Winter 2011/2012

[johnholmes]

leave it.....!

a sensible comment and as cr has just commented can we please get back on topic.

This used to be a friendly forum it tends to be less so recently-very sad.

The topic is supposed to be winter 2011-2012. Make your own comments about what you think may happen, better if you can give a reason unless you just wish to do a hope predict, perfectly acceptable if you do, but lay off the personal comments folks.

My own idea of the coming winter-I have no idea and never have been able to attempt to predict more than 1 month in advance.

[Aaron]

Oh gawd, all I did was ask BFTP to explain one term and provide a link.

This is now getting completely off topic and unpleasant. I'm sorry that I provoked a debate that has become extremely personal: I may not agree with what BFTP posts or his methods, but I did not intend to provoke denigration of his integrity, let alone a childish squabble.

BACK ON TOPIC, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!

I see what you're doing but you seem to question everything and everyone, it doesn't really affect you whether or not someone's LRF is accurate or not, you can simply ignore it and let the masses believe what they want!

(the last on that, I promise!)

--------------------

Anyway, we better hope 2011/2012 is a good 'un because we're not gonna be around to experience 2012/2013

[bobbydog]

meanwhile, back to winter!

[scotty_boy_winter]

Thank god!

All I did was ask someone to back up there comment with science like the previous postee.

Not personal really?

Just challenging science of a winter forecast which is healthy as it drives the quality of forecasting on the site

It's got way too personal and childish

meanwhile, back to winter!

My challenge to that statement is prove the cycle even exists?

Sorry mate but I've seen you on a few threads now and it seems to me that you are going out of your way to make trouble. If you're so clever, how about you compile a winter forecast for us please, seeing as BFTP doesn't do a good enough job of it. If you go on the BBC say we're going to have warm spell, do you expect them to back it up with a 100 page dossier on it? No. I can assure you BFTP knows more about weather than you do, and given that he gives up his time to write up a forecast for us should be praised.

"The perturbation cycle is maintaining a prevalent -ve NAO state and with oceans in cool state widespread NH cold is likely". Is that not "scientific" enough for you because it hardly oozes of misunderstanding.

[summer blizzard]

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

PDO data is in and shows that after the third most negative July on record, August was the second most negative (the most negative being 1955 which led to the sub-zero feb).

Anologues for the July-August period are...

2001

1984

1978

1971

1962

1961

1955

1952

1950

1978, 1962 and 1955. The PDO may do us a big favour this winter.

No matching anologues with the PDO and QBO but there are matches with the MEI and PDO, so the Pacific is definitely controlling the pattern at the moment..

1984

1961

1955

Looking at what we got from them October-December we see..

October

1955 - 9.2C

1961 - 10.9

1984 - 11.1

November

1955 - 7.0

1961 - 6.0

1984 - 8.0

December

1955 - 5.4

1961 - 2.2

1984 - 5.2

All three had winters that were categorised as cold overall and i believe all three were dry.

Edited September 22, 2011 by summer blizzard

[snowlover2009]

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

PDO data is in and shows that after the third most negative July on record, August was the second most negative (the most negative being 1955 which led to the sub-zero feb).

Anologues for the July-August period are...

2001

1984

1978

1971

1962

1961

1955

1952

1950

1978, 1962 and 1955. The PDO may do us a big favour this winter.

Very good analogues there and this autumn and potential dry and mild/warm october which looks pretty likely to me, is really starting to give me a lot of hope for this coming winter.

[ZONE 51]

People on here have been talking about cold and snow in October, which is pretty ironic considering that models are predicting a very warm spell of weather coming up. However i've heard others mention that cold winters are often preceded by warm settled (or at least partly) October's. I think some good examples of this are perhaps 1962, early 1985 and 1995 (might not be right on these years).

it can turn quite cold after warm days with clear nights, but for cold days to then we would need to be having the right high, i think later in the month is when its going to get colder, warm days cold nights leading to later some colder days.

At the moment I think we will see an Indian Summer and very little in the way of wintryness.

However I believe this could be good for a cold and snowy weather. Leave the best of the mild and warm weather in October (and November) rather than the winter months. Also, this should keep the north sea pretty warm and I believe (like previous winters) that we will see a notable cold spell following a period of an active atlantic/mild spell. With the North Sea quite warm, under a strong easterly wind, this should create some amazing snowfalls and in my opinion, if we are going to have a severe cold spell this winter then it would better take place between late November and Late December to get the really big snowfalls.

very good point! the warmer sea/land temperature difference would be better for convective snowfall, some might say a warmer North sea would mean a less bitter wind, but its the snowfall were after so anyone bothered about the less cold wind? if the convection is more powerfull due to sea/land temps greater differences then that would make it colder anyway due to the heavy snowfall what would chill the air anyway. Edited September 23, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

Very good point by A Winter's Tale.. cold places in northern Canada always receive their heaviest snowfalls when the waters are warmest in winter (typically November) and is the reason why places like Stockholm and Helsinki got 60 cm + level snow in December last year.

[Teesdale]

I'm curious as to how many snow lying days we will get this winter here in Durham.

Last time round:

October - 0

November - 6

December - 22 AFAIK

January - 0 AFAIK

February - 0

March - 0

April - 0

I recorded some snow showers early on the morning of the 8th of November, 17 days before the first snow lying day. It was about 730 to 750 in the morning in Gateshead - marvellous

Darn crazy that 2011 is snowless so far here! I'd hope TWS or PP, paul tall and the rest can back me up, because I don't seem to remember any snow falling or lying after Dec 27th?

Aaron - usually that is the case, but under:

A) a milder, or windier SWly

a humid, warn Sly with HP far to the east (Germany, Scandi etc.)

Then the flow should keep temps up. If we get HP covering E England it could make for cooler nights, but if we pump in humid southerlies with hp too far east to ridge or connect, 15C lows widespread are likely.

A mild start to winter 2011/12 could lead to 2011 being one of the most snowless years. Hopefully this coming winter will more balanced, not much snow after Dec 3rd here last year.

Edited September 23, 2011 by Teesdale

[Snowstorm1]

I'm curious as to how many snow lying days we will get this winter here in Durham.

Last time round:

October - 0

November - 6

December - 22 AFAIK

January - 0 AFAIK

February - 0

March - 0

April - 0

I recorded some snow showers early on the morning of the 8th of November, 17 days before the first snow lying day. It was about 730 to 750 in the morning in Gateshead - marvellous

Darn crazy that 2011 is snowless so far here! I'd hope TWS or PP, paul tall and the rest can back me up, because I don't seem to remember any snow falling or lying after Dec 27th?

Aaron - usually that is the case, but under:

A) a milder, or windier SWly

a humid, warn Sly with HP far to the east (Germany, Scandi etc.)

Then the flow should keep temps up. If we get HP covering E England it could make for cooler nights, but if we pump in humid southerlies with hp too far east to ridge or connect, 15C lows widespread are likely.

Actually I seem to remember a short period of snow on a early in the month of January night around 11pm but by next morning it was gone that's my last memory of snow from last winter

Edited September 23, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Isolated Frost]

Actually I seem to remember a short period of snow on a early in the month of January night around 11pm but by next morning it was gone that's my last memory of snow from last winter

I don't think it would count, as it wasn't lying at 9am?

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.netweathe...ction=nwdc;sess= At the very end of the 850pha run you can see the -5c line reaching Shetland for the first time.

But it's long, long way off so I highly expect it not to happen.

Edited September 23, 2011 by A Winter's Tale

[weatherguy]

http://www.netweathe...ction=nwdc;sess= At the very end of the 850pha run you can see the -5c line reaching Shetland for the first time.

But it's long, long way off so I highly expect it not to happen.

Indeed, good indication that winter is getting closer though

[damianslaw]

Just four posts in this thread, compared to a few days ago when we were seeing a couple of pages a day.. I wonder if the prospects of very warm weather are having an affect on people's thoughts.. Expect this thread to be very quiet for a few days, but then quickly liven up again once the warm weather fades away..

[Robbie Garrett]

Didn't the temperature shear of last October/November really quickly? i.e high pressure over the UK, fairly warm?

[ZONE 51]

Just four posts in this thread, compared to a few days ago when we were seeing a couple of pages a day.. I wonder if the prospects of very warm weather are having an affect on people's thoughts.. Expect this thread to be very quiet for a few days, but then quickly liven up again once the warm weather fades away..

Its going to be mayhem when the models start cooling things down! this very warm or hot spell is going to make some think a mild winter is on its way! Edited September 24, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Methuselah]

Tbh, I don't think that a warm spell now will make anyone (apart from those in the media, that is) will make anyone 'expect' anything...

[Robbie Garrett]

So long that I can finish my license by Winter, I am happy.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I personally think a bit of an Indian Summer is good thing if you are wanting a cold winter. I am fairly sure that the past two or three (if not more) Septembers have all had a noticeable warm period and we all know how the Winters that followed these were.

I am too young to have experienced the great Winters of 47 and 62/63 but despite all the chaos it would cause, I would love too. Last year was probably the best Winter I have lived though and to have snow on the ground in Nottingham for a month is very rare indeed. Hoping for a cold and snowy one and believe we will get one

[karyo]

I personally think a bit of an Indian Summer is good thing if you are wanting a cold winter. I am fairly sure that the past two or three (if not more) Septembers have all had a noticeable warm period and we all know how the Winters that followed these were.

I am too young to have experienced the great Winters of 47 and 62/63 but despite all the chaos it would cause, I would love too. Last year was probably the best Winter I have lived though and to have snow on the ground in Nottingham for a month is very rare indeed. Hoping for a cold and snowy one and believe we will get one

Yes, but the aytumn of 2006 was awfully mild/warm and was followed by an awfully mild winter! Just saying...

Karyo

[AderynCoch]

This may sound controversial, but perhaps there's no link at all between an Indian summer and the following winter?

[MP-R]

This may sound controversial, but perhaps there's no link at all between an Indian summer and the following winter?

Quite right. I think the duration of warmth may be an indicator but not the presence of it. What I mean is - October 2006 was consistently warm and the winter following was a write-off. October 2009 had 2 warm spells at intervals and the winter that followed was cold. 2009 was the best progression through autumn into winter I can remember.

[bobbydog]

This may sound controversial, but perhaps there's no link at all between an Indian summer and the following winter?

exactly. one or two weeks of any particular kind of weather in an area the size of the uk, makes absolutely no difference to the overall seasonal weather, 2 to 5 months later, in the whole of europe.

people have tried many times, using many different years of comparison to find a pattern in the weather which they can use to predict it.

it does not work.

think of the yearly weather as a snowflake.

we know it will be a six pointed star with pretty shapes but every one is unique.

Edited September 24, 2011 by bobbydog

[Weather-history]

I personally think a bit of an Indian Summer is good thing if you are wanting a cold winter. I am fairly sure that the past two or three (if not more) Septembers have all had a noticeable warm period and we all know how the Winters that followed these were.

A lot of the Septembers of the last 20 years have had notable warm spells but a lot of the following winters were nothing to write home about as regards to wintriness.

[stewfox]

People on here have been talking about cold and snow in October, which is pretty ironic considering that models are predicting a very warm spell of weather coming up. However i've heard others mention that cold winters are often preceded by warm settled (or at least partly) October's. I think some good examples of this are perhaps 1962, early 1985 and 1995 (might not be right on these years).

And Vice versa, 350 + years of CET have never as yet suggested any 'correlation' bewteen what happens in october links to the following winter.

Ps the warm spell is end september early october any chance of snow would be end October.

I remember as a student at Ports Poly walking around in a tee shirt in oct 1985. A very warm first week of October.

The 1980s did prodcuce a number of warm octobers including, 1986 , 89 and we know how Jan 1987 turned out but there has been as far as Im aware no hint of any sigificant correlation.

Edited September 24, 2011 by stewfox