst November is a much darker and generally much gloomier month than Feb with low cloud, low light, mist and fog very slow to burn and a weak sun, it is on average much milder than February. Indeed Nov on average is milder than March. Recent Novembers have been a mixed bag, only the latter part of Nov 08 and 10 felt like true winter. Nov 09 was very much an autumnal month - very mild indeed - a feature many forget. Last November's late cold spell was exceptional in its severity and very much an anomaly.

I do see where you are coming from though - November often feels like a 'winter' month even though average temperatures put it firmly in the autumn season. The switch in the feel of things when the clocks go back is very notable, psycologically 'winter' arrives.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Hi cyclonic happiness i'm also in the midlands, some miles north west, north of Walsall. I know what you mean about last December although I think we might of done a bit better than your region. We got a good dumping on the 22nd of around 7-8 inches if i remember rightly. The most we've had since Nov 96 if memory serves me right. It could have been the most since Feb 91 though obviously nowhere near.

[ZONE 51]

http://iri.columbia..../technical.html

with some chance for further strengthening during the coming couple of months. By the same token, there is some possibility for the cool conditions to weaken and return to cool-neutral ENSO conditions, but this now seen as having a slightly lower probability.

[ZONE 51]

El-Nino/La-Nina/PDO/MJO/NAO

anyone that would like to learn about these and anything else to do with the weather!

then this is a very good link-http://www.weatherex...-o-La-Ni-a.html

-

-

http://ukweather.wor.../winter-201011/

November:

Based on the above factors. November is likely to be a below average month with heavy snowfalls affecting the United Kingdom. Widespread, deep accumulations are likely, particularly from the middle of the month onwards.

Edited September 18, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

very interesting and i agree with that forecast, all what i would say is in there, and i look foward to his updates.

[Robbie Garrett]

Ouch if that last one comes off, that's -1.6 to -1.8C below average.

[bobbydog]

we are in for a severe winter but the met office are keeping it a secret.... shhh....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8237397/Met-Office-kept-winter-forecast-secret-from-public.html

how ridiculous is that?

they get criticised for their LRF's, then slated for not doing them!!

they can't win!!!

[MeteoF]

Anyone know if this site has any credibility? Good read if nothing else!! http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

[Updraft]

MeteoF that is a very interesting read. How good these people are I don't know but interesting nonetheless.

[Costa Del Fal]

Ouch if that last one comes off, that's -1.6 to -1.8C below average.

-1.8c? The graph is not showing average temperatures but the strength of La Nina. Not sure if the C you added there was by accident but just thought id point out that its not showing temperature. A stronger La Nina the less cold our winter is likely to be im aware. A weak to moderate La Nina can certainly be very beneficial to us if all plays ball.

[Met4Cast]

Anyone know if this site has any credibility? Good read if nothing else!! http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

None whatsoever.

[karyo]

-1.8c? The graph is not showing average temperatures but the strength of La Nina. Not sure if the C you added there was by accident but just thought id point out that its not showing temperature. A stronger La Nina the less cold our winter is likely to be im aware. A weak to moderate La Nina can certainly be very beneficial to us if all plays ball.

Agreed! And just to add that only some of the ensembles hit the -1.6 mark with the mean around -0.8 which is not too bad! Especially if you consider that the CFS has been very keen the keenest to bring a strong La Nina than other models.

Karyo

[johnholmes]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

this is the link to the NASA ENSO site where the correct terminology for SST departures is shown!

Edited September 19, 2011 by johnholmes

[Eabie]

I have no thoughts on what this winter will bring to the UK -- but I will say I'm looking forward to it. The summer's been nice enough, though a bit cool and fairly uneventful in terms of weather, with the heaviest rainfalls missing us for the most part. I do hope that there will be some bona fide snowstorms here in Coventry (even though it can be a nightmare getting to work). Last winter we got only a bit of snow accumulation in December, nothing compared to other areas of the country, and it still caused havoc.

Edited September 19, 2011 by Eabie

[Chris D]

I find this hard to believe, because nobody that I read anywhere - and there are many respected US forecasters that I follow - predicted the severity of the NW Europe cold spell of late November to late December.

If the METO 'super computers' had seen the possibility of it I'm sure it would have been thrust into the public domain.

Well longer term (2+ months out), the MO might have suspected a cold winter, but were not so confident since they only told the government in October. I do remember that their medium term 15-30 day forecast did mention the possibility of a very cold and snowy spell of weather also in October. So although they probably didn't know about it like 3 months out, they did highlight very clearly the possibility of very cold weather in November for quite a long period of time.

Edit: Maybe more of a reply to the post below;

we are in for a severe winter but the met office are keeping it a secret.... shhh....

http://www.telegraph...rom-public.html

how ridiculous is that?

they get criticised for their LRF's, then slated for not doing them!!

they can't win!!!

Edited September 19, 2011 by chris93

[Weather-history]

I seemed to recall Joe B astardi talking about this in his European blog with the models picking up on the exceptionalness of the late November-early December period.

[Guest]

I seemed to recall Joe B astardi talking about this in his European blog with the models picking up on the exceptionalness of the late November-early December period.

You know I miss his rants

[Aaron]

I think everyone went for a cold one last year, for the same reason they are doing this year! a] Wishful thinking, and b] it's hard to imagine a mild winter after these past few years!

I'm still going for another cold one though!

Haha, that's the point, after these past few cold, snowy winters, an 'average' winter would seem out of place!

[AderynCoch]

I seemed to recall Joe B astardi talking about this in his European blog with the models picking up on the exceptionalness of the late November-early December period.

Funny, I seem to remember him in the run-up saying he couldn't see anything special on the cards for Europe (or our corner of Europe at least).