Winter 2011/2012

[bobbydog]

I think we are in for a very dry winter or a very wet very mild winter, it seems weather patterns have reverted back to warm like in 88/89.

Always a chance of a dry and cold winter but for real cold HP might be too stuck to our southeast over southern france with similar patterns to this upcoming week with potential for max date records to be smashed in places.

the weather right now has no bearing on the weather 3 months or more away

[karyo]

heres a link to all the info you need

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html

Thank you!

It looks ok, no forecast for strong La Nina!

Karyo

Edited September 26, 2011 by karyo

[summer blizzard]

So then, according to this link: http://meteora.ucsd....o/pictures.html

we are in for near neutral ENSO conditions, with a weak La Nina looking likely.

Perhaps this is good news for a cold winter?

Why is the CFS predicting a La Nina of -1 or stronger, are the members of this forum in current belief that this is unlikely and the CFS is going OTT with a moderate La Nina?

The build up to this winter season and through the summer so far shows neutral ENSO conditions, when this time last year we were already in La Nina territory (weak, trending moderate). The lag time effect of which turned January 2011 average and Feb 2011 above average temp wise.

Navigate to bottom of chart to read 2010 ENSO values : http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml

People believe that this was the reason for out severe 'short winter' which really came at the end of november to Christmas then faded away, rather than extending through the rest of the months.

With conditions neutral at present, unlike La Nina conditions this time last year, and the forecast for the continuation of near-neutral enso conditions until at least late Dec 11/early Jan 12, this can only be good news for cold in my opinion.

La Nina will almost certainly be weak/moderate this winter officially. MEI values are alsready in weak La Nina territory although the official line takes into account tri-monthly values which is why they still say neutral.

La Nina will we weak/moderate and strengthening this year through winter.

[karyo]

La Nina will almost certainly be weak/moderate this winter officially. MEI values are alsready in weak La Nina territory although the official line takes into account tri-monthly values which is why they still say neutral.

La Nina will we weak/moderate and strengthening this year through winter.

That's better than last winter so at this stage, I'll happilly settle with that!

Karyo

[summer blizzard]

That's better than last winter so at this stage, I'll happilly settle with that!

Karyo

A strong La Nina is not actually that bad, what ruined last winter was a +QBO strengthening which meant that once La Nina weakened in early winter, we saw the initial surge in GLAMM readings causing quite a -AO and associated cold but the surge never really stopped and the AO went very positive.

This winter will see a -QBO and La Nina which should mean very low GLAMM readings (a stuck pattern if you will) and anologues suggest that we will be stuck negative during December and January. That said, Glacier Point thinks the opposite.

[cheeky_monkey]

im still not convinced la nina plays any major role in the UK winter weather..so whether its is strong weak or meduim it has little bearing on how the winter will play out.

[summer blizzard]

im still not convinced la nina plays any major role in the UK winter weather..so whether its is strong weak or meduim it has little bearing on how the winter will play out.

Personally i believe that it is a combination of the ENSO state and QBO which are most dominant with the PDO/AMO being the secondary teleconnections which then impact the AO.

In my opinion, all four look good for this winter.

[Robbie Garrett]

I can hardly believe we wont see any snowfall this Winter Cycle, looking at the last few years it would be very odd not to see any of the white stuff. Last winter was fricking freezing, if it's anything like last year I wanna buy some wellingtons.

[A Winter's Tale]

Top 5 Warmest Octobers and the Winter that Followed:

Oct 2001 (12.2) - Nov 2001 (6. - Dec 2001 (3.1) - Jan 2002 (5.0) - Feb 2002 (5.5) [4.53]

Oct 1969 (11. - Nov 1969 (4.0) - Dec 1969 (2. - Jan 1970 (3.0) - Feb 1970 (1. [2.55]

2006....

2005.....

Oct 1995 (11.6) - Nov 1995 (6.9) - Dec 1995 (1.7) - Jan 1996 (3.9) - Feb (2.0) [2.53]

November 1969 (4.0), December 1995 (1.75), January 1970 (3.0), Febuary 1970 (1. = cold winter

Winter 1995/1996 and 1969/1970 were cold winters. 2001/2002 had it's moments however 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 were particulary mild.

So there is no consistency with mild or cold winters following warm Octobers.

Top 5 Warmest Octobers and the Winter that Followed:

Oct 2001 (12.2) - Nov 2001 (6. - Dec 2001 (3.1) - Jan 2002 (5.0) - Feb 2002 (5.5) [4.53]

Oct 1969 (11. - Nov 1969 (4.0) - Dec 1969 (2. - Jan 1970 (3.0) - Feb 1970 (1. [2.55]

2006....

2005.....

Oct 1995 (11.6) - Nov 1995 (6.9) - Dec 1995 (1.7) - Jan 1996 (3.9) - Feb (2.0) [2.53]

November 1969 (4.0), December 1995 (1.75), January 1970 (3.0), Febuary 1970 (1. = cold winter

Winter 1995/1996 and 1969/1970 were cold winters. 2001/2002 had it's moments however 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 were particulary mild.

So there is no consistency with mild or cold winters following warm Octobers.

Not so sure about the smileys!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

0n the ecmwf model, I would say the wednesday night looks frosty, northerly toppler setup

[Daniel Miller]

http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

Update from James Madden.

If your looking for the best of the snow and cold well head to the North and East between November and December as his forecast has great emphasis of winter weather in the north and east.

That says North and WEST, not East :/ I do hope he's right though As most do..

[TEITS]

That says North and WEST, not East :/ I do hope he's right though As most do..

The forecast mentions areas such as Wales, NW England. Now this obviously suggests frequent NW,lys. If this is what he is suggesting then its very unlikely that temps, snowfall records will be broken. The historic winters clearly show that extreme winters i.e 47, 63 have an E,ly element whether this is a NE,ly/ENE,E,ly.

[summer blizzard]

Top 5 Warmest Octobers and the Winter that Followed:

Oct 2001 (12.2) - Nov 2001 (6. - Dec 2001 (3.1) - Jan 2002 (5.0) - Feb 2002 (5.5) [4.53]

Oct 1969 (11. - Nov 1969 (4.0) - Dec 1969 (2. - Jan 1970 (3.0) - Feb 1970 (1. [2.55]

2006....

2005.....

Oct 1995 (11.6) - Nov 1995 (6.9) - Dec 1995 (1.7) - Jan 1996 (3.9) - Feb (2.0) [2.53]

November 1969 (4.0), December 1995 (1.75), January 1970 (3.0), Febuary 1970 (1. = cold winter

Winter 1995/1996 and 1969/1970 were cold winters. 2001/2002 had it's moments however 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 were particulary mild.

So there is no consistency with mild or cold winters following warm Octobers.

Not so sure about the smileys!!!

Winter 2005/2006 was the coldest since 1997 and a full 0.5C below the 1971-2000 average (colder than 2001), just very dry.

So in actual fact you have 2 cold, 2 average (historically) and 1 of the warmest on record.

[Aaron]

The forecast mentions areas such as Wales, NW England. Now this obviously suggests frequent NW,lys. If this is what he is suggesting then its very unlikely that temps, snowfall records will be broken. The historic winters clearly show that extreme winters i.e 47, 63 have an E,ly element whether this is a NE,ly/ENE,E,ly.

Well there was a beast of a NWly in late December last year which brought cold air from the north-east of Canada, so maybe not record breaking temperatures but cold.. little snow us east of the Pennines though.. so I hope he's wrong!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Winter 2005/2006 was the coldest since 1997 and a full 0.5C below the 1971-2000 average (colder than 2001), just very dry.

So in actual fact you have 2 cold, 2 average (historically) and 1 of the warmest on record.

Winter 2005-06 had a CET of 4.13*C; it was about equal to the 1961-90 average, but around 0.3-0.4 below the 1971-2000 mean.

[cheeky_monkey]

Winter 2005/2006 was the coldest since 1997 and a full 0.5C below the 1971-2000 average (colder than 2001), just very dry.

So in actual fact you have 2 cold, 2 average (historically) and 1 of the warmest on record.

I would definetly bump 2001/2 into the mild catergory for sure..it was cold around chrimbo..thereafter winter was wet and mild..2005/6..was average and dry.

[Daniel Miller]

The forecast mentions areas such as Wales, NW England. Now this obviously suggests frequent NW,lys. If this is what he is suggesting then its very unlikely that temps, snowfall records will be broken. The historic winters clearly show that extreme winters i.e 47, 63 have an E,ly element whether this is a NE,ly/ENE,E,ly.

I agree, just saying that forecast said West was best

Can you help me out because I'm struggling to understand why we wouldn't get more snow from NW as there is a bigger body of water to cover? :S

As mentioned, the NW'ly that came last year was great, as it dumped around12-16 inches where I live!

What would be the best setup for countrywide heavy snow and cold as it seems to be, with snow, only East or only West, not both.

Edited September 27, 2011 by Daniel Miller

[Isolated Frost]

I agree, just saying that forecast said West was best

Can you help me out because I'm struggling to understand why we wouldn't get more snow from NW as there is a bigger body of water to cover? :S

As mentioned, the NW'ly that came last year was great, as it dumped around12-16 inches where I live!

What would be the best setup for countrywide heavy snow and cold as it seems to be, with snow, only East or only West, not both.

Possibly a battleground with cold easterlies giving convective showers to the east, and atlantic lp moving from the west with heavy precipitation, falling as snow against the cold air, mainly in W/SW England and Wales

[Bristawl Si]

Possibly a battleground with cold easterlies giving convective showers to the east, and atlantic lp moving from the west with heavy precipitation, falling as snow against the cold air, mainly in W/SW England and Wales

That'll do if it happens!

I'm not sure anyone can predict today what will happen in December, January & February weatherwise.

I haven't got a clue myself - my only take on looking to this Winter is that the last 3 winters have had some noticeably longer cold & snowy spells compared to the early noughties and 90s, so by my own law of averages (no scientific input here ) to get a 4th one in a row would be pushing it IMO.

Therefore that means by my own weird sort of analysis we will get a mild, wet winter with v little snow here in Bristol.

Not a prediction, just a hunch.

In my lifetime the best set of winters for cold and snow were between 1978 and 1987 - even during that period we had mild, snowless winters.

[penicuikblizz]

My feeling is after all this hype in media about a freezing winter it is bound to be mild, law of averages would suggest a good chance of a average to mild winter this year!!!

[North-Easterly Blast]

That'll do if it happens!

I'm not sure anyone can predict today what will happen in December, January & February weatherwise.

I haven't got a clue myself - my only take on looking to this Winter is that the last 3 winters have had some noticeably longer cold & snowy spells compared to the early noughties and 90s, so by my own law of averages (no scientific input here ) to get a 4th one in a row would be pushing it IMO.

Therefore that means by my own weird sort of analysis we will get a mild, wet winter with v little snow here in Bristol.

Not a prediction, just a hunch.

In my lifetime the best set of winters for cold and snow were between 1978 and 1987 - even during that period we had mild, snowless winters.

The period from 1976-77 to 1986-87 was a great run for cold winters - in those 11 years the winter CET averaged 3.5*C - although this is slightly less remarkable than the other opposite extreme, where the 21 winters from 1987-88 to 2007-08 averaged 5.0*C. As you say that the 1978-87 period had mild, snowless winters, I will say that even the milder ones in that period wern't all that mild by 1990s and 2000s standards. As well, in the 1978-87 period, winters 1981-82, 1984-85 and 1985-86 may have had notable cold spells, but these were also interrupted by milder periods and contained one month that wasn't below average.

[damianslaw]

My advice is simply ignore any 'media forecasts' - they are a complete waste of time - headlines are 'sensationalist' by nature and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

I will be pleasantly surprised if winter 2011/12 starts in similiar veing to winter 2010/11 which was 'exceptional', however, just because we have seen three winters with notable cold and snowy weather (but not throughout it has to be said - last winter saw a very mild Feb and preety average fairly snowless Jan), doesn't mean we are guaranteed a mild wet winter. Look at out last five summers, all have returned very near or below average CET's with no very warmth month. Mind you we are overdue a notably wet winter, not really had one since 2004/2005, instead we have some very dry months and lengthy dry spells in the main - had we not endured the wet summers, we would be currently under a very lengthy dry spell indeed.

[sundog]

Mind you we are overdue a notably wet winter, not really had one since 2004/2005

Would winter 2006/2007 not be considered a notably wet winter? I know it was notable for being very mild but it was a winter dominated by the Atlantic. First half of Dec was a washout for example.

Edited September 27, 2011 by sundog

[damianslaw]

Would winter 2006/2007 not be considered a notably wet winter? I know it was notable for being very mild but it was a winter dominated by the Atlantic,Dec 2006 was a washout especially the first half for example.

Yes my memories of winter 2006/2007 are clouded by judgement of conditions in Newcastle where I was living at the time. Yes you are right it was an atlantic dominated month, however, a good chunk of dec 2006 was exceptionally dry with a 2 week high pressure scenario sandwiched inbetween two very wet spells - these cancelling out the very dry period. Jan 07 was very mild and wet with storms - a miserable month, and feb 2007 was a weaker version. So yes sorry I should have referenced this winter. Still the last four winters have been preety dry (exception Feb 09 in some parts - snow variety, and Jan 08), winter 05/06 was also a very dry one.

[Aaron]

2007/2008 was a very wet winter here, January 2008 especially wet with severe flooding in the centre of Leeds after 149 mm of rain fell.. so we are definitely not overdue a wet winter here..