Winter 2011/2012

[Radiating Dendrite]

its in the research section, here:

http://www.metoffice...al/gpc-outlooks

Those charts would seem to indicate Northern Blocking through winter with a big fat Greeny High!

[Guest]

here are the Meto long range probability charts for europe over winter.

there have been claims in the press lately that the meto knew we were in for a cold winter but failed to tell the public. ironically after the media made a mockery of the meto LRF's. apparently, these charts are what the media based their story on, which turned out to be accurate.

on that basis, if the meto get it right again, they believe europe and the UK will have a higher probability of another cold winter

please note, the colours relate to probability in % not to temperature

Don't give much away do they; - 0.1 is less than than normal and so is -3 if we are being pedantic, though I suppose they would start to consider it about say, -0.5C.

[bobbydog]

Don't give much away do they; - 0.1 is less than than normal and so is -3 if we are being pedantic, though I suppose they would start to consider it about say, -0.5C.

they are a bit conservative but they do lean towards a colder winter. also they do go out to 5 months so at this stage they are just speculation

[Lincs Observation]

And so it starts.......

Forecasters warn of snow in October

Dig out your hat and scarf and get ready for an early winter; forecasters are predicting that snow will fall in Britain as early as next month.

Andrew Milligan, PA

Temperatures will fall sharply over the coming months and are forecast to drop below average for the time of year.

Long-range forecasters at Exacta Weather have also said that we should brace ourselves for another brutal winter from December through to February.

James Madden said: "As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.

"I expect December, January, and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to ­January across many parts of the UK."

Mr Madden added that the UK will face ­"prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop".

The Met Office also warned that we should expect colder-than-average nights at the beginning of October, which would bring with them the chance of overnight frosts. The Midlands and the South-east are expected to bear the brunt of the cold snap.

Heavy snowfall and freezing conditions have caused chaos across Britain for the last two winters and it looks like we can expect more of the same this time round.

[bobbydog]

the 'forecasters' in question are james madden aka 'weathergeek' who started his one-man cold ramping campaign on the daily mail forums!!

he could turn out to be right, and given his 'forecast', most people here would probably hope he is. however, he cherry-picks all the conditions required for a cold winter, lumps them all together and comes up with the next ice-age!!

this bloke wants to be the next piers corbyn and now has the press taking him seriously!!

[Eabie]

I have to say, I seriously doubt there'll be significant snow next month for most of the UK... I'm from Canada, and we rarely get anything more than a centimetre of snow in October, and it usually melts.

[Evening thunder]

I have to say, I seriously doubt there'll be significant snow next month for most of the UK... I'm from Canada, and we rarely get anything more than a centimetre of snow in October, and it usually melts.

I agree with you there - in 2008 parts of the midlands and the SE had snow at the end of October, but that was the first lying low level October snow for many decades I think. It's just more newspaper hype and story making, when in reality it would probably be on high ground and/or localised if we got a cold October.

[sundog]

The forecast for snow in October was in the papers here in ireland about 2 weeks ago and people were talking about it on the news etc, It was forecasted that we would have "lying snow within weeks". I think its a load of tripe ,maybe it could be a cold October, but the best we would get is a bit of frost with most of any snow confined to the hills.

[A Winter's Tale]

I have yet to see my first October snowfall ever.

We had our major cold spells in Feb (2009), Dec/Jan (2009/2010), Nov/Dec (2010) and how about (Oct/Nov 2011).

As we have seen in recent months is that northern blocking is quite consistent and regular. A perfect set up during October with northerly winds over the UK for more than a week could lead to a pretty notable snowfall. I believe that it will snow in October, except it will only be confined to places such as Aviemore.

[Guest]

they are a bit conservative but they do lean towards a colder winter. also they do go out to 5 months so at this stage they are just speculation

You never know - we might have a BBQ Christmas

[Snowstorm1]

Here is a 100% accurate prediction for winter

Some weather will occur in winter it could be snow it could be rain also it could also be mild and it might be cold, it might be windy or it might be calm

Edited September 20, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Guest]

Here is a 100% accurate prediction for winter

Some weather will occur in winter it could be snow it could be rain also it could also be mild and it might be cold, it might be windy or it might be calm

What about fog?

[Snowstorm1]

What about fog?

That may happen also and anything else is also a distinct possibility

Edited September 20, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Weather-history]

You never know - we might have a BBQ Christmas

Who the hell has a BBQ at Christmas time in this country? We struggle to have BBQs during the summer season!

[Aaron]

Weather will occur. That's all I know.

[DAVID SNOW]

Who the hell has a BBQ at Christmas time in this country? We struggle to have BBQs during the summer season!

I Do.

[johnholmes]

I have yet to see my first October snowfall ever.

We had our major cold spells in Feb (2009), Dec/Jan (2009/2010), Nov/Dec (2010) and how about (Oct/Nov 2011).

As we have seen in recent months is that northern blocking is quite consistent and regular. A perfect set up during October with northerly winds over the UK for more than a week could lead to a pretty notable snowfall. I believe that it will snow in October, except it will only be confined to places such as Aviemore.

I am almost 60 years older than you and have yet to see snowfall in October!

[sundog]

I had a few light snow showers in oct 2008 but thats the only snow ive ever seen falling in oct at low levels apart from some wet snow.

Edited September 20, 2011 by sundog

[Norrance]

Quite a few places up and down the country had snow in late October 2008. Nothing significant but there was even a flurry or two here and some lying snow to low levels inland. Nothing very significant though.

Did London not have it's first October snow for many years also?

[syed78]

october 28th 2008 it rained during the morning and in the afternoon the rain turned to snow in birmingham.

[sundog]

This is from Joe B's site Weatherbell.

by WeatherBell Admin

Since last winter, WeatherBELL Analytics Chief Forecasters Joe laminate floori and Joe D’Aleo warned the ‘super’ La Niña of 2010/11 would have major implications. The company focused correctly weeks to months in advance of the potential of strong tornado outbreaks, devastating flooding from late snowmelt and heavy rain in the central states, growing drought and heat in Texas and an impact hurricane season with East Coast and Gulf coast landfalls likely.

WeatherBELL Analytics also predicted that the La Niña would weaken, but return for a second winter. This was based on a cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which usually means La Niñas last two years or more. NOAA officially came onboard on August to the idea of a return of the La Niña.

WeatherBELL Analytics sees the impact of this return La Niña to again be global in nature and quite significant. Another harsh winter is expected in China in addition to at least the first half of the winter in North America and Western Europe. More heavy snow will accompany the cold as the WeatherBELL Analytics winter outlook will show next week.

With widespread cooling, WeatherBell Analytics Meteorologists Joe laminate floori and Joe D‘Aleo are predicting that the global temperature, which has averaged near 0.2C above normal this year after being over 0.4C above normal last year, will drop to near -0.15C below normal by March, similar to the temperatures seen in 2008. This will mean the yearly cooling trend off the warm year of 2010, which is underway now, will continue in 2012, which is likely to be the coolest year since the late 1990s.

Computer modeling is now starting to see this as well. The JAMSTEC Frontier model captures the cooling for both hemispheres this December to February. Most of that southeast United States warmth would come in late winter.

[Polar Bear]

Hi all I Thought I'd check out what you were all saying after someone posted the article on potential snow in October on Facebook . Think it was quoted above and I believe it was an aol site. I don't know to post it using iPhone but what i wanted to query was it mentioned netweather. So thought I'd check with you guys and see what was going on. I feel clutching at straws are apparent. I remain unconvinced.

[yukichon]

Don't know is it has any relevance at all but if nature is anything to go by, my berry bushes/trees and my hazelnut tree in my garden have all produced much more fruits and nuts than I have ever seen before this year??

[Aaron]

I don't recall any snow in October 2008. Was cold though.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Don't know is it has any relevance at all but if nature is anything to go by, my berry bushes/trees and my hazelnut tree in my garden have all produced much more fruits and nuts than I have ever seen before this year??

That's the response of your fruit/nut bushes/trees to last winter, not a forecast for this winter. Nature doesn't do long-range forecasts!

Edited September 20, 2011 by crepuscular ray